Happy election day! (Some crazy towns in New Hampshire started voting at midnight). Courtesy of Nate Silver's simulations, here's how McCain might win . The most plausible (but still improbable) scenario: Obama takes all the Gore and Kerry states, and McCain takes everything else. Everything else in this case includes states like Colorado (9 EV), where Obama's lead is the widest it's ever been and early voting favors Obama heavily. In other words: not gonna happen. Also, Virginia (13 EV) is looking very, very good for Obama, too. However, continuing the scenario, if McCain can pick up Pennsylvania (21 EV), then he can compensate for VA and CO and win the election. This is probably Obama's worst-case, leaving him at 265, just shy of victory. However, despite McCain's late surge and heavy focus on PA, Obama still has a healthy lead . In fact, I think Obama will take PA, in part because of early voting, heavy turnout ( weather in PA today is high 40s - low 50s ...