Showing posts from January, 2004

Trippi Still Working After NH Concession Speech

What a warrior.

It's a Ground War

The bat is still swinging, but the campaign doesn't have the money for an air war in the next seven states. To pick up delegates, we need a ground war from the grassroots. The grassroots built this campaign, and they can do it again, this weekend - help show that you still support Howard Dean. Pick a pre-designed sign or easily create your own:


What makes Roy Neel so confident Howard Dean can come back? First, there is us. We may not be able to win a primary by ourselves, but we can certainly keep Dr. Dean from meeting Howard's End. With $1.4 million on the bat, with thousands of activists in every February 3 state, we may not win any but we won't be shut out of delegates. Second, there is the math facing General Clark, and Senator Edwards. They're from the South, they have to do well there. If the Massachusetts Senator smokes them in places like Oklahoma, Arizona and South Carolina, their funds are going to dry up faster than water on a hot griddle. At that point, he expects, the networks will point at Sharpton, Lieberman and Kucinich, then point to the door. (If Clark or Edwards pulls a surprise Tuesday, by the way, good for our side, because it slows Kerry's mometum.) Third, of course, Neel is aiming for the small table. That's where the late debates are often held, around a small table. Even i

Roy's Mis-speak

I get what Roy Neel is saying. We don't have to win Tuesday. We don't even have to win the following Saturday. If we just hang around, picking up delegates where we can, and saving all that money coming in off the bat, we can get Kerry all alone, starting around Wisconsin, and most delegates will still be unchosen. In other words, we're to become the "anti-Kerry." Fine. Good. Wonderful. But does he have to put it this way: we have elected to not buy television advertisements in February 3 states, but instead direct our resources toward the February 7 and 8 contests in Michigan, Washington and Maine. We may not win any February 3 state, but even third place finishes will allow us to move forward, continue to amass delegates in Virginia and Tennessee on February 10, and then strongly challenge Kerry in Wisconsin. When he could just as easily have put it this way: We have decided to fully empower our grassroots supporters through Feb

The Misunderstanding of Judy Dean

For those who haven't seen this, Gersh Kuntzman over at Newsweek/MSNBC writes a very complimentary article on Judith Steinberg Dean. It's just one more reason I have so much respect for both Howard and Judith Steinberg Dean. When I read this, I thought "finally, somebody gets it." This isn't some sort of slick media play to attract points. Howard and Judy are real people. Vermonters know this and understand who they are - I think many of the people who have become involved in this campaign appreciate a "real person" running for president. Howard and Judy Dean are certainly real people - good and bad together. Capable of doing great things, and capable of making mistakes and moving on. I'm tired of demanding "the right look" for president. I want a President and First Lady with substance and self-awareness. I thought this article just reflected so well on Judy - and it says something positive about Howard's character that he picked s

The Biggest Bush Fraud Of All

Time out for an issue vital to the 2004 Electoral Finals, namely the economy. The Bush Administration claims everything is lovely. They base this on two quarters’ GDP growth, which itself is based heavily on rising stock prices. Prices are up from a year ago, as much as 20%. But the fact that is being hidden is that the value of the dollar is also down, by an equa l (sometimes greater ) amount. This does not just mean a European vacation is out of the question. It also means that foreign investments in our economy are, despite the rising stock market, actually falling in value. Japanese, Chinese, Arab, and European investors are all losing money on their dollar investments. Now consider that both our trade and budget deficits are largely funded by foreigners. China’s purchases of dollars are the biggest “seller financing” deal of all time. (We get stuff, they get dollars, they don’t change those dollars into Chinese currency.) It won’t continue if the value of those dollars

Diane Sawyer Gets Religion

A quick post -- courtesy of John and Tom on the Zonkboard -- about Diane Sawyer's recent (yesterday) review of the media's treatment of the "I Have a Scream" speech. In short, Diane gets many network bigwigs to admit that they blew it way out of proportion and didn't put the speech in context -- i.e. Dean had to shout to be heard over the roar of 3000+ supporters. A fact that many of us who were there, including many reporters, knew all along. A rare case indeed to have the mainstream media admit they made a big blunder. Perhaps we should write this date on our calendars... Read the story here ; watch the segment here .

February 3 Is Up To Us

I wish Roy Neel had said this more explicitly. But the message seems clear to me nonetheless, and it should be clear to you. The Dean campaign is going to put its ad money into the February 7 states with the most delegates. February 3 belongs to the grassroots. I know we "failed" in Iowa, and in New Hampshire. But I have a theory on that. We were too thick on the ground. We tried too hard. We put too many chips on "red" and, when we didn't win outright, we looked like losers. Not just Dean. But Dean Nation. Well this weekend is our chance for redemption. If you live in Missouri, Arizona, New Mexico, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Delaware, or North Dakota, we are all depending on you this weekend. The Web site has the tools. Voting has begun in most of those states. You can be bringing people to the polls NOW. You can be distributing literature, you can be launching phone trees, you can be e-mailing links to things like Common Sense You can eve

Daily Review

Transcript: Democratic Candidates Debate in South Carolina Kerry not unstoppable, analysts say The Dead Center Gwen Ifill speaks with former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean Howard Dean is visiting Michigan Democrats vow to roll back Bush tax cuts

Face Facts

Let us face some facts. 1). This race is not over. 2). Even if Dean loses the nod, our movement is not over. 3). If indeed Dean loses the nod, we, WE, must keep this movement alive. 4). If Kerry gets the nod, his first test of leadership is to bring us in. I predict he might fail -- but if that happens (and I think we still could win -- and will, I pray) I hope he is successful. However, I doubt his leadership. Despite his Vietnam record, this man is a whiny coward (in my view) and that concerns me -- greatly. Much. 5). If, somehow, we do not get the nod (and we may not) I beg of thee -- we must, at all costs, keep this movement alive. We ARE the... Fiscally Responsible Progressive Wing of the Democratic Party And yes, Kerry-Heinz, I'll consider leaving ya'll behind -- yes, an unswaying stalwart Dem like me....will do nothing more than vote for you -- you want us Dean folks to lift a finger for you? Overture, overture, again......make it good. Overture,

Trippi Interview

Joe Trippi will be interviewed by Deborah Norville tonight at 9 pm EST on MSNBC. UPDATE (Matt): Trippi will also be on Hardball tomorrow night. It should be noted in the Governor's post on the O-Blog that he hoped Trippi will later decide to return to the campaign as a strategic advisor. UPDATE (Matt): Elegant, classy, honest, all around wonderful. Trippi says, "I love the grassroots," he still called the movement "we," he was clearly emotional about leaving but not at all bitter. He still says he firmly believes Dean will win and that this campaign is the nation's "last chance" to get things right. I remember the nights in the early campaign when I would get personal e-mails from Joe. I was amazed how someone in his position would actually respond to my individual thoughts. He impressed me so much then; he continues to impress me now.

Open Thread: SC Debate

Go nuts... Here's hoping for a turnaround...

Grassroots Reacts to Changes @ DFA

Just in case folks missed it, DN's own Anna Brosovic, along with Colorado Deaner Tony Thompson, appeared on WBUR Radio's "Here & Now" earlier today. WBUR is the flagship NPR news station in Boston. Here's the link . (Click on the LISTEN button -- segment begins about 4:30 minutes in). Way to get media in Kerryland, guys -- and excellent job!

media visibility crusade - on the cheap

Here is how Dean can immediately get exposure in the Feb 3rd states without expensive ad buys: get on local talk radio. His Hannity appearance was excellent, and I heard he appeared on Hannity's TV show with Colmes last night to follow up. Deliberately target conservative media - that makes Dean look unafraid to challenge the right wing and also gets him broader access. Plus what other candidate is sticking it to the wingnuts? Certainly not Mr. Front Runner. Target national daytime television . Someone suggested Oprah (with both Howard and Judy!), other good avenues are Rosie O'Donnell and the Wayne Brady show. Lots of undecided voters are captive audiences at home during the day, and an informal apearance can give him a chance to make an appeal based on his record of accomplishment. It's those ordinary people watching TV at home that disproportionately are feeling the pain of the Bush economy and are wondering what these Democrats are doing for them. Stump in South

get Jesse Jackson and Al Gore to South Carolina with Dean

We need to be visible in South Carolina - and Gore and Jackson need to pull their weight. We don't need to win SC, but we MUST show up. Dean is the oinly candidate with a credible claim to appeal to the black vote, but repudiating SC will send the wrong symbolic message. Discuss. UPDATE: and of course, get Bill Bradley out there in Michigan! Where are the endorsers?!

General McClellan

A reporter called me to ask about Trippi. It’s part of the “picking of the bones” process. While we were talking an analogy occurred to me, from the first Civil War. (I credit Vietnam as the second.) It came in historian Shelby Foote’s praise of George McClellan, the Union General fired in 1862. “He really built that Army,” Foote said, and much of what that Army did afterward was a tribute to McClellan. No analogy is perfect. Trippi combined much of McClellan’s organizational brilliance with the imperfections of generals who succeeded him, like Ambrose Burnside and Joe Hooker. Trippi fought, hard, but the costs exceeded results in Iowa and New Hampshire. Dean lacks the luxury of the years Lincoln spent in finding Grant. He also needs someone with Lee’s tactical brilliance – Grant really won by grinding the opponent down through superior forces. And what of Roy Neel? I know him best from my work on the technology beat, where he ran the US Telephone Association during th

Where we stand

Go read this (lengthy email) from a Dean supporter, to a Dean supporter, that bluntly and frankly discusses where we stand. It makes a rational and principled case for why we need to continue and persevere, without any rose-colored Kool Aid drinking whatsoever. Read it in full.

NYT on Trippi departure

This is the definitive article so far on the Trippi departure, including some hints that the shakeup wasn't as smooth as it appeared beneath the surface. I'm really just posting it for completeness, but I've decided to focus forward from here. UPDATE: well, I guess I should state my opinion on the matter. I agree with the assessment that Trippi is a brilliant tactician - but a terrible strategist . (definitions here and here ). Trppi recognized the potential of the netroots, and his contribution was to let it breathe freely and grow on its own. But he never really tapped into it for ideas . The O-blog contributes nothing to strategy, unlike here at Dean Nation where all we talk about is strategy. But the only idea that they ever ran with was embracing Meetup after we promoted it. And even that embrace ultimately fizzled down to just crowing about the number registered; ask yourself - why wasn't Dean at the Iowa or NH meetup before the primaries? If the campa

Dean's Money Advantage Dwindles

The money situation is indeed tight. Still no confirmation of the $5m rumor, but it is clear that the campaign overspent in Iowa and New Hampshire. Given that we are entering a media-centered phase of the campaign, this is a bad thing. This WaPo article sheds a lot of information on how the fiscal issue affects the primary strategy for Feb 3rd and 7th: Rivals including front-runner John F. Kerry are buying TV ads in South Carolina and other states holding primaries or caucuses Tuesday, but the former Vermont governor has chosen to forgo further advertising in this round, focusing instead on the Feb. 7 caucuses in Michigan and Washington state, campaign officials said. The decision marks a notable shift in fortunes for an innovative candidate who revolutionized fundraising via the Internet and led all Democrats in 2003 by collecting nearly $41 million. "Clearly his decision to spend heavily in New Hampshire was at the expense of not spending in Arizona, New Mexico and South

media navel-gazing

The media discovers it has the power to affect people's opinions. In other news, Diane Sawyer followed up on her "Dean aren't you really a raging lunatic? Judy, Isn't Dean a manic psycho?" interview by conducting an investigation into the Dean Rebel Yell coverage. She concludes that the coverage was unfair. I'm sure the New Hampshire voters are paying attention. These attacks made Dean stronger. I don't hold a grudge in that sense - and I want Kerry to undergo the same trial by fire so he too becomes stronger. I only object to the media's sudden interest in meta-analysis. Drop the pretense, guys, and go for your narratives of the hour. We'll cope... and win.

voters are rational actors

As I posted yesterday, it's tempting to take shots at Kerry. But drawing all the contrasts in the world between Kerry's legislative record and Dean's executive one wont change the simple fact that Kerry won Iowa and NH fair and square . Telling Democrats who have chosen Kerry that they are fools , or dittoheads is not going to help our cause. Worse, it might damage it. The last thing we need is to re-entrench the perception of Dean as attracting idoelogical crazies and cultists who sneer down their noses at the average Joe. I'm strictly a "People are rational actors" guy. Lets focus on telling the campaign what they should do right to draw people, not telling people what they are doing wrong to get them to switch. There are a lot of other oters out there who are uncommitted who are more fertile ground for Dean's ideas than the soft support that switched to Kerry. Forget Kerry. Forget Trippi. Focus on Dean, and how to get this campaign back on

open thread


TMS Continues Ad Effort

MSNBC : "The ad team of McMahon and Mark Squier will remain on the campaign, but they have been told to build a broader ad team that includes creative input from Hollywood and New York specialists to produce better spots, a senior official said on condition of anonymity." I'm not sure this is a good idea. Thoughts?

ABC News: Dean Machine Shake-Up

ABC News has an interesting story on the Trippi removal. Selections: In an emotional meeting with members of the Burlington, Vt.-based staff this afternoon, Trippi thanked them for their hard work and vowed to continue to fight for Dean's candidacy. Dean was in the room and acknowledged Trippi but the two did not shake hands, according to a staff member who was present. ... Trippi ruled the campaign's organization with an iron fist, hiring political and field staffers — many of them quite young — who were loyal to him. In the process, he clashed with members of the Vermont guard loyal to Dean, like Kate O'Connor, Dean's longtime aide, and Bob Rogan, the campaign's deputy chief of staff. ... Dean was said by several sources who are close to him to have been very upset by what happened in Iowa, and blamed Trippi's staff, in part, for being disorganized and for running poor-quality television advertisements. Dean and Trippi also had disagreement
From Dean for America... FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE January 28, 2004 Statements by Governor Howard Dean and Joe Trippi BURLINGTON--Dean for America released the following statements tonight: Democratic presidential candidate Governor Howard Dean, M.D., issued the following statement: "I am deeply grateful to Joe Trippi, who has decided to leave the campaign. Joe has made enormous contributions not just to our campaign but to American politics -- revolutionizing the way in which people are brought into the democratic process and helping hundreds of thousands of people to believe in political change again. "I am pleased to announce that Roy Neel will be relocating to Burlington to assume the position of Chief Executive Officer of the campaign effective immediately. Roy brings enormous experience both in management and national politics. He will be an invaluable resource to our campaign. "Last night the people of New Hampshire reaffirmed that their strong s


MSNBC is reporting that campaign manager Joe Trippi has been reassigned. Gore's Roy Neel to take over campaign. Developing story... Click link above for initial story. Thanks to Mike on the zonk board for the link. UPDATE (Aziz): another link just posted with a lot more information. Here's info on Neel: Neel, Gore's former senatorial chief of staff, served as chief executive of the U.S. Telecom Association in Washington before working on Gore's 2000 presidential campaign. Neel was named to head Gore's transition team in anticipation of the former vice president winning the White House. sources say that Dean asked Trippi to stay on the payroll, but Trippi decided to leave. "I may be out of the campaign, but I'm not out of the fight," Trippi was quoted as saying. UPDATE (MATT B): Here is the O-Blog posting on Neel from 1/7/2004.

audio: Dean on Sean Hannity show (1/28/04)

I have to say, that Dean's apearance on Hannity last night (after Kucinich, who also went on TV later that evening) was fantastic. Hannity endorsed Dean, claiming he'd be defeated against Bush, and Dean used the Reagan analogy, which was a brilliant counterstroke. Dean managed to meet Hannity on almost every point with a better answer straight from his stump speeches. The man was made for talk radio. He needs to get out there NOW. We need him on the Chris Baker show here in Houston. weneed him on YOUR local talk radio, also - chime in and list your local conservative radio hosts wo fantasize that the are the next Hannity or Limbaugh. Let's get Dean on the shows!   Dean on the Sean Hannity show

Should Dean compete for Feb 3?

This ABC article details the difference of opinion in the campaign today about strategy. Dean wants to carry on to the Feb 3 states, and his staff is against the idea, preferring to lie low (as Chris Suellentrop speculates in Slate). What do you think? open thread ...


via Campaign Desk: Most of the questions asked in the official exit poll for the New Hampshire primary today are routine: Are you liberal or conservative, black or white, male or female, and, by the way, how did you vote? But then out of nowhere comes this sucker punch: "Regardless of how you voted today, do you think Howard Dean has the temperament to serve effectively as president?" No other questions about specific candidates were asked. [...] Reading from an official statement, a harried spokesperson for the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, Fox and the AP that administered the poll, told Campaign Desk: "Dean's temperament has been much discussed throughout the campaign. He fell from a significant lead in New Hampshire. Did questions about his temperament after the Iowa speech contribute to that? The exit poll would be remiss if it didn't try to find out." The spokeswoman stressed that because this was an exit poll,

Trippi in trouble?

An article from Seven Days VT has some pretty astonishing gossip from inside sources in Dean's campaign: Seven Days has learned that the disaster in Hawkeye Country last week caused a major realignment of Dean for America’s campaign hierarchy. Sources tell Seven Days that Campaign Manager Joe Trippi, the colorful Internet whiz who led the longshot Vermonter’s meteoric rise, has had his own wings plucked. Dr. Dean, sources say, has taken control of the campaign checkbook from the Trippster and handed it to Deputy Campaign Manager Bob Rogan. Rogan once served on Dean’s gubernatorial staff, before leaving for a management job at Vermont’s largest electric utility. He came back last year for the presidential bid. Now he and longtime Dean aide Kate O’Connor are steering the Dean campaign warship. There are clear indications that if Dean limps on after New Hampshire, Joltin’ Joe Trippi will be gone. So, too, will Trippi’s Washington, D.C., consulting firm Trippi, McMahon &

forget Kerry - it's domestic policy, stupid

There's all sorts of juicy things you could sink your teeth into about Kerry - like this telling anecdote from Chris Suellentrop in Slate: In Manchester, Kerry gave a touching speech about the importance of veterans and of "keeping faith with those who wore the uniform." As soon as it was over, a woman stood up and said, I'm not a veteran. What are you going to do for the average person? At a firehouse in Hampton yesterday, a man told Kerry that he thinks it's unfair that people say a New Englander can't connect with people from varying backgrounds. And to prove that you can do it, he says, explain the importance of the icon on my hat. Kerry is mystified. "The Latin? The Ten?" he asks. Malcolm X, the man explains. But the simple fact is that the race between Dean and Kerry is about Dean. We need to draw people to Dean first. Most of Kerry's support is relatively new, and part of the reason Dean lost support in Iowa was because he went neg

tv ads open thread

let this one be just for your TV ideas...

Winning On Electability

Here is what killed us last night. New Hampshire Democrats bought the idea that the Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party is, by definition, its more liberal wing, thus its least-electable wing. Kerry beat us among moderates, and he pounded us on electability. Over the next week we're going to get a lot of help in taking him down. The media is going to provide much of it. Kerry was Michael Dukakis' Lieutenant Governor. His voting record is more liberal than Teddy Kennedy's. He has never held executive office. Etc. etc. etc. Wesley Clark and John Edwards are going to help us in this. They are going to direct all their fire on Kerry. This is a good thing. Governor Dean's ads, meanwhile, are going to start sounding more like the speeches he gave last week in New Hampshire. Overtly or not, they will make the points I made here last night. We are going to run to Kerry's right, on Dean's record, and take back the moderates. It then becomes crucia

radio ads open thread

Let's brainstorm! what would make the perfect radio ad? tailored to which state?

The Anti-Kerry

When I started this blog on August 30th 2002 , John Kerry was the front-runner and Howard Dean was this niche candidate who attracted me by his ideas. When Dean was crowned the front-runner by the media at the close of 2003, it was by definition a peak. But the peak gets the most exposure, and the withering media barrage that Dean has faced - and survived - has strengthened the campaign. It is now Kerry's turn to face the same barrage - which he avoided all during 2002 even though he had front-runner status, and all during 2003 when he was given up on for dead. And that means we get some breathing room. We'd rather have victory, but it's never bad to be given time to re-assess. Yesterday, a governor of a small rural state lost in New Hampshire to a Massachusetts Senator. The parallels to Clinton in 1992 are strong, but they end today . From here on out, it is Dean making his own history. Clinton lost the first ten contests and regrouped in the South. Dean can't affo

Daily Review

How long will Dean fight on New Hampshire Focusing on Iraq, Health Care and Economy Howard Dean the man for the job Dean Sees Silver Lining in Second Place Dean 'very pleased' with New Hampshire finish Kerry wins again Florida could play big role in nomination

How We Will Beat Kerry

This candidate is amazing. Howard Dean is better than us, better even than his campaign managers. He is a brilliant politician. All week Dean has been telling us how to beat John Kerry. We haven’t been listening. Kerry won Iowa by out-organizing us, and won New Hampshire by stealing our message. He will not win again. Howard Dean has shown us the way, in the debates, and in his town hall meetings. We can easily run to Kerry's right, on all the key issues, not just using rhetoric, but with hard facts. It comes down to these three key points: 1. Get this, South Carolina. Dean was FOR Gulf War I. Kerry voted AGAINST. Saddam Hussein was in Kuwait, Bush I had the approval of the UN, he had the entire world on our side and John F. Kerry voted NO. Then, when Bush II had no case, Kerry voted aye, and now tries to pretend he didn't. He’s a fraud on national security. 2. Listen up, Missouri. Dean can BALANCE A BUDGET, Kerry never has. John Kerry voted FOR this record

Do You Want to Stand Up, or Sit Down?

Based on the early results, I'd say finishing a strong second in New Hampshire is just what the doctor ordered for Dean. The pundits predicted his collapse after Iowa, and New Hampshire voters have repudiated their predictions. While this isn't a huge victory for Dean, it puts him squarely in position with Kerry as the two major candidates in this race. Some interesting exit polling from CNN: 29% of New Hampshire voters said that "standing up for beliefs" was their top quality in a candidate. Dean led all candidates on that score (47% to Kerry's 20%). That was the top quality voters were looking for in their candidate. Another interesting take was on the candidate "most likely to shake things up" - again Dean overwhelmingly (44% to Clark's 14% with Edwards at 13% and Kerry at 12%). What this polling tells me is that voters are afraid. They're afraid of George Bush, and they're voting for Kerry because 60% of them think he's &qu

How We Will Beat Kerry

"A Crushing Defeat"

Chris Matthews just said that Kerry will win by double digits and it will be "a crushing defeat" for Howard Dean. Sen. Kerry addresses his supporters in a few minutes. Howard Fineman of Newsweek says that now Dean's only option is to start hitting Kerry on his record, as and insider, etc. Further, he says that what "they want on the blog" (he didn't specify Dean Nation or the O-Blog). Is it? Is there any other option?

Dean Matching Funds Challenge

Take the Dean Nation Matching Funds Challenge - pledge to contribute one dollar per % point that Dean draws in NH!

real-time precinct results coming in

as of 6:55 PM CST, Dean is in 2nd by 12 points, but ahead of Clark and Edwards by teh same margin. Only 8% of precincts reporting.. click and obsessively refresh!

Dean on Hannity tonight

Listen in - this should be great! Dean is scheduled to be on the show in the last hour. I think that's the 8-9pm hour CST, but correct me if I am wrong... shamelessly stolen from the o-blog.. BTW Kucinich is on with Hannity right now and doing really a great job!

Open Thread: New Hampshire Primary

The polls are still open, but not for long. MSNBC is covering the primary, Lou Dobbs is surprisingly talking about securing our borders (see my rant here ). But let's get the open thread started and discuss the Dean campaigns showing tonight. Update : Polls are closed. MSNBC and CNN are both saying it's a close race according to exit polls. Update : Fox News says exit polling is Kerry by seven points. Also reports Trippi would be greatly pleased with those numbers. Update : CNN has projected that Sen. John Kerry has won New Hampshire. Update : MSNBC has projected that Sen. John Kerry has won New Hampshire. Update : Fox News has projected that Sen. John Kerry has won New Hampshire.

Report from Manchester, NH

Hey everybody! I'm here in the Manchester office where there are about 30 of us (mostly from Massachusetts for Dean ) making phone calls to strong Dean-leaners, trying to get every last potential Dean voter to the polls. This place is absolutely throbbing with voices, phones ringing, and people dashing around. About an hour ago, Tom Hughes (NH Field Director) announced that they're cautiously optimistic but we need to pull out all the stops this afternoon. He was really pumped and led the whole HQ in several rousing rounds of clapping and foot stomping. The building was shaking!!! If you're in NH, do whatever you can in the next few hours. If you're not in NH and you can make it here, start driving now! And if you can't make it, send happy thoughts and good karma to all of us in NH! We're gonna be hoarse by tonight, I swear. Oh and pray for the snow to wait 'til 8pm when the polls close! Remains to be seen if we'll get home to Boston tonight

Half-Time Score

DailyKos , who admittedly has a bias in our favor, printed some early exit polls from New Hampshire this afternoon. Fingers crossed folks. He notes in his item (linked at the headline) that these are like half-time scores at the Super Bowl, and may mean absolutely nothing. But there are good signs from Karen Hicks' visibility operation, and the game isn't over until the final whistle. LA Times: Dean 34 Kerry 33 ABC News: Kerry 37 Dean 31 If these scores hold up, we'll have enough to call it a comeback. If we eke out even a one-vote victory, we're the lead story. One more note. Kos says MSNBC will broadcast exit poll numbers at 4 PM. Don't. Give. Up.

fashion observations done right

There have been numerous, painful examples of fashion-critique aimed at presidential candidates. We all remember the earth-tone thing with Gore and more recently the sweater thing with Clark - it's nothing but lazy journalism and worse, it actually dilutes the importance of the political process by dragging it down to the very definition of superficiality. Today, though, Garance Franke-Ruta does fashion analysis right. Not by inferring from the Doctors Deans' clothes what they are trying to spin, but a simple observation of who they are : If you've ever spent time in the medical arena you know that being a physician is something very different from being an attorney, which is what John Edwards, John Kerry, and Joe Lieberman are. Your stance to the world is simply different if you're a physician, because -- outside of a few specialties, like plastic surgery -- your power doesn't come from how you look or how you appear or even how you sound. It comes from your

Henry Cabot Lodge

Before you look at the last polls (which show Kerry pulling away), and before we see any real results (which may be quite different) a little historical perspective for y'all. Back in 1964 the Republican Party faced a choice between fighting or accomodating. Democrats had been in power most of the previous 32 years. The only exception, Dwight Eisenhower, had come from the accomodationist or "Dewey" wing of the party, and his vice president, Richard Nixon, failed election in 1960. But there was a new voice in the world, a Republican telling his fellow party members that they needed to stand up for themselves, unafraid, that they must have Republican principles. He even had a book, "The Conscience of a Conservative." The man, of course, was Barry Goldwater. Now I know I'm going to be roundly criticized for this post, because, in the end, Goldwater lost the election. But Goldwater also changed history. Goldwater took over the Republican Party fo

Daily Review

Hardball interview: Howard and Judy Dean The Misunderstanding of Judy Dean Democrats fire shots in final New Hampshire push Six signs to watch in New Hampshire vote Congressman visits Blacksburg to gain support for Dean

Open Thread: The Daily Show

Gov. Dean sat down with the Daily Show's John Stewart. Not the funniest sketch that TDS has ever done, but I think it did show Dean as somebody who is willing to joke around and have fun. Couple this with his earlier interview with Dr. Judy Dean on Hardball, and I think he's had a good media day. If Zogby is right and NH is watching... who knows?

The Only Thing We Have To Fear

For over a week the Dean campaign has done everything right. The rallies have been huge. The candidate has been wonderful. He won the debate by going consistently to the opponent's right, in a state that lets independents and Republicans vote in the primary. The press has begun ganging up on the other guy for a change. The polls have been moving. The field organization is first-rate. We have all the late momentum. But I am also prepared for the possibility we may lose tomorrow, to John Kerry. Two sets of numbers concern me. First, over half those surveyed think John Kerry can beat Bush. Second, a Newsweek poll actually shows Kerry beating Bush. Many Democrats would sell their souls to beat Bush. And, in New Hampshire, many may be about to. Because I have a better chance of beating George W. Bush than John Kerry has. We have seen this movie before. Kerry was Michael Dukakis' Lieutenant-Governor. As a Senator, Kerry has usually been in the minority. Kerry has sp

media navel-gazing

I am here to defend the media. Why? Because this "article" by Howard Mortmann, at, does the media a disservice by claiming to be a part of it. In fact, Howard Mortman is a regular contributor to NRO, and stated on NPR that Enron didn't qualify as a political scandal . The article linked above is a collection of blogger quotes, without any reference to where the quotes came from or any links. I am going to give Howard Mortmann the benefit of the doubt and assume that every unnattributed quote is accurate, because I don't see any reason to think he is a liar. But a column saying that bloggers are biased from, well, Howard Mortman is at least deliciously ironic enough that it becomes a good story. It's a familiar modus operandi for Howard Mortmann , though. I wonder when he gets around to doing a similar expose on what the folks at Free Republic say? But there is a real media bias, as opposed to political-opinion-writer-masquerading-as-real-journalist

Greetings from New Hampshire

Hey everybody. I've had no time to post for days now. Frankly, I'm still recovering from Iowa. But this is my third day in NH and I just wanted to chime in with my two cents. First, allow me to say a big 'ol WORD to Anna's post below about why we lost in Iowa. Our precinct captins not being experienced and well-trained and ready to play hardball and way too young -- this was the weakest link. Period. Lots of other factors -- most notably the toolish media -- but the precinct captains would be at the top of my Top Ten List of Reasons Dean Lost Iowa. Live and learn, eh? That said, Karen Hicks runs a much different and much tighter ship here. I have several friends who work in Manchester HQ and they rave about her. This gives me great hope. I've been to several events up here over the past few days. Had the privelege of seeing Howard and Judy at the "Women for Dean" event the other day. If you haven't seen the video of the event, please do. I

Points South

Well, Trammell has arrived in Los Angeles, California! The move is complete and I'm unpacked and settled in. How ya doing Dean Nation? Sorry I haven't been more communicative. Boy have a missed blogging a bunch with all the recent goings-on in Iowa and New Hampshire!!! So, just a quick note and you'll likely see a post or two from me in the next day or so. Cheers and say hi, - Trammell

Why The Polls Are Wrong

Math time, boys and girls! Here's what the pollsters and the news media won't tell you. Here's why the polls are wrong. Get out your statistics textbooks. Let's turn to the section on "total universe." The larger the market, the more accurately you can forecast its behavior, because the easier it is to get a representative sample. In a national election, the total universe is over 100 million, so it's relatively easy to get a representative sample. In a New Hampshire primary, the total universe may be 100-150,000. We don't know. Not only that, but because the total potential universe is small, it's very hard (nearly impossible) to draw a representative sample from it. All the "tricks" pollsters use to even out differences among samples, which work well with a big universe, skew the results further with a small universe. In a national election, where 100 million vote, you need to change 1 million minds to get a 1% movement i

open thread

This is it! BTW< rumor has it that Dean will be on the Daily Show tonight. can anyone confirm?

dead Iraqis and dirty tricks

the full quote from Dean in New Hampshire: You can say that it's great that Saddam [Hussein] is gone, and I'm sure that a lot of Iraqis feel it is great that Saddam is gone, but a lot of them gave their lives , and their living standard is a whole lot worse now than it was before." (emphasis mine). Kudos to Dean for actually talking about dead Iraqis (the one topic that left and right seem to gloss over in the debate about the cost of Iraqi freedom). However, watch for Holy Joe Lieberman, Senator War Hero Kerry, and possibly Edwards in print handouts to ground personnel to spin this as "Dean says Iraqis are worse off after Saddam!" without mentioning that he was explicitly talking about dead Iraqis. Infamous AP writer Nedra Pickler already " fails to mention " that fact in her dishonest headline. It also seems that someone is calling New Hampshire families at 4am with recorded messages claiming to be from the Dean camp. The NH HQ for the

Yes, We Have A Chance

Given up for dead in New Hampshire just a few days ago, the Dean campaign has roared back into a statistical dead heat with that of John Kerry, according to the latest MSNBC/Zogby tracking poll. That poll had Kerry ahead 28-25, but that is within the poll's margin of error. Dean has gained 7 points in the Zogby poll in two days. We've done this by staying positive, allowing Kerry to go negative, on both Clark and on us. This is precisely the mistake we made in Iowa, focusing only on Gephardt, going negative on Gephardt, while Kerry and Edwards stood above the fray. The key to the next 24 hours is to keep the pressure on. Keep talking to people. Accept "no" if that's the answer. We can win if we get the votes of independents, so find them and make sure you can get ours to the polls. It's all going to be about GOTV (get out the vote) tomorrow, with snow expected and temperatures under 10 degrees. Zogby has Dean leading in New Hampshire's Second

Dean and Bin Laden

I see from this Kerry attack mailing that they are using Dean's comments on trying Osama Bin Laden. Not to put too fine a point on it, bit if the Israelis can try Adolf Eichmann, surely we can try Bin Laden. In some places, people clamor for trials of those who have wronged them. Perhaps Americans have grown so complacent in our prosperity that we've lost track of the things that make us truly great. Fortunately there's at least one candidate in the race who understands, and is level-headed enough to keep them foremost in his mind. That is all.

Sunday in New Hampshire

First, computer time is a rare commodity here in the New Hampshire state Dean for America office. My apologies for the abrupt ending yesterday and in advance today. Today was in almost every way an ideal day. All day, positivity and optimism surrounded me. Dr. Dean himself said that tracking polls were definitely going in the right direction and that we were the only campaign moving at all. I started the day in a much better state, after having hung out with several other volunteers and slept in an actual bed. This morning, I was lucky enough to see a town hall meeting conducted by the Doctors Dean at SNHU, which you should watch if you can (it was taped by C-SPAN). The place was packed -- I arrived 15 minutes before it was scheduled to start, and the overflow room was overflowing. Before the Deans spoke, they actually came out to the overflow room first for a quick introduction (which was an extremely thoughtful gesture to the folks in that room). After a fine introduction by

Time’s Arrow Points To You

I saw something yesterday, on the streets of my home town, that chilled me to my bones. It was an old VW bug, painted pink, with a pig’s snout and ears welded to the hood. On the side was painted “Pink Floyd,” with the logo from their “Dark Side of the Moon” on it, the triangular crystal refracting a rainbow. No big deal, until I looked at the driver. His hair was white, and his white beard hung down to his chest. He wasn’t the owner’s father. He was the car’s builder. Here in the middle of life, or a campaign, we can easily forget Time’s Arrow, or where it points for all of us. But figure the driver for 60. He was 30 when he made that car. Then look around at this election. John Kerry defines himself as a Vietnam Veteran, Wesley Clark was a captain in that conflict. Even Governor Dean was seared by it, cheered to declared 1-Y for the draft after Kerry threw his medals away, and his good brother Charlie dead in Laos. All that was all 30 years ago, and more. Kerry’s defi

Kerry Goes Negative

Apparently the Kerry camp is sensing what the rest of us are... Dean is making a comeback in New Hampshire. Today, Kerry accused Gov. Dean of "flip-flops" on taxes and foreign policy. Umm... Senator Kerry, are we doing a little projecting here? Howard Dean stood up to George Bush's unilateral action in Iraq - Senator Kerry voted for it, but then voted against the $87 billion to fund it, and has spent the entire campaign trying to explain his positions on the issue... On the economy, Howard Dean says we need a balanced budget and the only way to get back on track is to repeal the "Bush Tax" - Bush's ill-advised tax cuts for the wealthy in this country. Senator Kerry says we need tax cuts, and by the way, we're going to fund education, provide more health care, etc., etc. I'm not saying those aren't good goals, but the reality is that Dean is the only candidate with the courage to say there's no free ride. We've all got to pitch

German Trial Hears How Iranian Agent Warned US of Impending al-Qaida Attack

This guy was a surprise witness at the trial of an al-Qaida operative. This is breaking news. Here are the money quotes: The United States was warned of impending September 11 terrorist attacks by an Iranian spy, but ignored him, German secret service agents testified yesterday in the trial of an alleged al-Qaida terrorist. The spy, identified as Hamid Reza Zakeri, tried to warn the CIA after leaving Iran in 2001, but was not believed, two German officers who interviewed him told the Hamburg court... ...The testimony at the Hamburg trial could heap more embarrassment on the US state department and secret services, which have denied allegations that they were forewarned of the attacks. The White House and US intelligence agencies have been plagued by accusations of a catastrophic failure since the four planes were hijacked to such devastating effect in 2001. *************************************** Allow me to begin the embarrassment-heaping process. Dean has been cas

Americans Love An Underdog

Today, two days before the New Hampshire primary, every poll shows our campaign trailing that of Senator John Kerry. The margin is anywhere from a few points to dozens. Some say we have momentum. Others say we've got nothing. But know this. Americans love the underdog. We don't root for Goliath, even when we're Goliath. We root for the scrappy little guy. We relish the comeback. It's in our nature. Americans like to see the little guy come off the deck and hit the big guy in the chin. It's when everyone says you can't that Americans say you can. It's always been that way. Especially in New Hampshire. George W. Bush didn't win the New Hampshire primary. John McCain did. Bill Clinton didn't win it. Paul Tsongas did. Even crazy Pat Buchanan pulled a New Hampshire surprise. So why the long faces? Our candidate is doing everything right, and has been since Thursday. Our people are working hard. Our support is committed. We have bee

RNC thugs in Iowa, and how Kerry handed us our a**...

One final brain dump about Iowa and then I'm done. The reason I waited until today to write this up is I was hoping someone would post the video from the Drake University event last Saturday in Des Moines. Since the video is still forthcoming, I guess I'll have to spill and hope whomever has it releases it later. What am I talking about? Go click on the article above and read all about it. The RNC sent thugs to Iowa to disrupt our events. At the Drake University event, the RNC thugs stormed the event holding large Bush/Cheney04 signs and chanting "4 more years". A shoving match ensued and eventually they were driven from the room when everyone sang "The Star Spangled Banner" in unison. Why all the fuss over a candidate that poses "no threat" to Bush? Because they don't know how to beat us. There are several conventional ways to attack the two Johns, the General, and the other candidates. And can those candidates stir up the kind of

New Hampshire Part II

The New Hampshire campaign is vibrant, hopeful, and chaotic--and may very well propel us to victory on Tuesday. One travel day and one full volunteering day later, I am at the center of things in Manchester. Saturday started encouragingly, with excellent message and canvass training from David Bringer and other organizers in Manchester. David's open Q & A was very informative and encouraging. My last-minute arrival made it difficult for me to find a place to go (provisionally, California volunteers were assigned to Keene, NH); however, I spent much of the day performing odd tasks at the volunteer staging office in Manchester (accompanied by many extremely nice people from SEIU Local 1199 and others from Rochester, NY). After reporting back to the main field office in the evening, I felt much more productive, calling supporters and undecided voters to persuade them to vote for Dean on Tuesday and to invite them to see Governor Dean and Dr. Judy Dean's town meeting at the