Nation-Building

Having spent 9 years in Texas, I am unused to the idea that my vote will actually count for much. But now that I live in Wisconsin, which votes next Tuesday, it seems that my vote has real power - practically every candidate running for President is here this week: With less than a week to go before Wisconsin's primary on Tuesday, candidates from both parties were on the ground Wednesday. The Republican field made its first stop in Wisconsin, with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee asking a crowd in Waukesha to help boost his bid for the presidency and saying he would maintain the party's core principles in a way front-runner John McCain, a U.S. senator from Arizona, could not. For his part, McCain will campaign in Wisconsin on Friday. Meanwhile, Democratic U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois visited Janesville, Waukesha and Racine, talking about inequality in the global economy and his plan to address it. In Racine, Obama's campaign pumped some dollars into the local econo...

After Huckabee's rout of McCain yesterday, the GOP delegate totals are: (1,191 needed to win) McCain : 714 Romney : 286 Huckabee : 217 Clearly, the social-conservative base is rebelling against the coronation of McCain as the nominee. Josh Trevino argues that these results are more indicative of the general election outcome than the primary: what we see this evening is only partly a preview of a Huckabee surge from conservatives. That surge is yet to fully materialize; it has long odds against it due to the establishment’s scorched-earth campaign against Huckabee of one month past; and even if it comes to pass, it is unlikely to deny McCain the nomination. This evening’s results are a preview of something else: the root of a McCain defeat in November. In other words, for Huckabee to prevail over McCain, he'd still have to succeed in improbable math . However, others speculate what would happen if Romney threw his support to Huck instead: If Romney were to join forces with Huc...

You just have to admire this for its brilliance. Huckabee zings Romney, and zings him hard : "Why doesn't he drop out? Look at how much money he spent to get the same market share that I've got," the former Arkansas governor told a public affairs forum in San Francisco, the Commonwealth Club. "My message is obviously selling a lot better than his because look at how much he's had to put behind it to market it, and it's barely sold. I have fewer resources, but I've sold as much of the product as he has." Mr. Huckabee said Mr. Romney, who founded a business consulting firm, Bain Capital, should be able to recognize the trend lines. "He's an MBA and a smart business guy. If he were applying the same kind of business standard that he applied at Bain Capital, he'd be saying Huckabee's got a more efficient operation. They're getting a better market share than me for less money. Let's invest in him," the former Arkansas gov...

Mick Huckabee doesn't have enough money to play in Florida: "The money simply hasn't come in at the rate that we expected," says the [Huckabee Campaign] aide. "Florida is a $7 million commitment that we can't meet, and if we did, that leaves us exposed for Super Tuesday, where we have a lot of states and a lot media buys. We had to make tough decisions." With Fred! out of the campaign today , that leaves Florida as a three-way race between McCain, Rudy, and Romney. No matter how the votes break, this doesn't look good for Rudy. Huckabee's socon support is going to switch to either Romney or McCain, deprived of the Fred option as they are. And it's doubtful that everyone supporting Fred is going to go the Rudy route. It's much more likely now that McCain takes Florida and that Rudy drops out before MegaTuesday. I think that by the time we hit February the GOP nomination will be a two-person race between Romney and McCain, and I'm pret...

It's starting to look like John McCain is this cycle's John Kerry, at least as far as the electability argument goes. Since all the putative front runners are unacceptable to at least one segment of the GOP base, McCain is increasingly seen as the only "viable" alternative who is "acceptable" - and his South Caroline victory pretty much seals that view in the GOP mainstream (something that neither Iowa nor New Hampshire could have provided him). No one else has as much momentum as McCain now. GOP primary results for South Carolina were at last count, 92 percent of precincts reporting McCain 137,000 (33%) Huckabee 123,117 (30%) Thompson 65,108 (16%) Romney 62,367 (15%) Paul 15,235 (4%) Giuliani 8,518 (2%) Hunter 991 (0%) Huckabee is the Dean of this cycle, pulling in a close second and thus far still second fiddle to McCain, though of all the others, he's got the broadest support. The one ticket that I think can present a strong challenge to Clinton or O...

Fred's dead, baby . His own campaign is sending signals of defeat before the caucus has even started. DES MOINES, Iowa – Several Republican officials close to Fred Thompson’s presidential campaign said they expect the candidate will drop out of the race within days if he finishes poorly in Thursday’s Iowa caucus. [...] Thompson’s departure could shake up the race more than his continued presence. Friends and advisers said they have long considered it likely that if the lobbyist-actor is forced from the race he would endorse John McCain his former Senate colleague who lately has been staging a political revival in New Hampshire. I think the conventional wisdom is that Huck will take first and Romney second. However, given the depressed turnout for Republicans , it's really about ground game and organization, and a candidate who doesnt necessarily poll well might walk away with the prize. Both Huckabee and Romney are heavily counting on their field operation to turn out their res...

At myDD, there's a post about the true dark horse on the GOP side , Mike Huckabee. The bottom line on him is that he has a reserve os support and money that belies his "third tier" status and, in the words of Mike Caulfield , There is this air of reasonableness which flows off of him. He's a year 2000 George Bush with 40 additional IQ points and without that damn smirk. Even that doesn't hit it -- Huckabee is as talented on the stump as any of the candidates, Democratic or Republican. [...] Hillary v. Huckabee is a threat to a Democratic victory in a way that Hillary v. Guiliani is frankly not. Were the Republican base to get past its craving for 2002, when hate was in vogue, they'd see that their best chance for an election win is to rerun the formula of 2000 with a sharper and more experienced candidate. Well, today Huckabee just got a major boost, since Brownback just announced he is out : Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback will drop his White House bid in an announ...