Nation-Building

This is the text and word cloud of the speech by Sarah Palin while in Hong Kong on September 23rd, for the CLSA Pacific Markets Conference. Note the dominant topic (in the cloud) in her speech is obvious, and hardly a surprise given the context and locale of the speech. You can call me a common-sense conservative. My approach to the issues facing my country and the world, issues that we'll discuss today, are rooted in this common-sense conservatism... Common sense conservatism deals with the reality of the world as it is. Complicated and beautiful, tragic and hopeful, we believe in the rights and the responsibilities and the inherent dignity of the individual. We don't believe that human nature is perfectible; we're suspicious of government efforts to fix problems because often what it's trying to fix is human nature, and that is impossible. It is what it is. But that doesn't mean that we're resigned to any negative destiny. Not at all. I believe in striving fo...

At City of Brass, I've posted my debate analysis . Long story short: Palin did not lose, but Biden did not win.

Senator Joe Biden's remarks: Governor Sarah Palin's remarks:

Governor Palin's comments from the debate, extracted from the CNN transcript. below the fold...   Thank you, Gwen. And I thank the commission, also. I appreciate this privilege of being able to be here and speak with Americans. You know, I think a good barometer here, as we try to figure out has this been a good time or a bad time in America's economy, is go to a kid's soccer game on Saturday, and turn to any parent there on the sideline and ask them, "How are you feeling about the economy?" And I'll bet you, you're going to hear some fear in that parent's voice, fear regarding the few investments that some of us have in the stock market. Did we just take a major hit with those investments? Fear about, how are we going to afford to send our kids to college? A fear, as small-business owners, perhaps, how we're going to borrow any money to increase inventory or hire more people. The barometer there, I think, is going to be resounding that ...

Tina Fey reprises her role as Sarah Palin on SNL, this time lampooning the Katie Couric interview. Just to get everyone psyched up for the thursday veep debate. Assuming the McCain campaign actually lets Palin attend, that is. Excerpt on foreign policy: POEHLER AS COURIC: "On foreign policy, I want to give you one more chance to explain your claim that you have foreign policy experience based on Alaska's proximity to Russia. What did you mean by that?" FEY AS PALIN: "Well, Alaska and Russia are only separated by a narrow maritime border. (using her hands to illustrate) You got Alaska here, this right here is water, and this is Russia. So, we keep an eye on them." POEHLER AS COURIC: "And how do you do that exactly?" FEY AS PALIN: "Every morning, when Alaskans wake up, one of the first things they do, is look outside to see if there are any Russians hanging around. And if there are, you gotta go up to them and ask, 'What are you doing here?...

A batch of polls over the weekend show that McCain has gained serious ground: USAToday / Gallup 9/5-7/08 McCain 54, Obama 44) (8/23: Obama 48, McCain 45) Zogby Interactive 9/5-6/08 McCain 50, Obama 46 (8/30: McCain 47, Obama 45) Gallup Poll 9/4-6/08 McCain 48, Obama 45 Rasmussen Reports 9/4-6/08 McCain 48, Obama 48 The latter two are daily tracking polls, so you can get a very good sense of the trend and response to various events. All of these polls use "likely voter" models, ie an estimate to try and weight the results using demographics rather than just a straight sampling. Also, national polls of ths sort do not capture the electoral college math - the same kind of thing that lets a candidate win the electoral vote even if they lose the popular vote. The million-voter question remains: is this due to Palin? It's unlikely - Palin just doesn't appeal to independents and Hillary voters : When we ask the ultimate question--how does each candidate's VP pick affect...

The McCain campaign has something to hide - and its name is Sarah Palin : In fact the McCain campaign is audaciously spinning this as perfectly normal, as if press access to an unknown vice presidential candidate is utterly unreasonable. Campaign official Nicole Wallace literally laughed at the suggestion - see for yourself: WALLACE: But I mean like from who? From you? Who cares?! CARNEY: Who cares? I think the American people care. WALLACE: I think the American people want to see her -- I mean who cares if she can talk to Time Magazine? She talked to the American people. As Booman Tribune notes , The McCain campaign is literally going to try to sell Sarah Palin as a credible president without letting the press talk to her. For example, this Sunday, Barack Obama will appear on This Week with George Stephanopoulos, John McCain with be on Face the Nation, and Joe Biden will be on Meet the Press. Sarah Palin will be reading briefing papers in Alaska. The Nation observes, ...

Over at the new Beliefnet-hosted City of Brass , I take a look at Sarah Palin and the McCain campaign's strategy,and conclude that her speech represents a wasted opportunity to appeal to the middle .