Tuesday, February 17, 2004
Dean's Remarks Post-Wisconsin Voting
Dean: "We are not done."
Okay, when Kerry goes on stage just seconds after Edwards, I thought, "what a (explative deleted)."
Okay, when Kerry goes on stage just seconds after Edwards, I thought, "what a (explative deleted)."
What's Next?
I know many bloggers, contributors, and Dean supporters have been speculating about what Dean's next move is - and whether it should be a conventional next move.
First, I think that it's up to Howard Dean what he chooses to do with his massive database of volunteers, first-time voters and volunteers, and contributors. Beyond that, I do believe that Dean has earned the right to continue his campaign - either by staying in as long as he likes (he's earned it - whether or not we all agree with his decision privately, or not); or by taking a pragmatic approach - say, by dropping out tomorrow, endorsing Edwards as the alternative to Kerry, and hoping for a South-North VP slot on the Edwards ticket (two populist outsiders from different regions of the country could be an attractive ticket); or retiring to Burlington to take his campaign to a different outcome altogether by channeling his support into a grassroots outreach organization, or something else altogether.
One thing is for sure. Dean has fundamentally changed the nature of this race, he has shown that Democrats need not roll over for Bush-Cheney, that they can indeed be beaten - but only by going after them aggressively, and that political fundraising does not have to belong to special interests (are you listening John Kerry?), but that individuals with $5 and $10 contributions can take the system back. All in all, a good show. Give 'em Hell, Howard.
Other thoughts on what's next?
First, I think that it's up to Howard Dean what he chooses to do with his massive database of volunteers, first-time voters and volunteers, and contributors. Beyond that, I do believe that Dean has earned the right to continue his campaign - either by staying in as long as he likes (he's earned it - whether or not we all agree with his decision privately, or not); or by taking a pragmatic approach - say, by dropping out tomorrow, endorsing Edwards as the alternative to Kerry, and hoping for a South-North VP slot on the Edwards ticket (two populist outsiders from different regions of the country could be an attractive ticket); or retiring to Burlington to take his campaign to a different outcome altogether by channeling his support into a grassroots outreach organization, or something else altogether.
One thing is for sure. Dean has fundamentally changed the nature of this race, he has shown that Democrats need not roll over for Bush-Cheney, that they can indeed be beaten - but only by going after them aggressively, and that political fundraising does not have to belong to special interests (are you listening John Kerry?), but that individuals with $5 and $10 contributions can take the system back. All in all, a good show. Give 'em Hell, Howard.
Other thoughts on what's next?
It's All Over
Howard Dean just lost Wisconsin (network exit polling says) in a distant third. I've held off on posting this thought for quite a long time now; however, I have been thinking about this quite a bit. It's clear to me that it is time for Howard Dean to suspend or end his presidential bid.
I'm not a fan of John Kerry. I think he has flip flopped far too much. I'm afraid he will fall back into being a really sucky candidate who has no energy. I think Gov. Dean may view him this way as well. That's why I am starting to think that Dr. Dean should endorse Sen. John Edwards - he's a fellow outsider (more or less) and he is much better at the optimism thing than Dean ever was despite his hope not fear line.
I feel like it's getting to the point where the party is over, but we're the guest who just doesn't get the hint to go home. Where's my jacket?
I'm not a fan of John Kerry. I think he has flip flopped far too much. I'm afraid he will fall back into being a really sucky candidate who has no energy. I think Gov. Dean may view him this way as well. That's why I am starting to think that Dr. Dean should endorse Sen. John Edwards - he's a fellow outsider (more or less) and he is much better at the optimism thing than Dean ever was despite his hope not fear line.
I feel like it's getting to the point where the party is over, but we're the guest who just doesn't get the hint to go home. Where's my jacket?
Deanism
Howard Dean's failure will be complete unless we can transform this movement into a meaningful third force in American politics.
This is not to demean the Doctor. Dean has done an awful lot in a short time. He gave the Democratic Party back its backbone and themes. He gave a generation of detached, cynical voters a cause, and a way to connect. He has defined this race.
But he has been unable to translate his fierce support into mass appeal. His attempt to move to the right of John Kerry - which is where he is - has gone nowhere. His core supporters didn't give-off centrist vibes. Some scared people. Democratic primary voters have chosen, on the whole, to trust their institutions, not their instincts.
Despite Dean's opposition to the Iraq War and his defining speech about representing "the Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party," Deanism is actually descended from a long line of centrist American political movements which have tried, unsuccessfully, to move both parties off knee-jerk ideological bases for 40 years.
Deanism is frugal (Perot and Anderson), socially tolerant (Bradley), internationalist without being imperialist (Bush I). Deanists want transparency, both in politics (McCain) and business (Hart), we want balance in our treatment of hot-button issues (Ventura), and we want government to work - it's just that simple (as Perot would say). The only two Democrats elected President in the last 40 years -- Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton -- were Deanists.
Deanism is far more appealing as a general election platform than it is in a primary because Deanists (or Deanites, if you prefer, even Deanistas) lack the institutional structure that would make us a true political force. Instead the movement is all about the leader. Whether, in the past, that leader was John Anderson, Gary Hart, Perot, John McCain or Bill Bradley doesn't matter. Howard Dean was the only Democratic candidate in this field with real appeal to Republicans and Independents.
Given an institutional base - think tanks, grassroots organizations, media - Deanists could dominate American politics for the next generation. We could, if properly organized, endorse either side in specific races. We could withhold our endorsement, or we could run our own candidates, where there is running room between two extremists. (That's what Jesse Ventura and Arnold Schwarzenegger did.)
The challenge, then, is to build an organization, in every state, and gain institutional rigor on every issue. This will take money, a lot of it. For the last generation the money has been on the political right, which learned lessons with every defeat. They learned and grew savvy on pushing their social agenda after 1988 (with Pat Robertson), their foreign policy agenda after 1992 (with the Project for a New American Century), and their economic agenda after 1996 (with the supply-siders).. These movements have since poured themselves into the Bush Administration and domimate policy.
Moderation has failed, it has even come to be mislabeled left-wing extremism, because we clearly see neither our potential power nor our powerlessness. As a result, we are easily pulled apart toward one set of interest groups or the other, because their institutions create the base voters who can dominate party primaries.
The choice in 2004 will also seem to be a choice between two sets of ideological extremes. We can provide the winning margin in many races, but only if we organize, and withhold our support until we get the best policy price.
Beyond that, Deanism must become much more than Howard Dean. It must become think tanks, it must generate cash flow, it must get itself together again, and go beyond the mere visage of Dean, in every village and town. That's the challenge. What began as a fight for one man must become a fight for all of our causes. It's not as much fun as a Presidential campaign, but in the end it's far more worthwhile.
The Far Right did all this, and now they're reaping the benefits. They may be driving our great nation into the ditch, but they've got the wheel, not us. The lesson of this campaign is we won't get the benefits without the hard work. There are no short cuts in politics. Without a real movement behind him, the best man is still just a man.
This is not to demean the Doctor. Dean has done an awful lot in a short time. He gave the Democratic Party back its backbone and themes. He gave a generation of detached, cynical voters a cause, and a way to connect. He has defined this race.
But he has been unable to translate his fierce support into mass appeal. His attempt to move to the right of John Kerry - which is where he is - has gone nowhere. His core supporters didn't give-off centrist vibes. Some scared people. Democratic primary voters have chosen, on the whole, to trust their institutions, not their instincts.
Despite Dean's opposition to the Iraq War and his defining speech about representing "the Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party," Deanism is actually descended from a long line of centrist American political movements which have tried, unsuccessfully, to move both parties off knee-jerk ideological bases for 40 years.
Deanism is frugal (Perot and Anderson), socially tolerant (Bradley), internationalist without being imperialist (Bush I). Deanists want transparency, both in politics (McCain) and business (Hart), we want balance in our treatment of hot-button issues (Ventura), and we want government to work - it's just that simple (as Perot would say). The only two Democrats elected President in the last 40 years -- Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton -- were Deanists.
Deanism is far more appealing as a general election platform than it is in a primary because Deanists (or Deanites, if you prefer, even Deanistas) lack the institutional structure that would make us a true political force. Instead the movement is all about the leader. Whether, in the past, that leader was John Anderson, Gary Hart, Perot, John McCain or Bill Bradley doesn't matter. Howard Dean was the only Democratic candidate in this field with real appeal to Republicans and Independents.
Given an institutional base - think tanks, grassroots organizations, media - Deanists could dominate American politics for the next generation. We could, if properly organized, endorse either side in specific races. We could withhold our endorsement, or we could run our own candidates, where there is running room between two extremists. (That's what Jesse Ventura and Arnold Schwarzenegger did.)
The challenge, then, is to build an organization, in every state, and gain institutional rigor on every issue. This will take money, a lot of it. For the last generation the money has been on the political right, which learned lessons with every defeat. They learned and grew savvy on pushing their social agenda after 1988 (with Pat Robertson), their foreign policy agenda after 1992 (with the Project for a New American Century), and their economic agenda after 1996 (with the supply-siders).. These movements have since poured themselves into the Bush Administration and domimate policy.
Moderation has failed, it has even come to be mislabeled left-wing extremism, because we clearly see neither our potential power nor our powerlessness. As a result, we are easily pulled apart toward one set of interest groups or the other, because their institutions create the base voters who can dominate party primaries.
The choice in 2004 will also seem to be a choice between two sets of ideological extremes. We can provide the winning margin in many races, but only if we organize, and withhold our support until we get the best policy price.
Beyond that, Deanism must become much more than Howard Dean. It must become think tanks, it must generate cash flow, it must get itself together again, and go beyond the mere visage of Dean, in every village and town. That's the challenge. What began as a fight for one man must become a fight for all of our causes. It's not as much fun as a Presidential campaign, but in the end it's far more worthwhile.
The Far Right did all this, and now they're reaping the benefits. They may be driving our great nation into the ditch, but they've got the wheel, not us. The lesson of this campaign is we won't get the benefits without the hard work. There are no short cuts in politics. Without a real movement behind him, the best man is still just a man.
where we stand, by the numbers
Prior to Wisconsin, there have been 16 caucuses and primaries at which delegates have been awarded. Of these 16, Dean has beat Edwards in 9 states: New Hampshire, Arizona, Nevada, Washington, D.C., Maine, Michigan, N. Dakota, New Mexico. Dean lost to Edwards in 7 states: Iowa , Delaware, Virginia, Tennessee, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Missouri.
Prior to Wisconsin, Dean has 192 delegates compared to Edwards with 166.
Edwards has received significantly more votes overall, however, by a factor of approximately 2.5 (summed over all states so far). So out of three metrics of success - states, delegates, and votes, Dean is ahead by 2-1.
These are not the statistics of a candidate who is "toast". These are the stats of a viable candidate, who by remaining in the race until Super Tuesday can keep this race for the nomination alive. And by doing that, we can keep the pressure on Bush.
Prior to Wisconsin, Dean has 192 delegates compared to Edwards with 166.
Edwards has received significantly more votes overall, however, by a factor of approximately 2.5 (summed over all states so far). So out of three metrics of success - states, delegates, and votes, Dean is ahead by 2-1.
These are not the statistics of a candidate who is "toast". These are the stats of a viable candidate, who by remaining in the race until Super Tuesday can keep this race for the nomination alive. And by doing that, we can keep the pressure on Bush.
Mad City!
Reporting from "Ping," an internet cafe in downtown Madison that's filled with kids skipping school to play some kind of Columbine game where they are all killing each other with guns and yelling out loud. It actually looks like a lot of fun but I'm of the Dungeons and Dragons era with dice and character profiles...
I just thought I'd slip a little commentary in. It's quiet here in Madison. It has been for the past couple of days. It's nothing like Iowa or New Hampshire, of course.
(DUDE! The kid next to me just got killed! DUDE!)
There were a couple of people passing out info about Dean on State Street yesterday. I ran into John Edwards's wife at the laundromat yesterday (Edwards campaign headquarters). She was kind and upbeat, the same way the Dean staffers are: staying positive and hopeful.
I decided to mix things up a bit and went to a Kerry rally at the Kohl Center where the Badgers play.
(HAAAAAAAAAAAA! I Killed you! And you! And You! And--DAMN! You killed me!)
Teresa Heinz put everybody asleep with another one of her speeches about John's dignity. In fact, she spoke more about the principal draw--Ted Kennedy and his dignity. The corraled crowd was extremely polite, a pretty good mix of people rapt with funeral amazement. More polished. More button downed. A midwestern crowd, though, unlike the drunk old Irish mafia crowd that propped Kerry up in New Hampshire.
The Kerry press relations chief made the mistake of letting me in the heavily secured corral. It's amazing where you can go if you throw a suit and tie on. Unlike the Dean rallies, this one again had all the big cross-armed young men keeping watch over all the ropes and gates.
I focused my site in on wobbly, old Ted Kennedy with thoughts of Kennedy Vs. Humphrey in the 1960 Wisconsin primary.
(Dude the System's down! Shit! Dude that was my Kill!)
I aimed at Ted Kennedy.
I fired.
"Do the Democrats owe Howard Dean?"
"Well, ahhhhhhhhh, Governor Dean gave me, ahhhhh, we, an important addition to the discussion..." blah blah blah
He was quickly hobbled away by an aide who looked like he had a bright future of politics in his eyes.
Walking out of the Kohl Center with my trophy bagged, my thought was,
WERE WE EVER DEMOCRATS? WERE THEY EVER GOING TO LET US BE DEMOCRATS?
(Bang! You're dead.)
Crossposted with DeanTV.org
I just thought I'd slip a little commentary in. It's quiet here in Madison. It has been for the past couple of days. It's nothing like Iowa or New Hampshire, of course.
(DUDE! The kid next to me just got killed! DUDE!)
There were a couple of people passing out info about Dean on State Street yesterday. I ran into John Edwards's wife at the laundromat yesterday (Edwards campaign headquarters). She was kind and upbeat, the same way the Dean staffers are: staying positive and hopeful.
I decided to mix things up a bit and went to a Kerry rally at the Kohl Center where the Badgers play.
(HAAAAAAAAAAAA! I Killed you! And you! And You! And--DAMN! You killed me!)
Teresa Heinz put everybody asleep with another one of her speeches about John's dignity. In fact, she spoke more about the principal draw--Ted Kennedy and his dignity. The corraled crowd was extremely polite, a pretty good mix of people rapt with funeral amazement. More polished. More button downed. A midwestern crowd, though, unlike the drunk old Irish mafia crowd that propped Kerry up in New Hampshire.
The Kerry press relations chief made the mistake of letting me in the heavily secured corral. It's amazing where you can go if you throw a suit and tie on. Unlike the Dean rallies, this one again had all the big cross-armed young men keeping watch over all the ropes and gates.
I focused my site in on wobbly, old Ted Kennedy with thoughts of Kennedy Vs. Humphrey in the 1960 Wisconsin primary.
(Dude the System's down! Shit! Dude that was my Kill!)
I aimed at Ted Kennedy.
I fired.
"Do the Democrats owe Howard Dean?"
"Well, ahhhhhhhhh, Governor Dean gave me, ahhhhh, we, an important addition to the discussion..." blah blah blah
He was quickly hobbled away by an aide who looked like he had a bright future of politics in his eyes.
Walking out of the Kohl Center with my trophy bagged, my thought was,
WERE WE EVER DEMOCRATS? WERE THEY EVER GOING TO LET US BE DEMOCRATS?
(Bang! You're dead.)
Crossposted with DeanTV.org
WI primary results http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/states/WI/index.html
bookmark this link - no precincts have reported as yet, though that didn't stop CBS from "reporting" that Dean lost and has dropped out of the race (past tense) as of 8:42am this morning (er, before polls opened. Psychic powers!). Others are busy writing Dean's obituary, since they can't be bothered with messy details like counting votes or anything.
Judge rules on Dean's gubernatorial records http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/02/17/elec04.prez.dean.documents/
A Vermont court has denied the right-wing group Judicial Watch a victory in the lawsuit over Dean's gubernatorial records. I wouldn't call it a victory for Dean, though, as he's been ordered to provide a detailed index of the records as well as an explanation of why each record should remain sealed. It seems to me the burden of proof has now been placed squarely on Dean. There are 145 sealed boxes that now must be catalogued, while 190 boxes have already been released to the public.
WI open thread
If you live in Wisconsin, VOTE! for Dean, for ourselves, for America.
Daily Review
More relaxed Dean devotes one more day to Wisconsin
Candidates Focus on Wisconsin Issues
Candidates, spouses, others go into a home-stretch kick
Dean vows to press on despite odds
Right at home... Down on the farm with Howard Dean
The Wisconsin Debate
Candidates Focus on Wisconsin Issues
Candidates, spouses, others go into a home-stretch kick
Dean vows to press on despite odds
Right at home... Down on the farm with Howard Dean
The Wisconsin Debate
Monday, February 16, 2004
Tomorrow I Vote Dean http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=807
Tomorrow is the Wisconsin primary. My expectation is that Howard Dean will lose. The linked poll above certainly indicates that. From what I've seen, Dean is running as a left-wing insurgent rather than a maverick reformer. In order to win that way, he needs to dominate in Dane County and convince everyone else he isn't crazy. From where I sit in Madison (Dane County), he is not doing the former, and may not even have a plurality. You can feel good because the mood toward Dean feels better than it's been, but it's not enough. Given a few more months, maybe, but they're simply not there.
Two problems people have talked about before also seem in evidence in this state. On the bus home tonight, someone carrying some cards got on, stood in the middle of the bus, and began lecturing us about the flaws of Kerry and Edwards. No one was much impressed, and I think the tactic overwhelmed the message. The main TV ad I keep seeing has the theme that the media says he doesn't have a chance, but if we vote for him, we can make the Wisconsin primary matter. This is not a winning message next to Kerry's talk about health care and Edwards discussing the economy.
That said, I fully intend to vote for Howard Dean tomorrow, and I see this as a vote meant to accomplish positive goals. For one thing, we all want Dean to have a voice in the party, and demonstrated electoral strength will help that. A decent showing here will also help him go out on a "better than expected" note, which would be beneficial if he wants to run in 2008 in the unfortunate event that Bush wins this November. Finally, I believe in voting for the candidate who best represents my views except in very special circumstances. If Dean were badly behind and the state a Kerry/Clark dogfight, I might consider Clark, but I honestly don't think Edwards can win either. And I don't understand the "rally around the nominee" mentality. Bush will not run campaign ads saying that Kerry for only 40% of the Wisconsin vote instead of 50%.
So to those Wisconsinites reading this who might be depressed, I say walk into the polls tomorrow and vote proudly for the man you have followed this far. Do so with pride, and this campaign will be remembered for its many accomplishments regardless of the results. Do so with conviction, and other politicians will take notice and start figuring out how to appeal to your beliefs. And do so with hope, because even if Dean does lose this election, votes are often about causes and bundles of issues more than candidates. No member of the Progressive party ever became President, yet their issues carried the day in the early 20th century.
The press will focus on the momentary horserace, but from the perspective of history, I think one thing is clear:
You matter.
Two problems people have talked about before also seem in evidence in this state. On the bus home tonight, someone carrying some cards got on, stood in the middle of the bus, and began lecturing us about the flaws of Kerry and Edwards. No one was much impressed, and I think the tactic overwhelmed the message. The main TV ad I keep seeing has the theme that the media says he doesn't have a chance, but if we vote for him, we can make the Wisconsin primary matter. This is not a winning message next to Kerry's talk about health care and Edwards discussing the economy.
That said, I fully intend to vote for Howard Dean tomorrow, and I see this as a vote meant to accomplish positive goals. For one thing, we all want Dean to have a voice in the party, and demonstrated electoral strength will help that. A decent showing here will also help him go out on a "better than expected" note, which would be beneficial if he wants to run in 2008 in the unfortunate event that Bush wins this November. Finally, I believe in voting for the candidate who best represents my views except in very special circumstances. If Dean were badly behind and the state a Kerry/Clark dogfight, I might consider Clark, but I honestly don't think Edwards can win either. And I don't understand the "rally around the nominee" mentality. Bush will not run campaign ads saying that Kerry for only 40% of the Wisconsin vote instead of 50%.
So to those Wisconsinites reading this who might be depressed, I say walk into the polls tomorrow and vote proudly for the man you have followed this far. Do so with pride, and this campaign will be remembered for its many accomplishments regardless of the results. Do so with conviction, and other politicians will take notice and start figuring out how to appeal to your beliefs. And do so with hope, because even if Dean does lose this election, votes are often about causes and bundles of issues more than candidates. No member of the Progressive party ever became President, yet their issues carried the day in the early 20th century.
The press will focus on the momentary horserace, but from the perspective of history, I think one thing is clear:
You matter.
movement building http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/02/16/mgrind.day.monday/index.html
Dean campaign officials tell the Grind that there's a large and growing chorus urging the governor to move on by creating an IRS-classified 527 or a 501(c)3 fund-raising committee, which would let Dean raise money and help congressional candidates, while offering him a separate platform from Kerry's presidential campaign.
"A lot of us want to see 'Dean for America' evolve into something more, something that helps more Democrats win elections based on the message we created," one top Dean strategist told the Grind. "The campaign has changed the party so much, and has really shown people what can be done if you inspire a movement of people. So a lot of us would like to see that organization continue. If it can't continue as a presidential campaign, we could still do some good for the party and for the country."
One other dynamic growing out of the dispersed camps of defeated Dems: Frustration with the compressed, front-loaded campaign schedule devised by Terry McAuliffe.
"People are frustrated, people are very frustrated. The people of Iowa, god bless them, decided this race for the rest of this country," one senior Dean aide told the Grind. "It was set up for someone to win Iowa and then win the whole damn thing. There was no time for anyone else to break through."
The only problem I have with all this is that there seems to be no one left in the Dean campaign who can successfully articulate the problem and take the movement forwards. Trippi is gone, Grossman was a turncoat, that really only leaves Kate O'Connor and Zephyr - and I suppose, Al Gore. Would a new DFA 527 simply be a general fund to help Democrats, or would there actually be some kind of criterion for a Democrat to qualify? I sense the former, which is both good and bad.
multi-blog Dean feed http://now.feedster.com/dean?mem=c8828ad677dc251607ffbc9bd145c1fa&c=2
interesting technology from Feedster. You can add your own blog to the feed as well.
Grossman out http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-02-16-dean-chairman_x.htm
No indication that he was fired, but Grossman is gone. Good riddance. For background, see Aziz's earlier post.
Politics The Art of the Possible
(I had planned to post this late Tuesday, but given the nature of the threads here I decided we need it now. -- db)
Why were we so naïve as to think the nation could be taken back with a few months of rallies, a couple of bats, and the most attractive (in a political sense) Presidential candidate in decades?
Answer: we’re Americans.
But power isn’t given. It must be seized. When both the media and politicians of all stripes turn on you, the only answer is to change the game.
This campaign is the start of that process, not the end. We now have the tools, and the people power we need, to take this country back. But it won’t happen at once. It will happen one town at a time, one race at a time, one issue at a time.
We know what we stand for. Deanism, if I might coin a phrase, favors balanced budgets, progressive taxes, social diversity, a cleaner environment, a bias toward small business and a foreign policy based on American values. We can, we must, start fighting for those values in our towns.
Take my town. I live in Georgia. By conventional political calculation that’s hopeless ground. Maybe, in the short run, it is. But we have Atlanta here, we have a million-person county dominated by black folks. We have more young, creative Dean-type voters than any other state in the South.
We also have needs and issues. Right now the State Legislature is moving to put a gay marriage ban into our Constitution, trampling the rights of the Community Church that might marry gay people. We have an education department taking science out of our schools, by degrees, backing off on the word “evolution” but dumbing things down behind the scenes. We have people driving 90 minutes and more, each way, to work, and more subdivisions sprouting further out. Our water supply is fought-over among three states, and Atlanta (a city of 400,000) faces a $3 billion sewer bill it can’t pay. For starters.
We can win back this state. But we’re going to have to rebuild from the ground-up, from the neighborhood-up, finding small fights we can win, organizing block-by-block. We have the tools to do this, now. We have the people to do this, now. We have the support, in each other, to do this, now.
In the wake of Wisconsin the question is do we have the will?
Dean ran to the right of most Democrats on many issues. He was to the right of Kerry on the budget, on health care, even on the War. Our failures aren’t his alone. They’re collective. We scared people. There were so many of us, in our orange hats, in our firm belief. What we saw as a joyful crowd looked to outsiders like an angry mob.
We saw Frank Capra. They saw Pat Robertson.
So let’s take a page from both. Robertson took over the GOP after 1988 by organizing locally, through his Christian Coalition. In Capra’s “Meet John Doe,” the same thing happened. The John Doe clubs had a central structure, but were all organized on the local level. They had a simple premise – know your neighbor. And when you knew your neighbor, you turned him (or her) from a stranger to a friend, from an outsider to an insider. You could help them. And in that people became united. At the end of the film it wasn’t the girl, and it wasn’t the moguls, who talked John Doe out of jumping off the building. It was the people.
The movie served, in 1941, as a wake-up call against fascism. A media mogul had organized the Does into a mob, into a tool for his personal power, and that of his friends. But in finding each other, the Does found they didn’t need the mogul, or any single leader. They could each take turns, each in a cause they cared about. Working together they took back control over their own lives.
Isn’t that what we want? Isn’t that what Meetups are all about?
So use these tools, and stay in touch. I’m here when you need me, and I know you’re here, too.
Together we can still take our country back, and we will. One life at a time.
Why were we so naïve as to think the nation could be taken back with a few months of rallies, a couple of bats, and the most attractive (in a political sense) Presidential candidate in decades?
Answer: we’re Americans.
But power isn’t given. It must be seized. When both the media and politicians of all stripes turn on you, the only answer is to change the game.
This campaign is the start of that process, not the end. We now have the tools, and the people power we need, to take this country back. But it won’t happen at once. It will happen one town at a time, one race at a time, one issue at a time.
We know what we stand for. Deanism, if I might coin a phrase, favors balanced budgets, progressive taxes, social diversity, a cleaner environment, a bias toward small business and a foreign policy based on American values. We can, we must, start fighting for those values in our towns.
Take my town. I live in Georgia. By conventional political calculation that’s hopeless ground. Maybe, in the short run, it is. But we have Atlanta here, we have a million-person county dominated by black folks. We have more young, creative Dean-type voters than any other state in the South.
We also have needs and issues. Right now the State Legislature is moving to put a gay marriage ban into our Constitution, trampling the rights of the Community Church that might marry gay people. We have an education department taking science out of our schools, by degrees, backing off on the word “evolution” but dumbing things down behind the scenes. We have people driving 90 minutes and more, each way, to work, and more subdivisions sprouting further out. Our water supply is fought-over among three states, and Atlanta (a city of 400,000) faces a $3 billion sewer bill it can’t pay. For starters.
We can win back this state. But we’re going to have to rebuild from the ground-up, from the neighborhood-up, finding small fights we can win, organizing block-by-block. We have the tools to do this, now. We have the people to do this, now. We have the support, in each other, to do this, now.
In the wake of Wisconsin the question is do we have the will?
Dean ran to the right of most Democrats on many issues. He was to the right of Kerry on the budget, on health care, even on the War. Our failures aren’t his alone. They’re collective. We scared people. There were so many of us, in our orange hats, in our firm belief. What we saw as a joyful crowd looked to outsiders like an angry mob.
We saw Frank Capra. They saw Pat Robertson.
So let’s take a page from both. Robertson took over the GOP after 1988 by organizing locally, through his Christian Coalition. In Capra’s “Meet John Doe,” the same thing happened. The John Doe clubs had a central structure, but were all organized on the local level. They had a simple premise – know your neighbor. And when you knew your neighbor, you turned him (or her) from a stranger to a friend, from an outsider to an insider. You could help them. And in that people became united. At the end of the film it wasn’t the girl, and it wasn’t the moguls, who talked John Doe out of jumping off the building. It was the people.
The movie served, in 1941, as a wake-up call against fascism. A media mogul had organized the Does into a mob, into a tool for his personal power, and that of his friends. But in finding each other, the Does found they didn’t need the mogul, or any single leader. They could each take turns, each in a cause they cared about. Working together they took back control over their own lives.
Isn’t that what we want? Isn’t that what Meetups are all about?
So use these tools, and stay in touch. I’m here when you need me, and I know you’re here, too.
Together we can still take our country back, and we will. One life at a time.
Steve Grossman plans to leave Dean, back Kerry http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/16/politics/campaign/16DEAN.html?hp
this certainly puts Grossman's earlier comments in context.
FIRE GROSSMAN.
The chairman of Howard Dean's presidential campaign said on Sunday that he would leave and shift his support to Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts if Dr. Dean lost the Wisconsin primary on Tuesday, an outcome he sees as all but inevitable.
"If Howard Dean does not win the Wisconsin primary, I will reach out to John Kerry unless he reaches out to me first," said the chairman, Steven Grossman, who was chairman of Mr. Kerry's 1996 Senate race. "I will make it clear that I will do anything and everything I can to help him become the next president, and I will do anything and everything I can to build bridges with the Dean organization."
Advertisement
The comments by Mr. Grossman, a former chairman of the Democratic National Committee who has known Mr. Kerry for 34 years, came as Dr. Dean faced growing pressure from aides and outside backers to abandon his quest. But while many leading supporters and staff members expect him to either quit the campaign altogether or radically scale it back by the end of this week, the candidate remained steadfast Sunday that he would soldier on.
FIRE GROSSMAN.
featured comment: Graff4Dean2004
I've though about this long and hard. You know what? They've been against us the whole time.
They made fun of us when Dean was an asterisk. They laughed at us as Dean began to define the terms of the debate. They told us that Dean was unelectable when we trounced everyone else in the polls. They attacked us when we refused to bow down. They mocked us when we didn't score as well as we had hoped. Now, they tell us to give up? Why?
Why should we give up on something that we have poured so much of our energy, lives, and love into? Why should we listen to the pundits and the kerry folks, who have been proven wrong time and time again throughout this campaign?
This campaign has changed my life. It has given me hope again. It has inspired me to consider a run for office myself, when I've moved beyond UCSB. All of you have made me feel like I could actually have the power to influence our nation's future, whether your names have been Dana, Aziz, Anna, or whoever (sorry to leave folks out).
I'm not giving up on Dean. On March 2nd, I'm going to vote for Dean in the CA primary, and I'm going to enjoy it. If he doesn't win, he doesn't win. Call me a lunatic, but I'd like to think that he can.
I've had it with defeatism. Damnit, we've worked too hard for this, and with God as my witness, I will not give up until the last vote is cast. I hope that others will do the same.
~Adam
Sunday, February 15, 2004
debate reaction open thread http://www.npr.org/programs/atc/index.html
Don't forget that Dean is also on NPR's All Things Considered tonight.
Aides Want Dean to Quit http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=1&u=/ap/20040215/ap_on_el_pr/dean_22
This story suggests that top aides, including Steven Grossman (national chairman of the DFA campaign), are pressuring Dean to drop out if he loses WI:
The OBlog has a denial by Neel, but I'm starting to regard Neel's credibility on these kinds of things to be equivalent to Muhammad Saeed al Salaf.
But I haveto admit that the idea of converting our movement into something aimed at reforming Congress from the gerry-mandered, incumbent-dominated, playing-it-safe inertial mass it has ecome would be a great use of our resources - and a good check on Kerry to keep him on the path of Dean's Legacy. I want Dean to be active until the convention but not at the expense of damaging the nominee, and this seems like a good alternative. The campaign still has millions of dollars and they could coast on it, leaving Dean on the ballot so all of us who don't want to rubber-stamp Kerry caan cast our protest vote. Dean would amass a lot of delegates and have a chance to speak at the convention before endorsing Kerry. And the grassroots movement would have a new purpose.
What's not to like?
Steve Grossman, national chairman of Dean's campaign, said the former Vermont governor would seek to convert his grass-roots network into a movement that helps expand the party and elect the Democratic nominee — "and, obviously, that looks likely to be John Kerry."
The OBlog has a denial by Neel, but I'm starting to regard Neel's credibility on these kinds of things to be equivalent to Muhammad Saeed al Salaf.
But I haveto admit that the idea of converting our movement into something aimed at reforming Congress from the gerry-mandered, incumbent-dominated, playing-it-safe inertial mass it has ecome would be a great use of our resources - and a good check on Kerry to keep him on the path of Dean's Legacy. I want Dean to be active until the convention but not at the expense of damaging the nominee, and this seems like a good alternative. The campaign still has millions of dollars and they could coast on it, leaving Dean on the ballot so all of us who don't want to rubber-stamp Kerry caan cast our protest vote. Dean would amass a lot of delegates and have a chance to speak at the convention before endorsing Kerry. And the grassroots movement would have a new purpose.
What's not to like?
Just for the sake of argument...
Suppose you wanted to come up with a new political party, one that placed great emphasis on policy driven by honest fact, one whose special interest was the average citizen and not a faceless corporation, one that held its own candidates accountable on the basis of character and principle first and foremost. Suppose you envisioned this new party as growing from the grassroots upwards, via meetups and blogs, email lists and forums, and dispensed with the traditional mechanism of two-pary politics.
What would you suggest for a name for that party?
What would you suggest for a name for that party?
transcript: Dean on Fox News Sunday http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,111452,00.html
fantastic interview. Excerpts:
WALLACE: Governor, it almost seems to have gotten personal for you. Do you somehow feel that Kerry has stolen your message and is posing as something that he isn't?
DEAN: Well, they've all stolen my message, which actually is a good thing. It's one of the things I wanted to do, is to get the Democratic Party moving again. It was sort of moribund after the Bush election and after the 2002 elections, they all sort of caved in Washington.
So, I think the fact that they've taken my message as a very good thing. That's one of the things I wanted. But now the question is, is this conviction or is this convenience? And only time will tell.
[...]
WALLACE: We've also been told that you have no charter, no schedule booked after Wednesday. Is that true?
DEAN: That is true. We're going to reassess — we're going to keep going, no matter what, because I think there are a lot of people all over this country who want to rebuild the party and rebuild America in a different way. And I think they — a lot of those people are delegates in New York and Illinois and beyond.
Florida, for example, votes on March 9th. I have no intention of depriving Florida of a meaningful role in politics twice, once in 2000, once in 2004.
So we're going to keep going, one way or the other. The question is, what's our schedule going to look like? We need to take stock and figure out where we are.
WALLACE: But, sir, is it fair to ask your supporters, who have given so much to your campaign already, to throw what some would consider good money after bad?
DEAN: Well, we have enough money to keep going. We're not going to have to put on a huge fund-raising push. My supporters actually are the people who talked me out of quitting after Wisconsin. There are just a lot of people who don't — I just got a letter from a congressman today who says this has got to go on in some way. And we're going to figure out how to make this go on.
[...]
WALLACE: Party officials have reportedly asked all of the candidates to pledge that they will help raise money for the eventual nominee. Do you promise that you will turn to your donor base and ask them to support whoever the nominee is?
DEAN: We've already done that. We've already been to dinners that help to support the nominee, and we'll continue to do that.
[...]
We are going to change this country. This country's the greatest country in the world, but it is great because it has had changes from time to time, when Washington got sclerotic.
Washington is sclerotic right now. Both parties are wallowing in their own special interests. There are significant policy changes, which is why I think it would be a huge advantage to have a Democratic president over a Republican president.
Washington needs a good kick in the butt. That's what we're going to give them.
Matthew Gross blog http://www.mathewgross.com/blog/
Matthew Gross has left the campaign and started his own blog. He is also interviewed in the American Prospect by Mrs. Garance Franke-Ruta:
Franke-Ruta also has a blog at The American Prospect, called Campaign Dispatches.
Are you considering or would you consider working for another campaign (presidential or other)?
I'll consider anything. The first order of business is to send George Bush to a crushing defeat in November. I'll put my shoulder to the wheel, in some capacity at least.
Why did you leave the Dean campaign?
For family medical reasons, primarily. Nothing extraordinary or dramatic. It was time.
You were brought onto the Dean campaign by Joe Trippi. What was it like to work there after he left?
I didn't work in the office much after Trippi left -- I had to attend to some personal matters. I was in and out. Obviously many people were sad to see Joe go, but Roy Neel was welcomed with open arms and is doing a fine job.
Do you have any plans to work with Trippi in the future?
We've only just begun to talk about it. I'll probably visit him on his farm sometime in the next week or two. I'm sure we'll be up all night drinking Diet Pepsis and talking about what might be next.
Franke-Ruta also has a blog at The American Prospect, called Campaign Dispatches.
Saturday, February 14, 2004
Burlington Dominates Stowe 6-1
The Stowe Raiders (my hometown team) gave Burlington a good run for their money in Burlington's Leddy Arena until the end of the third period. Governor Dean's home team, captained by his son Paul, routed the Raiders for four unanswered goals to make the final tally 6-1.
We had a really good time, and it was a bitter sweet victory for the Governor as it was Paul's last regular season game of his high school career. The Governor said they weren't sure if he was going to pursue hockey in college next year. Good Luck Paul! You certainly have the talent to play where you want from what I saw.
Judy and the Governor ran into his old roommate from Yale (and Aspen) at the game. Their kid was playing against their kid thing. We all had some real laughs. Turns out, I play hockey with his old chum on Friday nights. Man, small world, huh? Or is it just Vermont?
Well, it's Wisconsin tomorrow--early. I'm going to try and catch the Governor at a church he's scheduled to go to. We have a lot of praying to do. See ya'll that can make it there. Wish I had a laptop...
Crossposted with DeanTV.org.
Badger Herald interview http://www.badgerherald.com/vnews/display.v/ART/2004/02/13/402c561d70b84
not a puff piece! The Herald is the finest student newspaper in the known universe. The Daily Cardinal is the worst newspaper in Madison but the second-finest newspaper in the known universe. My alma mater biases are not showing. Great excerpt:
BH: What is your reaction to the large number of 18- to 24-year-olds who have come out to support your campaign? Why do you think that is?
HD: They are helping a lot -- their energy is helping enormously, and they give money. They don't give much money, but their stories are inspirational. We had a woman at Penn State that sold her bike for $100 and said she sold it for democracy. It's amazing.
BH: How are you going to get those same people to the polls?
HD: Well, they do come to the polls, but the question is, do they come to the polls enough? First of all, here's why I think we are attractive to 18- to 24-year-olds: I don't talk down to people. I mean, I am very aggressive in what I think and I am clear about laying out my views, but I respect other people's opinions right back. I listen to what people are saying and I process it. Most politicians don't do that-they talk down to people. Adults put up with that, but people your age don't because they are coming right from a time when everyone talks down to you and you are sick of it.
Secondly, I will say things that other people won't say that I know are true. All that crap that all the other candidates use to say that Howard Dean created a gaffe a day. That was just manufactured nonsense. I would say things like "We are not any safer since Saddam has been captured," and that's absolutely true. The next week, we lost 23 more people over in Iraq and American airliners are being escorted in by F-16s. That doesn't mean Saddam isn't a terrible person -- I'm glad he's captured -- but the fact is that we aren't any safer. I will say things that people your age, who have a very low tolerance for hypocrisy, recognize as true, that other adults won't say, and I think that is very appealing.
The third thing is I think long-term, and people your age think long-term. I expected people your age to be very interested in the environment, to be very interested in college loans. What I was shocked at was how many people your age brought up the budget deficit. Adults don't do that stuff because they figure, "What the hell, I'll be dead in 15 years." You guys are going to be the ones to pick up the bill, and I think that is very perceptive .... My idea of leadership is different than everybody else's in politics. My idea of leadership is that 80 percent of us do the same thing as everybody does well: we listen to the voters, we do what they want, we look at the polls, blah, blah, blah. The 20 percent that they don't get is that leadership is also saying what you think, even if they don't agree, and bringing people to you. Americans, especially older Americans, would rather hear the nice things. What they don't want to hear is the tough things. I am not warm and fuzzy -- people have accused me of that -- but goddamnit, this country is in trouble because we keep electing warm and fuzzy people who won't address the issues. I think people your age see that.
To Oppose a War http://www.crescatsententia.org/archives/week_2004_02_08.html#003038
Crescateer Amanda Butler (actual political orientation unknown) points to this article suggesting that Abraham Lincoln's opposition to the Mexican War cost him his Congressional seat. This reminds me of one of the reasons I have for supporting Dean: In my judgement, his "far-left hippie" reputation stems entirely from the fact that he opposed the invasion of Iraq. And I think that regardless of how you felt about the war, you have to admit that there was a strong case against it, especially now that the WMD rationale has completely dried up.
It was because he opposed the war that commentators began talking about Howard Dean as the new McGovern, the original concern about his electability. This post by Daniel Drezner shows how many Democratic foreign policy advisors were against Dean solely because of his anti-war views, and the impression I at least took away was that this was politicall driven. The United States cannot afford to become a nation where it is political suicide to oppose a war. Even Steven Den Beste understands the inherent dangers. Because if the McGovern principle can apply to someone like Howard Dean who supported every other military action since Vietnam and even left solid evidence he would act alone if necessary, then it can apply to everyone.
If Dean loses, this will not be the only reason, but I believe it will be a huge part of the reason. And that is part of why I consider this campaign important, not just to change Presidents, but to change America. Future generations are depending on it. Even a respectable showing would leave the door open for future politicians deciding between career and principle in matters of war and peace.
It was because he opposed the war that commentators began talking about Howard Dean as the new McGovern, the original concern about his electability. This post by Daniel Drezner shows how many Democratic foreign policy advisors were against Dean solely because of his anti-war views, and the impression I at least took away was that this was politicall driven. The United States cannot afford to become a nation where it is political suicide to oppose a war. Even Steven Den Beste understands the inherent dangers. Because if the McGovern principle can apply to someone like Howard Dean who supported every other military action since Vietnam and even left solid evidence he would act alone if necessary, then it can apply to everyone.
If Dean loses, this will not be the only reason, but I believe it will be a huge part of the reason. And that is part of why I consider this campaign important, not just to change Presidents, but to change America. Future generations are depending on it. Even a respectable showing would leave the door open for future politicians deciding between career and principle in matters of war and peace.
weekend open thread
Happy Valentine's Day!
brilliant ploy indeed http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=20040223&s=notebook022304_1
The New Republic has an editorial that was probably authored more by Jon Chait than Ryan Lizza, arguing that Dean is "blaming" his supporters for the decision to carry on after Wisconsin:
Since the editorial is so pedantic about the definition of "ploy", let's return the favor by examining the definition of "blame" :
Dean is not blaming the supporters. He is bending to their will. There has been a massive investment in time and money by the grassroots in the remaining 35+ states that have not yet voted, and though the media punditocracy thinks that it's over, actual democracy demands all the votes be counted. I'm not as confident as I was in Dean's chances of winning the Presidency, but I am 100% confident that Dean's presence in the race is partly why Kerry is saying the right things on the trail that are doing real damage to Bush. The continuation of teh Democratic primary is essential because it keeps pressure on the incumbent Administration, whose panic is palpable in their flailing about with marriage amendments and missions to mars. That real pressure generated by an active opposition primary is why Bush is scrambling to visit primary states such as South Carolina and New Hampshire to try and soak up some of the media glare, and why the press corp is galvanized enough to actually ask hard questions of the self-styled war leader about his own service record's continuing inconsistencies.
If the editors are correct, then the voters in 35 states are disenfranchised. Dean must continue on - and win enough delegates to hold Kerry to his rhetoric. It's about shaping the debate, and while we may prefer that Dean gets the top prize, actual change is no small consolation.
Dean insisted he simply meant "strategy"; the American Heritage dictionary defines "ploy" as "[a]n action calculated to ... gain an advantage indirectly or deviously."
And the dictionary definition is exactly what Dean revealed his do-or-die statement to be this week when he announced that he'd stay in the race no matter what--Wisconsin be damned. Worse, to justify his decision, Dean invoked the same followers he'd just tricked. Much as he used his supporters as cover when he opted out of the campaign finance system last fall--pointing to their ratification of the decision in an online referendum after he told them it "may be the only way to win this election"--Dean said he would stay in the race out of deference to them. "[H]ow am I going to resist all the people who are tugging at my sleeve ... saying, 'Don't quit'?" he asked.
Of course, Dean is ignoring all the people who want him out of the race--like the Democratic voters in 14 states who have yet to produce one victory for Dean; or the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees, which this week withdrew its endorsement of his candidacy; or even some of the Dean bloggers, who are asking why their man is going back on his word. "I gave additional money to the campaign on the assumption that [Wisconsin] was the last great stand. All or nothing," one posted on the Dean for America blog. "What's going on?" The answer is all too clear.
Since the editorial is so pedantic about the definition of "ploy", let's return the favor by examining the definition of "blame" :
These nouns denote a sense of responsibility for an offense. Blame stresses censure or punishment for a lapse or misdeed for which one is held accountable
Dean is not blaming the supporters. He is bending to their will. There has been a massive investment in time and money by the grassroots in the remaining 35+ states that have not yet voted, and though the media punditocracy thinks that it's over, actual democracy demands all the votes be counted. I'm not as confident as I was in Dean's chances of winning the Presidency, but I am 100% confident that Dean's presence in the race is partly why Kerry is saying the right things on the trail that are doing real damage to Bush. The continuation of teh Democratic primary is essential because it keeps pressure on the incumbent Administration, whose panic is palpable in their flailing about with marriage amendments and missions to mars. That real pressure generated by an active opposition primary is why Bush is scrambling to visit primary states such as South Carolina and New Hampshire to try and soak up some of the media glare, and why the press corp is galvanized enough to actually ask hard questions of the self-styled war leader about his own service record's continuing inconsistencies.
If the editors are correct, then the voters in 35 states are disenfranchised. Dean must continue on - and win enough delegates to hold Kerry to his rhetoric. It's about shaping the debate, and while we may prefer that Dean gets the top prize, actual change is no small consolation.
Joe Trippi's Moved On http://www.haloscan.com/comments.php?user=azizhp&comment=107669289185726794#167264
Joe Trippi is why Dean's principled message found a wider audience. No other reason. His influence on DFA is what provided the catalyst for DFA's influence upon the entire Democratic primary. I will always have a profound respect for Joe and hope that I actually get to meet him in person - until then, I'll have to settle for the occassional meeting online (link above goes to a comment Joe just left on Dean Nation).
Since leaving DFA, Joe started his own blog at ChangeForAmerica. It's missing some important blogs from its blogroll, ahem, ahem :) but it already has a number of posts and will likely be where Joe fleshes out his views and advice on the role of the internet in politics.
To be honest, I have a number of critiques and disagreements with the conventional wisdom about how the internet factored into Dean's campaign. Probably the single biggest one was that the official blog ended up being more a hindrance than a help, because it actually short-circuited the influence that the independent Dean-sphere (especially Dean Nation) had upon the campaign. Prior to the O-Blog, Joe posted here regularly, and we had a real sense that the campaign was watching us and paying attention (our best success being the promotion of Meetup). However, once the O-blog debuted, the focus on the external blogs seemed to diminish. We never did get a response to our Dean Nation Interview, our critiques of campaign decisions such as the quality of the ad campaign were not acknowledged let alone addressed, and there was never any real attempt by the camnpaign to leverage the ritical mass it had built during the boom-time of Dean's front-runnerhood. Some of the things that could have been done: a real visit by Dean himself to the blog or the Zonkboard, actual posts by the campaign here, a Slashdot Interview with the 10 highest-moderated questions answered by Dean (or Joe), and most importantly, a Scoop-run site to create a real community of independent thinkers (as Kos has pioneered). My sources from within the campaign say that there was a determined push to move to Scoop by several of the technology advisors within the campaign, but it was rejected. That's probably the biggest missed opportunity of all.
Insread, the o-blog became a simple translation of normal fund-raising appeals and campaign updates to the medium of the web rather than newsletter or mailing. The huge email list was used in exactly the same way as a snail-mail list, even though email as a medium is so much richer in potential - imagine if there had been actual policy debates (moderated) with Dean himself weighing in?
The o-blog was a good way to build readers, but ity could not sustain an active discussion or debate of the kind required for true ChangeForAmerica. In fact, ANY blog-model of front-page posts followed by linear comments is inherently flawed in exactly the same way. What is needed for a true seed of something new is a way fpor all participants to have an active voice, and the community as a whole able to collectively moderate its own ideas upwards on merit.
Here's something that I want to see: a comment system like Haloscan that allows for user registration, and moderated threading like at Slashdot or Kuro5hin or Kos. But that still isn't as good as a true Slash/Scoop system which provides a mechanism for a "comment" to actually graduate to a full-fledged fromnt-page post, all by the collective action of the community itself.
I'll be watching Joe's blog, but running on MT (or blogger, for that matter) is at present a route to the status quo. Real Change is going to require the next generation of internet community-building, as well as a larger comitment from the principal politicians to cede control to the grassroots in a real sense, not the essentially illusory way that the O-blog did.
Since leaving DFA, Joe started his own blog at ChangeForAmerica. It's missing some important blogs from its blogroll, ahem, ahem :) but it already has a number of posts and will likely be where Joe fleshes out his views and advice on the role of the internet in politics.
To be honest, I have a number of critiques and disagreements with the conventional wisdom about how the internet factored into Dean's campaign. Probably the single biggest one was that the official blog ended up being more a hindrance than a help, because it actually short-circuited the influence that the independent Dean-sphere (especially Dean Nation) had upon the campaign. Prior to the O-Blog, Joe posted here regularly, and we had a real sense that the campaign was watching us and paying attention (our best success being the promotion of Meetup). However, once the O-blog debuted, the focus on the external blogs seemed to diminish. We never did get a response to our Dean Nation Interview, our critiques of campaign decisions such as the quality of the ad campaign were not acknowledged let alone addressed, and there was never any real attempt by the camnpaign to leverage the ritical mass it had built during the boom-time of Dean's front-runnerhood. Some of the things that could have been done: a real visit by Dean himself to the blog or the Zonkboard, actual posts by the campaign here, a Slashdot Interview with the 10 highest-moderated questions answered by Dean (or Joe), and most importantly, a Scoop-run site to create a real community of independent thinkers (as Kos has pioneered). My sources from within the campaign say that there was a determined push to move to Scoop by several of the technology advisors within the campaign, but it was rejected. That's probably the biggest missed opportunity of all.
Insread, the o-blog became a simple translation of normal fund-raising appeals and campaign updates to the medium of the web rather than newsletter or mailing. The huge email list was used in exactly the same way as a snail-mail list, even though email as a medium is so much richer in potential - imagine if there had been actual policy debates (moderated) with Dean himself weighing in?
The o-blog was a good way to build readers, but ity could not sustain an active discussion or debate of the kind required for true ChangeForAmerica. In fact, ANY blog-model of front-page posts followed by linear comments is inherently flawed in exactly the same way. What is needed for a true seed of something new is a way fpor all participants to have an active voice, and the community as a whole able to collectively moderate its own ideas upwards on merit.
Here's something that I want to see: a comment system like Haloscan that allows for user registration, and moderated threading like at Slashdot or Kuro5hin or Kos. But that still isn't as good as a true Slash/Scoop system which provides a mechanism for a "comment" to actually graduate to a full-fledged fromnt-page post, all by the collective action of the community itself.
I'll be watching Joe's blog, but running on MT (or blogger, for that matter) is at present a route to the status quo. Real Change is going to require the next generation of internet community-building, as well as a larger comitment from the principal politicians to cede control to the grassroots in a real sense, not the essentially illusory way that the O-blog did.
Friday, February 13, 2004
$39,273.52, 87% http://www.deanforamerica.com/deannation
We are so close to our $40,000 mark! and so very far from our goal of raising $45,000 by the Wisconsin primary...
Remember, success in Wisconsin - and beyond - hinges on we the grassroots stepping up to the plate. Let's do what we can to make sure that Dean isn't fighting alone!
Remember, success in Wisconsin - and beyond - hinges on we the grassroots stepping up to the plate. Let's do what we can to make sure that Dean isn't fighting alone!
Dean Not At A Loss... http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/columnist/shapiro/2004-02-12-hype_x.htm
Terrific article by Walter Shapiro about Dean's candor and refusal to offer up the platitudes of all the other candidates. This column reminds us all of what drew us to Dean in the first place, and why it's important to continue to support him as long as he remains in the race. If only some of his unabashed outspokenness would rub off on the rest of the field - he's already forced all the others back onto Democratic themes, perhaps he can also bring some spirit to the others as well. Keep giving 'em Hell, Howard!
UPDATE: (Aziz) here's a good excerpt:
It's exactly THIS that is why we fight for Dean.
UPDATE: (Aziz) here's a good excerpt:
Near the end of a question-and-answer session Thursday morning with voters at the 19th-century Oshkosh Opera House, a man in the balcony tossed a softball in Dean's direction. Identifying himself as a disgruntled 2000 Bush voter, the questioner lamented the president's failure to lessen partisan enmity in Washington and asked Dean what he would do to end gridlock on Capitol Hill.
The standard political answer would have been to piously vow to recreate the Era of Good Feeling in Washington, despite provocations from the opposition party. But such gooey prattle about fostering bipartisanship simply does not fit Dean's nature.
Squinting at his questioner through the glare of the TV lights, Dean said bluntly, "I haven't promised to go to Washington and unify everybody. And there's a reason for my not making that promise. I think it's important to stand up for what you believe in."
Then Dean uttered a few combative lines that encapsulated the strengths and weaknesses of his boom-or-bust campaign: "I'm not going to Washington to be a nice guy. I'm going to Washington to kick the right wing out."
It's exactly THIS that is why we fight for Dean.
Thursday, February 12, 2004
blasphemy?
Would it be terrible if Dean was Edwards' VP? Discuss.
The harder struggle http://blog.deanforamerica.com/archives/003668.html
The Dean Democrats - inspired to run for public office by Dean. This is the seed of which I spoke earlier, the real legacy of this campaign.
Clark to endorse Kerry http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A36821-2004Feb12.html
early reports are that Clark will oin Kerry on te trail tomorrow in Wisconsin:
well, there goes my Dean/Clark ticket :) I had gambled that Clark would gamble on the chance of being someone's VP rather than settling for a cabinet post, but he's decided to play it safe. I doubt Clark will be offerred a VP slot under Kerrry, but then again, who knows? Maybe the "all-military" ticket is attractive to the shadowy Democratic Party puppet masters.
I am curious what Clark grassroots supporters think of this, but unfortunately there hasn't been much activity at the various Clark forums that I went looking for.
More than ever, I believe Dean has to carry on. He is already credited with transforming the rhetoric of the Democratic establishment candidates. Now he has to push through to the ocnvention, continuing to amass delegates, so that he can hold the others to that rhetoric. If Dean can become the Shadow Kerry (as opposed to Edwards the Anti-Kerry) then he may be able to influence the party platform at the convention and shape the debate for the general election.
Wisconsin is one week away. If Dean wins, it will have been a landmark primary. But even if Dean doesn't take the first spot, we should still consider it part of the route to which we achieve the goal we all share - taking this country back.
Wesley Clark will endorse presidential contender John Kerry, a high-profile boost for the front-runner as he looks to wrap up the party's nomination, according to Democratic officials.
With next week's Wisconsin primary looming, Clark plans to join Kerry at a campaign stop in Madison, Wis., Friday to make a formal endorsement, said officials, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Clark spokesman Matt Bennett would not confirm the endorsement, and would only say, "General Clark is looking forward to going to Wisconsin to be with Senator Kerry."
well, there goes my Dean/Clark ticket :) I had gambled that Clark would gamble on the chance of being someone's VP rather than settling for a cabinet post, but he's decided to play it safe. I doubt Clark will be offerred a VP slot under Kerrry, but then again, who knows? Maybe the "all-military" ticket is attractive to the shadowy Democratic Party puppet masters.
I am curious what Clark grassroots supporters think of this, but unfortunately there hasn't been much activity at the various Clark forums that I went looking for.
More than ever, I believe Dean has to carry on. He is already credited with transforming the rhetoric of the Democratic establishment candidates. Now he has to push through to the ocnvention, continuing to amass delegates, so that he can hold the others to that rhetoric. If Dean can become the Shadow Kerry (as opposed to Edwards the Anti-Kerry) then he may be able to influence the party platform at the convention and shape the debate for the general election.
Wisconsin is one week away. If Dean wins, it will have been a landmark primary. But even if Dean doesn't take the first spot, we should still consider it part of the route to which we achieve the goal we all share - taking this country back.
Stop Your Moping http://blog.deanforamerica.com/archives/003677.html
To hear the o-blog tell it, everything in Wisconsin is going quite well.
The crowds are big, the Doctor is "on fire," there are Dean buttons and banners everywhere you look.
Yet here, and in the media, everything is doom-and-gloom. Chuck(lehead) Todd at the National Journal is offering Dean "career advice," suggesting he "get out now" or wind up a national joke, a la Jerry Brown. If he couldn't win Washington (where he didn't advertise, but still came up with a solid 31%) he can't win anywhere, according to Chucklehead.
The Washington Media is in full-throat roar against us now. Don't turn on a TV, especially not cable. You're bound to be depressed. It's over, goes the universal chorus, over-and-over again, hoping it will create a self-fulfilling prophecy.
But who are those people? Howard Kurtz' wife is a GOP consultant. Judy Woodruff's husband Al Hunt is a Wall Street Journal reporter. David Bradley, owner of The National Journal, told an interviewer half his company's revenues come from the health care business.
When a party starts taking advice from its adversaries it should fold its tent. Why the rush to crown Kerry? The Media (except for Fox, owned by Rupert Murdoch) admits it over-played "the scream," in fact later evidence shows they made the "scandal" up out of whole cloth. Time Warner is one of Kerry's biggest corporate backers.
What I'm saying is we have a cause here worth fighting for, and we should fight for it until the Last Dog Dies (as Clinton once said). Maybe that dog will die. But no one should cross that bridge unless we get to it.
On Wisconsin.
The crowds are big, the Doctor is "on fire," there are Dean buttons and banners everywhere you look.
Yet here, and in the media, everything is doom-and-gloom. Chuck(lehead) Todd at the National Journal is offering Dean "career advice," suggesting he "get out now" or wind up a national joke, a la Jerry Brown. If he couldn't win Washington (where he didn't advertise, but still came up with a solid 31%) he can't win anywhere, according to Chucklehead.
The Washington Media is in full-throat roar against us now. Don't turn on a TV, especially not cable. You're bound to be depressed. It's over, goes the universal chorus, over-and-over again, hoping it will create a self-fulfilling prophecy.
But who are those people? Howard Kurtz' wife is a GOP consultant. Judy Woodruff's husband Al Hunt is a Wall Street Journal reporter. David Bradley, owner of The National Journal, told an interviewer half his company's revenues come from the health care business.
When a party starts taking advice from its adversaries it should fold its tent. Why the rush to crown Kerry? The Media (except for Fox, owned by Rupert Murdoch) admits it over-played "the scream," in fact later evidence shows they made the "scandal" up out of whole cloth. Time Warner is one of Kerry's biggest corporate backers.
What I'm saying is we have a cause here worth fighting for, and we should fight for it until the Last Dog Dies (as Clinton once said). Maybe that dog will die. But no one should cross that bridge unless we get to it.
On Wisconsin.
Wednesday, February 11, 2004
Who Are We?
Heath: Vermont, 36 year old Dean blogger, looking for the right story, looking to tell the truth.
Busted: FEC filings show Kerry, Gephardt backers behind ads linking Dean to bin Laden http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A30484-2004Feb10.html
The link above goes to the WaPo article describing the coalition who got together to stop Dean and us in Iowa. This is just priceless, folks. The group includes former NJ Senator Robert "Torch" Torricelli, who was ushered from the Senate after he was caught accepting bribes. Torricelli, upon his exit from the Senate in late in 2002, stated he would still be involved in politics via 527 organisations, and lo and behold, he donated $50,000 (link goes to copy of FEC document) to Americans for Jobs, Healthcare & Slanderous, er, Progressive Values. Also involved were several unions supporting Dick Gephardt: The International Longshoremen's Association, Laborers International Union and International Association of Machinists, which gave $50,000 each; the International Association of Ironworkers, $25,000; and the International Brotherhood of Boilermakers, $5,000. Other large contributors include SlimFast foods tycoon S. Daniel Abraham and Leo Hindery, who heads up the Yankees Entertainment & Sports Network; they both gave $100,000 to stop us. Americans for Jobs & Healthcare took in $663,000 last year and spent $626,840.
When these ads were on the air, we tried to gather as much info as possible about who was behind them (see our archives here and here). At the time, rumors were floating around that Gephardt backers were the major contributors, and a couple of the unions even stepped forward to disavow them (thanks, guys). I think many of us suspected that Kerry had connections to these people, but there was never any hard proof. Now as it stands, this is still an indirect connection, but only because 527s are supposed to act independently of the campaigns. That doesn't mean 527s are independent; just that they are supposed to be. Pardon me, but I don't believe that the entire Kerry campaign was oblivious to the fact that one of their biggest and most powerful fundraisers was part of the stop Dean movement.
While the ad was airing, Joe Trippi publicly called for the other campaigns to disavow this ad, saying:
Does anyone else remember Willie Horton? I equate the OBL ad with the ad used by Bush senior to smear Michael Dukakis in 1988. The common strain is that both ads played on the viewer's fear. Sound familiar? The Bush administration has been playing on our fear of the unknown since September 12, 2001. Why did the our opponents sink to that level? That action really speaks to the real difference between our campaign and the others, which is that we are a campaign of hope, not fear.
I'm sure many of us have been astounded at the level of fearmongering coming from the Bush administration. Is the world a scary place? Yes. Are there "gathering threats"? Sure (hello, North Korea!). But does that mean I have to live my every waking moment holed up in a duct-taped room? Does it mean that I shouldn't go into tall buildings because the "evil" guys might blow me up? Hell no, and a real leader should be able to inspire us to not be afraid in the face of threats, to stand tall against those who'd love to see America fall to ashes, and to be hopeful that we can weather this storm. Howard Dean, from day one, has inspired me and given me hope. I don't fear the future; I embrace it. And for anyone to equate Dean with a world where we live in fear, well, it just goes to show they still don't get it. And shame, shame on them for playing on America's fear.
update: Kos has more on the Kerry connections here. Turns out Kerry's #1 contributor helped fund these ads, and it looks like the Torch may have broken some when he transferred his Senate campaign funds to the 527... Interesting, stuff, folks. Go read the whole thing.
When these ads were on the air, we tried to gather as much info as possible about who was behind them (see our archives here and here). At the time, rumors were floating around that Gephardt backers were the major contributors, and a couple of the unions even stepped forward to disavow them (thanks, guys). I think many of us suspected that Kerry had connections to these people, but there was never any hard proof. Now as it stands, this is still an indirect connection, but only because 527s are supposed to act independently of the campaigns. That doesn't mean 527s are independent; just that they are supposed to be. Pardon me, but I don't believe that the entire Kerry campaign was oblivious to the fact that one of their biggest and most powerful fundraisers was part of the stop Dean movement.
While the ad was airing, Joe Trippi publicly called for the other campaigns to disavow this ad, saying:
Democrats are better than this. This type of ad represents everything that is wrong with our political process today -- polluting our airwaves with smears on other candidates that have nothing to do with legitimate policy differences. Ads like this are the reason that less than half of the voting population in America bothers to go to the polls.
We Democrats should be committing ourselves to bringing more people into the process instead of resorting to tactics that cause more people to lose faith in politics altogether. Our campaign is committed to inspiring people to believe in their democracy again -- challenging 2 million people to donate $100 each to take back their country.
Our party must be about more than just changing presidents -- it must be dedicated to changing our country's politics. I hope you'll join me in denouncing this ad and demanding it be pulled from the airwaves immediately.
Does anyone else remember Willie Horton? I equate the OBL ad with the ad used by Bush senior to smear Michael Dukakis in 1988. The common strain is that both ads played on the viewer's fear. Sound familiar? The Bush administration has been playing on our fear of the unknown since September 12, 2001. Why did the our opponents sink to that level? That action really speaks to the real difference between our campaign and the others, which is that we are a campaign of hope, not fear.
I'm sure many of us have been astounded at the level of fearmongering coming from the Bush administration. Is the world a scary place? Yes. Are there "gathering threats"? Sure (hello, North Korea!). But does that mean I have to live my every waking moment holed up in a duct-taped room? Does it mean that I shouldn't go into tall buildings because the "evil" guys might blow me up? Hell no, and a real leader should be able to inspire us to not be afraid in the face of threats, to stand tall against those who'd love to see America fall to ashes, and to be hopeful that we can weather this storm. Howard Dean, from day one, has inspired me and given me hope. I don't fear the future; I embrace it. And for anyone to equate Dean with a world where we live in fear, well, it just goes to show they still don't get it. And shame, shame on them for playing on America's fear.
update: Kos has more on the Kerry connections here. Turns out Kerry's #1 contributor helped fund these ads, and it looks like the Torch may have broken some when he transferred his Senate campaign funds to the 527... Interesting, stuff, folks. Go read the whole thing.
Why Wisconsin? http://www.twincities.com/mld/pioneerpress/news/local/7901754.htm
Sunday's Pioneer Press has an AP article on the history of the Wisconsin primary.
Remember, first, that what we're seeing now was all part of Neel's plan, formulated right after New Hampshire, to overturn Kerry. Ignore February 3, do well on the 7th, let the Southerners get knocked out on the 10th, then win Wisconsin and turn things around heading into Super Tuesday.
Here, from the Pioneer Press story, is his thinking:
If Wisconsinites ever want their state to be an important place on the Presidential campaign calendar (and who doesn't) the only way to do it is to vote for Howard Dean. Dean has placed his bets on Wisconsin as Kennedy did, aiming to stop the Kerry freight train as Kennedy stopped Humphrey.
No one gave Kennedy a chance, either.
Remember, first, that what we're seeing now was all part of Neel's plan, formulated right after New Hampshire, to overturn Kerry. Ignore February 3, do well on the 7th, let the Southerners get knocked out on the 10th, then win Wisconsin and turn things around heading into Super Tuesday.
Here, from the Pioneer Press story, is his thinking:
The biggest Wisconsin primary, historians agree, came in 1960. The Democratic race pitted Kennedy against Minnesota Sen. Hubert Humphrey in the second primary in the country.
Few gave Kennedy a chance, said Richard Haney, a University of Wisconsin-Whitewater history professor and author of official histories of the Wisconsin Democratic and Republican parties.
"Kennedy was the outsider, the youngster," Haney said. "The question in Wisconsin was could Kennedy win in the Midwest, in Humphrey's country?"
But Kennedy outspent Humphrey, flying in for multiple appearances. Humphrey bounced around the state in a bus, said UW-Milwaukee political science professor John Bibby.
Kennedy won Wisconsin by more than 100,000 votes. The victory powered him to the nomination and persuaded more states to start primaries...
If Wisconsinites ever want their state to be an important place on the Presidential campaign calendar (and who doesn't) the only way to do it is to vote for Howard Dean. Dean has placed his bets on Wisconsin as Kennedy did, aiming to stop the Kerry freight train as Kennedy stopped Humphrey.
No one gave Kennedy a chance, either.
Clark out http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A30717-2004Feb10.html
as I predicted yesterday, Clark has dropped out of the race. My sense is that Clark will probably lie low during teh Wisconsin primary, but if he retains any desire to influence the debate, then he will make his endorsement of another candidate in advance of Super Tuesday in March. The best course of action for him remains being someone's Veep, though of course he likely would be willing to settle for SecDef.
If I were Clark, I'd be looking hard at Dean right now. The test remains how Dean fares in Wisconsin. A solid win, or even a strong second, should be enough to convince Clark of Dean's viability. The race here is to influence the debate, as Clark himself has noted, and that process of debate simply shuts down if the nominee is coronated by the media and the Democratic establishment. What is needed is a choice, that can drive the debate, and thus keep the pressure (and the media coverage) focused on Democratic issues.
Ultimately, having a contested primary means that Bush is left out in the cold, in terms of media share. And the Dems have been effective in using their joint appeaances to bash the disastrous policies of the Administration, bringing them to the attention of the wider audience. There is NO WAY the AWOL story would have gotten any traction if not for the primary, for example. Nor would the Plame Affair have legs, or the GOP theft of Dem computer memos. The Democratic primary is keeping the national debate alive and for this reason alone Dean must continue at all cost to the convention.
If Clark joins him, then we have a good shot at winning. But Dean has to continue regardless. Anything less means that ChangeForAmerica will be long in coming, indeed.
If I were Clark, I'd be looking hard at Dean right now. The test remains how Dean fares in Wisconsin. A solid win, or even a strong second, should be enough to convince Clark of Dean's viability. The race here is to influence the debate, as Clark himself has noted, and that process of debate simply shuts down if the nominee is coronated by the media and the Democratic establishment. What is needed is a choice, that can drive the debate, and thus keep the pressure (and the media coverage) focused on Democratic issues.
Ultimately, having a contested primary means that Bush is left out in the cold, in terms of media share. And the Dems have been effective in using their joint appeaances to bash the disastrous policies of the Administration, bringing them to the attention of the wider audience. There is NO WAY the AWOL story would have gotten any traction if not for the primary, for example. Nor would the Plame Affair have legs, or the GOP theft of Dem computer memos. The Democratic primary is keeping the national debate alive and for this reason alone Dean must continue at all cost to the convention.
If Clark joins him, then we have a good shot at winning. But Dean has to continue regardless. Anything less means that ChangeForAmerica will be long in coming, indeed.
Tuesday, February 10, 2004
The Vermont Woodchuck Breaks His Silence on Dean http://ctpolitics.net/columns/cook021004.htm
Paul Cook, a Vermont native who writes for CTPolitics.net, observes the following:
Cook also touches on the firing of Joe Trippi which he calls a "travesty," observing
Overall, the column has the belief that "it's all over" for the Dean campaign.
Update: This can be discussed on an open thread at CTPolitics.net here.
Howard Dean was never a class act. He was known to be rude and disrespectful of his opponents, both in elections and in battles with the legislature. Dean is not a man who has ever developed a sense of tact and diplomacy. Being a medical doctor, he is accustomed to having his opinions accepted without question, a character flaw that years of politics have failed to diminish. Telling it like it is can be refreshing for a time, but at some point a politician needs to become a statesman if he (or she) aspires to be top dog in the land. Dean never turned that corner.
Cook also touches on the firing of Joe Trippi which he calls a "travesty," observing
"After taking Dean from unknown to frontrunner with innovative use of Internet technology, Trippi gets the boot after the second loss. What Dean seems incapable of understanding is that it was Howard Dean, not Joe Trippi, who lost. Nobody cast a single ballot for Trippi. Dean blew his lead in New Hampshire all by himself."
Overall, the column has the belief that "it's all over" for the Dean campaign.
Update: This can be discussed on an open thread at CTPolitics.net here.
Clark about to drop out? http://www.tnr.com/blog/campaignjournal?pid=1307
Clark has reportedly canceled a fundraiser for tomorrow. Given his trouncing in both TN and VA by Edwards, it's clear that his Souther Candidate niche has been eclipsed by Edwards in much the same way that Kerry eclipsed his Military Candidate niche.
I don't know if Clark will even be willing to sign on with Dean as a joint ticket, but I sincerely hope that the Dean campaign is approaching him. Dean/Clark offers everything that Kerry or Edwards alone can, and substantially more. Given that Edwards is limited by federal matching funds, we might well be seeing a Kerry/Edwards dynamic soon if Dean beats him in Wisconsin, and so the advantages of Dean/Clark are going to be even more strategically essential.
Let's see what Clark does next. I suspect he will drop out tomorrow, and will lie low until Wisconsin's primary...
(link goes to Ryan Lizza;s Campaign Journal entry from on the road with Clark. The last line's the kicker.)
I don't know if Clark will even be willing to sign on with Dean as a joint ticket, but I sincerely hope that the Dean campaign is approaching him. Dean/Clark offers everything that Kerry or Edwards alone can, and substantially more. Given that Edwards is limited by federal matching funds, we might well be seeing a Kerry/Edwards dynamic soon if Dean beats him in Wisconsin, and so the advantages of Dean/Clark are going to be even more strategically essential.
Let's see what Clark does next. I suspect he will drop out tomorrow, and will lie low until Wisconsin's primary...
(link goes to Ryan Lizza;s Campaign Journal entry from on the road with Clark. The last line's the kicker.)
Trippi Watch, Primary Watch, and Folkbum in Wisconsin http://www.changeforamerica.com
Per WHOIS registration for www.changeforamerica.com:
Via the Kos diaries, I noticed that longtime Dean National folkbum is rallying with Dean tonight in Wisconsin. To sign up for the event, click here. It's at 5:30pm (sorry for the short notice; I just received this).
I also noticed this Virginia field report filed by Vet4Dean over at Kos's place, and Kos has the early exit polls on the main page.
Registrant:
Trippi, Joe (WJGMKIOYYD)
1029 N. Royal St. #350
Alexandria, VA 22314
US
Domain Name: CHANGEFORAMERICA.COM
Administrative Contact:
Trippi, Joe (37242257P) (deleted for privacy)
1029 N. Royal St. #350
Alexandria, VA 22314
US
(phone # deleted for privacy)
Record expires on 28-Jan-2014.
Record created on 28-Jan-2004.
Database last updated on 10-Feb-2004 15:39:11 EST.
Via the Kos diaries, I noticed that longtime Dean National folkbum is rallying with Dean tonight in Wisconsin. To sign up for the event, click here. It's at 5:30pm (sorry for the short notice; I just received this).
I also noticed this Virginia field report filed by Vet4Dean over at Kos's place, and Kos has the early exit polls on the main page.
LaFollette http://www.library.wisc.edu/etext/WIReader/WER1160.html#Year1905
You are going to hear a lot from Howard Dean during the next week on the word LaFollette.
Some background is in order.
Robert LaFollette practically defined Wisconsin politics in the early 20th century. He was a Republican, but a progressive one. He was beaten twice by Corporate Republicans, but finally became Governor in 1900. The Grolier Encyclopedia has a modest half-paragraph on his accomplishments in that office:
Wisconsin was the first state to adopt the primary for nominations for state offices. A new law taxed railroads on the value of their property, ending an inequity. Taxes on corporations permitted the state to pay its debts. A railroad commission was created to regulate rates. Funding for education was increased. A civil-service law was adopted. This legislation was drafted by political and social scientists and economists, a feature of the "Wisconsin Idea."
As a U.S. Senator, where he served for 20 years, LaFollette was one of only two votes against American entry into World War I. He won 17% of the vote as the Progressive Candidate for U.S. President in 1924, a record beaten only twice, by Theodore Roosevelt and Ross Perot. After his death in 1925, his son Robert Jr. succeeded him in the Senate, until defeated in 1946 by a then little-known war veteran named Joe McCarthy.
LaFollettism, if one can coin a term, is dedicated to honest elections, to frugality, to the public?s interest against predatory business (and firm support for the other kind), as well as to skepticism regarding blatant, self-gratifying flag-waving.
Give or take some issues, one party, and many decades, it is a description that fits Howard Dean well. It?s what we?ll be fighting for this week.
The Path The Media Is Taking To Stop Howard Dean: John Kerry? http://media.guardian.co.uk/city/story/0,7497,1144464,00.html
If there was ever more reason to keep fighting for Howard Dean, it's spelled out in this article by the MediaGuardian.co.uk Read it. Read what some of us have been suspecting with a knot in our stomach ever since Howard Dean announced again that he would work to re-regulate the media on Hardball. That announcement, however, was the first time he did it in the belly of the beast: NBC parent General Electric (GE):
Says the article,
US political commentators have speculated that Mr Kerry has enjoyed the support of the media community in an effort to head off the challenge of Howard Dean, who has fallen back in the race despite being the frontrunner before the primaries began. Mr Dean made statements last year about wanting to break up media conglomerates.
It's no big surprise, I guess. Were the media interests looking for a chance to pounce on Dean after Gore's endorsement? Perhaps. We don't have to look too far to see what they did when they got their video soundbite after Iowa voted. I still think the organization we had built in New Hampshire was strong enough to blunt the electability issue after a third place finish in Iowa-- given all the other blunders out there. Not after the constant looping of what they called "The Scream," however.
PS: Looks like the article points out that FOX's key guys are giving the biggest contributions to Kerry.
Dean's been turning up the volume on the media's role in choosing who gets elected. I don't know that this will help our cause in Wisconsin, but maybe the people will hear us on the 17th if we keep pointing the truth out.
I guess we just have to work harder.
Thanks to pavingmoratorium for the heads up on this article.
Crossposted at DeanTV.org.
Says the article,
US political commentators have speculated that Mr Kerry has enjoyed the support of the media community in an effort to head off the challenge of Howard Dean, who has fallen back in the race despite being the frontrunner before the primaries began. Mr Dean made statements last year about wanting to break up media conglomerates.
It's no big surprise, I guess. Were the media interests looking for a chance to pounce on Dean after Gore's endorsement? Perhaps. We don't have to look too far to see what they did when they got their video soundbite after Iowa voted. I still think the organization we had built in New Hampshire was strong enough to blunt the electability issue after a third place finish in Iowa-- given all the other blunders out there. Not after the constant looping of what they called "The Scream," however.
PS: Looks like the article points out that FOX's key guys are giving the biggest contributions to Kerry.
Dean's been turning up the volume on the media's role in choosing who gets elected. I don't know that this will help our cause in Wisconsin, but maybe the people will hear us on the 17th if we keep pointing the truth out.
I guess we just have to work harder.
Thanks to pavingmoratorium for the heads up on this article.
Crossposted at DeanTV.org.
The Insurgent
We were always going to be the insurgent.
The most remarkable political story of 2003, by far, was that the Insurgent Candidate in this year's race appeared on the scene before the Established Candidate.
Iowa and New Hampshire, then, were to be about who the "Establishment Candidate" might be.
We know the answer now. We will know if for certain if, tonight, Kerry puts away Edwards and Clark.
So why are we downhearted? This is where we wanted to be, where we expected to be, the insurgents trying to take the party back from the corporate-backed (Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley, Time Warner) establishment.
Before we can take our country back, we must first take the party back from the corporate interests who have held it in thrall, just as Bryan's Populists took the Democratic Party back from Wall Street interests 100 years ago.
So why are you downhearted? You have a cause, you have a fight, and you have a candidate. The fact that candidate wants to win, and does not want to divide the party if he can't win, should motivate you, not disappoint you.
So fight.
The most remarkable political story of 2003, by far, was that the Insurgent Candidate in this year's race appeared on the scene before the Established Candidate.
Iowa and New Hampshire, then, were to be about who the "Establishment Candidate" might be.
We know the answer now. We will know if for certain if, tonight, Kerry puts away Edwards and Clark.
So why are we downhearted? This is where we wanted to be, where we expected to be, the insurgents trying to take the party back from the corporate-backed (Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley, Time Warner) establishment.
Before we can take our country back, we must first take the party back from the corporate interests who have held it in thrall, just as Bryan's Populists took the Democratic Party back from Wall Street interests 100 years ago.
So why are you downhearted? You have a cause, you have a fight, and you have a candidate. The fact that candidate wants to win, and does not want to divide the party if he can't win, should motivate you, not disappoint you.
So fight.
Wisconsin Still Fighting http://www.livejournal.com/users/dustpanmandan/14002.html?
Kerry may be up in the polls, but that doesn't mean Dean supporters in Wisconsin have thrown in the towel. I've mentioned before how the Dean rally in Madison was packed. I'll also add that college-age people took up less than half the crowd, which surprised even me considering he was basically on a college campus. Here, now is another statement of support for Dean from a newly registered voter in another city:
"So, by October 2002, I thought I had found a candidate. A major proponent of universal health coverage and someone opposed to the Second Gulf War. But that's not all that Governor Dean had to offer.
"As I looked into his record, I found more good stuff about him. He used his experience as a doctor to provide health care to 92% of Vermont's adults and 96% of its children. This is in a state that is not even in the top-half of the nation in income - if Dean can cover its citizens with health care, then surely he can do it as President of the richest nation in the world.
"Dr. Dean also balanced the budget as Vermont's governor, even though Vermont's constitution doesn't require it. This may not seem that important, but look at Wisconsin. Thanks to 16 years of mismanagement by Tommy Thompson and Co., Wisconsin now has a $4 billion deficit and is being forced to cut back on aid to local governments, reduce the money going to schools, and increase tuition to UW Universities. Vermont is not in that fix - they have a budget surplus and can fund social services, health care, and education without breaking the bank.
"Another stand of Dean's I admire is the Civil Unions bill he signed in Vermont. On November 7th, 2000, Vermont became the first state in the union to recognize that gay couples deserve the same legal rights as everyone else. Before this, gay partners could not be covered under each others' health insurance or make hospital visits. Thanks to Governor Dean, homosexuals in Vermont enjoy the same rights as everyone else and are not subject to discrimination from the state.
This stand took a lot of guts. Dean was forced to wear a bullet-proof vest on the campaign trail for Governor, as he received enough death threats that the State police became very concerned. He was the target of a very vicious campaign from the right-wing, but in the end, his stand won out. Vermont's voters elected him for the fifth time in a row."
By the way, the trolls here are getting downright funny. I wish I had a picture so you could all see how un-hippyish I look. Guess what? In 2002 I voted Republican for at least one of the statewide offices! And I'm for Dean! So tell me who's in the bubble again?
"So, by October 2002, I thought I had found a candidate. A major proponent of universal health coverage and someone opposed to the Second Gulf War. But that's not all that Governor Dean had to offer.
"As I looked into his record, I found more good stuff about him. He used his experience as a doctor to provide health care to 92% of Vermont's adults and 96% of its children. This is in a state that is not even in the top-half of the nation in income - if Dean can cover its citizens with health care, then surely he can do it as President of the richest nation in the world.
"Dr. Dean also balanced the budget as Vermont's governor, even though Vermont's constitution doesn't require it. This may not seem that important, but look at Wisconsin. Thanks to 16 years of mismanagement by Tommy Thompson and Co., Wisconsin now has a $4 billion deficit and is being forced to cut back on aid to local governments, reduce the money going to schools, and increase tuition to UW Universities. Vermont is not in that fix - they have a budget surplus and can fund social services, health care, and education without breaking the bank.
"Another stand of Dean's I admire is the Civil Unions bill he signed in Vermont. On November 7th, 2000, Vermont became the first state in the union to recognize that gay couples deserve the same legal rights as everyone else. Before this, gay partners could not be covered under each others' health insurance or make hospital visits. Thanks to Governor Dean, homosexuals in Vermont enjoy the same rights as everyone else and are not subject to discrimination from the state.
This stand took a lot of guts. Dean was forced to wear a bullet-proof vest on the campaign trail for Governor, as he received enough death threats that the State police became very concerned. He was the target of a very vicious campaign from the right-wing, but in the end, his stand won out. Vermont's voters elected him for the fifth time in a row."
By the way, the trolls here are getting downright funny. I wish I had a picture so you could all see how un-hippyish I look. Guess what? In 2002 I voted Republican for at least one of the statewide offices! And I'm for Dean! So tell me who's in the bubble again?
Daily Review
Dean Urges Wisconsin to Help Him Win
CNN Says It Overplayed Dean's Iowa Scream
Student becomes famous for Dean site
TV coverage of election shortchanges the public
Its Too Soon to be That Pragmatic
Party Crasher
CNN Says It Overplayed Dean's Iowa Scream
Student becomes famous for Dean site
TV coverage of election shortchanges the public
Its Too Soon to be That Pragmatic
Party Crasher
Monday, February 09, 2004
In it for the long haul http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/09/politics/campaign/09CND-DEAN.html?hp
New TV ads are on the air in Wisconsin, and today Gov Dean stated he would find a way to stay in the race for the long haul. Roy Neel says a win in Wisconsin is a must, but I know that there are still many Dean supporters in California, Texas, New Jersey, New York, and Florida (among others) who still intend to vote Dean in their primaries and caucuses. These mixed messages from the campaign aren't helping much, IMO, but I also believe that Howard Dean should stay in the race for as long as possible. In fact, I want everyone in the race as long as possible. A prolonged primary gives the Democrats more airtime, and so far they've all successfully used that platform as a way to crack through Bush's facade of "popular wartime president".
Gov Dean has - from the beginning - been one of the strongest critics of the Bush administration. Many in the party - including those who aren't directly supporting Dean in the primaries - have acknowledged that Howard Dean gave the Democratic Party back it's voice. What he did was give them a backbone transplant. But I believe many Dean supporters demand accountability from their party. We want to vote for the nominee, but we also want that nominee to follow through on their promises. I think we all know that Gov Dean will do his best to follow through on the promises he's made - returning fiscal sanity, restoring America to it's moral high ground in international affairs, preserving our environment and providing health care - but what about the other guys?
Dean should stay in the race for as long as he can; I've always believed that. But take this as my initial reaction to this news. What are your thoughts?
Gov Dean has - from the beginning - been one of the strongest critics of the Bush administration. Many in the party - including those who aren't directly supporting Dean in the primaries - have acknowledged that Howard Dean gave the Democratic Party back it's voice. What he did was give them a backbone transplant. But I believe many Dean supporters demand accountability from their party. We want to vote for the nominee, but we also want that nominee to follow through on their promises. I think we all know that Gov Dean will do his best to follow through on the promises he's made - returning fiscal sanity, restoring America to it's moral high ground in international affairs, preserving our environment and providing health care - but what about the other guys?
Dean should stay in the race for as long as he can; I've always believed that. But take this as my initial reaction to this news. What are your thoughts?
Dean/Clark 04: a civil union
I do NOT neccessarily want Dean to quit the race if he loses Wisconsin. The reason is because Clark and Edwards are directly competing against each other to be the Southern anti-Kerry, but neither is immune to the steamroll effect of the voter ABB desperation than Dean has been thus far. Look at the upcoming races in TN and VA - polls show Kerry is leading in both states, and the Edwards and Clark camps are in direct competition to fight for 2nd place. Dean could have been a contender in VA, but has essentially abandoned his support there. And Dean could have tried to use Gore in TN to try and establish a delegate beachhead. But now it's just Edwards and Clark who are in the running against Kerry there, and Dean has zero momentum going into WI.
Both Edwards and Clark have a win, though Clark is weaker overall since his win in OK was a tight one and he trails Edwards in delegate count. Still, neither of them are anywhere close to Dean in delegates:
TN has 69 delegates tied to the primary, Virginia has 82. It's virtually certain that the lion's share in each case will go to Kerry. So if Edwards and Clark split the two states, it's still unlikely that they can get to seond place in delegate count. And both are running out of resources, not to mention facing seriousquestions about viability in the non-South.
What Dean has to do is look at the outcome of Feb 10th and see which candidate is weaker (probably Clark, who has already considered dropping out anyway). Then offer a VP slot to that candidate and start running as a joint ticket.
Dean/Clark or Dean/Edwards would be a true alternative to Kerry. It would give an immediate momentum boost going into Wisconsin, where the new joint ticket would have a full week to campaign. It would let the VP go negative on Kerry without fear of the Gephardt-Dean-Iowa effect. It would be a huge media story and would deftly solve the electability concerns. Plus it is simple math - you get two for one instead of Kerry/X (insert Special Favors here).
UPDATE: Slate has an analysis that makes much the same observations, but stops just short:
Suellentrop doesn't extend the argument to its logical conclusion. Suppose Clark does fold, but instead joins up with Dean. It's interesting that the idea of a running mate as a political lifeblood injection doesn't seem to occur to any of the big-name media analysts...
UPDATE2: looks like the Clark people are having similar thoughts, though of course they want their guy at the top of the ticket. It's bizarre to see Clarkies writing off Dean and expressing "sadness" at our supposed loss, but Dean has double the delegates, isn't competing with Edwards for voters, and remains flush with cash (and no spending limits). Reality check, Clark dudes - we can win jointly or lose apart. But Clark/Dean isn't one of the choices.
Both Edwards and Clark have a win, though Clark is weaker overall since his win in OK was a tight one and he trails Edwards in delegate count. Still, neither of them are anywhere close to Dean in delegates:
Kerry - 409
Dean - 174
Edwards - 116
Clark - 82
TN has 69 delegates tied to the primary, Virginia has 82. It's virtually certain that the lion's share in each case will go to Kerry. So if Edwards and Clark split the two states, it's still unlikely that they can get to seond place in delegate count. And both are running out of resources, not to mention facing seriousquestions about viability in the non-South.
What Dean has to do is look at the outcome of Feb 10th and see which candidate is weaker (probably Clark, who has already considered dropping out anyway). Then offer a VP slot to that candidate and start running as a joint ticket.
Dean/Clark or Dean/Edwards would be a true alternative to Kerry. It would give an immediate momentum boost going into Wisconsin, where the new joint ticket would have a full week to campaign. It would let the VP go negative on Kerry without fear of the Gephardt-Dean-Iowa effect. It would be a huge media story and would deftly solve the electability concerns. Plus it is simple math - you get two for one instead of Kerry/X (insert Special Favors here).
UPDATE: Slate has an analysis that makes much the same observations, but stops just short:
Right now, Edwards looks like the candidate most likely to survive and become Kerry's sacrificial lamb on March 2. Edwards hopes that Clark loses Tennessee on Tuesday and then bows out of the race, and that Dean quits after a loss in Wisconsin a week later. That would leave Edwards with two weeks before March 2—and the intervening Hawaii, Idaho, and Utah contests—to convince voters that he has a better chance of beating President Bush in November than Kerry does.
Suellentrop doesn't extend the argument to its logical conclusion. Suppose Clark does fold, but instead joins up with Dean. It's interesting that the idea of a running mate as a political lifeblood injection doesn't seem to occur to any of the big-name media analysts...
UPDATE2: looks like the Clark people are having similar thoughts, though of course they want their guy at the top of the ticket. It's bizarre to see Clarkies writing off Dean and expressing "sadness" at our supposed loss, but Dean has double the delegates, isn't competing with Edwards for voters, and remains flush with cash (and no spending limits). Reality check, Clark dudes - we can win jointly or lose apart. But Clark/Dean isn't one of the choices.
Still Within The Plan
I just want to remind everyone here who thinks we've given up that this weekend's results are still well within the Neel plan, as originally outlined right after New Hampshire.
The plan was to ignore February 3 and shoot for a few delegates (check), to do well in the next three races to become a viable alternative to Kerry (check -- we finished second and picked up delegates without advertising) then to lay in wait in Wisconsin and turn the race on its head.
That turn could easily accelerate tomorrow, if Clark and Edwards do well in Tennessee and Virginia.
If Neel's plan fails, we're out on February 18. Win Wisconsin, however, and it's game-on for Super Tuesday -- New York, California, plenty of delegates to push Kerry in second to stay.
But I do get the impression, reading the notes here, the lack of new threads, and the press, that a lot of people have given-up.
Don't. Kerry is starting to be taken down by the media just as we were. He is far from 50% on delegates chosen so far.
The game is still afoot.
The plan was to ignore February 3 and shoot for a few delegates (check), to do well in the next three races to become a viable alternative to Kerry (check -- we finished second and picked up delegates without advertising) then to lay in wait in Wisconsin and turn the race on its head.
That turn could easily accelerate tomorrow, if Clark and Edwards do well in Tennessee and Virginia.
If Neel's plan fails, we're out on February 18. Win Wisconsin, however, and it's game-on for Super Tuesday -- New York, California, plenty of delegates to push Kerry in second to stay.
But I do get the impression, reading the notes here, the lack of new threads, and the press, that a lot of people have given-up.
Don't. Kerry is starting to be taken down by the media just as we were. He is far from 50% on delegates chosen so far.
The game is still afoot.
Two questions for Bush
Mr President:
If Dean repeated these two questions for Bush on EVERY SINGLE media appearance between now and Feb 17th, he will win the nomination and the Presidency.
Can you give us the names of three National Guard Service colleagues who served with you between May 1972 and October 1973?
If (you believed on the basis of intelligence) Saddam Hussein had an advanced nuclear weapons program, why didn't we invade Iraq before Afghanistan? In fact, why would we have to wait until 9/11?
If Dean repeated these two questions for Bush on EVERY SINGLE media appearance between now and Feb 17th, he will win the nomination and the Presidency.
AFSCME drops endorsement http://wcco.com/topstories/topstories_story_039090700.html
The 1.5 million members of AFSCME are withdrawing their support. The echo chamber still hasn't mentioned it.
UPDATE: Dean has released a statement. First comment on that thread is "go Dean!".
UPDATE: Dean has released a statement. First comment on that thread is "go Dean!".
where was Dean this weekend? http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2004/2/8/182150/2710/13#13
At dKos, Maura in VA writes bitterly about Dean's decision to skip the Virginia JJ dinner:
There are other reports that Dean's Face the Nation apearance was lackluster, and he did not use the opportunity to critique the President's Meet the Press sunday appearance (Bush did so badly that even the conservative stalwarts at NRO's The Corner were comparing his answers to Sharpton on the Federal Reserve).
It is good that Dean is focsing his energies on Wisconsin - but the campaign is no longer aqcting with confidence. Dean is acting like a desperate candidate, not a confident one, and paying the price as voters look for a strong challenger to Bush. Dean's ads should be talking about his acccomplishments, buttressed by quotes from media sources and references, and previewing his attack strategy against Bush. Instead he's reduced to having on-screen surrogates convince voters it's still 2003. I mean, this clip of the 2004 SOTU is more effective than any of the "switch"-inspired ads[1]
Dean's canceling of campaign events in Michigan probably cost him delegates. And given how Clark's monopoly of NH didn't garner him any advantage while the others were distracted by Iowa, it's doubtful that Dean's numbers in WI would have sufferred had he maintained a broader scope. In fact, a stronger finish in Michigan might have boosted media attention - after all, he placed second in WA with 30% of the vote! But it hasn't given him any momentum. Better numbers across the board this weekend might have given some real boost that he could ride better into Wisconsin. As things stand, the Anybody But Kerry crowd is considering voting Edwards or Clark as more viable alternatives.
Dean's money should be focused on Wisconsin. But the candidate needs to be in EVERY state ahead of the WI primary. Yes, the Madison Meetup was a smash, but it was far too early in advance of the actual WI primary to have any real effect. Had Dean gone to Meetup in Ann Arbor as I had been insisting, the numbers out of WA and MI - and the media coverage - might have been different.
[1]Whose idea was it to emulate the ads of a computer company that has only 5% market share as a way to build, er, market share? Dean endorser Al Gore does sit on Apple's board of directors... hmm..
Dean did not back out of the Virginia JJ last night to attend his son's last hockey game. His son's last hockey game is next Saturday night, which is why he will be missing the Wisconsin Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner, and Wisconsin is his "must win" state!!!!! He made this commitment to his son months ago and he's never said he was going to the Wisconsin JJ.
But he did commit to going to the Virginia JJ, and according to Garrett Graff, Dean spokesman, in the New York Times, he went home to Vermont last night. To rest, presumably.
The JJ dinner last night was so bittersweet. Though sometimes it feels like no one could be more disappointed than me for what has happened to Dean in Virginia, my heart breaks for Don Beyer. He has given his life to Dean in this past year. He has had huge successses in Virginia, most notably by gaining the support of some of Virginia's most important Democrats, like the mayors of Alexandria and Richmond, Rep. Bobby Scott, and Rep. Jim Moran.
It was sickening to be surrounded by all of the big money "Kerry Come Latelies" of Virginia politics. The brave Virginia leaders who took a couragous stance and came out to support Dean early, rather than waiting to see who would be coronated, were left out to dry by Dean going home to Vermont last night.
There are other reports that Dean's Face the Nation apearance was lackluster, and he did not use the opportunity to critique the President's Meet the Press sunday appearance (Bush did so badly that even the conservative stalwarts at NRO's The Corner were comparing his answers to Sharpton on the Federal Reserve).
It is good that Dean is focsing his energies on Wisconsin - but the campaign is no longer aqcting with confidence. Dean is acting like a desperate candidate, not a confident one, and paying the price as voters look for a strong challenger to Bush. Dean's ads should be talking about his acccomplishments, buttressed by quotes from media sources and references, and previewing his attack strategy against Bush. Instead he's reduced to having on-screen surrogates convince voters it's still 2003. I mean, this clip of the 2004 SOTU is more effective than any of the "switch"-inspired ads[1]
Dean's canceling of campaign events in Michigan probably cost him delegates. And given how Clark's monopoly of NH didn't garner him any advantage while the others were distracted by Iowa, it's doubtful that Dean's numbers in WI would have sufferred had he maintained a broader scope. In fact, a stronger finish in Michigan might have boosted media attention - after all, he placed second in WA with 30% of the vote! But it hasn't given him any momentum. Better numbers across the board this weekend might have given some real boost that he could ride better into Wisconsin. As things stand, the Anybody But Kerry crowd is considering voting Edwards or Clark as more viable alternatives.
Dean's money should be focused on Wisconsin. But the candidate needs to be in EVERY state ahead of the WI primary. Yes, the Madison Meetup was a smash, but it was far too early in advance of the actual WI primary to have any real effect. Had Dean gone to Meetup in Ann Arbor as I had been insisting, the numbers out of WA and MI - and the media coverage - might have been different.
[1]Whose idea was it to emulate the ads of a computer company that has only 5% market share as a way to build, er, market share? Dean endorser Al Gore does sit on Apple's board of directors... hmm..
Saturday, February 07, 2004
winning WA! recount NH? http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/states/WA/index.html
interesting analysis that shows Dean lost by a much smaller margin to Kerry on hand-counted ballots, whereas Diebold machine-counted votes favored Kerry by an enormous margin. Calling for a recount seems potentially risky though.
In other news, several reports have suggested that Dean may be beating Kerry in WA state thus far - but the official counts still show Kerry in the lead (54% to 28%, with only 21% of precincts reporting). We are definitely getting delegates out of this one, though!
UPDATE: with 32% of the precincts reporting, Dean gains to 29% and Kerry slips to 50% ...
UPDATE 2: with 34% reporting, Dean slips back to 28%, Kerry falls still further to 44%, and Kucinich rises to 14%. It's clear that Kucinich's rise is at the expense of Kerry, not Dean. If Kucinich "spoils" it for Kerry, while Dean stays constant, there's a great chance Dean can eke out a win.
UPDATE 3: with 49% reporting, Kerry is back up to 48%, but Dean has also gained to 31%, and Kucinich recedes to 8%. This is a real heady race - it's clear that the numbers are volatile. Still, now that half the precincts are done reporting, it's harder for any single precinct to dramatically affect the numbers. The volatility should decrease unless there's a big pocket of Kucinich supporters out there ready to bolt Dean-wards.
In other news, several reports have suggested that Dean may be beating Kerry in WA state thus far - but the official counts still show Kerry in the lead (54% to 28%, with only 21% of precincts reporting). We are definitely getting delegates out of this one, though!
UPDATE: with 32% of the precincts reporting, Dean gains to 29% and Kerry slips to 50% ...
UPDATE 2: with 34% reporting, Dean slips back to 28%, Kerry falls still further to 44%, and Kucinich rises to 14%. It's clear that Kucinich's rise is at the expense of Kerry, not Dean. If Kucinich "spoils" it for Kerry, while Dean stays constant, there's a great chance Dean can eke out a win.
UPDATE 3: with 49% reporting, Kerry is back up to 48%, but Dean has also gained to 31%, and Kucinich recedes to 8%. This is a real heady race - it's clear that the numbers are volatile. Still, now that half the precincts are done reporting, it's harder for any single precinct to dramatically affect the numbers. The volatility should decrease unless there's a big pocket of Kucinich supporters out there ready to bolt Dean-wards.
Michigan caucus sites moved; other sites run out of ballots http://www.mlive.com/newsflash/michigan/index.ssf?/base/news-11/1076181242303271.xml
untraceable dirty tricks in Michigan. Affecting Dean and Edwards voters primarily.
UPDATE from O-Blog - caucuses will stay open for two extra hours to try and compensate. whew!
UPDATE from O-Blog - caucuses will stay open for two extra hours to try and compensate. whew!
pigeonholing Dean with VP http://nytimes.com/2004/02/06/politics/campaign/06CND-DEAN.html
I have to disagree with Nico here - This New York Times is long on speculation and short on details. The headline, that Dean "hints" at accepting a VP slot, seems entirely manufactured from this comment by Dean:
This is a tenous link between Dean's statement and inference of a VP. If Dean publicly and explicitly says he will consider a VP slot, then that's fine, but until then it's not worth taking seriously. Just another example of the media trying to squeeze more narratives from the Drama of Dean's Fall, which they in large part manufactured to begin with.
Acknowledging that his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination is "a longer shot than it was," Howard Dean suggested today that he would accept the No. 2 spot on a national ticket if it were offered.
"I would, to the extent, do anything I could to get rid of President Bush," Dr. Dean said on a morning radio program in Milwaukee. `I'll do whatever is best for the party. Obviously, I'm running for president, but whatever's best is what I'll do. Anything. We've just got to change presidents. We're really hurting right now.
This is a tenous link between Dean's statement and inference of a VP. If Dean publicly and explicitly says he will consider a VP slot, then that's fine, but until then it's not worth taking seriously. Just another example of the media trying to squeeze more narratives from the Drama of Dean's Fall, which they in large part manufactured to begin with.
reports from WA caucuses http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/2/7/183246/1586
link goes to Jerome Armstrong's report over at Daily Kos. Also, Dean Nation regular phil left this report in comments:
"NEWS FROM THE GROUND IN WA: At the risk of writing a caucus report while absolutely psyched, here's the report from a Seattle district (the 46th)...
First, turnout was absolutely amazing. We had to overflow from the huge cafeteria into the gym. Our specific precinct who had 5 people show up for the 2000 election caucus had 46 people show up today! 46!
Initial tally went 2 Dean and 2 Kerry delegates -- no others. After stumping where several of us voiced up respectfully but clearly, we brought over 5 more votes and picked up another delegate. Final Delegate Tally for 46-2292 was 3 Dean, 2 Kerry, and 1 Kucinich (who also picked one up from stumping). It was just like they said at the training: being vocal, clear, and respectful can tip things in a situation like that. Micro-politics are absolutely fascinating.
Overall, the coordinator seemed to think that our 46th district seemed to be breaking 50-50 for Dean and Kerry. As we worked the room in advance, people were largely receptive to hear about Dean. Many showed up with concerns and questions.
Of course, we're all waiting to hear about WA overall. This is liberal Seattle. But the turnout makes me really hopeful about November. People are turning out -- and this was for a caucus!
Thanks go out to all of the DN bloggers and participants who have been a reliable source of daily info for me. I am in your debt.
Onward for Dean!"
thanks, phil! keep your reports coming in the comments section...
UPDATE: this thread at Kos is full of reports from delegates around various precincts in WA. It's clear that Dean is doing far better than media expectations!
"NEWS FROM THE GROUND IN WA: At the risk of writing a caucus report while absolutely psyched, here's the report from a Seattle district (the 46th)...
First, turnout was absolutely amazing. We had to overflow from the huge cafeteria into the gym. Our specific precinct who had 5 people show up for the 2000 election caucus had 46 people show up today! 46!
Initial tally went 2 Dean and 2 Kerry delegates -- no others. After stumping where several of us voiced up respectfully but clearly, we brought over 5 more votes and picked up another delegate. Final Delegate Tally for 46-2292 was 3 Dean, 2 Kerry, and 1 Kucinich (who also picked one up from stumping). It was just like they said at the training: being vocal, clear, and respectful can tip things in a situation like that. Micro-politics are absolutely fascinating.
Overall, the coordinator seemed to think that our 46th district seemed to be breaking 50-50 for Dean and Kerry. As we worked the room in advance, people were largely receptive to hear about Dean. Many showed up with concerns and questions.
Of course, we're all waiting to hear about WA overall. This is liberal Seattle. But the turnout makes me really hopeful about November. People are turning out -- and this was for a caucus!
Thanks go out to all of the DN bloggers and participants who have been a reliable source of daily info for me. I am in your debt.
Onward for Dean!"
thanks, phil! keep your reports coming in the comments section...
UPDATE: this thread at Kos is full of reports from delegates around various precincts in WA. It's clear that Dean is doing far better than media expectations!
Feed the Win Wisconsin bat! http://www.deanforamerica.com/deannation
The O-blog noticed that we have almost raised $40,000 - and our goal is to break the $45,000 ceiling for Dean by Feb 17th and the Wisconsin primary! We are so close - at $39,000! Remember, Dean's drawn a line in the cheese in the Badger State and this single contest determines the fate of the campaign!
What are you waiting for?! ON, WISCONSIN!
What are you waiting for?! ON, WISCONSIN!
Friday, February 06, 2004
Kucinich to reprise kingmaker role in WI? http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/02/06/mgrind.day.fri/index.html
almost as an afterthought to this CNN article comes this nugget:
intriguing... any suggestions on how we might recruit the Kucinich vote in Wisconsin?
One trend that could work in Dean's favor in Wisconsin: A flurry of e-mails and newspaper editorials this week among Dennis Kucinich's supporters, who are urging others to rally behind Dean as the party's more viable leftist.
Sure, Kucinich draws only 2 percent of the vote in the latest Badger poll. But anyone who doubts Kucinich's power to sway an election need only look at Edwards and his second-place finish in Iowa. Stay tuned.
intriguing... any suggestions on how we might recruit the Kucinich vote in Wisconsin?
Pumpkinhead vs. the Smirking Chimp http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/movable_type/2004_archives/000220.html
Hello, Dean Nation bloggers! I've been a stranger since I moved beyond my Dean Nation roots and headed up to Burlington to work on economic policy for Governor Dean. We've had a wild ride so far, and on the strength of our astounding fundraising of the last two days, our spirits as high as we head into the contests this weekend and then look to Wisconsin. Hit the bat and help take us there! Now is the time more than ever that Howard Dean needs your help.
As you may have heard, Bush is going on Meet the Press this weekend. One of my old professors, Brad Delong, is leading a blogosphere brainstorm on suggested questions for Tim Russert to pose to the man. Here are my first 10. Please contribute your own ideas.
1) Mr. President, your FY 2005 Budget document includes full-color photos of you that are indistinguishable from Bush-Cheney, Inc. campaign photos. What would be a fair price for you to pay the American people for turning the federal budget document of the United States into a campaign brochure?
2) Mr. President, you owe your presence in the White House to the fact that in 2000 your brother Jeb and your Florida campaign chair Katherine Harris illegally removed from the registration rolls 57,700 voters, the vast majority of whom were African-Americans. Can you name any greater election crime in the history of our country?
3) Mr. President, I have been told by a reliable source that Dick Cheney vets all economic briefings you receive. Cheney once told Paul O’Neill, “Reagan proved deficits don’t matter.” However, your own chief economic advisor, Harvard professor Greg Mankiw, wrote in his Principles of Economics textbook that “government budget deficits reduce the economy's growth rate.” According to conventional estimates, using assumptions adopted by your own Council Economic Advisers, the debt you have created will raise interest rates and reduce annual national income by $3000 per family by 2012. When will you demand that Cheney resign?
4) Mr. President, your budget does not include any money to support our troops in Iraq and Afghanistan in FY 2005. Why won’t you support our troops with funds after FY 2005?
[Follow-up] The CBO has projected continuing costs for the war on terror at $30 billion per year over the next five years. This funding is not in your budget. Why do you want to cut off all funding for the war on terror at the end of FY 2004?
[Follow-up] If you intend to ask for more money later, why are you not putting that in your budget request now?
5) Mr. President, you promised, "I came to this office to solve problems and not pass them on to future presidents and future generations." How big is the national debt and how much has it grown since you took office?
[Follow-up] As a direct consequence of your tax policy, over six years an American family of four will take on $52,000 more in its share of the national debt. When did you change your mind and decide to pass on problems to future generations? Would Jesus mortgage the future of our children like this?
6) Mr. President, are you ashamed to be the first President since the Great Depression to have net job loss during your presidency?
7) Mr. President, unlike Presidents in previous economic downturns, you have failed to provide adequate fiscal relief to the states. You have also placed new financial burdens on the states, chiefly through unfunded mandates like No Child Left Behind. According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, “A conservative estimate suggests that federal policies are costing states and localities about $185 billion over the four-year course of the state fiscal crisis.” As a consequence, states and communities have been forced to raise taxes and cut services. This has been called the “Bush Tax.” Half a million children have been cutoff from access to health care. Wouldn’t you say that these children HAVE been left behind? Is cutting children off health care just stupid, heartless, right-wing policy, or is it an affront to God?
8) Is the resemblance between Dick Cheney and Dr. Evil mere coincidence?
9) On March 30, 11 days into the war, Donald Rumsfeld said in an ABC News interview when asked about weapons of mass destruction: "We know where they are. They're in the area around Tikrit and Baghdad and east, west, south and north somewhat." Exactly when did you learn he was lying?
10) Last August, while our soldiers were being killed nearly every day in Iraq, you tried to cut their pay. Why do you hate America so much?
As you may have heard, Bush is going on Meet the Press this weekend. One of my old professors, Brad Delong, is leading a blogosphere brainstorm on suggested questions for Tim Russert to pose to the man. Here are my first 10. Please contribute your own ideas.
1) Mr. President, your FY 2005 Budget document includes full-color photos of you that are indistinguishable from Bush-Cheney, Inc. campaign photos. What would be a fair price for you to pay the American people for turning the federal budget document of the United States into a campaign brochure?
2) Mr. President, you owe your presence in the White House to the fact that in 2000 your brother Jeb and your Florida campaign chair Katherine Harris illegally removed from the registration rolls 57,700 voters, the vast majority of whom were African-Americans. Can you name any greater election crime in the history of our country?
3) Mr. President, I have been told by a reliable source that Dick Cheney vets all economic briefings you receive. Cheney once told Paul O’Neill, “Reagan proved deficits don’t matter.” However, your own chief economic advisor, Harvard professor Greg Mankiw, wrote in his Principles of Economics textbook that “government budget deficits reduce the economy's growth rate.” According to conventional estimates, using assumptions adopted by your own Council Economic Advisers, the debt you have created will raise interest rates and reduce annual national income by $3000 per family by 2012. When will you demand that Cheney resign?
4) Mr. President, your budget does not include any money to support our troops in Iraq and Afghanistan in FY 2005. Why won’t you support our troops with funds after FY 2005?
[Follow-up] The CBO has projected continuing costs for the war on terror at $30 billion per year over the next five years. This funding is not in your budget. Why do you want to cut off all funding for the war on terror at the end of FY 2004?
[Follow-up] If you intend to ask for more money later, why are you not putting that in your budget request now?
5) Mr. President, you promised, "I came to this office to solve problems and not pass them on to future presidents and future generations." How big is the national debt and how much has it grown since you took office?
[Follow-up] As a direct consequence of your tax policy, over six years an American family of four will take on $52,000 more in its share of the national debt. When did you change your mind and decide to pass on problems to future generations? Would Jesus mortgage the future of our children like this?
6) Mr. President, are you ashamed to be the first President since the Great Depression to have net job loss during your presidency?
7) Mr. President, unlike Presidents in previous economic downturns, you have failed to provide adequate fiscal relief to the states. You have also placed new financial burdens on the states, chiefly through unfunded mandates like No Child Left Behind. According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, “A conservative estimate suggests that federal policies are costing states and localities about $185 billion over the four-year course of the state fiscal crisis.” As a consequence, states and communities have been forced to raise taxes and cut services. This has been called the “Bush Tax.” Half a million children have been cutoff from access to health care. Wouldn’t you say that these children HAVE been left behind? Is cutting children off health care just stupid, heartless, right-wing policy, or is it an affront to God?
8) Is the resemblance between Dick Cheney and Dr. Evil mere coincidence?
9) On March 30, 11 days into the war, Donald Rumsfeld said in an ABC News interview when asked about weapons of mass destruction: "We know where they are. They're in the area around Tikrit and Baghdad and east, west, south and north somewhat." Exactly when did you learn he was lying?
10) Last August, while our soldiers were being killed nearly every day in Iraq, you tried to cut their pay. Why do you hate America so much?
taking our country back was never meant to be easy http://interestingtimes.blogspot.com/2004_02_01_interestingtimes_archive.html#107601252734708036
Chris at Interesting Times has a great rejoinder to the defeatism of some of the more easily-discouraged ranks of Dean supporters:
I have to admit that I find any suggestion that Kerry to be worse than Bush, or no different from, to be as asinine as the arguments of Green voters who maintain todaqy that they did the right thing in voting for Nader. And look where that got us.
Did people really think that taking back the Democratic party would be an easy task? Did they think that, even if Dean got the nomination, that that would mean we got it back?
Taking back the party will be a hard slog that could take years. But it will take even longer if you cut and run at the first sign you aren't getting what you want. That's Naderism to its core.
Dean HAS made a difference in this party even if it doesn't show it at the highest levels. A lot of pundits are trying to say that Dean has given the Dems a backbone transplant so he isn't needed anymore and neither are we (except for our votes and our money).
Bulls***!
We are needed to make that transplant real. We are needed to KEEP the party chanting the Dean message UNTIL THEY MEAN IT.
Running away just because Dean didn't get the nomination and just because he got screwed by some members of the establishment (aside: not all Democratic leaders screwed Dean and Dean is not entirely blameless in the troubles he has had) isn't going to help one damn bit!
Taking back the party will be a process that will NEVER end. Even if we get it back it will only be temporary. This is a fight that WILL continue from now until the end of time.
I have to admit that I find any suggestion that Kerry to be worse than Bush, or no different from, to be as asinine as the arguments of Green voters who maintain todaqy that they did the right thing in voting for Nader. And look where that got us.
Thinking Back; Looking Ahead
(Manchester, NH 1-26-04)
It’s been nearly two years now since many of us started to formulate our opinions about Howard Dean and set our individual plans into action. Even the best soothsayers amongst us could not have predicted just how very successful we have been in turning that action into results.
My individual plan concentrated on the media. I felt that an insurgent candidate from a small state would either be ignored or tamed by the mainstream media. My thought in making a documentary about Dean was that I could also use the footage gathered to help promote his message. Of course, I’ve been doing just that at DeanTV.org and here at our information artery, Dean Nation, ever since. Ultimately, I thought if Dean could win the nomination, a documentary ala “Journey’s With George” would be helpful to the cause if it were released prior to the general election.
Sure, in the beginning there were hopes of an inside HQ documentary mirroring D.A. Pennebaker’s, The War Room, based on Clinton’s operation. Needless to say, Dean’s success came much quicker than anticipated and, fortunately for all of us, professionals from Hollywood started moving in with more experience, money and resources than I could ever offer. I can’t wait to see the many documentaries that I think are floating out there about Dean. Hopefully, one will be aired before Wisconsin to show this kind, self-actualizing soul who has been fighting so hard for us while being co-opted in so many ways.
As my strengths and abilities to bring something to our community table became more defined over time, part of my goal was (when Dean got the nomination) to turn the cameras more on the loyal opposition: Santorum, DeLay, Rove, Coulter, O’Reilly, Hannity…
I started this phase in Iowa. I’m not paparazzi, but having Hannity beating up on Trippi to get him on his show called for action. After all, they cozied up next to me at the bar I'd been sitting at first in Des Moines. I may have crossed a line since it was "after campaign hours," but when Hannity started to rant and rave and yell at me to turn the camera off, I did so knowing my goal had been achieved in this test. When he calmed down, Hannity seemed much more polite to our old friend Trippi. In fact, when I ran into Hannity in New Hampshire again, he was downright hospitable to me as he wondered if I might not use the footage. “Are you Trippi’s boy?” he asked. “Nope, I’m independent for Dean.” The next day, Primary day, I went to visit Hannity again when Dean did his radio show. He did a double take on me as I leveled my video camera on him (the only one in the room), and wouldn’t you know it? It was one of the more pleasant interviews I’ve ever seen Hannity give to an “ultra-liberal” like Dean. Mind you, the polls didn’t look good that day for Dean so perhaps Hannity was giving him a break. Never the less, the experiment went pretty well, I thought.
Now, to the point: Since I wasn’t going to be the inside War Room guy, the documentary in the past year evolved into more of a check, or study, on the role of the media in choosing our leaders. Some of you may have seen some of the clips of the interviews I’ve gathered with the journalists/pundits on the road (as well as with the people, and cooperative campaign staff). After the so-called Scream in Iowa, the 6 networks were handed the sound/picture bite they had been craving for so long to stop Dean. I’ll spare you the conspiracy theories since we all know what they are. I will say this, however; individually, the pundits don’t pick the pictures, or how many times they are going to be run on their shows, or looped on the network feed. Such decisions are made by the entertainment editors on the inside. God knows how their decisions are influenced from the food chain above them. I’m sure at FOX, for instance, Roger Ailes has a heavy hand in making such decisions--as he did in calling the election for Bush prematurely/combatively in 2000.
I asked the same question to the individuals in Iowa and New Hampshire: Would any of these other candidates be talking about the things they are talking about if it wasn’t for Howard Dean standing up in the first place? Carlson, Begala, Novak, Carville, Alter, Fineman, Matthews, Greenfield, Oliphant, Crowley, Schneider, Scarborough, Williams, Klein, Hannity, Cameron, Crawford etc. all told me, unequivocally, “No.” In New Hampshire, I actually heard the regret about what happened with the scream since it came at such a crucial time. Heads hung low. Craig Crawford actually got into the “hazing factor of Howard Dean.”
And so, as we now see articles, and extra exposes and time allotted to Howard Dean—the nostalgia, or guilt being slipped in between the lines (they’ll all back themselves up with the idea that Howard Dean brought it upon himself in Iowa, though), my small hope is that somehow our campaign leaders have a plan to capitalize on this sentiment leading up to Wisconsin on the 17th. I’m hoping our money and time will go to a strategy that goes beyond ads and aggressively tugs at the individuals in the media to sing a new storyline tune for Howard Dean leading into Wisconsin. I’m not a professional strategist but my two cents is that Dean could get one last fair assessment before the establishment completely buries the candidate that fostered enough guts in the other candidates to co-opt his message. Alas, it may be too late.
Personally, I hope some creative thinking is used between now and Wisconsin to pique the voters and the media moguls' interest again. I don’t pretend to know the answer to that when we’re trying to look “presidential.” I do know that Wellstone’s ads in his first election catapulted him over the establishment candidate in Minnesota. Wisconsin is made up of the same kind of people. But that’s just an example. Maybe you could jot down your ideas here too? Maybe we really are being heard now that we're back to the basics again.
I just know that I’ll keep giving to the bat in the hope that, this time, we have a plan that plays into the media’s hands as well as the voters of Wisconsin.
The cameras will be watching.
CROSSFIRE doubts us
Joe Rospars emails to inform us that Tucker Carlson issued the following challenge last night on CNN's Crossfire:
Write in! and leave a copy of the email you wrote in the comments.
Remember - the Dean Nation goal is $45,000 by Feb. 17th. Have you swung the bat? Let's give Tucker Carlson something to be "fascinated" by!
"The Dean campaign claims to have raised more than 100 grand today, $55,000 of that just in the hour between noon and 1:00, all of which raises the important question, who in his right mind would give money to Howard Dean at this point? Well, if you're one of those who did, we want to hear from you. Explain yourself to CROSSFIRE@CNN.com. I'm fascinated by that."
Write in! and leave a copy of the email you wrote in the comments.
Remember - the Dean Nation goal is $45,000 by Feb. 17th. Have you swung the bat? Let's give Tucker Carlson something to be "fascinated" by!
Wisconsin is the key http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/2/6/23050/40475
via Dean Nation alumnus Jerome at DailyKos, is this prophetic article from June 2003 arguing that Wisconsin will be the clincher for the nomination:
Of course, the article was written long before Lieberman or Gephardt's withdrawal. Still, the facts of an open primary, no party registration, and a strong independent tradition make the state very competitive for Dean, despite poor poll numbers from UW (which admits to being unable to gauge the impact).
Likewise, a win in Wisconsin will be transformative. Winning Wisconsin means that electability is not an issue anymore - especially given WI's swing state status. That should help stem the tide of soft support from Dean to Kerry and make Dean much more competitive for Super Tuesday - where the grassroots support can mobilize.
Wisconsin is the lone primary on this Tuesday and, more important, the last big test going into Super Tuesday. The state has a very unpredictable electorate. Sure, there are the Madison liberals, but independents could mess with this primary big time. There's no party registration in the state, meaning the primary will be as open as they come.
[...]
But it's not just the independents that make this contest interesting; the Wisconsin electorate has a little bit to offer every major candidate in the field. There will be no excuse to skip -- there's no one with a regional advantage, although one could argue the winner of Iowa should have at least a tiny leg up. But regional candidates haven't succeeded in Wisconsin in the past, so what's to say a Gephardt couldn't walk in with a big advantage?
This will be the state that will either sink the front-runner or solidify him; there's no two ways about it. And winning Wisconsin, since it is a swing state for the general election, will trigger the media into declaring the winner the most electable Dem.
Of course, the article was written long before Lieberman or Gephardt's withdrawal. Still, the facts of an open primary, no party registration, and a strong independent tradition make the state very competitive for Dean, despite poor poll numbers from UW (which admits to being unable to gauge the impact).
Likewise, a win in Wisconsin will be transformative. Winning Wisconsin means that electability is not an issue anymore - especially given WI's swing state status. That should help stem the tide of soft support from Dean to Kerry and make Dean much more competitive for Super Tuesday - where the grassroots support can mobilize.
Thursday, February 05, 2004
About Wisconsin
I've only been in this state for a few years, so don't take this as authoritative. But here are some things to keep in mind.
Wisconsin has a progressive tradition. This was Robert LaFolette's state, and today it is Russ Feingold's. People here have a soft spot for candidates out to challenge the system. However, it is not a far-left state. "Dane County Liberal" carries the same baggage in Wisconsin politics that "Massachusetts Liberal" does in national politics. Jim Doyle won the 2002 gubernatorial primary by beating back both Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk and a Milwaukee congressman named Tom Barrett. He did this by dominating upstate.
Here's something else: Fiscal conservatism has been a huge issue here lately. Dean needs to tout his credentials in that area. In fact, he needs to tout credentials and plans everywhere he goes. Otherwise, pragmatic voters who want to know what you're going to do and not just what you stand for will go to someone else.
Here's another thing:The big news the past few days has been the state legislature's attempt to override Governor Doyle's veto of a bill legalizing the right to carry concealed weapons. The override attempt failed by one vote when a Democratic representative changed his vote at the last minute to support a governor of the same party. There is a great deal of pro-gun sentiment here. Even the most liberal candidates talk up their hunting credentials to cater to those northwoodsy sentiments. The Libertarian Party got over 10% of the vote in the 2002 gubernatorial elections in part on the basis of that issue.
In other words, Wisconsin voters are fiscally conservative, liberal on social issues, and like their guns. So if they vote strictly on how best to represent their views in the national debate, Dean has a great chance of winning this state. And a key is to make sure they do that rather than fall for an aura of inevitability set up by Iowa and New Hampshire.
Wisconsin has a progressive tradition. This was Robert LaFolette's state, and today it is Russ Feingold's. People here have a soft spot for candidates out to challenge the system. However, it is not a far-left state. "Dane County Liberal" carries the same baggage in Wisconsin politics that "Massachusetts Liberal" does in national politics. Jim Doyle won the 2002 gubernatorial primary by beating back both Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk and a Milwaukee congressman named Tom Barrett. He did this by dominating upstate.
Here's something else: Fiscal conservatism has been a huge issue here lately. Dean needs to tout his credentials in that area. In fact, he needs to tout credentials and plans everywhere he goes. Otherwise, pragmatic voters who want to know what you're going to do and not just what you stand for will go to someone else.
Here's another thing:The big news the past few days has been the state legislature's attempt to override Governor Doyle's veto of a bill legalizing the right to carry concealed weapons. The override attempt failed by one vote when a Democratic representative changed his vote at the last minute to support a governor of the same party. There is a great deal of pro-gun sentiment here. Even the most liberal candidates talk up their hunting credentials to cater to those northwoodsy sentiments. The Libertarian Party got over 10% of the vote in the 2002 gubernatorial elections in part on the basis of that issue.
In other words, Wisconsin voters are fiscally conservative, liberal on social issues, and like their guns. So if they vote strictly on how best to represent their views in the national debate, Dean has a great chance of winning this state. And a key is to make sure they do that rather than fall for an aura of inevitability set up by Iowa and New Hampshire.
after Wisconsin
Dean has rightfully drawn a line in the sand for Wisconsin - but let's think for a moment beyond a victory there. Dean will have won a state, but still will face a hostile media, an establishment friendly to Kerry, and other candidates drawing blood.
It's time to start thinking about strategy again, instead of tactics. And one strategy that needs to be put on the table is to sweeten the deal for voters wondering why they should choose Dean. The answer is simple: Dean should choose a Veep running mate.
That running mate needs to be Southern, to compete against Edwards. And a military man, to compete against Kerry. The natural candidate would be Clark, but unless we win Wisconsin we can't make a decent argument to his camp as to why they should settle for #2. A Wisconsin win however will give Dean all the operational advantages - money, grassroots, and delegate count. Clark and Dean are competing for the same voters, just as Edwards and Kerry are (and I predict a Kerry/Edwards ticket on the horizon in practice if not in name soon enough). Dean needs to address the issue of basic survival with Clark, and point out that together they may yet stand whereas apart they fall.
Kerry/Edwards is going to be a compelling ticket. Certainly far better than Dean/X or Clark/X. But Dean/Clark is something else entirely - a civil union, whose whole is greater than the sum of their parts. The writing is on the wall for Clark and Dean regardless of wins in OK and WI - unless they find a way to make a bold move that freshens them in the eyes of voters who collectively yearn for Anybody But Bush.
Dean/Clark is our natural next step after Wisconsin. The media buzz and coverage will be a natural boost to Super Tuesday, and the operational and logistical advantages of the two top-funded candidates will also be a powerful argument to the mass of undecideds out there who still buy into the "electability" meme. It's our only hope.
It's time to start thinking about strategy again, instead of tactics. And one strategy that needs to be put on the table is to sweeten the deal for voters wondering why they should choose Dean. The answer is simple: Dean should choose a Veep running mate.
That running mate needs to be Southern, to compete against Edwards. And a military man, to compete against Kerry. The natural candidate would be Clark, but unless we win Wisconsin we can't make a decent argument to his camp as to why they should settle for #2. A Wisconsin win however will give Dean all the operational advantages - money, grassroots, and delegate count. Clark and Dean are competing for the same voters, just as Edwards and Kerry are (and I predict a Kerry/Edwards ticket on the horizon in practice if not in name soon enough). Dean needs to address the issue of basic survival with Clark, and point out that together they may yet stand whereas apart they fall.
Kerry/Edwards is going to be a compelling ticket. Certainly far better than Dean/X or Clark/X. But Dean/Clark is something else entirely - a civil union, whose whole is greater than the sum of their parts. The writing is on the wall for Clark and Dean regardless of wins in OK and WI - unless they find a way to make a bold move that freshens them in the eyes of voters who collectively yearn for Anybody But Bush.
Dean/Clark is our natural next step after Wisconsin. The media buzz and coverage will be a natural boost to Super Tuesday, and the operational and logistical advantages of the two top-funded candidates will also be a powerful argument to the mass of undecideds out there who still buy into the "electability" meme. It's our only hope.
This is the time for deeds, not words http://www3.deanforamerica.com/site/TR?pg=personal&fr_id=1090&px=1179278
The line in the sand has been drawn, and we must marshall our resources for this stand. If it is our last stand, let it be glorious. If in the end Wisconsin chooses Kerry over Dean, we can guarantee at least that Kerry will have had to fight for that honor.
We are only a few scant thousands away from having raised $40,000 for Dean. I have raised our Dean Nation goal to $45,000. Can we, Dean Nation, raise over $5,000 in two weeks? WE MUST. I have posted appeals to this blog for over a year to raise funds, for all of us to join the ranks of Dean Minutemen and Dean Riders, or even at the very least join the $100 Revolution. Many of you have responded, but many of you remain. THE TIME IS NOW.
WE MUST RAISE MONEY TO WIN WISCONSIN. This is our last stand. This is our Alamo.
Dean has been our candidate. Despite the disappointments of the past month, we must remember why Dean was our first choice. We held Dean to a high standard because we knew he would assume that responsibility and not let us down. We must do no less for him - else the entire idea that this reinvention of politics, the innovation of fundraising apart from the special interest, the very idea that we the People could have the Power to take our Country back - was a massive conceit.
WE must step to the plate as never before and show Dean that there is Power left in the People, and that his crusade of two years was not in vain. If we fail him now, Dean becomes nothing more than Don Quixote, tilting at the windmill of grassroots power, when in fact it was nothing more than an illusion arising from reading the Federalist Papers once too many times.
This is not a referendum on Dean. It is a referendum on US. We must respond to this call - and even if it be our last, we must make sure that we say to our children that yes, we fought for our country with the only tools and weapons we had.
This is your last chance to take your country back. Who will stand with me?
In Les Misérables, Enjolras asks his comrades, the people of Paris: "Do you hear the people sing? Singing the song of angry men?". Combeferre joins in, urging "Will you join in our crusade? Who will be strong and stand with me?" Indeed, beyond the barricades there is a world we long to see. The day is at hand, if only we have the resolve to seize it.
We are only a few scant thousands away from having raised $40,000 for Dean. I have raised our Dean Nation goal to $45,000. Can we, Dean Nation, raise over $5,000 in two weeks? WE MUST. I have posted appeals to this blog for over a year to raise funds, for all of us to join the ranks of Dean Minutemen and Dean Riders, or even at the very least join the $100 Revolution. Many of you have responded, but many of you remain. THE TIME IS NOW.
WE MUST RAISE MONEY TO WIN WISCONSIN. This is our last stand. This is our Alamo.
Dean has been our candidate. Despite the disappointments of the past month, we must remember why Dean was our first choice. We held Dean to a high standard because we knew he would assume that responsibility and not let us down. We must do no less for him - else the entire idea that this reinvention of politics, the innovation of fundraising apart from the special interest, the very idea that we the People could have the Power to take our Country back - was a massive conceit.
WE must step to the plate as never before and show Dean that there is Power left in the People, and that his crusade of two years was not in vain. If we fail him now, Dean becomes nothing more than Don Quixote, tilting at the windmill of grassroots power, when in fact it was nothing more than an illusion arising from reading the Federalist Papers once too many times.
This is not a referendum on Dean. It is a referendum on US. We must respond to this call - and even if it be our last, we must make sure that we say to our children that yes, we fought for our country with the only tools and weapons we had.
This is your last chance to take your country back. Who will stand with me?
In Les Misérables, Enjolras asks his comrades, the people of Paris: "Do you hear the people sing? Singing the song of angry men?". Combeferre joins in, urging "Will you join in our crusade? Who will be strong and stand with me?" Indeed, beyond the barricades there is a world we long to see. The day is at hand, if only we have the resolve to seize it.
This Was Always The Plan http://blog.deanforamerica.com/archives/003554.html
There's a lot of complaint over at the O-blog about Dean's insistence that we win Wisconsin.
But let's be clear. This was Roy Neel's plan all along.
At some point, a candidate who loses early must draw a line in the sand and say, "Here I stand or fail." Lieberman stood in Delaware, and failed. Clark stood in Oklahoma and succeeded. Edwards stood in South Carolina and succeeded.
Neel's plan does not depend on Edwards or Clark. He sees them as, essentially, regional candidates who can't compete with Kerry in the blue states.
Only Howard Dean can do that.
So it starts in Washington and Maine this weekend. We really need to win at least one of those, and do well in Michigan. Pull out all the stops and hope for the best.
But Neel's plan does not depend on Washington or Michigan or Maine. "We'll do well," is all he'll say. We won't put our fate on the line in a caucus. We want ground of our choosing.
Wisconsin is ground of our choosing. We're challenging Kerry there. We're doing there what Edwards did in South Carolina and Clark did in Oklahoma.
Frankly if we can't win in Wisconsin we can't win anywhere, and we should drop out.
So stop complaining, and work the plan. Roy Neel is the man Howard Dean chose, Neel is the man Dean believes in. Dean is the man we believe in, and this is the plan Dean decided upon after New Hampshire.
Work the plan.
But let's be clear. This was Roy Neel's plan all along.
At some point, a candidate who loses early must draw a line in the sand and say, "Here I stand or fail." Lieberman stood in Delaware, and failed. Clark stood in Oklahoma and succeeded. Edwards stood in South Carolina and succeeded.
Neel's plan does not depend on Edwards or Clark. He sees them as, essentially, regional candidates who can't compete with Kerry in the blue states.
Only Howard Dean can do that.
So it starts in Washington and Maine this weekend. We really need to win at least one of those, and do well in Michigan. Pull out all the stops and hope for the best.
But Neel's plan does not depend on Washington or Michigan or Maine. "We'll do well," is all he'll say. We won't put our fate on the line in a caucus. We want ground of our choosing.
Wisconsin is ground of our choosing. We're challenging Kerry there. We're doing there what Edwards did in South Carolina and Clark did in Oklahoma.
Frankly if we can't win in Wisconsin we can't win anywhere, and we should drop out.
So stop complaining, and work the plan. Roy Neel is the man Howard Dean chose, Neel is the man Dean believes in. Dean is the man we believe in, and this is the plan Dean decided upon after New Hampshire.
Work the plan.
Dean on Wisconsin: "The entire race has come down to this." http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=615&e=2&u=/nm/20040205/pl_nm/campaign_dean_dc
Dean has drawn a line in the sand. Clark and Edwards did this and they're still fighting. Gephardt and Lieberman did too and they went packing. It's Wisconsin or bust, folks. If Dean fails to win Wisconsin, we'll all be picking a new candidate.
"We must win Wisconsin," the former Vermont governor said in a memo to supporters. "A win there will carry us to the big states on March 2 -- and narrow the field to two candidates. Anything else will put us out of the race."
In a fund-raising plea, Dean, who spent $40 million on a gamble that he could wrap up the Democratic presidential nomination with early victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, asked supporters for $50 contributions so he could raise $700,000 by Sunday to pay for advertising in Wisconsin.
"We must launch our new television advertisement on Monday in the major markets in Wisconsin," he said. "To do that I need your help."
Daily Review
Campaigns move forward
Dean Vows to Continue
Wisconsin Donors Give More Money to Howard Dean
Is It Passion or Common Sense?
The great American snow job against Howard Dean
Howard Dean Wins the iVote Internet Primary
Dean Vows to Continue
Wisconsin Donors Give More Money to Howard Dean
Is It Passion or Common Sense?
The great American snow job against Howard Dean
Howard Dean Wins the iVote Internet Primary
Wednesday, February 04, 2004
Dean Does Madison
I went to my first meet-up tonight, as well as saw Dean in person for the first time. It was a real treat. The event was held in the Club Majestic, and I was standing on the completely full balcony, looking across at another completely full balcony on the other side and above the table area which was, of course, completely full. The volunteers were going around with their sign-up cards, where I signed up for a couple of things, and people all over were talking politics, from the Bush AWOL story to pre-emptive war. The crowd as a whole was so big that, as noted in the comments below, they had to start sending people into nearby buildings, and I think we in the Majestic were less than half the total turn-out.
I didn't recognize the first speaker, but he rocked, listing cities in Wisconsin which we are going to win before letting out the patented Dean "Yearrgghhh!" Kathleen Falk, the popular Dane County Executive went next, introducing the Governor. And then, Howard Dean stepped out. I had a brief period of adjustment, as happens when you've seen someone on TV for ages and ages and then suddenly he appears before you in the flesh, a real live human being with a voice and hair and skin. Yet that only lasted for a moment, for truly had you been there you would not think it too melodramatic to compare him to an avatar of the American spirit, exuding and drawing us into a vision of hope and can-do idealism before he even opened his mouth.
This was a charisma like I have never experienced before, and his presence is such that I say that although Dean is not known for his great height, in the mind's eye he was one of the taller figures around, taking control of the atmosphere in the room as surely as he has the atmosphere of this entire campaign. His only "gaffe" was when he talked about Michigan's affirmative action policy; regardless of the issues, defending Michigan is not permitted in Madison, a fact of which he was quickly informed by the audience. I keep hearing that John Kerry is Presidential because he looks like a President from central casting, but the people who say that do not have a sense of history. I have to admit the Kerry does look like a movie President, but then most movie Presidents are failing at defending us from aliens or something, not being "Presidential."
Howard Dean is a leader. He has led Vermont for over a decade. He has led his supporters to heights no one thought they could reach. He has led the Democratic field to its present stance on the issues. And soon, if all goes well, he shall lead America. For Howard Dean alone among all the candidates carries the aura of vision and the credentials of ability that make a true President. When deciding what counts as Presidential, we should not look at who's been in Congress the longest or who does the best job at following the standard political scripts - after all, Abraham Lincoln, perhaps our greatest President, was elected after a single term in Congress.
Rather, to be Presidential is to make people want the future which you can bring about. I want health insurance for every American according to a plan that will actually pass through Congress. I want to repair our international alliances so that the United States once more stands as the moral leader of the world. I want to globalize human rights and not just corporate rights so that we can have a world where people are more than just business assets to be discarded at will. And I want a country I can be proud of, a democracy where the special interests don't rule from the shadows, and where ordinary Americans once more control the processes of our own lives.
And that is why, when we picture the world 50 years from now, we can see the Howard Dean we've all come to know, a Howard Dean aged by his office, his face cast in marble like the great Presidents of old sitting before a painting of him in the oval office dealing with a crisis today unforeseen And as schoolchildren pass through on their field trips, they are told of how in a time of despair, this man brought the promise of a new beginning; of how when the forces of fear threatened to overwhelm our values this man brought hope and restoration; of how when people said he couldn't do something, he went ahead and proved them wrong, and most of all how he showed that the United States is not just a nation of special interests and pundit-identified population groups, but a community of shared ideals, ideals every generation of Americans has sought to live by and succeeded at just a little more than the one which came before. And then the schoolchildren will file out, anxious to be on with their lunch time, except for one little girl who remembers, and takes to heart the message of Howard Dean, and message which transcends today's issues even as it responds to them. And that little girl will go on to solve the problems of her day, enriched by an understanding of society and an example of how to lead it.
That is what it means to be Presidential. And while I think all the other Democrats are probably electable, I see only one as truly Presidential. And if that's the test for whom we should nominate, then let it be Howard Dean.
(By the way, sorry about not having pictures. I don't have a camera.)
I didn't recognize the first speaker, but he rocked, listing cities in Wisconsin which we are going to win before letting out the patented Dean "Yearrgghhh!" Kathleen Falk, the popular Dane County Executive went next, introducing the Governor. And then, Howard Dean stepped out. I had a brief period of adjustment, as happens when you've seen someone on TV for ages and ages and then suddenly he appears before you in the flesh, a real live human being with a voice and hair and skin. Yet that only lasted for a moment, for truly had you been there you would not think it too melodramatic to compare him to an avatar of the American spirit, exuding and drawing us into a vision of hope and can-do idealism before he even opened his mouth.
This was a charisma like I have never experienced before, and his presence is such that I say that although Dean is not known for his great height, in the mind's eye he was one of the taller figures around, taking control of the atmosphere in the room as surely as he has the atmosphere of this entire campaign. His only "gaffe" was when he talked about Michigan's affirmative action policy; regardless of the issues, defending Michigan is not permitted in Madison, a fact of which he was quickly informed by the audience. I keep hearing that John Kerry is Presidential because he looks like a President from central casting, but the people who say that do not have a sense of history. I have to admit the Kerry does look like a movie President, but then most movie Presidents are failing at defending us from aliens or something, not being "Presidential."
Howard Dean is a leader. He has led Vermont for over a decade. He has led his supporters to heights no one thought they could reach. He has led the Democratic field to its present stance on the issues. And soon, if all goes well, he shall lead America. For Howard Dean alone among all the candidates carries the aura of vision and the credentials of ability that make a true President. When deciding what counts as Presidential, we should not look at who's been in Congress the longest or who does the best job at following the standard political scripts - after all, Abraham Lincoln, perhaps our greatest President, was elected after a single term in Congress.
Rather, to be Presidential is to make people want the future which you can bring about. I want health insurance for every American according to a plan that will actually pass through Congress. I want to repair our international alliances so that the United States once more stands as the moral leader of the world. I want to globalize human rights and not just corporate rights so that we can have a world where people are more than just business assets to be discarded at will. And I want a country I can be proud of, a democracy where the special interests don't rule from the shadows, and where ordinary Americans once more control the processes of our own lives.
And that is why, when we picture the world 50 years from now, we can see the Howard Dean we've all come to know, a Howard Dean aged by his office, his face cast in marble like the great Presidents of old sitting before a painting of him in the oval office dealing with a crisis today unforeseen And as schoolchildren pass through on their field trips, they are told of how in a time of despair, this man brought the promise of a new beginning; of how when the forces of fear threatened to overwhelm our values this man brought hope and restoration; of how when people said he couldn't do something, he went ahead and proved them wrong, and most of all how he showed that the United States is not just a nation of special interests and pundit-identified population groups, but a community of shared ideals, ideals every generation of Americans has sought to live by and succeeded at just a little more than the one which came before. And then the schoolchildren will file out, anxious to be on with their lunch time, except for one little girl who remembers, and takes to heart the message of Howard Dean, and message which transcends today's issues even as it responds to them. And that little girl will go on to solve the problems of her day, enriched by an understanding of society and an example of how to lead it.
That is what it means to be Presidential. And while I think all the other Democrats are probably electable, I see only one as truly Presidential. And if that's the test for whom we should nominate, then let it be Howard Dean.
(By the way, sorry about not having pictures. I don't have a camera.)
report from Madison meetup
just received this email from Don Jones don_wis in the comments):
Let's get some photos!! For all you non-Madisonians, the Majestic is a big place. It used to be the Majestic Movie Theater. Ah, State Street in the spring...
Well, it is a blow-out. I had to leave early. But......
The Club Majestic is full...fire marshall said they have to now go to one out - one in. The great thing is they filled it during the fund-raising
period and you definitely could not get in without paying at least $25 a head.
They've arranged for overflow at Madison's (the next door bar and restaurant) and, I think, at the Argus (a bar a half block away that is one
of THE hangouts for legislative staff and members). The Gov. will hit those places after his Club Majestic appearance.
Good broad turnout...AFSCME, SEIU, UAW (!), a contingent of Libertarians with their state chair, GLBTI is out in force, also 'real' pols both party
Dems and labor Dems (here 'real' means folks who work campaigns almost professionally).
Very good mix of ages...very good.
Don (don_wis)
Let's get some photos!! For all you non-Madisonians, the Majestic is a big place. It used to be the Majestic Movie Theater. Ah, State Street in the spring...
Snapshot: Remember Who's Fighting For Us
There is no other option...
Aziz asked me to repost this from the comments section below, so here ya go. It's just my little rant about why we can't give up. If any of this is confusing, I was replying to a few comments left on Dana's "Just Win, Baby" post. You might want to read the string for the entire context.
And just to add a few more thoughts... the Democratic nominee will get my support no matter what happens. Bush must be stopped, his every lie exposed, and it will be up to the Democratic party to do that (lord knows Big Media won't). I will continue to work here in Texas to further the cause of participatory democracy, and if we can make Howard Dean the nominee I will be one happy camper. But if we don't, I'll still be in the trenches fighting against the right-wing ideologues that have co-opted the Republican party until they are driven from their positions of power and ostracised from the public debate. There is no other option. This country is in trouble, and it is up to we the people to change that.
One thing I've learned during this campaign is that if enough of us get together, we *can* create change. One of my biggest sources of frustration has always been that, as one person, I can't change this thing by myself. But together we are so powerful. We've already changed the tone of the debate, and we've shown the Democrats how to raise money under the new campaign finance laws. We've also helped refine the message that is now being used by all the contenders. We've got to follow through after the primaries with due diligence and make sure Bush is tossed from office, and we've got to continue to work on building up the party.
Bush must go, be it at the hands of Howard Dean or some other nominee. There is no other option but to stay and fight.
re, i feel like you do so often, and that's what howard dean sparked so much hope in me. i see in his platform a sensible way to get our country back on track. i see in the man a strong leader who won't lie to us and who doesn't have a zipper problem. i as well was disengaged for a few years. i've done my share of party building, but i've never been so vested in the outcome of a campaign. perhaps that's part of the problem. we haven't been able to get joe average vested in the success or failure of this campaign.
robert, i really appreciate your comments. i totally agree that the "product" was not properly marketed. dear god, if there's anything the rethuglicans gets right, it's marketing. it's a sad fact.
and as for the affection that many of us feel for trippi, for myself, i have that affection because i never thought that my contributions could matter. i never thought that anyone running a presidential campaign could ever care about what the average person thought. i never thought that *people mattered* to those in power. joe proved me wrong and showed me that we *can* matter. that we *do* matter. sure, he made some mistakes, but i'll always be grateful to him for reaching out to this community and taking what we said at face value.
what i fear most is that this was our last shot to matter, that this was the last campaign that really was "of, for, and by the people". i fear that if we don't reform the process *now* that we won't get another chance. i don't see any of the other campaigns valuing their supporters like DFA does (with the exception of the clark campaign, who really values their 'roots as well). and when people don't matter, what else does? money and power, i guess. and so many of us have fought so hard to change that. and i can honestly say that at this point it feels like we won't be able to accomplish that goal, and that would be the worst tragedy of all.
and god forbid we get four more years of the lying, awol, smirky squatter in the white house. i can't picture an america that would reelect that corrupt liar, yet like Re i meet people every day who are so oblivious to the damage that's been done over the past three years that sometimes it makes me want to throw my hands in the air and apply for canadian citizenship. but i refuse to be a quitter and leave this country in the hands of ignoramuses like NY. i mean, am i supposed to just give up and leave, or am i supposed to stay and fight like a good patriot would?
i choose to fight. and if america goes down, i'll go down with her knowing i've made every effort to right this sinking ship.
that's why i'm still here. that's why i'll continue to support howard dean until he tells me it's time to move on.
And just to add a few more thoughts... the Democratic nominee will get my support no matter what happens. Bush must be stopped, his every lie exposed, and it will be up to the Democratic party to do that (lord knows Big Media won't). I will continue to work here in Texas to further the cause of participatory democracy, and if we can make Howard Dean the nominee I will be one happy camper. But if we don't, I'll still be in the trenches fighting against the right-wing ideologues that have co-opted the Republican party until they are driven from their positions of power and ostracised from the public debate. There is no other option. This country is in trouble, and it is up to we the people to change that.
One thing I've learned during this campaign is that if enough of us get together, we *can* create change. One of my biggest sources of frustration has always been that, as one person, I can't change this thing by myself. But together we are so powerful. We've already changed the tone of the debate, and we've shown the Democrats how to raise money under the new campaign finance laws. We've also helped refine the message that is now being used by all the contenders. We've got to follow through after the primaries with due diligence and make sure Bush is tossed from office, and we've got to continue to work on building up the party.
Bush must go, be it at the hands of Howard Dean or some other nominee. There is no other option but to stay and fight.
Just Win, Baby
All right. Edwards and Clark have done the business.
In both states where Kerry was seriously challenged, he lost. He's vulnerable.
That is not the way my local paper is playing it, of course. Kerry won 5, we won zero.
Roy Neel told us to expect that. But now that Edwards and Clark have shown they are serious contenders we must do the same. Before this can become a two-man race, it must become a four-man race.
The longer Dean goes without a win, the bigger the monkey on our back becomes. Maybe he's just an acquired taste, like tequilla or truffles. That's how we're being thought of right now.
The only cure for that is a win, starting in Washington or Maine. (Michigan would be nice, and perhaps Kerry's new vulnerability makes that possible.) We have chosen the ground. Clark and Edwards will be pulling for us, because if no one can beat Kerry outside the South neither of them really stands a chance.
The theory Neel is operating on is that, the more Democratic the state, the better our chances. That theory will now be put to the test.
It's up to us. The pressure's on.
Just win, baby.
In both states where Kerry was seriously challenged, he lost. He's vulnerable.
That is not the way my local paper is playing it, of course. Kerry won 5, we won zero.
Roy Neel told us to expect that. But now that Edwards and Clark have shown they are serious contenders we must do the same. Before this can become a two-man race, it must become a four-man race.
The longer Dean goes without a win, the bigger the monkey on our back becomes. Maybe he's just an acquired taste, like tequilla or truffles. That's how we're being thought of right now.
The only cure for that is a win, starting in Washington or Maine. (Michigan would be nice, and perhaps Kerry's new vulnerability makes that possible.) We have chosen the ground. Clark and Edwards will be pulling for us, because if no one can beat Kerry outside the South neither of them really stands a chance.
The theory Neel is operating on is that, the more Democratic the state, the better our chances. That theory will now be put to the test.
It's up to us. The pressure's on.
Just win, baby.
Dean to attend today's Meetup in Wisconsin?
Can any of our resident Badgers confirm? I suspect Dean will attend either the Milwaukee or the Madison meetup ...
If its true, it makes much more sense than my earlier repeated insistence that the Meetup in Ann Arbor. Recent polls don't look that great for our chances in Michigan:
Kerry maintained his lead in Michigan just three days before state Democrats vote in caucuses, according to a statewide Detroit News/Mitchell tracking poll.
Kerry is favored by 56 percent of the 450 likely Michigan caucus voters surveyed.
Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean placed second in the poll with 12 percent support. Nearly 20 percent remain undecided.
The poll was conducted Sunday through Tuesday by The Detroit News/Mitchell Research & Communications Inc. The margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Michigan Democrats will vote at party caucuses from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. Saturday. About 25,000 voters already have cast ballots over the Internet or by mail.
Michigan is the first major industrial state in play, and the 128 pledged delegates at stake are the most of any contest to date.
though the Arab and the Muslim vote should hopefully come through to put us above the delegate threshold, and there's a large pool of undecideds whom we need to make our appeal to (remember: negative attacks backfire). Edwards will likely sit out Feb 7th.
The point is that Dean's only advantage is the grassroots - and the meetups are at the heart of that. Dean needs a return to roots, as it were. And Dean needs to keep looking ahead, to try and build momentum for Super Tuesday. That's been the plan the campaign has pursued and a real win in Wisconsin might make the difference.
Here's our ideal-realistic scenario:
Feb 7th: finish second in Michigan (competition: Kerry)
Feb 10th: win Virginia, finish second in Tennessee (competition: Edwards and Clark)
Feb 17th: win Wisconsin
Daily Review
Kerry will still have to compete for Democratic nomination
Door Is Open, if Not by Much
Dean Eyes the Next States
Howard Dean strikes back
Dean Focuses on Weekend
Howard Dean Holds Out Hope
Door Is Open, if Not by Much
Dean Eyes the Next States
Howard Dean strikes back
Dean Focuses on Weekend
Howard Dean Holds Out Hope
Tuesday, February 03, 2004
It's a nail-biter in New Mexico http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/states/NM/
Check out the numbers so far from New Mexico! Dean and Kerry are tied for 27%, Clark close behind with 25%, Edwards trailing distant 4th with 9%. Numbers as of 9:57 PM ET, but the votes are still being tallied...
UPDATE: Kerry pulled ahead by a respectable margin, and Clark eked out ahead of Dean to grab second. Still, Dean is above the delegate threshold. Remember that the pundits were calling Dean toast, yet he was still able to compete hard in New Mexico, despite no media presence.
UPDATE: Kerry pulled ahead by a respectable margin, and Clark eked out ahead of Dean to grab second. Still, Dean is above the delegate threshold. Remember that the pundits were calling Dean toast, yet he was still able to compete hard in New Mexico, despite no media presence.
Judy, Judy, Judy http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20040216&s=pollitt
I've been a longtime fan of Nation-columnist Katha Pollitt but this recent column about Dr. Judith Steinberg Dean -- helpfully and humorously titled "Judy, Judy, Judy" (remind anyone else of John Kerry muttering "Dean, Dean, Dean" or is it just me?) -- is absolutely a must read. And the good doctors make the cover of the magazine, no less. It's like Howard and Judy go to the zoo. How fitting. :-)
Best line in the article (okay, that's saying something):
OUCH. HEH.
Oh ok, one more:
Indeed.
Best line in the article (okay, that's saying something):
"The doctors Dean seem to be in need of some tips on togetherness and building a healthy political marriage," opined Maureen Dowd, a single woman who, even if she weds tomorrow, will be in a nursing home by the time she's been married for twenty-three years like the Deans.
OUCH. HEH.
Oh ok, one more:
What if the media tried on for size the notion that having an independent wife says something good about a candidate? For example, maybe, if his wife is not at his beck and call, he won't assume the sun rises because he wants to get up; maybe, if his wife has her own goals in life, her own path to tread, he won't think women were put on earth to further his ambitions; maybe, if he and his wife are true partners -- which is not the same as her pouring herself into his career and his being genuinely grateful, the best-case scenario of the traditional political marriage -- he may even see women as equals.
Indeed.
February 3, 2004 Vote Open Thread
Edwards has won SC. Trippi is on MSNBC and Roy Neel is speaking right now...
...go nuts...
...go nuts...
the Prize http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4147124/
You know, I feel pretty good tonight. I'm well aware that Dean is likely to be below the delegate threshold tonight in most of the states. But we have to have faith in ourselves. Right now there are thousands of Dean supporters out there working hard on visibility and outreach. And Dean is out there too, talking to ordinary people and getting his message out.
The main goal here is to build momentum, which can crest on Feb 7th. And then onwards to Feb 10th.
If the campaign falters, though, it won't be because we didn't try. I remain disappointed that Dean probably won't be at the Ann Arbor meetup, that he hasn't publicly leveraged his endorsements from Gore and Jesse Jackson Jr. yet. I am disappointed that Dean didn't seem to recognize the symbolic importance of South Carolina, or that Roy Neel hasn't said anything about Tennessee or Virginia yet. All these things are failures of motivation from the campaign - not us. But campaigns are large and massive entities that even the candidate himself doesn't really control so much as be tolerated by, like a wormrider from Dune.
At the end of the day today, Dean will have energized us. We remain convinced that he is the best candidate for the nomination, and we are acting on that belief. Some of us are on the ground, others are blogging, all of us have thrown in money at our bat time and time again - have you noticed we are almost at $40,000?
I feel good. This is February 3rd and the election is nine months away. Nine months is enough for a political gestation of sorts. We, Dean Nation and the 700k strong supporters of Dean are the embryonic seed of a new political movement. Dean may be at the apex of this new form of political life, but ultimately it is we who are the flesh and blood.
Stop looking at polls, Dean Nation. Stop looking at primaries! Start looking at the election, and at the energy that we have marshaled to get to where we are today. And reflect on this: we have only just begun to fight!
I'm feeding the bat tonight. Join me and let's make news tomorrow - Dean may not win delegates, but he is winning hearts and minds. And my dollars.
UPDATE: Joe Lieberman will likely withdraw if he doesn't win Delaware tonight. If that doesn't cheer you up, what will? :)
UPDATE 2: Superdelegates stand firm - and Al Gore is out there below the radar, where it counts!
The main goal here is to build momentum, which can crest on Feb 7th. And then onwards to Feb 10th.
If the campaign falters, though, it won't be because we didn't try. I remain disappointed that Dean probably won't be at the Ann Arbor meetup, that he hasn't publicly leveraged his endorsements from Gore and Jesse Jackson Jr. yet. I am disappointed that Dean didn't seem to recognize the symbolic importance of South Carolina, or that Roy Neel hasn't said anything about Tennessee or Virginia yet. All these things are failures of motivation from the campaign - not us. But campaigns are large and massive entities that even the candidate himself doesn't really control so much as be tolerated by, like a wormrider from Dune.
At the end of the day today, Dean will have energized us. We remain convinced that he is the best candidate for the nomination, and we are acting on that belief. Some of us are on the ground, others are blogging, all of us have thrown in money at our bat time and time again - have you noticed we are almost at $40,000?
I feel good. This is February 3rd and the election is nine months away. Nine months is enough for a political gestation of sorts. We, Dean Nation and the 700k strong supporters of Dean are the embryonic seed of a new political movement. Dean may be at the apex of this new form of political life, but ultimately it is we who are the flesh and blood.
Stop looking at polls, Dean Nation. Stop looking at primaries! Start looking at the election, and at the energy that we have marshaled to get to where we are today. And reflect on this: we have only just begun to fight!
I'm feeding the bat tonight. Join me and let's make news tomorrow - Dean may not win delegates, but he is winning hearts and minds. And my dollars.
UPDATE: Joe Lieberman will likely withdraw if he doesn't win Delaware tonight. If that doesn't cheer you up, what will? :)
UPDATE 2: Superdelegates stand firm - and Al Gore is out there below the radar, where it counts!
Al Gore campaigns for Democratic presidential hopeful Howard Dean Sunday at a church in Detroit. Michigan holds its Democratic primary on Saturday.
Trippi on MSNBC tonight
I was waiting for confirmation before posting this, and we've finally got it. Former Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi will be on the special edition of Hardball tonight. The show starts at 7pm EST, and from what I understand, Joe will be providing commentary on the election returns.
Also, consider this an open thread for this afternoon. I think all of us are pretty busy today, so posting may be light. The floor is yours.
Also, consider this an open thread for this afternoon. I think all of us are pretty busy today, so posting may be light. The floor is yours.
A random hodge-podge of thoughts
Today is mini-Tuesday, and Kos has a rundown of the latest poll numbers here. Adn according to some early diary reports, turnout has been through the roof in Delaware and South Carolina.
If we take nothing else from today - including delegates - it's that the Democrats are motivated and eager to beat Bush. They are going to the polls in droves, and that should scare the beejebus out of Karl Rove. If our base is motivated (and no doubt we must give at least partial credit to the Dean movement for this trend), that's a good thing. If we can draw in new voters, that's a good thing. Both Iowa and New Hampshire had great turnouts, record numbers of new voters, and some serious ABB displays. This bodes well for our party come November.
I'd also like to take a moment to thank everyone on this blog who's taken it upon themselves to get out in the streets and support Howard Dean. In particular, I'd like to recognise JenInSC, who pioneered the letter writing effort in South Carolina. Major kudos to the grassroots in Missouri, Delaware, North Dakota, Arizona, Oklahoma, and New Mexico as well. They have had a much tougher job over the past few weeks and they deserve serious applause for sticking with the plan and doing their best to GOTV. If we get *anything* out of today, it will be thanks to the grassroots. I just wanted to make sure that they know how much we appreciate and admire their efforts.
Looking forward, the Michigan contest isSunday Saturday. Michigan allows online voting, and many in the Dean camp have speculated that might help us. As of last week, only 7500 internet ballots had been cast and only 7500 have been cast via snail mail. Michigan is expecting a turnout of at least 100,000 voters. To add another twist, populat Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm endorsed John Kerry the other day. Congrats to the Kerry camp - Ms. Granholm is a great asset.
The great state of Maine is holding their caucus this weekend, and it looks like a Kerry-Dean tossup at the moment. Washington State also holds their contest thisSunday Saturday, and I think we all know that the Dean grassroots there are strong. For upcoming events in Washington state, please keep your eye on washington.deanforamerica.com.
By all accounts, we're looking pretty good in Wisconsin on Feb 17. although nothing is certain at this point and the situation is changing daily. Depending on how things shake down tonight (Edwards has pledged to drop out if he doesn't win South Carolina, and others may drop as well if they don't pull out key victories), Wisconsin could be the place where the anti-Kerry emerges.
Burlington has announced that employees will be getting paid again next week, which is a good thing. The money is still rolling in (over $3 million raised since Iowa), and the grassroots (while a bit shaken after the events of the past few weeks) are still growing. Over 630,000 Americans have joined Dean for America, and Meetup is close to 190,000.
Overall, compared to some of the other guys, we are doing just fine. But it's certainly crunch time, and I'm hoping the grassroots will be able to deliver some delegates today.
If we take nothing else from today - including delegates - it's that the Democrats are motivated and eager to beat Bush. They are going to the polls in droves, and that should scare the beejebus out of Karl Rove. If our base is motivated (and no doubt we must give at least partial credit to the Dean movement for this trend), that's a good thing. If we can draw in new voters, that's a good thing. Both Iowa and New Hampshire had great turnouts, record numbers of new voters, and some serious ABB displays. This bodes well for our party come November.
I'd also like to take a moment to thank everyone on this blog who's taken it upon themselves to get out in the streets and support Howard Dean. In particular, I'd like to recognise JenInSC, who pioneered the letter writing effort in South Carolina. Major kudos to the grassroots in Missouri, Delaware, North Dakota, Arizona, Oklahoma, and New Mexico as well. They have had a much tougher job over the past few weeks and they deserve serious applause for sticking with the plan and doing their best to GOTV. If we get *anything* out of today, it will be thanks to the grassroots. I just wanted to make sure that they know how much we appreciate and admire their efforts.
Looking forward, the Michigan contest is
The great state of Maine is holding their caucus this weekend, and it looks like a Kerry-Dean tossup at the moment. Washington State also holds their contest this
By all accounts, we're looking pretty good in Wisconsin on Feb 17. although nothing is certain at this point and the situation is changing daily. Depending on how things shake down tonight (Edwards has pledged to drop out if he doesn't win South Carolina, and others may drop as well if they don't pull out key victories), Wisconsin could be the place where the anti-Kerry emerges.
Burlington has announced that employees will be getting paid again next week, which is a good thing. The money is still rolling in (over $3 million raised since Iowa), and the grassroots (while a bit shaken after the events of the past few weeks) are still growing. Over 630,000 Americans have joined Dean for America, and Meetup is close to 190,000.
Overall, compared to some of the other guys, we are doing just fine. But it's certainly crunch time, and I'm hoping the grassroots will be able to deliver some delegates today.
Monday, February 02, 2004
An Open Secret http://www.opensecrets.org/presidential/index.asp?sort=C
Why are we so certain Dean can survive poor results tomorrow and continue on?
Well, it's an open secret.
Specifically, it's opensecrets.org, which collects financial reports from all the campaigns. Here's the key figure, cash on hand, as ofSaturday, January 31 December 31:
Howard Dean $9,647,361
Wesley Clark $3,404,975
Dennis Kucinich $2,629,441
John Kerry $1,605,428
Joe Lieberman $612,161
John Edwards $275,212
Al Sharpton $7,535
Now, victory will help Kerry re-charge. But how will Edwards, or Lieberman, if they fail to do well tomorrow? How will Sharpton?
Need some more confidence. Talk to the bat. Over $500,000 has come in since Saturday, just on the bat.
In other words, someone is going down tomorrow, and it is not going to be us. And where does Clark go from Oklahoma? Where is his infrastructure in Tennessee and Virginia?
No, it's not going to be easy. But we can do it. Let people know we're competing, with a few well-produced TV ads, let them know what the competition is, and people will come. Already, over 630,000 have come. More come all the time.
We can do this thing. We just have to execute. Let our competitors go down, one-by-one. Make the case against Kerry, and win.
Well, it's an open secret.
Specifically, it's opensecrets.org, which collects financial reports from all the campaigns. Here's the key figure, cash on hand, as of
Howard Dean $9,647,361
Wesley Clark $3,404,975
Dennis Kucinich $2,629,441
John Kerry $1,605,428
Joe Lieberman $612,161
John Edwards $275,212
Al Sharpton $7,535
Now, victory will help Kerry re-charge. But how will Edwards, or Lieberman, if they fail to do well tomorrow? How will Sharpton?
Need some more confidence. Talk to the bat. Over $500,000 has come in since Saturday, just on the bat.
In other words, someone is going down tomorrow, and it is not going to be us. And where does Clark go from Oklahoma? Where is his infrastructure in Tennessee and Virginia?
No, it's not going to be easy. But we can do it. Let people know we're competing, with a few well-produced TV ads, let them know what the competition is, and people will come. Already, over 630,000 have come. More come all the time.
We can do this thing. We just have to execute. Let our competitors go down, one-by-one. Make the case against Kerry, and win.
1992 Results http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/2/2/235151/6327
"Quantum" from Daily Kos has posted the results of the first 13 primaries/caucuses from 1992. Bill Clinton won exactly three. There are definitely differences between now and then, but this does show that every year is unique, and the early favorite can trip up quite easily. John Kerry is running off aura. I grew up across the river from Missouri and have a lot of friends and family from there, and I can tell you he should not be dominating based on anything else. And as that aura wears off, those who would declare the race over will discover that there's a contest again.
Another Ad http://www.cinemetrix.com/home/demo/dean
Several Massachusetts Deaniacs were interviewed for this ad for DFA.
Pass it on!
http://www.cinemetrix.com/home/demo/dean
Pass it on!
http://www.cinemetrix.com/home/demo/dean
the slow road http://www.tnr.com/blog/campaignjournal?pid=1274
Ryan Lizza's Campaign Journal blog has been essential reading. He takes a look at the delegate counts and offers a rather important critique of the stated strategy of the Dean campaign:
There's a reason Neel has been silent about Feb 10th - it's because they are ignoring the grassroots base. What's needed is a high-level call to arms by Dean himself to his supporters in the Feb 3rd and the Feb 10th states, to bracket his own personal efforts fpor Feb 7th.
The impression I get is that the campaign is trying to play it safe. Dean spoke openly about racial issues once - but now he is ceding South Carolina. And Jesse Jackson Jr has reportedly been seen with Kerry - not surprising given that Dean hasn't even tried to capitalize on that support or endorsement. Dean likewise spoke openly about the need to court the southern voter - and now it's Kerry who is on record as saying that the Southern voter has the same concerns as the northern one. Dean's message is being co-opted and with it, any distinction between him and the rest of the field.
The main advantage Dean has is us. We can only do so much on our own. But a campaign strategy that leaves gaping holes with barely any mention of how they can be filled - or even a public acknowledgement that the grassroots are being actively asked to plug them - is running with one hand tied behind its back.
According to Roy Neel's strategy memo, Dean is hoping for two paradoxical results tomorrow. On the one hand Neel wants Edwards and Clark cleared from the race. On the other hand he wants Kerry weakened. Of course, the way for Kerry to be weakened is for Clark and Edwards to beat Kerry in Oklahoma and South Carolina, thus keeping them viable. Neel is also silent on his plan for the February 10 Tennessee and Virginia contests, which together are worth 151 delegates.
Finally, Dean spent two years and $45 million trying a version of this strategy in Iowa and New Hampshire. It didn't work.
There's a reason Neel has been silent about Feb 10th - it's because they are ignoring the grassroots base. What's needed is a high-level call to arms by Dean himself to his supporters in the Feb 3rd and the Feb 10th states, to bracket his own personal efforts fpor Feb 7th.
The impression I get is that the campaign is trying to play it safe. Dean spoke openly about racial issues once - but now he is ceding South Carolina. And Jesse Jackson Jr has reportedly been seen with Kerry - not surprising given that Dean hasn't even tried to capitalize on that support or endorsement. Dean likewise spoke openly about the need to court the southern voter - and now it's Kerry who is on record as saying that the Southern voter has the same concerns as the northern one. Dean's message is being co-opted and with it, any distinction between him and the rest of the field.
The main advantage Dean has is us. We can only do so much on our own. But a campaign strategy that leaves gaping holes with barely any mention of how they can be filled - or even a public acknowledgement that the grassroots are being actively asked to plug them - is running with one hand tied behind its back.
Good News from Kerryland
QUESTION: If you hold a statewide organizing meeting in John Kerry's homestate only a few days after the New Hampshire primary -- and after much media crowing about Howard Dean being a has been and John Kerry being a shoo in -- will anyone show up?
ANSWER: You betcha.
On Saturday, January 31, Massachusetts for Dean held an all-day organizing meeting -- a morning session at UMass-Amherst and an afternoon session at Boston University. We planned the meeting in the midst of the Iowa and New Hampshire efforts. In other words, this meeting got planned in about a week and many folks in MA found out about it at the last minute and in the midst of the latest round of the anti-Dean media circus (which has been especially strong in Massachusetts, not surprisingly).
How many people showed up? Close to 50 in Western Mass, and well over 100 in Boston. It was standing room only to hear Steve Grossman (National Co-Chair of DFA) and the Governor's brother, Bill Dean (who lives in MA), and listen to presentations by MassforDean organizers about: what we'll be doing to help out in Michigan and Maine; registering MA voters by the February 11 deadline; MFD's media strategy; and GOTV in MA for March 2. The Q&A and breakout sessions were lively and went well beyond the time limits.
The energy at these meetings was INCREDIBLE. People are not discouraged; they are energized; they are determined. In some ways, it was like an enormous statewide meetup. There was a good mix of longtime Dean activists and quite a few newbies (we invited our whole mailing list and DFA sent out a notice to all their tens of thousands of supporters in MA).
We even got some media coverage. NECN (New England Cable News) dropped by the Boston session and interviewed Steve Grossman.
What we have built is amazing. What we have inspired is amazing. We are much more powerful than we sometimes think we are. And while we shouldn't kid ourselves -- this is going to be a tough tough climb -- we cannot forget: WE HAVE THE POWER. Onward!
ANSWER: You betcha.
On Saturday, January 31, Massachusetts for Dean held an all-day organizing meeting -- a morning session at UMass-Amherst and an afternoon session at Boston University. We planned the meeting in the midst of the Iowa and New Hampshire efforts. In other words, this meeting got planned in about a week and many folks in MA found out about it at the last minute and in the midst of the latest round of the anti-Dean media circus (which has been especially strong in Massachusetts, not surprisingly).
How many people showed up? Close to 50 in Western Mass, and well over 100 in Boston. It was standing room only to hear Steve Grossman (National Co-Chair of DFA) and the Governor's brother, Bill Dean (who lives in MA), and listen to presentations by MassforDean organizers about: what we'll be doing to help out in Michigan and Maine; registering MA voters by the February 11 deadline; MFD's media strategy; and GOTV in MA for March 2. The Q&A and breakout sessions were lively and went well beyond the time limits.
The energy at these meetings was INCREDIBLE. People are not discouraged; they are energized; they are determined. In some ways, it was like an enormous statewide meetup. There was a good mix of longtime Dean activists and quite a few newbies (we invited our whole mailing list and DFA sent out a notice to all their tens of thousands of supporters in MA).
We even got some media coverage. NECN (New England Cable News) dropped by the Boston session and interviewed Steve Grossman.
What we have built is amazing. What we have inspired is amazing. We are much more powerful than we sometimes think we are. And while we shouldn't kid ourselves -- this is going to be a tough tough climb -- we cannot forget: WE HAVE THE POWER. Onward!
Today's Inspiration http://artsci.wustl.edu/~gsbarkin/Dean
Graduate student Gareth Barkin has home-produced one of the best Dean commercials I've seen in some time.
The link in the paragraph above is to a Windows Media Player file. The link in the headline leads to files in other formats.
This has been one of the chief grassroots complaints against the campaign, the quality of its commercials. Since I don't live in Iowa I didn't see any of the official ads, but I can tell you this one is pretty good. It combines an honest attack on John Kerry's record with an uplifting pitch for the Dean message. Its only fault is the length -- 1:30. But that can be fixed.
The link in the paragraph above is to a Windows Media Player file. The link in the headline leads to files in other formats.
This has been one of the chief grassroots complaints against the campaign, the quality of its commercials. Since I don't live in Iowa I didn't see any of the official ads, but I can tell you this one is pretty good. It combines an honest attack on John Kerry's record with an uplifting pitch for the Dean message. Its only fault is the length -- 1:30. But that can be fixed.
Dean must attend the Feb 4th Meetup in Ann Arbor http://dean2004.meetup.com/537
Roy Neel gets it partly right:
I'm pleased to see that the campaign is making stops in Feb 7th states while the rest of the field focuses on the Feb 3rd lineup - but remember that Clark had weeks to himself in New Hampshire, yet still finished 4th (sans delegates).
A rally, even with thousands in attendance, is just a stump speech. A Meetup however is something far more tangible. Meetups, unlike rallies, are where we really convert hearts and minds to this cause, as opposed to rewarding those who have already signed on.
And Michigan is the prize - here are teh number of delegates at stake by state (via Ryan Lizza):
Focus, oh Wolverines! You must get Dean to the Ann Arbor Meetup on Feb 4th. If Dean does not show, I predict he will lose the state. It's up to us to make the case.
Thanks to many of you, our crowds over the past week have been phenomenal -- thousands in Michigan, South Carolina, Missouri, New Mexico, Arizona, Washington, Milwaukee, and Detroit. Tomorrow Gov. Dean will be in New Mexico and Arizona, back to Washington, Wisconsin, and Michigan. He is the quintessential Energizer bunny of presidential campaigning -- I'm amazed by his energy and durability!
I'm pleased to see that the campaign is making stops in Feb 7th states while the rest of the field focuses on the Feb 3rd lineup - but remember that Clark had weeks to himself in New Hampshire, yet still finished 4th (sans delegates).
A rally, even with thousands in attendance, is just a stump speech. A Meetup however is something far more tangible. Meetups, unlike rallies, are where we really convert hearts and minds to this cause, as opposed to rewarding those who have already signed on.
And Michigan is the prize - here are teh number of delegates at stake by state (via Ryan Lizza):
February 3 (269)
South Carolina (45)
Missouri (74)
North Dakota (14)
Arizona (55)
New Mexico (26)
Delaware (15)
Oklahoma (40)
February 7 (204)
Michigan (128)
Washington (76)
Focus, oh Wolverines! You must get Dean to the Ann Arbor Meetup on Feb 4th. If Dean does not show, I predict he will lose the state. It's up to us to make the case.
The 15% Solution
Clinton's famous line of fighting "until the last dog dies" is fitting this morning.
That's what the Dean grassroots have to do tomorrow. Because a lot of media pundits will want to stick a fork in us after the results come in.
But we're fighting, in every state. Jason Gervich sent a letter he got printed in the Arizona Republic on Dean's electability. The o-blog is filled with heart-warming stories of Dean visibility in New Mexico, in North Dakota, in Delaware -- in all the February 3 states.
And the Good Doctor himself has been racing across the country like a man possessed, rallying the troops. Even Roy Neel has found a more down-home voice on the o-blog.
Just so we're crystal clear on what we need tomorrow.
Delegates.
We can get delegates in any Congressional District where Dean scores 15% of the vote. Even if we get, say, 8% in one state, we still score delegates if it's 15% in a CD.
And not all these races are primaries, either. North Dakota is a caucus. Governor Dean drew over 500 to a North Dakota rally just a few months ago. We can do well there if we just show up.
Also, ignore the spin. This is last-gasp time for Lieberman, Sharpton, Edwards, and Clark -- not us. If Lieberman gets shut-out, if Sharpton or Edwards can't win South Carolina, and if Clark can't win Oklahoma, they're gone. That's OK -- it brings the one-on-one contest with Kerry closer. And if any of these candidates scores a breakthrough tomorrow that's also good, because it slows Kerry's momentum.
We don't have to win. So if we do win anywhere it's huge. And we have a great organization, especially in the Hispanic communities, in New Mexico and Arizona. We've got a ton of fans in North Dakota. We've been organizing Delaware. (I hope I'm not leaving anyone out.) Just remember, tomorrow is about delegates, not ultimate victory.
Let's get some delegates. Remember the 15% solution. Better days are coming.
That's what the Dean grassroots have to do tomorrow. Because a lot of media pundits will want to stick a fork in us after the results come in.
But we're fighting, in every state. Jason Gervich sent a letter he got printed in the Arizona Republic on Dean's electability. The o-blog is filled with heart-warming stories of Dean visibility in New Mexico, in North Dakota, in Delaware -- in all the February 3 states.
And the Good Doctor himself has been racing across the country like a man possessed, rallying the troops. Even Roy Neel has found a more down-home voice on the o-blog.
Just so we're crystal clear on what we need tomorrow.
Delegates.
We can get delegates in any Congressional District where Dean scores 15% of the vote. Even if we get, say, 8% in one state, we still score delegates if it's 15% in a CD.
And not all these races are primaries, either. North Dakota is a caucus. Governor Dean drew over 500 to a North Dakota rally just a few months ago. We can do well there if we just show up.
Also, ignore the spin. This is last-gasp time for Lieberman, Sharpton, Edwards, and Clark -- not us. If Lieberman gets shut-out, if Sharpton or Edwards can't win South Carolina, and if Clark can't win Oklahoma, they're gone. That's OK -- it brings the one-on-one contest with Kerry closer. And if any of these candidates scores a breakthrough tomorrow that's also good, because it slows Kerry's momentum.
We don't have to win. So if we do win anywhere it's huge. And we have a great organization, especially in the Hispanic communities, in New Mexico and Arizona. We've got a ton of fans in North Dakota. We've been organizing Delaware. (I hope I'm not leaving anyone out.) Just remember, tomorrow is about delegates, not ultimate victory.
Let's get some delegates. Remember the 15% solution. Better days are coming.
Sunday, February 01, 2004
SPECIAL interest Kerry
Since Tuesday many people on this blog (and the o-blog) have been suggesting what issue will knock John Kerry down, and give our guy another shot at winning this thing.
We’ve had fair charges (Dukakis-Kerry) and unproven charges (Botox-Kerry). We’ve had irrelevant charges (Ketchup-Kerry) and relevant ones (Waffler-Kerry).
But the only judge who counts, Howard Dean, has spoken, on Meet The Press this morning. The winning entry is (drum roll)… Special Interest Kerry.
Pictured (so as not to annoy the good people of Kellogg, in Battle Creek, Michigan, site of a primary this Saturday) is a failed extension of the “Special K” line. (The original product is delicious. I have some in my pantry right now.) Kerry, like the product pictured, will, if chosen, fail in the market.
To be effective a charge must not only be true, it must play into existing doubts about a candidate. This charge does, because it shows that Kerry, like Bush, says one thing and does the opposite. He’s as phony as a “compassionate conservative.”
Here is the story on which the charge is based, which in turn is based on a simple analysis of campaign finance records.
But wait, there’s more:
So, can John Kerry make the most important case of this campaign, namely that George W. Bush is beholden to special interests and a Democratic President won’t be?
The answer is he cannot. He will be taken apart by the Bush machine, plucked like a chicken. He is the easiest candidate for George W. Bush to beat, not the hardest.
The hardest is the man who has gotten his money from people like you, and thus is only beholden to people like you.
If Democrats are serious about winning, and serious about making a difference, the candidate they must choose, starting in Wisconsin, is Governor Howard Dean. It’s now up to us to make this case in every way, and every place, we possibly can.
We’ve had fair charges (Dukakis-Kerry) and unproven charges (Botox-Kerry). We’ve had irrelevant charges (Ketchup-Kerry) and relevant ones (Waffler-Kerry).
But the only judge who counts, Howard Dean, has spoken, on Meet The Press this morning. The winning entry is (drum roll)… Special Interest Kerry.
Pictured (so as not to annoy the good people of Kellogg, in Battle Creek, Michigan, site of a primary this Saturday) is a failed extension of the “Special K” line. (The original product is delicious. I have some in my pantry right now.) Kerry, like the product pictured, will, if chosen, fail in the market.
To be effective a charge must not only be true, it must play into existing doubts about a candidate. This charge does, because it shows that Kerry, like Bush, says one thing and does the opposite. He’s as phony as a “compassionate conservative.”
Here is the story on which the charge is based, which in turn is based on a simple analysis of campaign finance records.
While Senator John Kerry regularly promises to stand up to "big corporations," his campaign has taken money from executives on Wall Street and those representing the telecommunications industry, which is under his purview in Congress. Mr. Kerry denounces President Bush for catering to the rich, but he has depended more heavily on affluent donors than the other leading Democrats except for another populist, Senator John Edwards.
But wait, there’s more:
Mr. Kerry has criticized the current "creed of greed" and faulted Mr. Bush letting "the privileged ride high and reap the rewards." But his typical donors share at least one similarity with the president's, an ability to give $2,000, the legal maximum.
Fifty-five percent of Mr. Kerry's money has come from donors giving $2,000. For Mr. Bush, the comparable figure is 73 percent, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.
The center's analysis shows that small donors, those giving $200 or less, have provided 12 percent of Mr. Kerry's campaign money, the same percentage they provided for Mr. Bush.
So, can John Kerry make the most important case of this campaign, namely that George W. Bush is beholden to special interests and a Democratic President won’t be?
The answer is he cannot. He will be taken apart by the Bush machine, plucked like a chicken. He is the easiest candidate for George W. Bush to beat, not the hardest.
The hardest is the man who has gotten his money from people like you, and thus is only beholden to people like you.
If Democrats are serious about winning, and serious about making a difference, the candidate they must choose, starting in Wisconsin, is Governor Howard Dean. It’s now up to us to make this case in every way, and every place, we possibly can.
Saturday, January 31, 2004
Trippi Still Working After NH Concession Speech
What a warrior.
It's a Ground War http://dean.postersforamerica.com
The bat is still swinging, but the campaign doesn't have the money for an air war in the next seven states. To pick up delegates, we need a ground war from the grassroots. The grassroots built this campaign, and they can do it again, this weekend - help show that you still support Howard Dean. Pick a pre-designed sign or easily create your own:
One-on-One
What makes Roy Neel so confident Howard Dean can come back?
First, there is us. We may not be able to win a primary by ourselves, but we can certainly keep Dr. Dean from meeting Howard's End. With $1.4 million on the bat, with thousands of activists in every February 3 state, we may not win any but we won't be shut out of delegates.
Second, there is the math facing General Clark, and Senator Edwards. They're from the South, they have to do well there. If the Massachusetts Senator smokes them in places like Oklahoma, Arizona and South Carolina, their funds are going to dry up faster than water on a hot griddle. At that point, he expects, the networks will point at Sharpton, Lieberman and Kucinich, then point to the door. (If Clark or Edwards pulls a surprise Tuesday, by the way, good for our side, because it slows Kerry's mometum.)
Third, of course, Neel is aiming for the small table. That's where the late debates are often held, around a small table. Even if there's no table, the rules are adjusted, so candidates can no longer rely on their stump speeches and have to think on their feet.
This is where Howard Dean will shine through. Consider how well he did on Hardball after the Thursday debate? Fifteen minutes of fast back-and-forth on Iraq, he talked as rapidly as the hosts, and he finished with his very best point -- the enemy of my enemy may not be my friend, he's my enemy. Devastating.
Kerry can't survive in that kind of hothouse. Dean will tear him apart. Neel is depending on that, and I think he's right.
First, there is us. We may not be able to win a primary by ourselves, but we can certainly keep Dr. Dean from meeting Howard's End. With $1.4 million on the bat, with thousands of activists in every February 3 state, we may not win any but we won't be shut out of delegates.
Second, there is the math facing General Clark, and Senator Edwards. They're from the South, they have to do well there. If the Massachusetts Senator smokes them in places like Oklahoma, Arizona and South Carolina, their funds are going to dry up faster than water on a hot griddle. At that point, he expects, the networks will point at Sharpton, Lieberman and Kucinich, then point to the door. (If Clark or Edwards pulls a surprise Tuesday, by the way, good for our side, because it slows Kerry's mometum.)
Third, of course, Neel is aiming for the small table. That's where the late debates are often held, around a small table. Even if there's no table, the rules are adjusted, so candidates can no longer rely on their stump speeches and have to think on their feet.
This is where Howard Dean will shine through. Consider how well he did on Hardball after the Thursday debate? Fifteen minutes of fast back-and-forth on Iraq, he talked as rapidly as the hosts, and he finished with his very best point -- the enemy of my enemy may not be my friend, he's my enemy. Devastating.
Kerry can't survive in that kind of hothouse. Dean will tear him apart. Neel is depending on that, and I think he's right.
Friday, January 30, 2004
Roy's Mis-speak http://blog.deanforamerica.com/archives/003471.html
I get what Roy Neel is saying.
We don't have to win Tuesday. We don't even have to win the following Saturday.
If we just hang around, picking up delegates where we can, and saving all that money coming in off the bat, we can get Kerry all alone, starting around Wisconsin, and most delegates will still be unchosen.
In other words, we're to become the "anti-Kerry."
Fine. Good. Wonderful. But does he have to put it this way:
When he could just as easily have put it this way:
The first is the language of a Washington insider, writing for the punditocracy. The second is the language of a general directing his troops toward the next big battle and forward toward ultimate victory. The first could have gone off in an e-mail to the Washington press corps. We need something more.
With all the pundits now writing us off, what we need from our general most right now is a pep talk. It doesn't have to sound like Joe Trippi. We know Joe Trippi. We love Joe Trippi. Roy Neel is no Joe Trippi.
Sigh. I guess I just miss ol' Joe.
We don't have to win Tuesday. We don't even have to win the following Saturday.
If we just hang around, picking up delegates where we can, and saving all that money coming in off the bat, we can get Kerry all alone, starting around Wisconsin, and most delegates will still be unchosen.
In other words, we're to become the "anti-Kerry."
Fine. Good. Wonderful. But does he have to put it this way:
we have elected to not buy television advertisements in February 3 states, but instead direct our resources toward the February 7 and 8 contests in Michigan, Washington and Maine. We may not win any February 3 state, but even third place finishes will allow us to move forward, continue to amass delegates in Virginia and Tennessee on February 10, and then strongly challenge Kerry in Wisconsin.
When he could just as easily have put it this way:
We have decided to fully empower our grassroots supporters through February 17. We believe you will keep us competitive while other candidates falter.
This has always been your campaign and, for the next true weeks, that will literally be the case. We believe you can shock the world, that with your hard work we can turn this race around, and that we can dominate the delegate selection process from Wisconsin onward.
You have the tools, you have the enthusiasm, you have the will to take this party back and take this country back.
Let's go get 'em!
The first is the language of a Washington insider, writing for the punditocracy. The second is the language of a general directing his troops toward the next big battle and forward toward ultimate victory. The first could have gone off in an e-mail to the Washington press corps. We need something more.
With all the pundits now writing us off, what we need from our general most right now is a pep talk. It doesn't have to sound like Joe Trippi. We know Joe Trippi. We love Joe Trippi. Roy Neel is no Joe Trippi.
Sigh. I guess I just miss ol' Joe.
The Misunderstanding of Judy Dean http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4066284/
For those who haven't seen this, Gersh Kuntzman over at Newsweek/MSNBC writes a very complimentary article on Judith Steinberg Dean. It's just one more reason I have so much respect for both Howard and Judith Steinberg Dean. When I read this, I thought "finally, somebody gets it." This isn't some sort of slick media play to attract points. Howard and Judy are real people. Vermonters know this and understand who they are - I think many of the people who have become involved in this campaign appreciate a "real person" running for president. Howard and Judy Dean are certainly real people - good and bad together. Capable of doing great things, and capable of making mistakes and moving on.
I'm tired of demanding "the right look" for president. I want a President and First Lady with substance and self-awareness. I thought this article just reflected so well on Judy - and it says something positive about Howard's character that he picked such a woman to be his partner.
"In what is supposedly an enlightened age for women, we in the media should be celebrating Dean's independence, not questioning it. Shouldn't it be refreshing to meet a woman who'd prefer to be a doctor than gazing longingly from the edge of the stage as her husband delivers the seventh identical stump speech of the day? (And how come all of my supposedly gifted media colleagues missed the irony of an independent, modern woman, who nonetheless has one foot in that bygone age of doctors who make house calls? That alone should have won her points.)"
In The Interview, Mrs. Dean again showed us her humility, her professionalism, her dedication, her...what's that word?...her integrity (I almost forgot the word because it's such a rare sight on television). Every time Dean opened her mouth, I found myself hoping that my daughter grows up to be Judith Steinberg Dean.
Yet the more she spoke, the more "sins" she rang up.
"I don't watch TV that much," she said. Diane was visibly upset.
"I am kind of private...and I have a medical practice which I love," she said later. "And I think it's really important for me, and Howard knows it's important to me. But, I also love Howard, and I think he would make a terrific president...And, I think if I can help him, I will. And that doesn't mean he's going to disrupt my life, disrupt my patients, my son, but if he calls on a Saturday, and I'm not on call that weekend, I'll be out there Sunday." Imagine that, a husband and wife who support each other's careers. Diane was skeptical."
The interview goes on like this. At any rate, thought I'd share it with all of you... and three cheers for Judy!
I'm tired of demanding "the right look" for president. I want a President and First Lady with substance and self-awareness. I thought this article just reflected so well on Judy - and it says something positive about Howard's character that he picked such a woman to be his partner.
"In what is supposedly an enlightened age for women, we in the media should be celebrating Dean's independence, not questioning it. Shouldn't it be refreshing to meet a woman who'd prefer to be a doctor than gazing longingly from the edge of the stage as her husband delivers the seventh identical stump speech of the day? (And how come all of my supposedly gifted media colleagues missed the irony of an independent, modern woman, who nonetheless has one foot in that bygone age of doctors who make house calls? That alone should have won her points.)"
In The Interview, Mrs. Dean again showed us her humility, her professionalism, her dedication, her...what's that word?...her integrity (I almost forgot the word because it's such a rare sight on television). Every time Dean opened her mouth, I found myself hoping that my daughter grows up to be Judith Steinberg Dean.
Yet the more she spoke, the more "sins" she rang up.
"I don't watch TV that much," she said. Diane was visibly upset.
"I am kind of private...and I have a medical practice which I love," she said later. "And I think it's really important for me, and Howard knows it's important to me. But, I also love Howard, and I think he would make a terrific president...And, I think if I can help him, I will. And that doesn't mean he's going to disrupt my life, disrupt my patients, my son, but if he calls on a Saturday, and I'm not on call that weekend, I'll be out there Sunday." Imagine that, a husband and wife who support each other's careers. Diane was skeptical."
The interview goes on like this. At any rate, thought I'd share it with all of you... and three cheers for Judy!
The Biggest Bush Fraud Of All
Time out for an issue vital to the 2004 Electoral Finals, namely the economy.
The Bush Administration claims everything is lovely. They base this on two quarters’ GDP growth, which itself is based heavily on rising stock prices.
Prices are up from a year ago, as much as 20%. But the fact that is being hidden is that the value of the dollar is also down, by an equal (sometimes greater) amount.
This does not just mean a European vacation is out of the question. It also means that foreign investments in our economy are, despite the rising stock market, actually falling in value. Japanese, Chinese, Arab, and European investors are all losing money on their dollar investments.
Now consider that both our trade and budget deficits are largely funded by foreigners. China’s purchases of dollars are the biggest “seller financing” deal of all time. (We get stuff, they get dollars, they don’t change those dollars into Chinese currency.) It won’t continue if the value of those dollars keeps declining.
Consider too that for generations the dollar has been a “reserve currency.” Oil is priced in dollars, and our government pays for the national debt in dollars. This is an advantage enjoyed by no one else. Every economic collapse in the developing world, whether in Asia, Africa or Argentina, is tied to their currency’s fall in value against the dollar. Their loans were in dollars, their currency fell against the dollar, so no matter how much they paid back, they owed more and more. No other nation, other than ours, can actually finance its debts by just printing more money.
That is about to change. Oil exporters won’t take dollars forever if those dollars turn to water in their hands. Bankers won’t lend us dollars forever if those dollars turn to water, either.
At some point, maybe this year, Russia or Saudi Arabia could start demanding oil payments in something more stable, say, Euros. As the Euro becomes a “reserve currency” our economic power wanes permanently. So does our economic independence. Our best companies, even our land, can all be had on the cheap.
A falling dollar fuels higher interest rates, higher prices, and falling real incomes, even if things seem OK in the short term. George W. Bush did this deliberately. A falling dollar makes our exports cheaper, and imports more expensive. It’s short-term gain for long-term pain. He hopes to keep the scam going through, say, November.
There is only one Democrat who has called Bush and Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan on this fraud. That Democrat is Howard Dean.
The question for America today is this? Are you going to let Bush get away with this fraud as well?
No? So what are you doing TODAY to make sure he doesn’t?
The Bush Administration claims everything is lovely. They base this on two quarters’ GDP growth, which itself is based heavily on rising stock prices.
Prices are up from a year ago, as much as 20%. But the fact that is being hidden is that the value of the dollar is also down, by an equal (sometimes greater) amount.
This does not just mean a European vacation is out of the question. It also means that foreign investments in our economy are, despite the rising stock market, actually falling in value. Japanese, Chinese, Arab, and European investors are all losing money on their dollar investments.
Now consider that both our trade and budget deficits are largely funded by foreigners. China’s purchases of dollars are the biggest “seller financing” deal of all time. (We get stuff, they get dollars, they don’t change those dollars into Chinese currency.) It won’t continue if the value of those dollars keeps declining.
Consider too that for generations the dollar has been a “reserve currency.” Oil is priced in dollars, and our government pays for the national debt in dollars. This is an advantage enjoyed by no one else. Every economic collapse in the developing world, whether in Asia, Africa or Argentina, is tied to their currency’s fall in value against the dollar. Their loans were in dollars, their currency fell against the dollar, so no matter how much they paid back, they owed more and more. No other nation, other than ours, can actually finance its debts by just printing more money.
That is about to change. Oil exporters won’t take dollars forever if those dollars turn to water in their hands. Bankers won’t lend us dollars forever if those dollars turn to water, either.
At some point, maybe this year, Russia or Saudi Arabia could start demanding oil payments in something more stable, say, Euros. As the Euro becomes a “reserve currency” our economic power wanes permanently. So does our economic independence. Our best companies, even our land, can all be had on the cheap.
A falling dollar fuels higher interest rates, higher prices, and falling real incomes, even if things seem OK in the short term. George W. Bush did this deliberately. A falling dollar makes our exports cheaper, and imports more expensive. It’s short-term gain for long-term pain. He hopes to keep the scam going through, say, November.
There is only one Democrat who has called Bush and Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan on this fraud. That Democrat is Howard Dean.
The question for America today is this? Are you going to let Bush get away with this fraud as well?
No? So what are you doing TODAY to make sure he doesn’t?
Diane Sawyer Gets Religion http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/news/012904_nw_dean_scream_abcnews.html
A quick post -- courtesy of John and Tom on the Zonkboard -- about Diane Sawyer's recent (yesterday) review of the media's treatment of the "I Have a Scream" speech.
In short, Diane gets many network bigwigs to admit that they blew it way out of proportion and didn't put the speech in context -- i.e. Dean had to shout to be heard over the roar of 3000+ supporters. A fact that many of us who were there, including many reporters, knew all along.
A rare case indeed to have the mainstream media admit they made a big blunder. Perhaps we should write this date on our calendars...
Read the story here; watch the segment here.
In short, Diane gets many network bigwigs to admit that they blew it way out of proportion and didn't put the speech in context -- i.e. Dean had to shout to be heard over the roar of 3000+ supporters. A fact that many of us who were there, including many reporters, knew all along.
A rare case indeed to have the mainstream media admit they made a big blunder. Perhaps we should write this date on our calendars...
Read the story here; watch the segment here.
February 3 Is Up To Us
I wish Roy Neel had said this more explicitly. But the message seems clear to me nonetheless, and it should be clear to you.
The Dean campaign is going to put its ad money into the February 7 states with the most delegates. February 3 belongs to the grassroots.
I know we "failed" in Iowa, and in New Hampshire. But I have a theory on that.
We were too thick on the ground. We tried too hard. We put too many chips on "red" and, when we didn't win outright, we looked like losers.
Not just Dean. But Dean Nation.
Well this weekend is our chance for redemption. If you live in Missouri, Arizona, New Mexico, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Delaware, or North Dakota, we are all depending on you this weekend.
The Web site has the tools. Voting has begun in most of those states. You can be bringing people to the polls NOW. You can be distributing literature, you can be launching phone trees, you can be e-mailing links to things like Common Sense
You can even, if you choose, add your own negative talking points. It's not being done by Dean for America. It's up to you.
If the grassroots can turn out a better-than-expected showing, if they can win only one or two of these states with no help from Burlington, then the story of February 3 will be about our power, and how Kerry failed.
Get to work, people. You have four days to turn America around.
The Dean campaign is going to put its ad money into the February 7 states with the most delegates. February 3 belongs to the grassroots.
I know we "failed" in Iowa, and in New Hampshire. But I have a theory on that.
We were too thick on the ground. We tried too hard. We put too many chips on "red" and, when we didn't win outright, we looked like losers.
Not just Dean. But Dean Nation.
Well this weekend is our chance for redemption. If you live in Missouri, Arizona, New Mexico, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Delaware, or North Dakota, we are all depending on you this weekend.
The Web site has the tools. Voting has begun in most of those states. You can be bringing people to the polls NOW. You can be distributing literature, you can be launching phone trees, you can be e-mailing links to things like Common Sense
You can even, if you choose, add your own negative talking points. It's not being done by Dean for America. It's up to you.
If the grassroots can turn out a better-than-expected showing, if they can win only one or two of these states with no help from Burlington, then the story of February 3 will be about our power, and how Kerry failed.
Get to work, people. You have four days to turn America around.
Daily Review
Transcript: Democratic Candidates Debate in South Carolina
Kerry not unstoppable, analysts say
The Dead Center
Gwen Ifill speaks with former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean
Howard Dean is visiting Michigan
Democrats vow to roll back Bush tax cuts
Kerry not unstoppable, analysts say
The Dead Center
Gwen Ifill speaks with former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean
Howard Dean is visiting Michigan
Democrats vow to roll back Bush tax cuts
Face Facts
Let us face some facts.
1). This race is not over.
2). Even if Dean loses the nod, our movement is not over.
3). If indeed Dean loses the nod, we, WE, must keep this movement alive.
4). If Kerry gets the nod, his first test of leadership is to bring us in. I predict he might fail -- but if that happens (and I think we still could win -- and will, I pray) I hope he is successful. However, I doubt his leadership. Despite his Vietnam record, this man is a whiny coward (in my view) and that concerns me -- greatly. Much.
5). If, somehow, we do not get the nod (and we may not) I beg of thee -- we must, at all costs, keep this movement alive. We ARE the...
Fiscally Responsible Progressive Wing of the Democratic Party
And yes, Kerry-Heinz, I'll consider leaving ya'll behind -- yes, an unswaying stalwart Dem like me....will do nothing more than vote for you -- you want us Dean folks to lift a finger for you? Overture, overture, again......make it good.
Overture, and sing, sing, sing. A promise or two would help.
Finally, speaking of "electability" -- Dems are having some suicidal thoughts, I guess. Dean, the Leftish Reagan Wild Card, is the ONLY one who could win (except maybe Edwards).
We must fight ever and harder and more relentlessly than ever.
Do you wanna volunteer for Kerry?
Exactly. The time is now, do what you can -- this could, be, perhaps, the only moment in our lives to Take Back America!
What can, what will, you do?
As I've stated in other posts on different topics:
NOW, FOLKS: IT-IS-TIME
We can win this, if you, YOU! -- will do all YOU can do.
1). This race is not over.
2). Even if Dean loses the nod, our movement is not over.
3). If indeed Dean loses the nod, we, WE, must keep this movement alive.
4). If Kerry gets the nod, his first test of leadership is to bring us in. I predict he might fail -- but if that happens (and I think we still could win -- and will, I pray) I hope he is successful. However, I doubt his leadership. Despite his Vietnam record, this man is a whiny coward (in my view) and that concerns me -- greatly. Much.
5). If, somehow, we do not get the nod (and we may not) I beg of thee -- we must, at all costs, keep this movement alive. We ARE the...
Fiscally Responsible Progressive Wing of the Democratic Party
And yes, Kerry-Heinz, I'll consider leaving ya'll behind -- yes, an unswaying stalwart Dem like me....will do nothing more than vote for you -- you want us Dean folks to lift a finger for you? Overture, overture, again......make it good.
Overture, and sing, sing, sing. A promise or two would help.
Finally, speaking of "electability" -- Dems are having some suicidal thoughts, I guess. Dean, the Leftish Reagan Wild Card, is the ONLY one who could win (except maybe Edwards).
We must fight ever and harder and more relentlessly than ever.
Do you wanna volunteer for Kerry?
Exactly. The time is now, do what you can -- this could, be, perhaps, the only moment in our lives to Take Back America!
What can, what will, you do?
As I've stated in other posts on different topics:
NOW, FOLKS: IT-IS-TIME
We can win this, if you, YOU! -- will do all YOU can do.
Thursday, January 29, 2004
Trippi Interview http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3910275/
Joe Trippi will be interviewed by Deborah Norville tonight at 9 pm EST on MSNBC.
UPDATE (Matt): Trippi will also be on Hardball tomorrow night. It should be noted in the Governor's post on the O-Blog that he hoped Trippi will later decide to return to the campaign as a strategic advisor.
UPDATE (Matt): Elegant, classy, honest, all around wonderful. Trippi says, "I love the grassroots," he still called the movement "we," he was clearly emotional about leaving but not at all bitter. He still says he firmly believes Dean will win and that this campaign is the nation's "last chance" to get things right. I remember the nights in the early campaign when I would get personal e-mails from Joe. I was amazed how someone in his position would actually respond to my individual thoughts. He impressed me so much then; he continues to impress me now.
UPDATE (Matt): Trippi will also be on Hardball tomorrow night. It should be noted in the Governor's post on the O-Blog that he hoped Trippi will later decide to return to the campaign as a strategic advisor.
UPDATE (Matt): Elegant, classy, honest, all around wonderful. Trippi says, "I love the grassroots," he still called the movement "we," he was clearly emotional about leaving but not at all bitter. He still says he firmly believes Dean will win and that this campaign is the nation's "last chance" to get things right. I remember the nights in the early campaign when I would get personal e-mails from Joe. I was amazed how someone in his position would actually respond to my individual thoughts. He impressed me so much then; he continues to impress me now.
Open Thread: SC Debate
Go nuts...
Here's hoping for a turnaround...
Grassroots Reacts to Changes @ DFA http://www.here-now.org/shows/2004/01/20040129_2.asp
Just in case folks missed it, DN's own Anna Brosovic, along with Colorado Deaner Tony Thompson, appeared on WBUR Radio's "Here & Now" earlier today. WBUR is the flagship NPR news station in Boston.
Here's the link. (Click on the LISTEN button -- segment begins about 4:30 minutes in).
Way to get media in Kerryland, guys -- and excellent job!
Here's the link. (Click on the LISTEN button -- segment begins about 4:30 minutes in).
Way to get media in Kerryland, guys -- and excellent job!
media visibility crusade - on the cheap
Here is how Dean can immediately get exposure in the Feb 3rd states without expensive ad buys:
This should keep his visibility high in the Feb 3 round and sustain momentum into Feb 7th. After Feb 3rd, though, he needs to spend all his time in the Feb 7th states to be on the ground making his case in all the local media (including making a direct pitch to the various newspaper editorial boards asking for their endorsement).
On Feb 4th, Dean needs to attend a meetup in Ann Arbor. Make it the biggest meetup ever - let's shatter the old New York record. Hey Michigan for dean, are you listening? Bombard Burlington with invites now, you guys! Send two people to drive to campaign HQ and camp out waiting for Dean to invite him in person!
After Feb 7th, he needs to maintain his visibility:
what else? Remember he has to be on the ground between Feb 3rd and 7th in Michigan and Wisconsin. IMHO it's a waste of his time to go stumping on foot before Feb 3rd, anywhere, because voter memory is short and voter fatigue will be high. If he maintains the media visibility campaign as suggested above then he can swoop in to the Feb 7th states and capitalize on the momentum. And that leaves the time before Feb 3rd to do the other things suggested above that are more unorthodox.
And note how the laundry list above relies heavily on contacts and endorsers and netroots supporters. That is by design. More suggestions along those lines are needed.
UPDATE: added some more bullet items. Keep the ideas flowing in comments!
- get on local talk radio. His Hannity appearance was excellent, and I heard he appeared on Hannity's TV show with Colmes last night to follow up. Deliberately target conservative media - that makes Dean look unafraid to challenge the right wing and also gets him broader access. Plus what other candidate is sticking it to the wingnuts? Certainly not Mr. Front Runner.
- Target national daytime television. Someone suggested Oprah (with both Howard and Judy!), other good avenues are Rosie O'Donnell and the Wayne Brady show. Lots of undecided voters are captive audiences at home during the day, and an informal apearance can give him a chance to make an appeal based on his record of accomplishment. It's those ordinary people watching TV at home that disproportionately are feeling the pain of the Bush economy and are wondering what these Democrats are doing for them.
- Stump in South Carolina with Jesse Jackson Jr and with Al Gore. Spend a whole day there talking to local church communities. Attend a service in Sunday and give out a yell for God.
- Target Hispanic media like Unavision - there must be daytime talk shows on the Hispanic networks where Dean can appear. Is Dean fluent in Spanish? If so, hold the entire interview in that language. If not, ask someone from Latinos for Dean to appear with him on the show.
- Get on late-night television. Dean should do at two of the following shows: Saturday Night Live, Late Show with Conan O'Brien, Letterman, Leno. Avoid cable talk shows since it's a more limited market (though do take up Chris Matthews on his open invitation to Dean for HardBall)
- Run grassroots-created ads on basic cable channels - USA Network and TNT for example are cheaper to buy ads on than primetime television, and they reach as many viewers. Launch a new bat dedicated to funding this effort. Use the best ideas from Project Deanlight and Switch2Dean in their entirety without any edits or changes - just dump them on those markets.
This should keep his visibility high in the Feb 3 round and sustain momentum into Feb 7th. After Feb 3rd, though, he needs to spend all his time in the Feb 7th states to be on the ground making his case in all the local media (including making a direct pitch to the various newspaper editorial boards asking for their endorsement).
On Feb 4th, Dean needs to attend a meetup in Ann Arbor. Make it the biggest meetup ever - let's shatter the old New York record. Hey Michigan for dean, are you listening? Bombard Burlington with invites now, you guys! Send two people to drive to campaign HQ and camp out waiting for Dean to invite him in person!
After Feb 7th, he needs to maintain his visibility:
- Appear on The West Wing on NBC by having Martin Sheen throw his weight around.
- Blog interviews. Dean needs to conduct a telephone interview with Daily Kos, Liberal Oasis, Atrios, and Blogging of the President. Dean also needs to take the time to personally answer the Dean Nation Interview Questions.
- Work together with MoveOn.org to utilize the best ideas of some of the ad winners from their recent Bush in 30 Seconds contest. Gore can help make a case for this and Rob Reiner can edit the films, along with recruiting the actual producers of the home-grown submitted films themselves. Put Heath Eiden and Karl Frisch in charge!
- More late-night television - finish off the ones he didn't get to before Feb 3rd.
what else? Remember he has to be on the ground between Feb 3rd and 7th in Michigan and Wisconsin. IMHO it's a waste of his time to go stumping on foot before Feb 3rd, anywhere, because voter memory is short and voter fatigue will be high. If he maintains the media visibility campaign as suggested above then he can swoop in to the Feb 7th states and capitalize on the momentum. And that leaves the time before Feb 3rd to do the other things suggested above that are more unorthodox.
And note how the laundry list above relies heavily on contacts and endorsers and netroots supporters. That is by design. More suggestions along those lines are needed.
UPDATE: added some more bullet items. Keep the ideas flowing in comments!
get Jesse Jackson and Al Gore to South Carolina with Dean
We need to be visible in South Carolina - and Gore and Jackson need to pull their weight. We don't need to win SC, but we MUST show up. Dean is the oinly candidate with a credible claim to appeal to the black vote, but repudiating SC will send the wrong symbolic message. Discuss.
UPDATE: and of course, get Bill Bradley out there in Michigan! Where are the endorsers?!
UPDATE: and of course, get Bill Bradley out there in Michigan! Where are the endorsers?!
General McClellan
A reporter called me to ask about Trippi. It’s part of the “picking of the bones” process.
While we were talking an analogy occurred to me, from the first Civil War. (I credit Vietnam as the second.) It came in historian Shelby Foote’s praise of George McClellan, the Union General fired in 1862. “He really built that Army,” Foote said, and much of what that Army did afterward was a tribute to McClellan.
No analogy is perfect. Trippi combined much of McClellan’s organizational brilliance with the imperfections of generals who succeeded him, like Ambrose Burnside and Joe Hooker. Trippi fought, hard, but the costs exceeded results in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Dean lacks the luxury of the years Lincoln spent in finding Grant. He also needs someone with Lee’s tactical brilliance – Grant really won by grinding the opponent down through superior forces.
And what of Roy Neel? I know him best from my work on the technology beat, where he ran the US Telephone Association during the boom. Yes, he’s an insider, but we need one now. He’ll be the first to tell you he ain’t Robert E. Lee.
But this is not a time for fighting. This is a time to make a case. And the case is there to be made. John Kerry was Michael Dukakis’ Lieutenant Governor, he is Teddy Kennedy’s junior Senator, he has never run anything bigger than a Senate office, he’s a defensive politician at a time that calls for offense. He is yesterday’s man. The last really courageous thing he did was throw away his medals at a VVAW rally. The definition of insanity is to repeatedly do the same thing and expect a different result. Kerry is the same thing.
Right now Democrats need to play offense, not defense. They need an executive, not a legislator. They need someone new, not someone old, borrowed or blue. When it comes to true electability and the personal qualities the nation needs there is just no comparison. Dean was making this case last week in New Hampshire. Neel can press it.
Most of us, meanwhile, are clear on who and what we’re working for. We’re working on making Howard Dean our President, for to take this country back from the idiots now in charge of it. It’s the Union, not the General, who matters to us foot soldiers.
Your orders, General Neel?
Where we stand http://www.notgeniuses.com/archives/001618.html
Go read this (lengthy email) from a Dean supporter, to a Dean supporter, that bluntly and frankly discusses where we stand. It makes a rational and principled case for why we need to continue and persevere, without any rose-colored Kool Aid drinking whatsoever. Read it in full.
NYT on Trippi departure http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/29/politics/campaign/29DEAN.html?ex=1390712400&en=1661d9184fa00c75&ei=5007&partner=USERLAND
This is the definitive article so far on the Trippi departure, including some hints that the shakeup wasn't as smooth as it appeared beneath the surface. I'm really just posting it for completeness, but I've decided to focus forward from here.
UPDATE: well, I guess I should state my opinion on the matter. I agree with the assessment that Trippi is a brilliant tactician - but a terrible strategist. (definitions here and here). Trppi recognized the potential of the netroots, and his contribution was to let it breathe freely and grow on its own. But he never really tapped into it for ideas. The O-blog contributes nothing to strategy, unlike here at Dean Nation where all we talk about is strategy. But the only idea that they ever ran with was embracing Meetup after we promoted it. And even that embrace ultimately fizzled down to just crowing about the number registered; ask yourself - why wasn't Dean at the Iowa or NH meetup before the primaries?
If the campaign was an internet startup, then Trippi was the brilliant CEO who founded the company. But the campaign has grown far beyond that stage, and we need someone with experience on the grown-up, experienced side of the fence. I'm very pleased at the choice of Neel and I think the timing was overdue.
UPDATE: well, I guess I should state my opinion on the matter. I agree with the assessment that Trippi is a brilliant tactician - but a terrible strategist. (definitions here and here). Trppi recognized the potential of the netroots, and his contribution was to let it breathe freely and grow on its own. But he never really tapped into it for ideas. The O-blog contributes nothing to strategy, unlike here at Dean Nation where all we talk about is strategy. But the only idea that they ever ran with was embracing Meetup after we promoted it. And even that embrace ultimately fizzled down to just crowing about the number registered; ask yourself - why wasn't Dean at the Iowa or NH meetup before the primaries?
If the campaign was an internet startup, then Trippi was the brilliant CEO who founded the company. But the campaign has grown far beyond that stage, and we need someone with experience on the grown-up, experienced side of the fence. I'm very pleased at the choice of Neel and I think the timing was overdue.
Dean's Money Advantage Dwindles http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A58369-2004Jan28.html?nav=hptop_ts
The money situation is indeed tight. Still no confirmation of the $5m rumor, but it is clear that the campaign overspent in Iowa and New Hampshire. Given that we are entering a media-centered phase of the campaign, this is a bad thing. This WaPo article sheds a lot of information on how the fiscal issue affects the primary strategy for Feb 3rd and 7th:
Rivals including front-runner John F. Kerry are buying TV ads in South Carolina and other states holding primaries or caucuses Tuesday, but the former Vermont governor has chosen to forgo further advertising in this round, focusing instead on the Feb. 7 caucuses in Michigan and Washington state, campaign officials said. The decision marks a notable shift in fortunes for an innovative candidate who revolutionized fundraising via the Internet and led all Democrats in 2003 by collecting nearly $41 million.
"Clearly his decision to spend heavily in New Hampshire was at the expense of not spending in Arizona, New Mexico and South Carolina," said Evan Tracey of TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks media expenditures. "You are essentially leaving the paid media field to your opponents."
[...]
Dean, according to campaign aides, has calculated that he can remain credible by picking up enough votes to win some delegates in the Feb. 3 states, even without renewed advertising or a first-place finish.
Dean expects to run strongly in Michigan and Washington, a Dean aide said. What's more, in contrast to primary contests that require heavy spending on TV ads, caucuses involve more ground-level work, such as identifying supporters and getting them to caucus sites. Much of this work can be performed by volunteers, enabling a candidate to preserve cash.
Dean must win some contests in the next two weeks "or he'll have trouble raising money in the future," said Steve Weissman, associate director of the Campaign Finance Institute, a nonpartisan group based in Washington.
[...]
Kerry, the winner in Iowa and New Hampshire, has bought TV time in all seven Feb. 3 states. He also is enjoying the wave of free news coverage that accompanies front-runner status.
"I don't think everybody has the capacity to fight in every state," said Dean campaign chair Steve Grossman. "We are going to use our resources wisely." Dean, he said, "must win a state somewhere" by Feb. 7.
media navel-gazing http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A58426-2004Jan28_2.html
The media discovers it has the power to affect people's opinions. In other news, Diane Sawyer followed up on her "Dean aren't you really a raging lunatic? Judy, Isn't Dean a manic psycho?" interview by conducting an investigation into the Dean Rebel Yell coverage. She concludes that the coverage was unfair. I'm sure the New Hampshire voters are paying attention.
These attacks made Dean stronger. I don't hold a grudge in that sense - and I want Kerry to undergo the same trial by fire so he too becomes stronger. I only object to the media's sudden interest in meta-analysis. Drop the pretense, guys, and go for your narratives of the hour. We'll cope... and win.
These attacks made Dean stronger. I don't hold a grudge in that sense - and I want Kerry to undergo the same trial by fire so he too becomes stronger. I only object to the media's sudden interest in meta-analysis. Drop the pretense, guys, and go for your narratives of the hour. We'll cope... and win.
voters are rational actors
As I posted yesterday, it's tempting to take shots at Kerry. But drawing all the contrasts in the world between Kerry's legislative record and Dean's executive one wont change the simple fact that Kerry won Iowa and NH fair and square. Telling Democrats who have chosen Kerry that they are fools, or dittoheads is not going to help our cause.
Worse, it might damage it. The last thing we need is to re-entrench the perception of Dean as attracting idoelogical crazies and cultists who sneer down their noses at the average Joe. I'm strictly a "People are rational actors" guy.
Lets focus on telling the campaign what they should do right to draw people, not telling people what they are doing wrong to get them to switch. There are a lot of other oters out there who are uncommitted who are more fertile ground for Dean's ideas than the soft support that switched to Kerry.
Forget Kerry. Forget Trippi. Focus on Dean, and how to get this campaign back on message so it's the same one that all of reading this blog were drawn to last year.
Worse, it might damage it. The last thing we need is to re-entrench the perception of Dean as attracting idoelogical crazies and cultists who sneer down their noses at the average Joe. I'm strictly a "People are rational actors" guy.
Lets focus on telling the campaign what they should do right to draw people, not telling people what they are doing wrong to get them to switch. There are a lot of other oters out there who are uncommitted who are more fertile ground for Dean's ideas than the soft support that switched to Kerry.
Forget Kerry. Forget Trippi. Focus on Dean, and how to get this campaign back on message so it's the same one that all of reading this blog were drawn to last year.
open thread
decompress!
Wednesday, January 28, 2004
TMS Continues Ad Effort http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4089404/
MSNBC: "The ad team of McMahon and Mark Squier will remain on the campaign, but they have been told to build a broader ad team that includes creative input from Hollywood and New York specialists to produce better spots, a senior official said on condition of anonymity."
I'm not sure this is a good idea. Thoughts?
I'm not sure this is a good idea. Thoughts?
ABC News: Dean Machine Shake-Up http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/Politics/WorldNewsTonight/Dean_Campaign_Changes_040128-1.html
ABC News has an interesting story on the Trippi removal. Selections:
In an emotional meeting with members of the Burlington, Vt.-based staff this afternoon, Trippi thanked them for their hard work and vowed to continue to fight for Dean's candidacy.
Dean was in the room and acknowledged Trippi but the two did not shake hands, according to a staff member who was present.
...
Trippi ruled the campaign's organization with an iron fist, hiring political and field staffers — many of them quite young — who were loyal to him. In the process, he clashed with members of the Vermont guard loyal to Dean, like Kate O'Connor, Dean's longtime aide, and Bob Rogan, the campaign's deputy chief of staff.
...
Dean was said by several sources who are close to him to have been very upset by what happened in Iowa, and blamed Trippi's staff, in part, for being disorganized and for running poor-quality television advertisements.
Dean and Trippi also had disagreements over spending. Dean is very tight with his budgets and would often veto ideas Trippi proposed.
The relationship between Dean and Trippi has been somewhat strained in the intervening week, according to sources loyal to both Trippi and Dean.
Dean limited Trippi's role in New Hampshire, told him to return to Burlington, stay off television, and the candidate essentially transferred the campaign's executive authority to his New Hampshire state director, Karen Hicks.
...
From Dean for America...
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
January 28, 2004
Statements by Governor Howard Dean and Joe Trippi
BURLINGTON--Dean for America released the following statements tonight:
Democratic presidential candidate Governor Howard Dean, M.D., issued the following statement:
"I am deeply grateful to Joe Trippi, who has decided to leave the campaign. Joe has made enormous contributions not just to our campaign but to American politics -- revolutionizing the way in which people are brought into the democratic process and helping hundreds of thousands of people to believe in political change again.
"I am pleased to announce that Roy Neel will be relocating to Burlington to assume the position of Chief Executive Officer of the campaign effective immediately. Roy brings enormous experience both in management and national politics. He will be an invaluable resource to our campaign.
"Last night the people of New Hampshire reaffirmed that their strong support for change and for a campaign based on standing up for what is right and delivering results not rhetoric.
"This campaign is a marathon not a sprint. I am committed to carrying our campaign through the coming weeks to primaries and caucuses all across the country. We will continue to offer the Democratic Party a candidacy based on courage and conviction and a campaign based on hope, not fear.
"This campaign is about all of us. I am grateful for what we have done together so far but our work is far from done. Now we must redouble our efforts, not simply to win the nomination but to change America."
* * *
Dean for America Campaign Manager Joe Trippi released the following statement:
"Dear Friends,
"The Governor has asked Roy Neel to come in as CEO of the campaign, and I have resigned as campaign manager.
"I've always believed that the most important thing was to change our country and our politics.
"I'm proud of all of you and the work we have done together. I may be out of the campaign but I’m not out of the fight.
"Don't give up -- stay with Howard Dean's cause to change America.
"Thank you.
"Joe Trippi"
-- 30 --
Shakeup http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040128/D80C37DG1.html
MSNBC is reporting that campaign manager Joe Trippi has been reassigned. Gore's Roy Neel to take over campaign.
Developing story... Click link above for initial story. Thanks to Mike on the zonk board for the link.
UPDATE (Aziz): another link just posted with a lot more information. Here's info on Neel:
Neel, Gore's former senatorial chief of staff, served as chief executive of the U.S. Telecom Association in Washington before working on Gore's 2000 presidential campaign. Neel was named to head Gore's transition team in anticipation of the former vice president winning the White House.
sources say that Dean asked Trippi to stay on the payroll, but Trippi decided to leave. "I may be out of the campaign, but I'm not out of the fight," Trippi was quoted as saying.
UPDATE (MATT B): Here is the O-Blog posting on Neel from 1/7/2004.
audio: Dean on Sean Hannity show (1/28/04) http://abcrad.wmod.llnwd.net/a49/external/0102cABAAHQAAAAcDle6yKhvE1c0LnEJnNwFajD8QD92LOnSD/hannity/dean012704.wma
I have to say, that Dean's apearance on Hannity last night (after Kucinich, who also went on TV later that evening) was fantastic. Hannity endorsed Dean, claiming he'd be defeated against Bush, and Dean used the Reagan analogy, which was a brilliant counterstroke. Dean managed to meet Hannity on almost every point with a better answer straight from his stump speeches.
The man was made for talk radio. He needs to get out there NOW. We need him on the Chris Baker show here in Houston. weneed him on YOUR local talk radio, also - chime in and list your local conservative radio hosts wo fantasize that the are the next Hannity or Limbaugh. Let's get Dean on the shows!
The man was made for talk radio. He needs to get out there NOW. We need him on the Chris Baker show here in Houston. weneed him on YOUR local talk radio, also - chime in and list your local conservative radio hosts wo fantasize that the are the next Hannity or Limbaugh. Let's get Dean on the shows!
Dean on the Sean Hannity show
Should Dean compete for Feb 3? http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Politics/ap20040128_1138.html
This ABC article details the difference of opinion in the campaign today about strategy. Dean wants to carry on to the Feb 3 states, and his staff is against the idea, preferring to lie low (as Chris Suellentrop speculates in Slate). What do you think? open thread ...
Gored http://www.cjr.org/blog/archives/cat_distortion.asp#000063
via Campaign Desk:
Most of the questions asked in the official exit poll for the New Hampshire primary today are routine: Are you liberal or conservative, black or white, male or female, and, by the way, how did you vote?
But then out of nowhere comes this sucker punch: "Regardless of how you voted today, do you think Howard Dean has the temperament to serve effectively as president?" No other questions about specific candidates were asked.
[...]
Reading from an official statement, a harried spokesperson for the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, Fox and the AP that administered the poll, told Campaign Desk: "Dean's temperament has been much discussed throughout the campaign. He fell from a significant lead in New Hampshire. Did questions about his temperament after the Iowa speech contribute to that? The exit poll would be remiss if it didn't try to find out."
The spokeswoman stressed that because this was an exit poll, it wouldn't affect New Hampshire's results. She's wrong; the very existence of the question, first reported this afternoon by Howard Kurtz at WashingtonPost.com, could well sway late voters.
More important, what about South Carolinians, Missourians, Arizonans, and all the rest who have yet to vote? Even if few startled New Hampshire voters answer "no" to that loaded question, it seems certain to make news -- and to supply ammunition to Dean opponents.
Trippi in trouble? http://www.sevendaysvt.com/insidetrack/
An article from Seven Days VT has some pretty astonishing gossip from inside sources in Dean's campaign:
Frankly, the few ads I have seen were terrible. And I have been long incomfortable with the seeming conflict of interest in having TMS do the ads when the T was also the campaign manager. How could an objective decision get made in that scenario about the quality of the ads? This is all the more critical since we have entered the media-centric phase of the campaign.
But should Joe take the blame for the Iowa and NH losses? I don't know. Joe deserves credit for the Internet aspect of things but we all know that the campaign needs to grow beyond that - while keeping its character intact. In Iowa, the campaign did grow out into the real world, but it became something unrecognizable in the process.
Another issue that needs to be addressed is the burn rate. Yes, Dean has raised more money than anyone else - but how has it been spent? On orange hats? Trippi's strategy was always to concentrate on Iowa and NH for the win and coast to victory. And I did get the feeling that fundraising was indeed being taken almost for granted (and this is the real reason why the mailing list memberships have hit a plateau.)
Campaign staff shakeups are common to all the other campaigns - most notably front-runner Kerry. I don't know enough to have an opinion on whether Joe deserves the axe for Iowa and NH. If anything, I'm biased against it out of sheer personality admiration. But winning is more important. What do you think?
Seven Days has learned that the disaster in Hawkeye Country last week caused a major realignment of Dean for America’s campaign hierarchy. Sources tell Seven Days that Campaign Manager Joe Trippi, the colorful Internet whiz who led the longshot Vermonter’s meteoric rise, has had his own wings plucked.
Dr. Dean, sources say, has taken control of the campaign checkbook from the Trippster and handed it to Deputy Campaign Manager Bob Rogan.
Rogan once served on Dean’s gubernatorial staff, before leaving for a management job at Vermont’s largest electric utility. He came back last year for the presidential bid. Now he and longtime Dean aide Kate O’Connor are steering the Dean campaign warship. There are clear indications that if Dean limps on after New Hampshire, Joltin’ Joe Trippi will be gone.
So, too, will Trippi’s Washington, D.C., consulting firm Trippi, McMahon & Squier. Steve McMahon has been producing Howard Dean for Governor TV commercials for a decade. The spots he did for Ho-Ho in Iowa are cited by grumbling Dean supporters as a factor in Dean’s poor showing there.
Frankly, the few ads I have seen were terrible. And I have been long incomfortable with the seeming conflict of interest in having TMS do the ads when the T was also the campaign manager. How could an objective decision get made in that scenario about the quality of the ads? This is all the more critical since we have entered the media-centric phase of the campaign.
But should Joe take the blame for the Iowa and NH losses? I don't know. Joe deserves credit for the Internet aspect of things but we all know that the campaign needs to grow beyond that - while keeping its character intact. In Iowa, the campaign did grow out into the real world, but it became something unrecognizable in the process.
Another issue that needs to be addressed is the burn rate. Yes, Dean has raised more money than anyone else - but how has it been spent? On orange hats? Trippi's strategy was always to concentrate on Iowa and NH for the win and coast to victory. And I did get the feeling that fundraising was indeed being taken almost for granted (and this is the real reason why the mailing list memberships have hit a plateau.)
Campaign staff shakeups are common to all the other campaigns - most notably front-runner Kerry. I don't know enough to have an opinion on whether Joe deserves the axe for Iowa and NH. If anything, I'm biased against it out of sheer personality admiration. But winning is more important. What do you think?
forget Kerry - it's domestic policy, stupid
There's all sorts of juicy things you could sink your teeth into about Kerry - like this telling anecdote from Chris Suellentrop in Slate:
But the simple fact is that the race between Dean and Kerry is about Dean. We need to draw people to Dean first. Most of Kerry's support is relatively new, and part of the reason Dean lost support in Iowa was because he went negative. Let Clark (and Lehane) focus their fire on Kerry - but and emphasise that Dean not only knows what the X means, but he's got Jesse Jackson Jr. to vouch for it.
All those endorsements are garbage unless they are leveraged. We need simple commercials - Jesse Jackson Jr. Talking frankly about Dean and race, Gore talking frankly about Dean and Iraq - and Dean himself talking about what he has to offer, his success with Dr. Dynasaur and Success by Six. It's the domestic polcy, stupid.
Forget about Bush Lied and 16 words. Focus instead on the plight of our veterans who have to buy their own plane tickets home on leave and how their benefits are being drastically cut.
Forget about the federal deficit and talk about the raised property taxes which negate the "middle class tax cut" (say it with the sneer quotes). Mention payroll tax cuts.
Dean often talks about how Americans feel left out of the political process. He needs to start showing those people how their concerns are being addressed. It's not about Iraq or deficits or any other long-range national issues. It's about the here and now. It's about consistent job loss. It;s about corporate tax breaks as a reward for moving workers overseas. It's not about the big picture, it's about the facts on the ground.
And the voters will make the distinction between Dean and Kerry on their own, inexorably, inevitably.
Is the campaign listening anymore? I don't know. Joe Trippi hasn't left a comment on Dean Nation in many long months. The official blog remains an echo chamber of motivational speeches and dry logistical coordinating info. I don't know if they even remember we are here. But we are here, and we need to make noise, and fight to get our campaign back on track.
In Manchester, Kerry gave a touching speech about the importance of veterans and of "keeping faith with those who wore the uniform." As soon as it was over, a woman stood up and said, I'm not a veteran. What are you going to do for the average person? At a firehouse in Hampton yesterday, a man told Kerry that he thinks it's unfair that people say a New Englander can't connect with people from varying backgrounds. And to prove that you can do it, he says, explain the importance of the icon on my hat. Kerry is mystified. "The Latin? The Ten?" he asks. Malcolm X, the man explains.
But the simple fact is that the race between Dean and Kerry is about Dean. We need to draw people to Dean first. Most of Kerry's support is relatively new, and part of the reason Dean lost support in Iowa was because he went negative. Let Clark (and Lehane) focus their fire on Kerry - but and emphasise that Dean not only knows what the X means, but he's got Jesse Jackson Jr. to vouch for it.
All those endorsements are garbage unless they are leveraged. We need simple commercials - Jesse Jackson Jr. Talking frankly about Dean and race, Gore talking frankly about Dean and Iraq - and Dean himself talking about what he has to offer, his success with Dr. Dynasaur and Success by Six. It's the domestic polcy, stupid.
Forget about Bush Lied and 16 words. Focus instead on the plight of our veterans who have to buy their own plane tickets home on leave and how their benefits are being drastically cut.
Forget about the federal deficit and talk about the raised property taxes which negate the "middle class tax cut" (say it with the sneer quotes). Mention payroll tax cuts.
Dean often talks about how Americans feel left out of the political process. He needs to start showing those people how their concerns are being addressed. It's not about Iraq or deficits or any other long-range national issues. It's about the here and now. It's about consistent job loss. It;s about corporate tax breaks as a reward for moving workers overseas. It's not about the big picture, it's about the facts on the ground.
And the voters will make the distinction between Dean and Kerry on their own, inexorably, inevitably.
Is the campaign listening anymore? I don't know. Joe Trippi hasn't left a comment on Dean Nation in many long months. The official blog remains an echo chamber of motivational speeches and dry logistical coordinating info. I don't know if they even remember we are here. But we are here, and we need to make noise, and fight to get our campaign back on track.
tv ads open thread
let this one be just for your TV ideas...
Winning On Electability
Here is what killed us last night.
New Hampshire Democrats bought the idea that the Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party is, by definition, its more liberal wing, thus its least-electable wing.
Kerry beat us among moderates, and he pounded us on electability.
Over the next week we're going to get a lot of help in taking him down. The media is going to provide much of it. Kerry was Michael Dukakis' Lieutenant Governor. His voting record is more liberal than Teddy Kennedy's. He has never held executive office. Etc. etc. etc.
Wesley Clark and John Edwards are going to help us in this. They are going to direct all their fire on Kerry. This is a good thing.
Governor Dean's ads, meanwhile, are going to start sounding more like the speeches he gave last week in New Hampshire. Overtly or not, they will make the points I made here last night. We are going to run to Kerry's right, on Dean's record, and take back the moderates.
It then becomes crucial that the anti-Kerry vote not go to Clark or Edwards, and that we take the "electability" issue back as well.
That will be even easier.
Start with extravagant praise. John Edwards is a great lawyer, what we wouldn't give to see him as Attorney General instead of John Ashcroft. Wesley Clark is a great military thinker, what we wouldn't give to see him as Defense Secretary instead of Donald Rumsfeld. And Joe Lieberman, wouldn't he make a great Chief Justice when William Rehnquist retires?
But none of these men, as worthy as they are, has any more chance of being elected President in November than Al Sharpton or Dennis Kucinich.
At some point this spring, they will all run through the $45 million they are allowed to spend under the campaign laws. At that point, they will go under virtual house arrest. They will not be able to buy ads, they will not be able to travel, they won't even be able to pay their Internet bills.
That is the law. Bill Clinton used it to hammer Bob Dole in 1996. George W. Bush used it to hammer Al Gore in 2000.
Today Bush has 200 million dollars ready to shock and awe us with the largest ad campaign in political history. He will spend that money turning Edwards into a Breck Girl, Clark into Beetle Bailey, or Lieberman into the devil himself.
The only way Democrats can compete this summer is for 2 million people, or more, to match Bush's $200 million with $200 million of their own. Our campaign can do that. Theirs can't. We would be proud to serve with any one of these worthy gentlemen, but the law as written, the law we will follow through this November, gives them no hope of victory, none.
Run to the right, become the only hope, and the nomination is ours.
Then comes the hard part.
New Hampshire Democrats bought the idea that the Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party is, by definition, its more liberal wing, thus its least-electable wing.
Kerry beat us among moderates, and he pounded us on electability.
Over the next week we're going to get a lot of help in taking him down. The media is going to provide much of it. Kerry was Michael Dukakis' Lieutenant Governor. His voting record is more liberal than Teddy Kennedy's. He has never held executive office. Etc. etc. etc.
Wesley Clark and John Edwards are going to help us in this. They are going to direct all their fire on Kerry. This is a good thing.
Governor Dean's ads, meanwhile, are going to start sounding more like the speeches he gave last week in New Hampshire. Overtly or not, they will make the points I made here last night. We are going to run to Kerry's right, on Dean's record, and take back the moderates.
It then becomes crucial that the anti-Kerry vote not go to Clark or Edwards, and that we take the "electability" issue back as well.
That will be even easier.
Start with extravagant praise. John Edwards is a great lawyer, what we wouldn't give to see him as Attorney General instead of John Ashcroft. Wesley Clark is a great military thinker, what we wouldn't give to see him as Defense Secretary instead of Donald Rumsfeld. And Joe Lieberman, wouldn't he make a great Chief Justice when William Rehnquist retires?
But none of these men, as worthy as they are, has any more chance of being elected President in November than Al Sharpton or Dennis Kucinich.
At some point this spring, they will all run through the $45 million they are allowed to spend under the campaign laws. At that point, they will go under virtual house arrest. They will not be able to buy ads, they will not be able to travel, they won't even be able to pay their Internet bills.
That is the law. Bill Clinton used it to hammer Bob Dole in 1996. George W. Bush used it to hammer Al Gore in 2000.
Today Bush has 200 million dollars ready to shock and awe us with the largest ad campaign in political history. He will spend that money turning Edwards into a Breck Girl, Clark into Beetle Bailey, or Lieberman into the devil himself.
The only way Democrats can compete this summer is for 2 million people, or more, to match Bush's $200 million with $200 million of their own. Our campaign can do that. Theirs can't. We would be proud to serve with any one of these worthy gentlemen, but the law as written, the law we will follow through this November, gives them no hope of victory, none.
Run to the right, become the only hope, and the nomination is ours.
Then comes the hard part.
radio ads open thread
Let's brainstorm! what would make the perfect radio ad? tailored to which state?
The Anti-Kerry http://www.deanforamerica.com/site/TR?pg=personal&fr_id=1090&px=1179278
When I started this blog on August 30th 2002, John Kerry was the front-runner and Howard Dean was this niche candidate who attracted me by his ideas. When Dean was crowned the front-runner by the media at the close of 2003, it was by definition a peak. But the peak gets the most exposure, and the withering media barrage that Dean has faced - and survived - has strengthened the campaign. It is now Kerry's turn to face the same barrage - which he avoided all during 2002 even though he had front-runner status, and all during 2003 when he was given up on for dead. And that means we get some breathing room. We'd rather have victory, but it's never bad to be given time to re-assess.
Yesterday, a governor of a small rural state lost in New Hampshire to a Massachusetts Senator. The parallels to Clinton in 1992 are strong, but they end today. From here on out, it is Dean making his own history. Clinton lost the first ten contests and regrouped in the South. Dean can't afford to lose ten contests and his natural base is the West. We need to focus on how Dean can win, and today we must stop looking at 1992.
Dean is on familiar ground again - while seasoned analysts like Kos have written him off, I think they are unconsciously) guilty of drinking the media self-importance Kool Aid. Even if Kos is right that the media has an interest to "end this thing as quickly as possible" (I disagree - the media thrives on frontrunner-underdog narratives), it's the height of cynicism to suggest that the voters truly are irrelevant. The primary is ours, not theirs.
I see a very simple scenario ahead. Dean is the anti-Kerry. Only these two candidates have the resources to compete against Bush. Edwards and Clark have celebrity status but the media oxygen has been sucked away - they rate editorials and analysis, but very little actual coverage. Watch for E and C to start sharpening attacks on one of the front-runners and leaving the other alone - my guess is K/E and D/C form "gentlemen's alliances" which may translate to actual Veep roles after the nomination - but don't bet that any of these four will drop out until the final bell (barring some disaster such as Edwards losing badly in SC).
From here, it's a media war. Not candidates doing barbecues and high school speeches (though those will of course continue), but a classic ad blitz on radio and television. In this war, the Dean grassroots (organized through the Dean Commons) will act in parallel to the Dean Unions (especially in Wisconsin and Michigan). The opponent is the well-oiled, and highly experienced, establishment machine that Kerry inherits. Either of these are a force to be reckoned with, and we will see K and D pick up states delivered to each by reasonable, neither tight nor massive, margins. The battle will last all the way to the convention and victory is directly related to effort on the ground, precinct by precinct, state by state, delegate by delegate.
That means it is up to us. Why hasn't that bat broken $700K yet? Dean busted his arse for two years in New Hampshire. Amanda and Jason and Anna froze theirs going from house to house, street to street, door to door. What have we done? NOT ENOUGH.
Yesterday, a governor of a small rural state lost in New Hampshire to a Massachusetts Senator. The parallels to Clinton in 1992 are strong, but they end today. From here on out, it is Dean making his own history. Clinton lost the first ten contests and regrouped in the South. Dean can't afford to lose ten contests and his natural base is the West. We need to focus on how Dean can win, and today we must stop looking at 1992.
Dean is on familiar ground again - while seasoned analysts like Kos have written him off, I think they are unconsciously) guilty of drinking the media self-importance Kool Aid. Even if Kos is right that the media has an interest to "end this thing as quickly as possible" (I disagree - the media thrives on frontrunner-underdog narratives), it's the height of cynicism to suggest that the voters truly are irrelevant. The primary is ours, not theirs.
I see a very simple scenario ahead. Dean is the anti-Kerry. Only these two candidates have the resources to compete against Bush. Edwards and Clark have celebrity status but the media oxygen has been sucked away - they rate editorials and analysis, but very little actual coverage. Watch for E and C to start sharpening attacks on one of the front-runners and leaving the other alone - my guess is K/E and D/C form "gentlemen's alliances" which may translate to actual Veep roles after the nomination - but don't bet that any of these four will drop out until the final bell (barring some disaster such as Edwards losing badly in SC).
From here, it's a media war. Not candidates doing barbecues and high school speeches (though those will of course continue), but a classic ad blitz on radio and television. In this war, the Dean grassroots (organized through the Dean Commons) will act in parallel to the Dean Unions (especially in Wisconsin and Michigan). The opponent is the well-oiled, and highly experienced, establishment machine that Kerry inherits. Either of these are a force to be reckoned with, and we will see K and D pick up states delivered to each by reasonable, neither tight nor massive, margins. The battle will last all the way to the convention and victory is directly related to effort on the ground, precinct by precinct, state by state, delegate by delegate.
That means it is up to us. Why hasn't that bat broken $700K yet? Dean busted his arse for two years in New Hampshire. Amanda and Jason and Anna froze theirs going from house to house, street to street, door to door. What have we done? NOT ENOUGH.
Daily Review
How long will Dean fight on
New Hampshire Focusing on Iraq, Health Care and Economy
Howard Dean the man for the job
Dean Sees Silver Lining in Second Place
Dean 'very pleased' with New Hampshire finish
Kerry wins again
Florida could play big role in nomination
New Hampshire Focusing on Iraq, Health Care and Economy
Howard Dean the man for the job
Dean Sees Silver Lining in Second Place
Dean 'very pleased' with New Hampshire finish
Kerry wins again
Florida could play big role in nomination
Tuesday, January 27, 2004
How We Will Beat Kerry
This candidate is amazing. Howard Dean is better than us, better even than his campaign managers. He is a brilliant politician.
All week Dean has been telling us how to beat John Kerry. We haven’t been listening. Kerry won Iowa by out-organizing us, and won New Hampshire by stealing our message.
He will not win again.
Howard Dean has shown us the way, in the debates, and in his town hall meetings. We can easily run to Kerry's right, on all the key issues, not just using rhetoric, but with hard facts. It comes down to these three key points:
1. Get this, South Carolina. Dean was FOR Gulf War I. Kerry voted AGAINST. Saddam Hussein was in Kuwait, Bush I had the approval of the UN, he had the entire world on our side and John F. Kerry voted NO. Then, when Bush II had no case, Kerry voted aye, and now tries to pretend he didn't. He’s a fraud on national security.
2. Listen up, Missouri. Dean can BALANCE A BUDGET, Kerry never has. John Kerry voted FOR this record deficit, both for tax cuts and spending increases. Want to visit Canada, Australia, Europe or Japan? YOU CAN’T AFFORD IT. That’s just the first step in a rapid process of economic destruction that can only be reversed by moving to balanced budgets, as in the 1990s. Howard Dean has balanced budgets. He will balance this one. He's a grown-up.
3. Are you hearing this in Arizona? Dean can PASS his health care program. Kerry can’t. Dean’s plan is simple. Buy insurance for the neediest, sell it to the nearly-needy. No big bureaucracy, no change in your present coverage. He did it in Vermont, which is no wealthier than the average state. Kerry wants a BIG GOVERNMENT PROGRAM for health care, another HillaryCare plan that won’t pass and thus won’t solve anything.
The good news, troops, is we will have a lot of help all next week. Edwards will be in South Carolina, hammering home these same points. Clark will be in Oklahoma. Even Joe Lieberman will be saying this in Delaware.
Yes, we need some new ads, and some new literature, but these are the facts. These are just the points Dean hammered home on the stump this last week. The problem is it didn’t sink in. No candidate from Massachusetts has ever lost the New Hampshire primary, and that streak continues.
So John Kerry tonight takes his place alongside President Henry Cabot Lodge, President Edward M. Kennedy, President Michael Dukakis and President Paul Tsongas. Fine.
We have him right where we want him.
Now let’s go out, prove the case, win the marathon, then go after George W. Bush.
All week Dean has been telling us how to beat John Kerry. We haven’t been listening. Kerry won Iowa by out-organizing us, and won New Hampshire by stealing our message.
He will not win again.
Howard Dean has shown us the way, in the debates, and in his town hall meetings. We can easily run to Kerry's right, on all the key issues, not just using rhetoric, but with hard facts. It comes down to these three key points:
1. Get this, South Carolina. Dean was FOR Gulf War I. Kerry voted AGAINST. Saddam Hussein was in Kuwait, Bush I had the approval of the UN, he had the entire world on our side and John F. Kerry voted NO. Then, when Bush II had no case, Kerry voted aye, and now tries to pretend he didn't. He’s a fraud on national security.
2. Listen up, Missouri. Dean can BALANCE A BUDGET, Kerry never has. John Kerry voted FOR this record deficit, both for tax cuts and spending increases. Want to visit Canada, Australia, Europe or Japan? YOU CAN’T AFFORD IT. That’s just the first step in a rapid process of economic destruction that can only be reversed by moving to balanced budgets, as in the 1990s. Howard Dean has balanced budgets. He will balance this one. He's a grown-up.
3. Are you hearing this in Arizona? Dean can PASS his health care program. Kerry can’t. Dean’s plan is simple. Buy insurance for the neediest, sell it to the nearly-needy. No big bureaucracy, no change in your present coverage. He did it in Vermont, which is no wealthier than the average state. Kerry wants a BIG GOVERNMENT PROGRAM for health care, another HillaryCare plan that won’t pass and thus won’t solve anything.
The good news, troops, is we will have a lot of help all next week. Edwards will be in South Carolina, hammering home these same points. Clark will be in Oklahoma. Even Joe Lieberman will be saying this in Delaware.
Yes, we need some new ads, and some new literature, but these are the facts. These are just the points Dean hammered home on the stump this last week. The problem is it didn’t sink in. No candidate from Massachusetts has ever lost the New Hampshire primary, and that streak continues.
So John Kerry tonight takes his place alongside President Henry Cabot Lodge, President Edward M. Kennedy, President Michael Dukakis and President Paul Tsongas. Fine.
We have him right where we want him.
Now let’s go out, prove the case, win the marathon, then go after George W. Bush.
Do You Want to Stand Up, or Sit Down? http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/NH/index.html
Based on the early results, I'd say finishing a strong second in New Hampshire is just what the doctor ordered for Dean. The pundits predicted his collapse after Iowa, and New Hampshire voters have repudiated their predictions. While this isn't a huge victory for Dean, it puts him squarely in position with Kerry as the two major candidates in this race.
Some interesting exit polling from CNN:
29% of New Hampshire voters said that "standing up for beliefs" was their top quality in a candidate. Dean led all candidates on that score (47% to Kerry's 20%). That was the top quality voters were looking for in their candidate. Another interesting take was on the candidate "most likely to shake things up" - again Dean overwhelmingly (44% to Clark's 14% with Edwards at 13% and Kerry at 12%).
What this polling tells me is that voters are afraid. They're afraid of George Bush, and they're voting for Kerry because 60% of them think he's "most electable." For my money, a leader who "stands up for his beliefs" and "shakes things up" is exactly the candidate who is "electable."
Let's all work together for first on February 3rd!
Some interesting exit polling from CNN:
29% of New Hampshire voters said that "standing up for beliefs" was their top quality in a candidate. Dean led all candidates on that score (47% to Kerry's 20%). That was the top quality voters were looking for in their candidate. Another interesting take was on the candidate "most likely to shake things up" - again Dean overwhelmingly (44% to Clark's 14% with Edwards at 13% and Kerry at 12%).
What this polling tells me is that voters are afraid. They're afraid of George Bush, and they're voting for Kerry because 60% of them think he's "most electable." For my money, a leader who "stands up for his beliefs" and "shakes things up" is exactly the candidate who is "electable."
Let's all work together for first on February 3rd!
How We Will Beat Kerry
"A Crushing Defeat"
Chris Matthews just said that Kerry will win by double digits and it will be "a crushing defeat" for Howard Dean. Sen. Kerry addresses his supporters in a few minutes. Howard Fineman of Newsweek says that now Dean's only option is to start hitting Kerry on his record, as and insider, etc. Further, he says that what "they want on the blog" (he didn't specify Dean Nation or the O-Blog). Is it? Is there any other option?
Dean Matching Funds Challenge http://www.deanforamerica.com/site/TR?pg=personal&fr_id=1090&px=1179278
Take the Dean Nation Matching Funds Challenge - pledge to contribute one dollar per % point that Dean draws in NH!
real-time precinct results coming in http://www.thewmurchannel.com/politics/2792974/detail.html
as of 6:55 PM CST, Dean is in 2nd by 12 points, but ahead of Clark and Edwards by teh same margin. Only 8% of precincts reporting.. click and obsessively refresh!
Dean on Hannity tonight
Listen in - this should be great! Dean is scheduled to be on the show in the last hour. I think that's the 8-9pm hour CST, but correct me if I am wrong...
shamelessly stolen from the o-blog.. BTW Kucinich is on with Hannity right now and doing really a great job!
shamelessly stolen from the o-blog.. BTW Kucinich is on with Hannity right now and doing really a great job!
Open Thread: New Hampshire Primary
The polls are still open, but not for long. MSNBC is covering the primary, Lou Dobbs is surprisingly talking about securing our borders (see my rant here). But let's get the open thread started and discuss the Dean campaigns showing tonight.
Update: Polls are closed. MSNBC and CNN are both saying it's a close race according to exit polls.
Update: Fox News says exit polling is Kerry by seven points. Also reports Trippi would be greatly pleased with those numbers.
Update: CNN has projected that Sen. John Kerry has won New Hampshire.
Update: MSNBC has projected that Sen. John Kerry has won New Hampshire.
Update: Fox News has projected that Sen. John Kerry has won New Hampshire.
Update: Polls are closed. MSNBC and CNN are both saying it's a close race according to exit polls.
Update: Fox News says exit polling is Kerry by seven points. Also reports Trippi would be greatly pleased with those numbers.
Update: CNN has projected that Sen. John Kerry has won New Hampshire.
Update: MSNBC has projected that Sen. John Kerry has won New Hampshire.
Update: Fox News has projected that Sen. John Kerry has won New Hampshire.
Report from Manchester, NH
Hey everybody!
I'm here in the Manchester office where there are about 30 of us (mostly from Massachusetts for Dean) making phone calls to strong Dean-leaners, trying to get every last potential Dean voter to the polls. This place is absolutely throbbing with voices, phones ringing, and people dashing around.
About an hour ago, Tom Hughes (NH Field Director) announced that they're cautiously optimistic but we need to pull out all the stops this afternoon. He was really pumped and led the whole HQ in several rousing rounds of clapping and foot stomping. The building was shaking!!!
If you're in NH, do whatever you can in the next few hours. If you're not in NH and you can make it here, start driving now! And if you can't make it, send happy thoughts and good karma to all of us in NH! We're gonna be hoarse by tonight, I swear. Oh and pray for the snow to wait 'til 8pm when the polls close!
Remains to be seen if we'll get home to Boston tonight, what with the storm and all. We'll all be gathering at the Univ of Southern NH to watch the returns and listen to Gov. Dean once the resolts are announced, so we may be here late and by then there may be much white stuff to drive through. But we brought our pillows and blankets in case we need to crash here for the night. ;-)
GO DEAN!!!!!
I'm here in the Manchester office where there are about 30 of us (mostly from Massachusetts for Dean) making phone calls to strong Dean-leaners, trying to get every last potential Dean voter to the polls. This place is absolutely throbbing with voices, phones ringing, and people dashing around.
About an hour ago, Tom Hughes (NH Field Director) announced that they're cautiously optimistic but we need to pull out all the stops this afternoon. He was really pumped and led the whole HQ in several rousing rounds of clapping and foot stomping. The building was shaking!!!
If you're in NH, do whatever you can in the next few hours. If you're not in NH and you can make it here, start driving now! And if you can't make it, send happy thoughts and good karma to all of us in NH! We're gonna be hoarse by tonight, I swear. Oh and pray for the snow to wait 'til 8pm when the polls close!
Remains to be seen if we'll get home to Boston tonight, what with the storm and all. We'll all be gathering at the Univ of Southern NH to watch the returns and listen to Gov. Dean once the resolts are announced, so we may be here late and by then there may be much white stuff to drive through. But we brought our pillows and blankets in case we need to crash here for the night. ;-)
GO DEAN!!!!!
Half-Time Score http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/1/27/185137/760
DailyKos, who admittedly has a bias in our favor, printed some early exit polls from New Hampshire this afternoon.
Fingers crossed folks. He notes in his item (linked at the headline) that these are like half-time scores at the Super Bowl, and may mean absolutely nothing. But there are good signs from Karen Hicks' visibility operation, and the game isn't over until the final whistle.
LA Times:
Dean 34
Kerry 33
ABC News:
Kerry 37
Dean 31
If these scores hold up, we'll have enough to call it a comeback. If we eke out even a one-vote victory, we're the lead story.
One more note. Kos says MSNBC will broadcast exit poll numbers at 4 PM.
Don't. Give. Up.
Fingers crossed folks. He notes in his item (linked at the headline) that these are like half-time scores at the Super Bowl, and may mean absolutely nothing. But there are good signs from Karen Hicks' visibility operation, and the game isn't over until the final whistle.
LA Times:
Dean 34
Kerry 33
ABC News:
Kerry 37
Dean 31
If these scores hold up, we'll have enough to call it a comeback. If we eke out even a one-vote victory, we're the lead story.
One more note. Kos says MSNBC will broadcast exit poll numbers at 4 PM.
Don't. Give. Up.
fashion observations done right http://www.prospect.org/weblog/archives/2004/01/index.html#002309
There have been numerous, painful examples of fashion-critique aimed at presidential candidates. We all remember the earth-tone thing with Gore and more recently the sweater thing with Clark - it's nothing but lazy journalism and worse, it actually dilutes the importance of the political process by dragging it down to the very definition of superficiality.
Today, though, Garance Franke-Ruta does fashion analysis right. Not by inferring from the Doctors Deans' clothes what they are trying to spin, but a simple observation of who they are:
Today, though, Garance Franke-Ruta does fashion analysis right. Not by inferring from the Doctors Deans' clothes what they are trying to spin, but a simple observation of who they are:
If you've ever spent time in the medical arena you know that being a physician is something very different from being an attorney, which is what John Edwards, John Kerry, and Joe Lieberman are. Your stance to the world is simply different if you're a physician, because -- outside of a few specialties, like plastic surgery -- your power doesn't come from how you look or how you appear or even how you sound. It comes from your knowledge and the capacity to do things no one else is authorized to do in their daily lives -- to touch bodies, to demand of individuals, to prescribe courses of action -- and from the human power of interaction. You can't convince people to be healed, no matter how eloquently you speak about disease and suffering or what you wear. You have to actually do something to make a person better. You also have to do the right thing. And if you don't, the consequences can be dire and literally deadly.
The Deans today have doubtless been shaped by their profession as much as their state of residence: Judy Dean wears exam-room shoes, a pair of comfortable slip-ons with rubber wedge heels that seemed a close relative of nurse's shoes, and Howard wears penny-loafers. He's got a pair of coke-bottle-thick gold-wire-rimmed aviator style glasses he wears sometimes when he thinks the press isn't looking. He still wears a square-faced, gold-tone watch that would look perfect poking out of a white, lab-coated sleeve. She doesn't wear make-up -- not even powder -- and looks like a person who has spent years in a job where how she looked was entirely secondary to what she could do. They are doctors, not Vermont hippies, and they helps explain their anti-aesthetic aesthetic as much as anything else.
Henry Cabot Lodge http://www.politicallibrary.org/TallState/1964rep.html
Before you look at the last polls (which show Kerry pulling away), and before we see any real results (which may be quite different) a little historical perspective for y'all.
Back in 1964 the Republican Party faced a choice between fighting or accomodating. Democrats had been in power most of the previous 32 years. The only exception, Dwight Eisenhower, had come from the accomodationist or "Dewey" wing of the party, and his vice president, Richard Nixon, failed election in 1960.
But there was a new voice in the world, a Republican telling his fellow party members that they needed to stand up for themselves, unafraid, that they must have Republican principles. He even had a book, "The Conscience of a Conservative."
The man, of course, was Barry Goldwater.
Now I know I'm going to be roundly criticized for this post, because, in the end, Goldwater lost the election. But Goldwater also changed history. Goldwater took over the Republican Party for conservatism, which was the first step toward taking over the country. He was a very important figure.
Anyway, you may be interested in knowing how Goldwater did in New Hampshire.
He got stomped.
Goldwater finished in a near-tie for second with Nelson Rockefeller, at about 20% of the vote, and the winner was a "favorite son," Henry Cabot Lodge of Massachusetts. Lodge, who had been Nixon's running mate in 1960, was an accomodationist, which we'd now call a "liberal" Republican. He was cagey, had made a career of working at the feet of rampant Democracy, and he represented the fear that a full-throated roar on behalf of principle would not work.
In the end, remember, Lodge was wrong. In the end, Goldwater won the nomination. Yes, he failed at the election, but he turned his party, and he turned history.
I said this six months ago. If that's the worst you can say of Howard Dean, and I think it is, then he is a major, vital, important figure in our time, and his cause is worth fighting for.
Daily Review
Hardball interview: Howard and Judy Dean
The Misunderstanding of Judy Dean
Democrats fire shots in final New Hampshire push
Six signs to watch in New Hampshire vote
Congressman visits Blacksburg to gain support for Dean
The Misunderstanding of Judy Dean
Democrats fire shots in final New Hampshire push
Six signs to watch in New Hampshire vote
Congressman visits Blacksburg to gain support for Dean
Monday, January 26, 2004
Open Thread: The Daily Show
Gov. Dean sat down with the Daily Show's John Stewart. Not the funniest sketch that TDS has ever done, but I think it did show Dean as somebody who is willing to joke around and have fun. Couple this with his earlier interview with Dr. Judy Dean on Hardball, and I think he's had a good media day. If Zogby is right and NH is watching... who knows?
The Only Thing We Have To Fear http://www.hpol.org/fdr/inaug/
For over a week the Dean campaign has done everything right.
The rallies have been huge. The candidate has been wonderful. He won the debate by going consistently to the opponent's right, in a state that lets independents and Republicans vote in the primary. The press has begun ganging up on the other guy for a change. The polls have been moving. The field organization is first-rate. We have all the late momentum.
But I am also prepared for the possibility we may lose tomorrow, to John Kerry.
Two sets of numbers concern me. First, over half those surveyed think John Kerry can beat Bush. Second, a Newsweek poll actually shows Kerry beating Bush.
Many Democrats would sell their souls to beat Bush. And, in New Hampshire, many may be about to.
Because I have a better chance of beating George W. Bush than John Kerry has. We have seen this movie before. Kerry was Michael Dukakis' Lieutenant-Governor. As a Senator, Kerry has usually been in the minority.
Kerry has spent his entire public life on the defensive, and it shows. He's cagey. He voted for the war, not because he thought it was right, but because he figured he could spin it, as he has. He voted for No Child Left Behind. When Bush has bullied, Kerry has retreated, like a good lieutenant before a superior foe. Then he has told voters that, no, that wasn't a retreat, it was a "strategic withdrawal," a "reconnaissance in force."
Governor Dean, on the other hand, has been a political general. Yes, it was a small state. Yes, most were modest battles. But he won them, even the tough ones. And he made life better.
So Dean's not the trouble. The "I Have A Scream" speech isn't the trouble. The trouble is this whole concept of "the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party." (Polls show liberals are with us, moderates with the more-liberal Kerry.)
I believe in the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party. We can't hope to win, as Democrats, until we're proud to stand as Democrats again. We can't win, as Democrats, until we act like Democrats again, until we stand fast again, until we refuse to retreat again, until we are ready to attack and win again.
John Kerry won't do that. His public career shows no examples of the personal courage he displayed in Vietnam, or in the anti-war movement.
But when you've been beat like a dog long enough, as Democrats have, your courage can fail you.
Franklin Roosevelt was right. What we really have to fear, tomorrow, from our fellow Democrats, is fear itself.
The rallies have been huge. The candidate has been wonderful. He won the debate by going consistently to the opponent's right, in a state that lets independents and Republicans vote in the primary. The press has begun ganging up on the other guy for a change. The polls have been moving. The field organization is first-rate. We have all the late momentum.
But I am also prepared for the possibility we may lose tomorrow, to John Kerry.
Two sets of numbers concern me. First, over half those surveyed think John Kerry can beat Bush. Second, a Newsweek poll actually shows Kerry beating Bush.
Many Democrats would sell their souls to beat Bush. And, in New Hampshire, many may be about to.
Because I have a better chance of beating George W. Bush than John Kerry has. We have seen this movie before. Kerry was Michael Dukakis' Lieutenant-Governor. As a Senator, Kerry has usually been in the minority.
Kerry has spent his entire public life on the defensive, and it shows. He's cagey. He voted for the war, not because he thought it was right, but because he figured he could spin it, as he has. He voted for No Child Left Behind. When Bush has bullied, Kerry has retreated, like a good lieutenant before a superior foe. Then he has told voters that, no, that wasn't a retreat, it was a "strategic withdrawal," a "reconnaissance in force."
Governor Dean, on the other hand, has been a political general. Yes, it was a small state. Yes, most were modest battles. But he won them, even the tough ones. And he made life better.
So Dean's not the trouble. The "I Have A Scream" speech isn't the trouble. The trouble is this whole concept of "the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party." (Polls show liberals are with us, moderates with the more-liberal Kerry.)
I believe in the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party. We can't hope to win, as Democrats, until we're proud to stand as Democrats again. We can't win, as Democrats, until we act like Democrats again, until we stand fast again, until we refuse to retreat again, until we are ready to attack and win again.
John Kerry won't do that. His public career shows no examples of the personal courage he displayed in Vietnam, or in the anti-war movement.
But when you've been beat like a dog long enough, as Democrats have, your courage can fail you.
Franklin Roosevelt was right. What we really have to fear, tomorrow, from our fellow Democrats, is fear itself.
media navel-gazing http://www.msnbc.msn.com/Default.aspx?id=4064624&p1=0
I am here to defend the media. Why? Because this "article" by Howard Mortmann, at MSNBC.com, does the media a disservice by claiming to be a part of it. In fact, Howard Mortman is a regular contributor to NRO, and stated on NPR that Enron didn't qualify as a political scandal. The article linked above is a collection of blogger quotes, without any reference to where the quotes came from or any links. I am going to give Howard Mortmann the benefit of the doubt and assume that every unnattributed quote is accurate, because I don't see any reason to think he is a liar. But a column saying that bloggers are biased from, well, Howard Mortman is at least deliciously ironic enough that it becomes a good story. It's a familiar modus operandi for Howard Mortmann, though. I wonder when he gets around to doing a similar expose on what the folks at Free Republic say?
But there is a real media bias, as opposed to political-opinion-writer-masquerading-as-real-journalist bias. And you can find no better rigorous documentation of that bias by consulting one of the finest new blogs on the web - the Campaign Desk from the Columbia School of Journalism. The blog is fantastic (and doesn't spare the Dean campaign or any other - keeping us a bit honest too). One of the recurring topics is "Spin Buster", which documents exactly how the media feeds on itself. Their systematic dissection of how Dean's Rebel Yell became the Angry Dean meme is essential reading in understanding how reporters end up writing pieces "devoted solely to the storyline that they have helped to create."
Keep the CJR blog on your reading list - and you'll learn what media bias really is.
But there is a real media bias, as opposed to political-opinion-writer-masquerading-as-real-journalist bias. And you can find no better rigorous documentation of that bias by consulting one of the finest new blogs on the web - the Campaign Desk from the Columbia School of Journalism. The blog is fantastic (and doesn't spare the Dean campaign or any other - keeping us a bit honest too). One of the recurring topics is "Spin Buster", which documents exactly how the media feeds on itself. Their systematic dissection of how Dean's Rebel Yell became the Angry Dean meme is essential reading in understanding how reporters end up writing pieces "devoted solely to the storyline that they have helped to create."
Keep the CJR blog on your reading list - and you'll learn what media bias really is.
Greetings from New Hampshire
Hey everybody.
I've had no time to post for days now. Frankly, I'm still recovering from Iowa. But this is my third day in NH and I just wanted to chime in with my two cents.
First, allow me to say a big 'ol WORD to Anna's post below about why we lost in Iowa. Our precinct captins not being experienced and well-trained and ready to play hardball and way too young -- this was the weakest link. Period. Lots of other factors -- most notably the toolish media -- but the precinct captains would be at the top of my Top Ten List of Reasons Dean Lost Iowa. Live and learn, eh?
That said, Karen Hicks runs a much different and much tighter ship here. I have several friends who work in Manchester HQ and they rave about her. This gives me great hope.
I've been to several events up here over the past few days. Had the privelege of seeing Howard and Judy at the "Women for Dean" event the other day. If you haven't seen the video of the event, please do. It's available at C-SPAN, I believe. I'd post the link but I have only a few moments to post. :-)
Anyway, Dean was just fabulous at this forum on women's issues. Judy was great, too. They both came by the overflow room prior to the main event. I happened to be in the front row of the overflow crowd so I got to shake both their hands and get some good pics. As he was exiting, a group of African-American teens from Chicago sang their Dean rap song for the Drs. Dean. It was so great -- they had led the whole room singing it a few times as we were waiting. Here's how it went (my memory isn't perfect):
I'm a Deanocrat
Yeah Yeah
I'm a Deanocrat
Yeah Yeah
It's not about where we've been
It's about where we're goin'
Where are we goin'?
To DC, baby!
To DC, baby!
Needless to say, the Deans loved it. A great moment.
This morning, I was at a town hall event where Howard and Judy both spoke...preceded by Martin Sheen. This was a highlight -- our MA group just missed Martin in Iowa and we were quite bummed. He did not dissapoint. He compared Dean to Bobby Kennedy -- a comparison I wholeheartedly endorse. Dean did very well, altho it was a more subdued crowd so there was a tad less energy for him to feed off and he seemed tired. There were also several incredibly rude and loud LaRouche hecklers who, god willing, will not be the focus of much media coverage. They were yelling and screaming about how Dean is the only Dem candidate who's never criticised Dick Cheney (LOL) and that Dean is hence a lier, etc. Typical loony ravings. Dean was quite patient with them, saying he respected their freedom of speech and they should do the same and let the woman in the audience who was waiting to ask a question do so. When they wouldn't shut up, he asked his staff and the security folks to please remove the hecklers. The crowd was totally cheering him on.
Oh another tidbit. Some of us from MA have been trying to get the media to pay attention to the fact that (1) John Kerry does not have much popular support in his home state; he is not loved a la Ted Kennedy; his constituent service stinks and everyone knows it; his legislative record is mediocre at best; his vote on Gulf War 2 pissed off a ton of his constituents etc. and (2) Dean has enormous support in MA. We've been trying to get press coverage here in NH for several elected officials who've endorsed Dean. There was a good article in yesterday's NY Times on the subject -- check it out.
Anyway, at the Dean-Sheen-Dean event today (hee), who should sit down next to me and ask if I'm an undecided NH voter or a Dean supporter? Gloria Borger. So I bent her ear on the Kerry-not-popular-in-MA-but-Dean-very-popular-in-MA angle. She was polite but probably won't follow up. Ah well, will keep trying.
Lots to do, must get a move on. Onward!
I've had no time to post for days now. Frankly, I'm still recovering from Iowa. But this is my third day in NH and I just wanted to chime in with my two cents.
First, allow me to say a big 'ol WORD to Anna's post below about why we lost in Iowa. Our precinct captins not being experienced and well-trained and ready to play hardball and way too young -- this was the weakest link. Period. Lots of other factors -- most notably the toolish media -- but the precinct captains would be at the top of my Top Ten List of Reasons Dean Lost Iowa. Live and learn, eh?
That said, Karen Hicks runs a much different and much tighter ship here. I have several friends who work in Manchester HQ and they rave about her. This gives me great hope.
I've been to several events up here over the past few days. Had the privelege of seeing Howard and Judy at the "Women for Dean" event the other day. If you haven't seen the video of the event, please do. It's available at C-SPAN, I believe. I'd post the link but I have only a few moments to post. :-)
Anyway, Dean was just fabulous at this forum on women's issues. Judy was great, too. They both came by the overflow room prior to the main event. I happened to be in the front row of the overflow crowd so I got to shake both their hands and get some good pics. As he was exiting, a group of African-American teens from Chicago sang their Dean rap song for the Drs. Dean. It was so great -- they had led the whole room singing it a few times as we were waiting. Here's how it went (my memory isn't perfect):
I'm a Deanocrat
Yeah Yeah
I'm a Deanocrat
Yeah Yeah
It's not about where we've been
It's about where we're goin'
Where are we goin'?
To DC, baby!
To DC, baby!
Needless to say, the Deans loved it. A great moment.
This morning, I was at a town hall event where Howard and Judy both spoke...preceded by Martin Sheen. This was a highlight -- our MA group just missed Martin in Iowa and we were quite bummed. He did not dissapoint. He compared Dean to Bobby Kennedy -- a comparison I wholeheartedly endorse. Dean did very well, altho it was a more subdued crowd so there was a tad less energy for him to feed off and he seemed tired. There were also several incredibly rude and loud LaRouche hecklers who, god willing, will not be the focus of much media coverage. They were yelling and screaming about how Dean is the only Dem candidate who's never criticised Dick Cheney (LOL) and that Dean is hence a lier, etc. Typical loony ravings. Dean was quite patient with them, saying he respected their freedom of speech and they should do the same and let the woman in the audience who was waiting to ask a question do so. When they wouldn't shut up, he asked his staff and the security folks to please remove the hecklers. The crowd was totally cheering him on.
Oh another tidbit. Some of us from MA have been trying to get the media to pay attention to the fact that (1) John Kerry does not have much popular support in his home state; he is not loved a la Ted Kennedy; his constituent service stinks and everyone knows it; his legislative record is mediocre at best; his vote on Gulf War 2 pissed off a ton of his constituents etc. and (2) Dean has enormous support in MA. We've been trying to get press coverage here in NH for several elected officials who've endorsed Dean. There was a good article in yesterday's NY Times on the subject -- check it out.
Anyway, at the Dean-Sheen-Dean event today (hee), who should sit down next to me and ask if I'm an undecided NH voter or a Dean supporter? Gloria Borger. So I bent her ear on the Kerry-not-popular-in-MA-but-Dean-very-popular-in-MA angle. She was polite but probably won't follow up. Ah well, will keep trying.
Lots to do, must get a move on. Onward!
Points South http://www.pointswest.blogspot.com/
Well, Trammell has arrived in Los Angeles, California! The move is complete and I'm unpacked and settled in. How ya doing Dean Nation? Sorry I haven't been more communicative. Boy have a missed blogging a bunch with all the recent goings-on in Iowa and New Hampshire!!! So, just a quick note and you'll likely see a post or two from me in the next day or so.
Cheers and say hi, - Trammell
Cheers and say hi, - Trammell
Why The Polls Are Wrong
Math time, boys and girls!
Here's what the pollsters and the news media won't tell you. Here's why the polls are wrong.
Get out your statistics textbooks. Let's turn to the section on "total universe." The larger the market, the more accurately you can forecast its behavior, because the easier it is to get a representative sample.
In a national election, the total universe is over 100 million, so it's relatively easy to get a representative sample.
In a New Hampshire primary, the total universe may be 100-150,000. We don't know. Not only that, but because the total potential universe is small, it's very hard (nearly impossible) to draw a representative sample from it. All the "tricks" pollsters use to even out differences among samples, which work well with a big universe, skew the results further with a small universe.
In a national election, where 100 million vote, you need to change 1 million minds to get a 1% movement in the polls. In a New Hampshire primary, you need a change of 1,000 minds. You can get the same impact by changing the contents of the sample, by changing who actually turns out.
So there is no way for the polls to be right in New Hampshire, and frankly, they never are. They are nearly always wrong. Last time, in the Republican primary, polls taken the day before the election showed Bush up 4% on John McCain. He lost by 17%.
What does this mean? First, momentum is important, and right now it appears Dean has it. Second, Get Out The Vote (GOTV) activities mean everything. You've got to get out all the voters you can. Then you hope for the best.
Fingers crossed.
Here's what the pollsters and the news media won't tell you. Here's why the polls are wrong.
Get out your statistics textbooks. Let's turn to the section on "total universe." The larger the market, the more accurately you can forecast its behavior, because the easier it is to get a representative sample.
In a national election, the total universe is over 100 million, so it's relatively easy to get a representative sample.
In a New Hampshire primary, the total universe may be 100-150,000. We don't know. Not only that, but because the total potential universe is small, it's very hard (nearly impossible) to draw a representative sample from it. All the "tricks" pollsters use to even out differences among samples, which work well with a big universe, skew the results further with a small universe.
In a national election, where 100 million vote, you need to change 1 million minds to get a 1% movement in the polls. In a New Hampshire primary, you need a change of 1,000 minds. You can get the same impact by changing the contents of the sample, by changing who actually turns out.
So there is no way for the polls to be right in New Hampshire, and frankly, they never are. They are nearly always wrong. Last time, in the Republican primary, polls taken the day before the election showed Bush up 4% on John McCain. He lost by 17%.
What does this mean? First, momentum is important, and right now it appears Dean has it. Second, Get Out The Vote (GOTV) activities mean everything. You've got to get out all the voters you can. Then you hope for the best.
Fingers crossed.
open thread
This is it! BTW< rumor has it that Dean will be on the Daily Show tonight. can anyone confirm?
dead Iraqis and dirty tricks http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2004/01/26/dean_decries_iraq_war_in_return_to_strategy/
the full quote from Dean in New Hampshire:
(emphasis mine). Kudos to Dean for actually talking about dead Iraqis (the one topic that left and right seem to gloss over in the debate about the cost of Iraqi freedom). However, watch for Holy Joe Lieberman, Senator War Hero Kerry, and possibly Edwards in print handouts to ground personnel to spin this as "Dean says Iraqis are worse off after Saddam!" without mentioning that he was explicitly talking about dead Iraqis. Infamous AP writer Nedra Pickler already "fails to mention" that fact in her dishonest headline.
It also seems that someone is calling New Hampshire families at 4am with recorded messages claiming to be from the Dean camp. The NH HQ for the Dean campaign quickly issued a statement:
What links these issues is the way in which a major target remains painted on Dean's back, despite all talk of Clark and Kerry needing to focus their guns on each other. Clark might well lose to Edwards for third place, and the other campaigns stil see Dean as a major threat - they fear the bat.
Now, it's too early to tell whether the other campaigns will run with the dead Iraqi quote, since not even Newsmax or Drudge have gotten around to it yet. Maybe the campaigns will remain above the fray. And I personally doubt that any of the campaigns are directly involved in the phone scamming, though whoever is responsible is probably someone senior enough to have access to the resources necessary for the stunt. Only Kerry has really gone explicitly negative. I think we are seeing a ground war fought by extremists within the Kerry camp and also by RNC strategists in sync (but not in collusion) out of Deanfear.
Still, we know that these smear campaigns do work. So, follow the directive of President Bartlett - today is Howard Dean Day in the Granite State. Show your suport by feeding the Comeback Bat and let's root for our team freezing their butts off in NH! Show Jason and all the other volunteers that you're with them in spirit - feed the bat!
You can say that it's great that Saddam [Hussein] is gone, and I'm sure that a lot of Iraqis feel it is great that Saddam is gone, but a lot of them gave their lives, and their living standard is a whole lot worse now than it was before."
(emphasis mine). Kudos to Dean for actually talking about dead Iraqis (the one topic that left and right seem to gloss over in the debate about the cost of Iraqi freedom). However, watch for Holy Joe Lieberman, Senator War Hero Kerry, and possibly Edwards in print handouts to ground personnel to spin this as "Dean says Iraqis are worse off after Saddam!" without mentioning that he was explicitly talking about dead Iraqis. Infamous AP writer Nedra Pickler already "fails to mention" that fact in her dishonest headline.
It also seems that someone is calling New Hampshire families at 4am with recorded messages claiming to be from the Dean camp. The NH HQ for the Dean campaign quickly issued a statement:
Statement from State Director Karen Hicks
Posted by Timothy Jones
on Sun, 01/25/2004, 12:50 pm
Today, Karen Hicks, Dean For America's New Hampshire State Director, made the following statement:
"In recent days, our campaign has been hearing reports from New Hampshire voters that they are receiving:
* phone calls early in the morning and late at night;
* "robo calls" from soulless machines, not calls from considerate people;
* calls claiming to originate from the Dean campaign, but do not;
* and even harassing calls and bigoted messages.
Let me be very clear. The Dean campaign does not call New Hampshire homes before 8:30 am or after 8:30 pm. Our calls are made by respectful people, not droning machines. Our callers tell the truth.
We call on the other campaigns to make the same commitments.
We are grateful for the extraordinary engagement of New Hampshire's people in this race. But our campaign believes that everyone deserves some peace, some respect, and a truthful message."
What links these issues is the way in which a major target remains painted on Dean's back, despite all talk of Clark and Kerry needing to focus their guns on each other. Clark might well lose to Edwards for third place, and the other campaigns stil see Dean as a major threat - they fear the bat.
Now, it's too early to tell whether the other campaigns will run with the dead Iraqi quote, since not even Newsmax or Drudge have gotten around to it yet. Maybe the campaigns will remain above the fray. And I personally doubt that any of the campaigns are directly involved in the phone scamming, though whoever is responsible is probably someone senior enough to have access to the resources necessary for the stunt. Only Kerry has really gone explicitly negative. I think we are seeing a ground war fought by extremists within the Kerry camp and also by RNC strategists in sync (but not in collusion) out of Deanfear.
Still, we know that these smear campaigns do work. So, follow the directive of President Bartlett - today is Howard Dean Day in the Granite State. Show your suport by feeding the Comeback Bat and let's root for our team freezing their butts off in NH! Show Jason and all the other volunteers that you're with them in spirit - feed the bat!
Yes, We Have A Chance http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4060197/
Given up for dead in New Hampshire just a few days ago, the Dean campaign has roared back into a statistical dead heat with that of John Kerry, according to the latest MSNBC/Zogby tracking poll.
That poll had Kerry ahead 28-25, but that is within the poll's margin of error. Dean has gained 7 points in the Zogby poll in two days.
We've done this by staying positive, allowing Kerry to go negative, on both Clark and on us. This is precisely the mistake we made in Iowa, focusing only on Gephardt, going negative on Gephardt, while Kerry and Edwards stood above the fray.
The key to the next 24 hours is to keep the pressure on. Keep talking to people. Accept "no" if that's the answer. We can win if we get the votes of independents, so find them and make sure you can get ours to the polls.
It's all going to be about GOTV (get out the vote) tomorrow, with snow expected and temperatures under 10 degrees. Zogby has Dean leading in New Hampshire's Second Congressional District, but that's where the distances to the polling places are greatest. He also has us leading among voters under 30, which are also those least likely to vote.
There's an old football saying called "Finish The Drill." By that they mean work right through the tape to the finish line, because it's the team that finishes strong, with energy left in the last minutes of the fourth quarter, that wins the game.
Finish The Drill, Deaniacs. Or take it in another context, that of the great New England poet Robert Frost:
The woods are lovely, dark and deep,
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep.
That poll had Kerry ahead 28-25, but that is within the poll's margin of error. Dean has gained 7 points in the Zogby poll in two days.
We've done this by staying positive, allowing Kerry to go negative, on both Clark and on us. This is precisely the mistake we made in Iowa, focusing only on Gephardt, going negative on Gephardt, while Kerry and Edwards stood above the fray.
The key to the next 24 hours is to keep the pressure on. Keep talking to people. Accept "no" if that's the answer. We can win if we get the votes of independents, so find them and make sure you can get ours to the polls.
It's all going to be about GOTV (get out the vote) tomorrow, with snow expected and temperatures under 10 degrees. Zogby has Dean leading in New Hampshire's Second Congressional District, but that's where the distances to the polling places are greatest. He also has us leading among voters under 30, which are also those least likely to vote.
There's an old football saying called "Finish The Drill." By that they mean work right through the tape to the finish line, because it's the team that finishes strong, with energy left in the last minutes of the fourth quarter, that wins the game.
Finish The Drill, Deaniacs. Or take it in another context, that of the great New England poet Robert Frost:
The woods are lovely, dark and deep,
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep.
Sunday, January 25, 2004
Dean and Bin Laden http://www.tnr.com/blog/campaignjournal?pid=1242
I see from this Kerry attack mailing that they are using Dean's comments on trying Osama Bin Laden. Not to put too fine a point on it, bit if the Israelis can try Adolf Eichmann, surely we can try Bin Laden. In some places, people clamor for trials of those who have wronged them. Perhaps Americans have grown so complacent in our prosperity that we've lost track of the things that make us truly great. Fortunately there's at least one candidate in the race who understands, and is level-headed enough to keep them foremost in his mind.
That is all.
That is all.
Sunday in New Hampshire
First, computer time is a rare commodity here in the New Hampshire state Dean for America office. My apologies for the abrupt ending yesterday and in advance today.
Today was in almost every way an ideal day. All day, positivity and optimism surrounded me. Dr. Dean himself said that tracking polls were definitely going in the right direction and that we were the only campaign moving at all.
I started the day in a much better state, after having hung out with several other volunteers and slept in an actual bed. This morning, I was lucky enough to see a town hall meeting conducted by the Doctors Dean at SNHU, which you should watch if you can (it was taped by C-SPAN). The place was packed -- I arrived 15 minutes before it was scheduled to start, and the overflow room was overflowing. Before the Deans spoke, they actually came out to the overflow room first for a quick introduction (which was an extremely thoughtful gesture to the folks in that room). After a fine introduction by Judy in the main room, Howard proceeded by, simply, inspiring. He was presidential, but he was also real. You should watch the speech if you can; it was taped by C-SPAN. I can't do it justice here.
After the town hall meeting, I went back to the off-site volunteer office and canvassed with an interesting guy from D.C. named Micheal (sic). We went to probably 25 doors before it got dark, dropped off tapes of the Diane Sawyer interview, and talked to about 10 people -- several of whom were strong Dean supporters. Afterwards, I came back to the state office and did some voter ID calls, inviting people to events.
They need me to unload videos from a van... more later.
Today was in almost every way an ideal day. All day, positivity and optimism surrounded me. Dr. Dean himself said that tracking polls were definitely going in the right direction and that we were the only campaign moving at all.
I started the day in a much better state, after having hung out with several other volunteers and slept in an actual bed. This morning, I was lucky enough to see a town hall meeting conducted by the Doctors Dean at SNHU, which you should watch if you can (it was taped by C-SPAN). The place was packed -- I arrived 15 minutes before it was scheduled to start, and the overflow room was overflowing. Before the Deans spoke, they actually came out to the overflow room first for a quick introduction (which was an extremely thoughtful gesture to the folks in that room). After a fine introduction by Judy in the main room, Howard proceeded by, simply, inspiring. He was presidential, but he was also real. You should watch the speech if you can; it was taped by C-SPAN. I can't do it justice here.
After the town hall meeting, I went back to the off-site volunteer office and canvassed with an interesting guy from D.C. named Micheal (sic). We went to probably 25 doors before it got dark, dropped off tapes of the Diane Sawyer interview, and talked to about 10 people -- several of whom were strong Dean supporters. Afterwards, I came back to the state office and did some voter ID calls, inviting people to events.
They need me to unload videos from a van... more later.
Time’s Arrow Points To You
I saw something yesterday, on the streets of my home town, that chilled me to my bones.
It was an old VW bug, painted pink, with a pig’s snout and ears welded to the hood. On the side was painted “Pink Floyd,” with the logo from their “Dark Side of the Moon” on it, the triangular crystal refracting a rainbow. No big deal, until I looked at the driver. His hair was white, and his white beard hung down to his chest. He wasn’t the owner’s father. He was the car’s builder.
Here in the middle of life, or a campaign, we can easily forget Time’s Arrow, or where it points for all of us. But figure the driver for 60. He was 30 when he made that car.
Then look around at this election. John Kerry defines himself as a Vietnam Veteran, Wesley Cl
It was an old VW bug, painted pink, with a pig’s snout and ears welded to the hood. On the side was painted “Pink Floyd,” with the logo from their “Dark Side of the Moon” on it, the triangular crystal refracting a rainbow. No big deal, until I looked at the driver. His hair was white, and his white beard hung down to his chest. He wasn’t the owner’s father. He was the car’s builder.
Here in the middle of life, or a campaign, we can easily forget Time’s Arrow, or where it points for all of us. But figure the driver for 60. He was 30 when he made that car.
Then look around at this election. John Kerry defines himself as a Vietnam Veteran, Wesley Cl