ARG NH Poll has sobering news

By Aziz P. -
It's been clear from all recent polls that Dean clobbers the other Democratic candidates in NH, but the latest ARG poll in NH shows that the general election is going to be a tough fight:

If next year's Presidential election were being held today, who would you be more likely to vote for - Republican George W. Bush or the nominee of the Democratic Party?

Bush 51% (50%)
Democrat 34% (36%)
Undecided 15% (14%)

What if the election for president were between George W. Bush, the Republican, and Howard Dean, the Democrat, for whom would you vote - Bush or Dean? (names rotated)

Bush 57%
Dean 30%
Undecided 13%


numbers in parenthesis are from September, and margin eof error is 4.6%. For the generic Democrat question, the partisan support is polarized, but the independent voters favor Bush by a slightly smaller margin of 47% to 32%. On the specific Bush-Dean matchup, the undeclared voters still support Bush by a wide margin, 63% to 11%. Proof that New Hampshire is hardly Democratic territory - and remember, this state went to Bush in 2000. Had Gore won NH, he'd be President.

Of course, the results of the poll will be spun by the ABD camp to argue that Dean is unelectable, but one has to wonder how their favored candidate would fare. From the Dean vs. other Dem matchups, we can likely infer that Bush vs Specific Non Dean candidate would be a much much worse margin.

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