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"America has two great dominant strands of political thought - conservatism, which, at its very best, draws lines that should not be crossed; and progressivism, which, at its very best, breaks down barriers that should never have been erected." -- Bill Clinton, Dedication of the Clinton Presidential Library, November 2004

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Saturday, April 19, 2003


Dean slips slightly in NH

posted by Aziz P. at Saturday, April 19, 2003 permalink View blog reactions
The latest ARG poll has Dean losing three points, from 22 to 19, while Kerry gained one, from 23 to 24. Kos has some more analysis and a summary of the numbers. Are there any NH DeanBlog readers who can weigh in with their perspectives from the field? How can we leverage Meetup in New England to try and help Dean's numbers rise? Ideas, people!

UPDATE: Of course, the variation is within the margin of error. As Joe Trippi wrote in Kos' comments:

Every poll that has come out in NH over the past three months has shown remarkable consistency within the margin of error. In ARG John Kerry has been at 23 to 24% for 3 months -- In the Franklin Pierce poll he was at 21% -- even with different methodology those numbers are virtually the same and within the margin of error. Same is true for the entire field including Dean. Dean's numbers in both polls over the same period are 19%, 22% (ARG) 21% (Franklin Pierce) again the same number -- it does not matter what order you put them in -- they are still the same number -- all are within a 3 or 4 point margin of error.

The truth is the pre-war and post-start of war environments have not changed the fundamental structure of the race in NH. Also it should be pointed out that Kerry's favorables fell 4 to 5 points in this same poll -- while Howard Dean's favorables increased 3 points. This fact again points to numbers that fall within the margin of error.

I agree, but my concern is that the statistical significance is not as relevant as the perceived significance. Look at the Aware/Favorable numbers from the poll (click here). For April, Kerry has 87%/65%, whereas Dean has 75%/43%. It's not just name recognition that Dean lags behind in, it's also the Favorable perspective. Given that Dean ranks statistically equal to Kerry despite having only 2/3 the Favorable rating, it's clear that Dean has a massive potential that is going unrealized. If Dean's Aware/Favorable numbers can be increased, that will have a direct impact on his poll rating - whereas Kerry is practically maxed out.


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About Nation-Building

Nation-Building was founded by Aziz Poonawalla in August 2002 under the name Dean Nation. Dean Nation was the very first weblog devoted to a presidential candidate, Howard Dean, and became the vanguard of the Dean netroot phenomenon, raising over $40,000 for the Dean campaign, pioneering the use of Meetup, and enjoying the attention of the campaign itself, with Joe Trippi a regular reader (and sometime commentor). Howard Dean himself even left a comment once. Dean Nation was a group weblog effort and counts among its alumni many of the progressive blogsphere's leading talent including Jerome Armstrong, Matthew Yglesias, and Ezra Klein. After the election in 2004, the blog refocused onto the theme of "purple politics", formally changing its name to Nation-Building in June 2006. The primary focus of the blog is on articulating purple-state policy at home and pragmatic liberal interventionism abroad.