Tuesday, February 03, 2004
It's a nail-biter in New Mexico http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/states/NM/
Check out the numbers so far from New Mexico! Dean and Kerry are tied for 27%, Clark close behind with 25%, Edwards trailing distant 4th with 9%. Numbers as of 9:57 PM ET, but the votes are still being tallied...
UPDATE: Kerry pulled ahead by a respectable margin, and Clark eked out ahead of Dean to grab second. Still, Dean is above the delegate threshold. Remember that the pundits were calling Dean toast, yet he was still able to compete hard in New Mexico, despite no media presence.
UPDATE: Kerry pulled ahead by a respectable margin, and Clark eked out ahead of Dean to grab second. Still, Dean is above the delegate threshold. Remember that the pundits were calling Dean toast, yet he was still able to compete hard in New Mexico, despite no media presence.
Judy, Judy, Judy http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20040216&s=pollitt
I've been a longtime fan of Nation-columnist Katha Pollitt but this recent column about Dr. Judith Steinberg Dean -- helpfully and humorously titled "Judy, Judy, Judy" (remind anyone else of John Kerry muttering "Dean, Dean, Dean" or is it just me?) -- is absolutely a must read. And the good doctors make the cover of the magazine, no less. It's like Howard and Judy go to the zoo. How fitting. :-)
Best line in the article (okay, that's saying something):
OUCH. HEH.
Oh ok, one more:
Indeed.
Best line in the article (okay, that's saying something):
"The doctors Dean seem to be in need of some tips on togetherness and building a healthy political marriage," opined Maureen Dowd, a single woman who, even if she weds tomorrow, will be in a nursing home by the time she's been married for twenty-three years like the Deans.
OUCH. HEH.
Oh ok, one more:
What if the media tried on for size the notion that having an independent wife says something good about a candidate? For example, maybe, if his wife is not at his beck and call, he won't assume the sun rises because he wants to get up; maybe, if his wife has her own goals in life, her own path to tread, he won't think women were put on earth to further his ambitions; maybe, if he and his wife are true partners -- which is not the same as her pouring herself into his career and his being genuinely grateful, the best-case scenario of the traditional political marriage -- he may even see women as equals.
Indeed.
February 3, 2004 Vote Open Thread
Edwards has won SC. Trippi is on MSNBC and Roy Neel is speaking right now...
...go nuts...
...go nuts...
the Prize http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4147124/
You know, I feel pretty good tonight. I'm well aware that Dean is likely to be below the delegate threshold tonight in most of the states. But we have to have faith in ourselves. Right now there are thousands of Dean supporters out there working hard on visibility and outreach. And Dean is out there too, talking to ordinary people and getting his message out.
The main goal here is to build momentum, which can crest on Feb 7th. And then onwards to Feb 10th.
If the campaign falters, though, it won't be because we didn't try. I remain disappointed that Dean probably won't be at the Ann Arbor meetup, that he hasn't publicly leveraged his endorsements from Gore and Jesse Jackson Jr. yet. I am disappointed that Dean didn't seem to recognize the symbolic importance of South Carolina, or that Roy Neel hasn't said anything about Tennessee or Virginia yet. All these things are failures of motivation from the campaign - not us. But campaigns are large and massive entities that even the candidate himself doesn't really control so much as be tolerated by, like a wormrider from Dune.
At the end of the day today, Dean will have energized us. We remain convinced that he is the best candidate for the nomination, and we are acting on that belief. Some of us are on the ground, others are blogging, all of us have thrown in money at our bat time and time again - have you noticed we are almost at $40,000?
I feel good. This is February 3rd and the election is nine months away. Nine months is enough for a political gestation of sorts. We, Dean Nation and the 700k strong supporters of Dean are the embryonic seed of a new political movement. Dean may be at the apex of this new form of political life, but ultimately it is we who are the flesh and blood.
Stop looking at polls, Dean Nation. Stop looking at primaries! Start looking at the election, and at the energy that we have marshaled to get to where we are today. And reflect on this: we have only just begun to fight!
I'm feeding the bat tonight. Join me and let's make news tomorrow - Dean may not win delegates, but he is winning hearts and minds. And my dollars.
UPDATE: Joe Lieberman will likely withdraw if he doesn't win Delaware tonight. If that doesn't cheer you up, what will? :)
UPDATE 2: Superdelegates stand firm - and Al Gore is out there below the radar, where it counts!
The main goal here is to build momentum, which can crest on Feb 7th. And then onwards to Feb 10th.
If the campaign falters, though, it won't be because we didn't try. I remain disappointed that Dean probably won't be at the Ann Arbor meetup, that he hasn't publicly leveraged his endorsements from Gore and Jesse Jackson Jr. yet. I am disappointed that Dean didn't seem to recognize the symbolic importance of South Carolina, or that Roy Neel hasn't said anything about Tennessee or Virginia yet. All these things are failures of motivation from the campaign - not us. But campaigns are large and massive entities that even the candidate himself doesn't really control so much as be tolerated by, like a wormrider from Dune.
At the end of the day today, Dean will have energized us. We remain convinced that he is the best candidate for the nomination, and we are acting on that belief. Some of us are on the ground, others are blogging, all of us have thrown in money at our bat time and time again - have you noticed we are almost at $40,000?
I feel good. This is February 3rd and the election is nine months away. Nine months is enough for a political gestation of sorts. We, Dean Nation and the 700k strong supporters of Dean are the embryonic seed of a new political movement. Dean may be at the apex of this new form of political life, but ultimately it is we who are the flesh and blood.
Stop looking at polls, Dean Nation. Stop looking at primaries! Start looking at the election, and at the energy that we have marshaled to get to where we are today. And reflect on this: we have only just begun to fight!
I'm feeding the bat tonight. Join me and let's make news tomorrow - Dean may not win delegates, but he is winning hearts and minds. And my dollars.
UPDATE: Joe Lieberman will likely withdraw if he doesn't win Delaware tonight. If that doesn't cheer you up, what will? :)
UPDATE 2: Superdelegates stand firm - and Al Gore is out there below the radar, where it counts!
Al Gore campaigns for Democratic presidential hopeful Howard Dean Sunday at a church in Detroit. Michigan holds its Democratic primary on Saturday.
Trippi on MSNBC tonight
I was waiting for confirmation before posting this, and we've finally got it. Former Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi will be on the special edition of Hardball tonight. The show starts at 7pm EST, and from what I understand, Joe will be providing commentary on the election returns.
Also, consider this an open thread for this afternoon. I think all of us are pretty busy today, so posting may be light. The floor is yours.
Also, consider this an open thread for this afternoon. I think all of us are pretty busy today, so posting may be light. The floor is yours.
A random hodge-podge of thoughts
Today is mini-Tuesday, and Kos has a rundown of the latest poll numbers here. Adn according to some early diary reports, turnout has been through the roof in Delaware and South Carolina.
If we take nothing else from today - including delegates - it's that the Democrats are motivated and eager to beat Bush. They are going to the polls in droves, and that should scare the beejebus out of Karl Rove. If our base is motivated (and no doubt we must give at least partial credit to the Dean movement for this trend), that's a good thing. If we can draw in new voters, that's a good thing. Both Iowa and New Hampshire had great turnouts, record numbers of new voters, and some serious ABB displays. This bodes well for our party come November.
I'd also like to take a moment to thank everyone on this blog who's taken it upon themselves to get out in the streets and support Howard Dean. In particular, I'd like to recognise JenInSC, who pioneered the letter writing effort in South Carolina. Major kudos to the grassroots in Missouri, Delaware, North Dakota, Arizona, Oklahoma, and New Mexico as well. They have had a much tougher job over the past few weeks and they deserve serious applause for sticking with the plan and doing their best to GOTV. If we get *anything* out of today, it will be thanks to the grassroots. I just wanted to make sure that they know how much we appreciate and admire their efforts.
Looking forward, the Michigan contest isSunday Saturday. Michigan allows online voting, and many in the Dean camp have speculated that might help us. As of last week, only 7500 internet ballots had been cast and only 7500 have been cast via snail mail. Michigan is expecting a turnout of at least 100,000 voters. To add another twist, populat Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm endorsed John Kerry the other day. Congrats to the Kerry camp - Ms. Granholm is a great asset.
The great state of Maine is holding their caucus this weekend, and it looks like a Kerry-Dean tossup at the moment. Washington State also holds their contest thisSunday Saturday, and I think we all know that the Dean grassroots there are strong. For upcoming events in Washington state, please keep your eye on washington.deanforamerica.com.
By all accounts, we're looking pretty good in Wisconsin on Feb 17. although nothing is certain at this point and the situation is changing daily. Depending on how things shake down tonight (Edwards has pledged to drop out if he doesn't win South Carolina, and others may drop as well if they don't pull out key victories), Wisconsin could be the place where the anti-Kerry emerges.
Burlington has announced that employees will be getting paid again next week, which is a good thing. The money is still rolling in (over $3 million raised since Iowa), and the grassroots (while a bit shaken after the events of the past few weeks) are still growing. Over 630,000 Americans have joined Dean for America, and Meetup is close to 190,000.
Overall, compared to some of the other guys, we are doing just fine. But it's certainly crunch time, and I'm hoping the grassroots will be able to deliver some delegates today.
If we take nothing else from today - including delegates - it's that the Democrats are motivated and eager to beat Bush. They are going to the polls in droves, and that should scare the beejebus out of Karl Rove. If our base is motivated (and no doubt we must give at least partial credit to the Dean movement for this trend), that's a good thing. If we can draw in new voters, that's a good thing. Both Iowa and New Hampshire had great turnouts, record numbers of new voters, and some serious ABB displays. This bodes well for our party come November.
I'd also like to take a moment to thank everyone on this blog who's taken it upon themselves to get out in the streets and support Howard Dean. In particular, I'd like to recognise JenInSC, who pioneered the letter writing effort in South Carolina. Major kudos to the grassroots in Missouri, Delaware, North Dakota, Arizona, Oklahoma, and New Mexico as well. They have had a much tougher job over the past few weeks and they deserve serious applause for sticking with the plan and doing their best to GOTV. If we get *anything* out of today, it will be thanks to the grassroots. I just wanted to make sure that they know how much we appreciate and admire their efforts.
Looking forward, the Michigan contest is
The great state of Maine is holding their caucus this weekend, and it looks like a Kerry-Dean tossup at the moment. Washington State also holds their contest this
By all accounts, we're looking pretty good in Wisconsin on Feb 17. although nothing is certain at this point and the situation is changing daily. Depending on how things shake down tonight (Edwards has pledged to drop out if he doesn't win South Carolina, and others may drop as well if they don't pull out key victories), Wisconsin could be the place where the anti-Kerry emerges.
Burlington has announced that employees will be getting paid again next week, which is a good thing. The money is still rolling in (over $3 million raised since Iowa), and the grassroots (while a bit shaken after the events of the past few weeks) are still growing. Over 630,000 Americans have joined Dean for America, and Meetup is close to 190,000.
Overall, compared to some of the other guys, we are doing just fine. But it's certainly crunch time, and I'm hoping the grassroots will be able to deliver some delegates today.
Monday, February 02, 2004
An Open Secret http://www.opensecrets.org/presidential/index.asp?sort=C
Why are we so certain Dean can survive poor results tomorrow and continue on?
Well, it's an open secret.
Specifically, it's opensecrets.org, which collects financial reports from all the campaigns. Here's the key figure, cash on hand, as ofSaturday, January 31 December 31:
Howard Dean $9,647,361
Wesley Clark $3,404,975
Dennis Kucinich $2,629,441
John Kerry $1,605,428
Joe Lieberman $612,161
John Edwards $275,212
Al Sharpton $7,535
Now, victory will help Kerry re-charge. But how will Edwards, or Lieberman, if they fail to do well tomorrow? How will Sharpton?
Need some more confidence. Talk to the bat. Over $500,000 has come in since Saturday, just on the bat.
In other words, someone is going down tomorrow, and it is not going to be us. And where does Clark go from Oklahoma? Where is his infrastructure in Tennessee and Virginia?
No, it's not going to be easy. But we can do it. Let people know we're competing, with a few well-produced TV ads, let them know what the competition is, and people will come. Already, over 630,000 have come. More come all the time.
We can do this thing. We just have to execute. Let our competitors go down, one-by-one. Make the case against Kerry, and win.
Well, it's an open secret.
Specifically, it's opensecrets.org, which collects financial reports from all the campaigns. Here's the key figure, cash on hand, as of
Howard Dean $9,647,361
Wesley Clark $3,404,975
Dennis Kucinich $2,629,441
John Kerry $1,605,428
Joe Lieberman $612,161
John Edwards $275,212
Al Sharpton $7,535
Now, victory will help Kerry re-charge. But how will Edwards, or Lieberman, if they fail to do well tomorrow? How will Sharpton?
Need some more confidence. Talk to the bat. Over $500,000 has come in since Saturday, just on the bat.
In other words, someone is going down tomorrow, and it is not going to be us. And where does Clark go from Oklahoma? Where is his infrastructure in Tennessee and Virginia?
No, it's not going to be easy. But we can do it. Let people know we're competing, with a few well-produced TV ads, let them know what the competition is, and people will come. Already, over 630,000 have come. More come all the time.
We can do this thing. We just have to execute. Let our competitors go down, one-by-one. Make the case against Kerry, and win.
1992 Results http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/2/2/235151/6327
"Quantum" from Daily Kos has posted the results of the first 13 primaries/caucuses from 1992. Bill Clinton won exactly three. There are definitely differences between now and then, but this does show that every year is unique, and the early favorite can trip up quite easily. John Kerry is running off aura. I grew up across the river from Missouri and have a lot of friends and family from there, and I can tell you he should not be dominating based on anything else. And as that aura wears off, those who would declare the race over will discover that there's a contest again.
Another Ad http://www.cinemetrix.com/home/demo/dean
Several Massachusetts Deaniacs were interviewed for this ad for DFA.
Pass it on!
http://www.cinemetrix.com/home/demo/dean
Pass it on!
http://www.cinemetrix.com/home/demo/dean
the slow road http://www.tnr.com/blog/campaignjournal?pid=1274
Ryan Lizza's Campaign Journal blog has been essential reading. He takes a look at the delegate counts and offers a rather important critique of the stated strategy of the Dean campaign:
There's a reason Neel has been silent about Feb 10th - it's because they are ignoring the grassroots base. What's needed is a high-level call to arms by Dean himself to his supporters in the Feb 3rd and the Feb 10th states, to bracket his own personal efforts fpor Feb 7th.
The impression I get is that the campaign is trying to play it safe. Dean spoke openly about racial issues once - but now he is ceding South Carolina. And Jesse Jackson Jr has reportedly been seen with Kerry - not surprising given that Dean hasn't even tried to capitalize on that support or endorsement. Dean likewise spoke openly about the need to court the southern voter - and now it's Kerry who is on record as saying that the Southern voter has the same concerns as the northern one. Dean's message is being co-opted and with it, any distinction between him and the rest of the field.
The main advantage Dean has is us. We can only do so much on our own. But a campaign strategy that leaves gaping holes with barely any mention of how they can be filled - or even a public acknowledgement that the grassroots are being actively asked to plug them - is running with one hand tied behind its back.
According to Roy Neel's strategy memo, Dean is hoping for two paradoxical results tomorrow. On the one hand Neel wants Edwards and Clark cleared from the race. On the other hand he wants Kerry weakened. Of course, the way for Kerry to be weakened is for Clark and Edwards to beat Kerry in Oklahoma and South Carolina, thus keeping them viable. Neel is also silent on his plan for the February 10 Tennessee and Virginia contests, which together are worth 151 delegates.
Finally, Dean spent two years and $45 million trying a version of this strategy in Iowa and New Hampshire. It didn't work.
There's a reason Neel has been silent about Feb 10th - it's because they are ignoring the grassroots base. What's needed is a high-level call to arms by Dean himself to his supporters in the Feb 3rd and the Feb 10th states, to bracket his own personal efforts fpor Feb 7th.
The impression I get is that the campaign is trying to play it safe. Dean spoke openly about racial issues once - but now he is ceding South Carolina. And Jesse Jackson Jr has reportedly been seen with Kerry - not surprising given that Dean hasn't even tried to capitalize on that support or endorsement. Dean likewise spoke openly about the need to court the southern voter - and now it's Kerry who is on record as saying that the Southern voter has the same concerns as the northern one. Dean's message is being co-opted and with it, any distinction between him and the rest of the field.
The main advantage Dean has is us. We can only do so much on our own. But a campaign strategy that leaves gaping holes with barely any mention of how they can be filled - or even a public acknowledgement that the grassroots are being actively asked to plug them - is running with one hand tied behind its back.
Good News from Kerryland
QUESTION: If you hold a statewide organizing meeting in John Kerry's homestate only a few days after the New Hampshire primary -- and after much media crowing about Howard Dean being a has been and John Kerry being a shoo in -- will anyone show up?
ANSWER: You betcha.
On Saturday, January 31, Massachusetts for Dean held an all-day organizing meeting -- a morning session at UMass-Amherst and an afternoon session at Boston University. We planned the meeting in the midst of the Iowa and New Hampshire efforts. In other words, this meeting got planned in about a week and many folks in MA found out about it at the last minute and in the midst of the latest round of the anti-Dean media circus (which has been especially strong in Massachusetts, not surprisingly).
How many people showed up? Close to 50 in Western Mass, and well over 100 in Boston. It was standing room only to hear Steve Grossman (National Co-Chair of DFA) and the Governor's brother, Bill Dean (who lives in MA), and listen to presentations by MassforDean organizers about: what we'll be doing to help out in Michigan and Maine; registering MA voters by the February 11 deadline; MFD's media strategy; and GOTV in MA for March 2. The Q&A and breakout sessions were lively and went well beyond the time limits.
The energy at these meetings was INCREDIBLE. People are not discouraged; they are energized; they are determined. In some ways, it was like an enormous statewide meetup. There was a good mix of longtime Dean activists and quite a few newbies (we invited our whole mailing list and DFA sent out a notice to all their tens of thousands of supporters in MA).
We even got some media coverage. NECN (New England Cable News) dropped by the Boston session and interviewed Steve Grossman.
What we have built is amazing. What we have inspired is amazing. We are much more powerful than we sometimes think we are. And while we shouldn't kid ourselves -- this is going to be a tough tough climb -- we cannot forget: WE HAVE THE POWER. Onward!
ANSWER: You betcha.
On Saturday, January 31, Massachusetts for Dean held an all-day organizing meeting -- a morning session at UMass-Amherst and an afternoon session at Boston University. We planned the meeting in the midst of the Iowa and New Hampshire efforts. In other words, this meeting got planned in about a week and many folks in MA found out about it at the last minute and in the midst of the latest round of the anti-Dean media circus (which has been especially strong in Massachusetts, not surprisingly).
How many people showed up? Close to 50 in Western Mass, and well over 100 in Boston. It was standing room only to hear Steve Grossman (National Co-Chair of DFA) and the Governor's brother, Bill Dean (who lives in MA), and listen to presentations by MassforDean organizers about: what we'll be doing to help out in Michigan and Maine; registering MA voters by the February 11 deadline; MFD's media strategy; and GOTV in MA for March 2. The Q&A and breakout sessions were lively and went well beyond the time limits.
The energy at these meetings was INCREDIBLE. People are not discouraged; they are energized; they are determined. In some ways, it was like an enormous statewide meetup. There was a good mix of longtime Dean activists and quite a few newbies (we invited our whole mailing list and DFA sent out a notice to all their tens of thousands of supporters in MA).
We even got some media coverage. NECN (New England Cable News) dropped by the Boston session and interviewed Steve Grossman.
What we have built is amazing. What we have inspired is amazing. We are much more powerful than we sometimes think we are. And while we shouldn't kid ourselves -- this is going to be a tough tough climb -- we cannot forget: WE HAVE THE POWER. Onward!
Today's Inspiration http://artsci.wustl.edu/~gsbarkin/Dean
Graduate student Gareth Barkin has home-produced one of the best Dean commercials I've seen in some time.
The link in the paragraph above is to a Windows Media Player file. The link in the headline leads to files in other formats.
This has been one of the chief grassroots complaints against the campaign, the quality of its commercials. Since I don't live in Iowa I didn't see any of the official ads, but I can tell you this one is pretty good. It combines an honest attack on John Kerry's record with an uplifting pitch for the Dean message. Its only fault is the length -- 1:30. But that can be fixed.
The link in the paragraph above is to a Windows Media Player file. The link in the headline leads to files in other formats.
This has been one of the chief grassroots complaints against the campaign, the quality of its commercials. Since I don't live in Iowa I didn't see any of the official ads, but I can tell you this one is pretty good. It combines an honest attack on John Kerry's record with an uplifting pitch for the Dean message. Its only fault is the length -- 1:30. But that can be fixed.
Dean must attend the Feb 4th Meetup in Ann Arbor http://dean2004.meetup.com/537
Roy Neel gets it partly right:
I'm pleased to see that the campaign is making stops in Feb 7th states while the rest of the field focuses on the Feb 3rd lineup - but remember that Clark had weeks to himself in New Hampshire, yet still finished 4th (sans delegates).
A rally, even with thousands in attendance, is just a stump speech. A Meetup however is something far more tangible. Meetups, unlike rallies, are where we really convert hearts and minds to this cause, as opposed to rewarding those who have already signed on.
And Michigan is the prize - here are teh number of delegates at stake by state (via Ryan Lizza):
Focus, oh Wolverines! You must get Dean to the Ann Arbor Meetup on Feb 4th. If Dean does not show, I predict he will lose the state. It's up to us to make the case.
Thanks to many of you, our crowds over the past week have been phenomenal -- thousands in Michigan, South Carolina, Missouri, New Mexico, Arizona, Washington, Milwaukee, and Detroit. Tomorrow Gov. Dean will be in New Mexico and Arizona, back to Washington, Wisconsin, and Michigan. He is the quintessential Energizer bunny of presidential campaigning -- I'm amazed by his energy and durability!
I'm pleased to see that the campaign is making stops in Feb 7th states while the rest of the field focuses on the Feb 3rd lineup - but remember that Clark had weeks to himself in New Hampshire, yet still finished 4th (sans delegates).
A rally, even with thousands in attendance, is just a stump speech. A Meetup however is something far more tangible. Meetups, unlike rallies, are where we really convert hearts and minds to this cause, as opposed to rewarding those who have already signed on.
And Michigan is the prize - here are teh number of delegates at stake by state (via Ryan Lizza):
February 3 (269)
South Carolina (45)
Missouri (74)
North Dakota (14)
Arizona (55)
New Mexico (26)
Delaware (15)
Oklahoma (40)
February 7 (204)
Michigan (128)
Washington (76)
Focus, oh Wolverines! You must get Dean to the Ann Arbor Meetup on Feb 4th. If Dean does not show, I predict he will lose the state. It's up to us to make the case.
The 15% Solution
Clinton's famous line of fighting "until the last dog dies" is fitting this morning.
That's what the Dean grassroots have to do tomorrow. Because a lot of media pundits will want to stick a fork in us after the results come in.
But we're fighting, in every state. Jason Gervich sent a letter he got printed in the Arizona Republic on Dean's electability. The o-blog is filled with heart-warming stories of Dean visibility in New Mexico, in North Dakota, in Delaware -- in all the February 3 states.
And the Good Doctor himself has been racing across the country like a man possessed, rallying the troops. Even Roy Neel has found a more down-home voice on the o-blog.
Just so we're crystal clear on what we need tomorrow.
Delegates.
We can get delegates in any Congressional District where Dean scores 15% of the vote. Even if we get, say, 8% in one state, we still score delegates if it's 15% in a CD.
And not all these races are primaries, either. North Dakota is a caucus. Governor Dean drew over 500 to a North Dakota rally just a few months ago. We can do well there if we just show up.
Also, ignore the spin. This is last-gasp time for Lieberman, Sharpton, Edwards, and Clark -- not us. If Lieberman gets shut-out, if Sharpton or Edwards can't win South Carolina, and if Clark can't win Oklahoma, they're gone. That's OK -- it brings the one-on-one contest with Kerry closer. And if any of these candidates scores a breakthrough tomorrow that's also good, because it slows Kerry's momentum.
We don't have to win. So if we do win anywhere it's huge. And we have a great organization, especially in the Hispanic communities, in New Mexico and Arizona. We've got a ton of fans in North Dakota. We've been organizing Delaware. (I hope I'm not leaving anyone out.) Just remember, tomorrow is about delegates, not ultimate victory.
Let's get some delegates. Remember the 15% solution. Better days are coming.
That's what the Dean grassroots have to do tomorrow. Because a lot of media pundits will want to stick a fork in us after the results come in.
But we're fighting, in every state. Jason Gervich sent a letter he got printed in the Arizona Republic on Dean's electability. The o-blog is filled with heart-warming stories of Dean visibility in New Mexico, in North Dakota, in Delaware -- in all the February 3 states.
And the Good Doctor himself has been racing across the country like a man possessed, rallying the troops. Even Roy Neel has found a more down-home voice on the o-blog.
Just so we're crystal clear on what we need tomorrow.
Delegates.
We can get delegates in any Congressional District where Dean scores 15% of the vote. Even if we get, say, 8% in one state, we still score delegates if it's 15% in a CD.
And not all these races are primaries, either. North Dakota is a caucus. Governor Dean drew over 500 to a North Dakota rally just a few months ago. We can do well there if we just show up.
Also, ignore the spin. This is last-gasp time for Lieberman, Sharpton, Edwards, and Clark -- not us. If Lieberman gets shut-out, if Sharpton or Edwards can't win South Carolina, and if Clark can't win Oklahoma, they're gone. That's OK -- it brings the one-on-one contest with Kerry closer. And if any of these candidates scores a breakthrough tomorrow that's also good, because it slows Kerry's momentum.
We don't have to win. So if we do win anywhere it's huge. And we have a great organization, especially in the Hispanic communities, in New Mexico and Arizona. We've got a ton of fans in North Dakota. We've been organizing Delaware. (I hope I'm not leaving anyone out.) Just remember, tomorrow is about delegates, not ultimate victory.
Let's get some delegates. Remember the 15% solution. Better days are coming.
Sunday, February 01, 2004
SPECIAL interest Kerry
Since Tuesday many people on this blog (and the o-blog) have been suggesting what issue will knock John Kerry down, and give our guy another shot at winning this thing.
We’ve had fair charges (Dukakis-Kerry) and unproven charges (Botox-Kerry). We’ve had irrelevant charges (Ketchup-Kerry) and relevant ones (Waffler-Kerry).
But the only judge who counts, Howard Dean, has spoken, on Meet The Press this morning. The winning entry is (drum roll)… Special Interest Kerry.
Pictured (so as not to annoy the good people of Kellogg, in Battle Creek, Michigan, site of a primary this Saturday) is a failed extension of the “Special K” line. (The original product is delicious. I have some in my pantry right now.) Kerry, like the product pictured, will, if chosen, fail in the market.
To be effective a charge must not only be true, it must play into existing doubts about a candidate. This charge does, because it shows that Kerry, like Bush, says one thing and does the opposite. He’s as phony as a “compassionate conservative.”
Here is the story on which the charge is based, which in turn is based on a simple analysis of campaign finance records.
But wait, there’s more:
So, can John Kerry make the most important case of this campaign, namely that George W. Bush is beholden to special interests and a Democratic President won’t be?
The answer is he cannot. He will be taken apart by the Bush machine, plucked like a chicken. He is the easiest candidate for George W. Bush to beat, not the hardest.
The hardest is the man who has gotten his money from people like you, and thus is only beholden to people like you.
If Democrats are serious about winning, and serious about making a difference, the candidate they must choose, starting in Wisconsin, is Governor Howard Dean. It’s now up to us to make this case in every way, and every place, we possibly can.
We’ve had fair charges (Dukakis-Kerry) and unproven charges (Botox-Kerry). We’ve had irrelevant charges (Ketchup-Kerry) and relevant ones (Waffler-Kerry).
But the only judge who counts, Howard Dean, has spoken, on Meet The Press this morning. The winning entry is (drum roll)… Special Interest Kerry.
Pictured (so as not to annoy the good people of Kellogg, in Battle Creek, Michigan, site of a primary this Saturday) is a failed extension of the “Special K” line. (The original product is delicious. I have some in my pantry right now.) Kerry, like the product pictured, will, if chosen, fail in the market.
To be effective a charge must not only be true, it must play into existing doubts about a candidate. This charge does, because it shows that Kerry, like Bush, says one thing and does the opposite. He’s as phony as a “compassionate conservative.”
Here is the story on which the charge is based, which in turn is based on a simple analysis of campaign finance records.
While Senator John Kerry regularly promises to stand up to "big corporations," his campaign has taken money from executives on Wall Street and those representing the telecommunications industry, which is under his purview in Congress. Mr. Kerry denounces President Bush for catering to the rich, but he has depended more heavily on affluent donors than the other leading Democrats except for another populist, Senator John Edwards.
But wait, there’s more:
Mr. Kerry has criticized the current "creed of greed" and faulted Mr. Bush letting "the privileged ride high and reap the rewards." But his typical donors share at least one similarity with the president's, an ability to give $2,000, the legal maximum.
Fifty-five percent of Mr. Kerry's money has come from donors giving $2,000. For Mr. Bush, the comparable figure is 73 percent, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.
The center's analysis shows that small donors, those giving $200 or less, have provided 12 percent of Mr. Kerry's campaign money, the same percentage they provided for Mr. Bush.
So, can John Kerry make the most important case of this campaign, namely that George W. Bush is beholden to special interests and a Democratic President won’t be?
The answer is he cannot. He will be taken apart by the Bush machine, plucked like a chicken. He is the easiest candidate for George W. Bush to beat, not the hardest.
The hardest is the man who has gotten his money from people like you, and thus is only beholden to people like you.
If Democrats are serious about winning, and serious about making a difference, the candidate they must choose, starting in Wisconsin, is Governor Howard Dean. It’s now up to us to make this case in every way, and every place, we possibly can.
Saturday, January 31, 2004
Trippi Still Working After NH Concession Speech
What a warrior.
It's a Ground War http://dean.postersforamerica.com
The bat is still swinging, but the campaign doesn't have the money for an air war in the next seven states. To pick up delegates, we need a ground war from the grassroots. The grassroots built this campaign, and they can do it again, this weekend - help show that you still support Howard Dean. Pick a pre-designed sign or easily create your own:
One-on-One
What makes Roy Neel so confident Howard Dean can come back?
First, there is us. We may not be able to win a primary by ourselves, but we can certainly keep Dr. Dean from meeting Howard's End. With $1.4 million on the bat, with thousands of activists in every February 3 state, we may not win any but we won't be shut out of delegates.
Second, there is the math facing General Clark, and Senator Edwards. They're from the South, they have to do well there. If the Massachusetts Senator smokes them in places like Oklahoma, Arizona and South Carolina, their funds are going to dry up faster than water on a hot griddle. At that point, he expects, the networks will point at Sharpton, Lieberman and Kucinich, then point to the door. (If Clark or Edwards pulls a surprise Tuesday, by the way, good for our side, because it slows Kerry's mometum.)
Third, of course, Neel is aiming for the small table. That's where the late debates are often held, around a small table. Even if there's no table, the rules are adjusted, so candidates can no longer rely on their stump speeches and have to think on their feet.
This is where Howard Dean will shine through. Consider how well he did on Hardball after the Thursday debate? Fifteen minutes of fast back-and-forth on Iraq, he talked as rapidly as the hosts, and he finished with his very best point -- the enemy of my enemy may not be my friend, he's my enemy. Devastating.
Kerry can't survive in that kind of hothouse. Dean will tear him apart. Neel is depending on that, and I think he's right.
First, there is us. We may not be able to win a primary by ourselves, but we can certainly keep Dr. Dean from meeting Howard's End. With $1.4 million on the bat, with thousands of activists in every February 3 state, we may not win any but we won't be shut out of delegates.
Second, there is the math facing General Clark, and Senator Edwards. They're from the South, they have to do well there. If the Massachusetts Senator smokes them in places like Oklahoma, Arizona and South Carolina, their funds are going to dry up faster than water on a hot griddle. At that point, he expects, the networks will point at Sharpton, Lieberman and Kucinich, then point to the door. (If Clark or Edwards pulls a surprise Tuesday, by the way, good for our side, because it slows Kerry's mometum.)
Third, of course, Neel is aiming for the small table. That's where the late debates are often held, around a small table. Even if there's no table, the rules are adjusted, so candidates can no longer rely on their stump speeches and have to think on their feet.
This is where Howard Dean will shine through. Consider how well he did on Hardball after the Thursday debate? Fifteen minutes of fast back-and-forth on Iraq, he talked as rapidly as the hosts, and he finished with his very best point -- the enemy of my enemy may not be my friend, he's my enemy. Devastating.
Kerry can't survive in that kind of hothouse. Dean will tear him apart. Neel is depending on that, and I think he's right.
Friday, January 30, 2004
Roy's Mis-speak http://blog.deanforamerica.com/archives/003471.html
I get what Roy Neel is saying.
We don't have to win Tuesday. We don't even have to win the following Saturday.
If we just hang around, picking up delegates where we can, and saving all that money coming in off the bat, we can get Kerry all alone, starting around Wisconsin, and most delegates will still be unchosen.
In other words, we're to become the "anti-Kerry."
Fine. Good. Wonderful. But does he have to put it this way:
When he could just as easily have put it this way:
The first is the language of a Washington insider, writing for the punditocracy. The second is the language of a general directing his troops toward the next big battle and forward toward ultimate victory. The first could have gone off in an e-mail to the Washington press corps. We need something more.
With all the pundits now writing us off, what we need from our general most right now is a pep talk. It doesn't have to sound like Joe Trippi. We know Joe Trippi. We love Joe Trippi. Roy Neel is no Joe Trippi.
Sigh. I guess I just miss ol' Joe.
We don't have to win Tuesday. We don't even have to win the following Saturday.
If we just hang around, picking up delegates where we can, and saving all that money coming in off the bat, we can get Kerry all alone, starting around Wisconsin, and most delegates will still be unchosen.
In other words, we're to become the "anti-Kerry."
Fine. Good. Wonderful. But does he have to put it this way:
we have elected to not buy television advertisements in February 3 states, but instead direct our resources toward the February 7 and 8 contests in Michigan, Washington and Maine. We may not win any February 3 state, but even third place finishes will allow us to move forward, continue to amass delegates in Virginia and Tennessee on February 10, and then strongly challenge Kerry in Wisconsin.
When he could just as easily have put it this way:
We have decided to fully empower our grassroots supporters through February 17. We believe you will keep us competitive while other candidates falter.
This has always been your campaign and, for the next true weeks, that will literally be the case. We believe you can shock the world, that with your hard work we can turn this race around, and that we can dominate the delegate selection process from Wisconsin onward.
You have the tools, you have the enthusiasm, you have the will to take this party back and take this country back.
Let's go get 'em!
The first is the language of a Washington insider, writing for the punditocracy. The second is the language of a general directing his troops toward the next big battle and forward toward ultimate victory. The first could have gone off in an e-mail to the Washington press corps. We need something more.
With all the pundits now writing us off, what we need from our general most right now is a pep talk. It doesn't have to sound like Joe Trippi. We know Joe Trippi. We love Joe Trippi. Roy Neel is no Joe Trippi.
Sigh. I guess I just miss ol' Joe.
The Misunderstanding of Judy Dean http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4066284/
For those who haven't seen this, Gersh Kuntzman over at Newsweek/MSNBC writes a very complimentary article on Judith Steinberg Dean. It's just one more reason I have so much respect for both Howard and Judith Steinberg Dean. When I read this, I thought "finally, somebody gets it." This isn't some sort of slick media play to attract points. Howard and Judy are real people. Vermonters know this and understand who they are - I think many of the people who have become involved in this campaign appreciate a "real person" running for president. Howard and Judy Dean are certainly real people - good and bad together. Capable of doing great things, and capable of making mistakes and moving on.
I'm tired of demanding "the right look" for president. I want a President and First Lady with substance and self-awareness. I thought this article just reflected so well on Judy - and it says something positive about Howard's character that he picked such a woman to be his partner.
"In what is supposedly an enlightened age for women, we in the media should be celebrating Dean's independence, not questioning it. Shouldn't it be refreshing to meet a woman who'd prefer to be a doctor than gazing longingly from the edge of the stage as her husband delivers the seventh identical stump speech of the day? (And how come all of my supposedly gifted media colleagues missed the irony of an independent, modern woman, who nonetheless has one foot in that bygone age of doctors who make house calls? That alone should have won her points.)"
In The Interview, Mrs. Dean again showed us her humility, her professionalism, her dedication, her...what's that word?...her integrity (I almost forgot the word because it's such a rare sight on television). Every time Dean opened her mouth, I found myself hoping that my daughter grows up to be Judith Steinberg Dean.
Yet the more she spoke, the more "sins" she rang up.
"I don't watch TV that much," she said. Diane was visibly upset.
"I am kind of private...and I have a medical practice which I love," she said later. "And I think it's really important for me, and Howard knows it's important to me. But, I also love Howard, and I think he would make a terrific president...And, I think if I can help him, I will. And that doesn't mean he's going to disrupt my life, disrupt my patients, my son, but if he calls on a Saturday, and I'm not on call that weekend, I'll be out there Sunday." Imagine that, a husband and wife who support each other's careers. Diane was skeptical."
The interview goes on like this. At any rate, thought I'd share it with all of you... and three cheers for Judy!
I'm tired of demanding "the right look" for president. I want a President and First Lady with substance and self-awareness. I thought this article just reflected so well on Judy - and it says something positive about Howard's character that he picked such a woman to be his partner.
"In what is supposedly an enlightened age for women, we in the media should be celebrating Dean's independence, not questioning it. Shouldn't it be refreshing to meet a woman who'd prefer to be a doctor than gazing longingly from the edge of the stage as her husband delivers the seventh identical stump speech of the day? (And how come all of my supposedly gifted media colleagues missed the irony of an independent, modern woman, who nonetheless has one foot in that bygone age of doctors who make house calls? That alone should have won her points.)"
In The Interview, Mrs. Dean again showed us her humility, her professionalism, her dedication, her...what's that word?...her integrity (I almost forgot the word because it's such a rare sight on television). Every time Dean opened her mouth, I found myself hoping that my daughter grows up to be Judith Steinberg Dean.
Yet the more she spoke, the more "sins" she rang up.
"I don't watch TV that much," she said. Diane was visibly upset.
"I am kind of private...and I have a medical practice which I love," she said later. "And I think it's really important for me, and Howard knows it's important to me. But, I also love Howard, and I think he would make a terrific president...And, I think if I can help him, I will. And that doesn't mean he's going to disrupt my life, disrupt my patients, my son, but if he calls on a Saturday, and I'm not on call that weekend, I'll be out there Sunday." Imagine that, a husband and wife who support each other's careers. Diane was skeptical."
The interview goes on like this. At any rate, thought I'd share it with all of you... and three cheers for Judy!
The Biggest Bush Fraud Of All
Time out for an issue vital to the 2004 Electoral Finals, namely the economy.
The Bush Administration claims everything is lovely. They base this on two quarters’ GDP growth, which itself is based heavily on rising stock prices.
Prices are up from a year ago, as much as 20%. But the fact that is being hidden is that the value of the dollar is also down, by an equal (sometimes greater) amount.
This does not just mean a European vacation is out of the question. It also means that foreign investments in our economy are, despite the rising stock market, actually falling in value. Japanese, Chinese, Arab, and European investors are all losing money on their dollar investments.
Now consider that both our trade and budget deficits are largely funded by foreigners. China’s purchases of dollars are the biggest “seller financing” deal of all time. (We get stuff, they get dollars, they don’t change those dollars into Chinese currency.) It won’t continue if the value of those dollars keeps declining.
Consider too that for generations the dollar has been a “reserve currency.” Oil is priced in dollars, and our government pays for the national debt in dollars. This is an advantage enjoyed by no one else. Every economic collapse in the developing world, whether in Asia, Africa or Argentina, is tied to their currency’s fall in value against the dollar. Their loans were in dollars, their currency fell against the dollar, so no matter how much they paid back, they owed more and more. No other nation, other than ours, can actually finance its debts by just printing more money.
That is about to change. Oil exporters won’t take dollars forever if those dollars turn to water in their hands. Bankers won’t lend us dollars forever if those dollars turn to water, either.
At some point, maybe this year, Russia or Saudi Arabia could start demanding oil payments in something more stable, say, Euros. As the Euro becomes a “reserve currency” our economic power wanes permanently. So does our economic independence. Our best companies, even our land, can all be had on the cheap.
A falling dollar fuels higher interest rates, higher prices, and falling real incomes, even if things seem OK in the short term. George W. Bush did this deliberately. A falling dollar makes our exports cheaper, and imports more expensive. It’s short-term gain for long-term pain. He hopes to keep the scam going through, say, November.
There is only one Democrat who has called Bush and Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan on this fraud. That Democrat is Howard Dean.
The question for America today is this? Are you going to let Bush get away with this fraud as well?
No? So what are you doing TODAY to make sure he doesn’t?
The Bush Administration claims everything is lovely. They base this on two quarters’ GDP growth, which itself is based heavily on rising stock prices.
Prices are up from a year ago, as much as 20%. But the fact that is being hidden is that the value of the dollar is also down, by an equal (sometimes greater) amount.
This does not just mean a European vacation is out of the question. It also means that foreign investments in our economy are, despite the rising stock market, actually falling in value. Japanese, Chinese, Arab, and European investors are all losing money on their dollar investments.
Now consider that both our trade and budget deficits are largely funded by foreigners. China’s purchases of dollars are the biggest “seller financing” deal of all time. (We get stuff, they get dollars, they don’t change those dollars into Chinese currency.) It won’t continue if the value of those dollars keeps declining.
Consider too that for generations the dollar has been a “reserve currency.” Oil is priced in dollars, and our government pays for the national debt in dollars. This is an advantage enjoyed by no one else. Every economic collapse in the developing world, whether in Asia, Africa or Argentina, is tied to their currency’s fall in value against the dollar. Their loans were in dollars, their currency fell against the dollar, so no matter how much they paid back, they owed more and more. No other nation, other than ours, can actually finance its debts by just printing more money.
That is about to change. Oil exporters won’t take dollars forever if those dollars turn to water in their hands. Bankers won’t lend us dollars forever if those dollars turn to water, either.
At some point, maybe this year, Russia or Saudi Arabia could start demanding oil payments in something more stable, say, Euros. As the Euro becomes a “reserve currency” our economic power wanes permanently. So does our economic independence. Our best companies, even our land, can all be had on the cheap.
A falling dollar fuels higher interest rates, higher prices, and falling real incomes, even if things seem OK in the short term. George W. Bush did this deliberately. A falling dollar makes our exports cheaper, and imports more expensive. It’s short-term gain for long-term pain. He hopes to keep the scam going through, say, November.
There is only one Democrat who has called Bush and Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan on this fraud. That Democrat is Howard Dean.
The question for America today is this? Are you going to let Bush get away with this fraud as well?
No? So what are you doing TODAY to make sure he doesn’t?
Diane Sawyer Gets Religion http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/news/012904_nw_dean_scream_abcnews.html
A quick post -- courtesy of John and Tom on the Zonkboard -- about Diane Sawyer's recent (yesterday) review of the media's treatment of the "I Have a Scream" speech.
In short, Diane gets many network bigwigs to admit that they blew it way out of proportion and didn't put the speech in context -- i.e. Dean had to shout to be heard over the roar of 3000+ supporters. A fact that many of us who were there, including many reporters, knew all along.
A rare case indeed to have the mainstream media admit they made a big blunder. Perhaps we should write this date on our calendars...
Read the story here; watch the segment here.
In short, Diane gets many network bigwigs to admit that they blew it way out of proportion and didn't put the speech in context -- i.e. Dean had to shout to be heard over the roar of 3000+ supporters. A fact that many of us who were there, including many reporters, knew all along.
A rare case indeed to have the mainstream media admit they made a big blunder. Perhaps we should write this date on our calendars...
Read the story here; watch the segment here.
February 3 Is Up To Us
I wish Roy Neel had said this more explicitly. But the message seems clear to me nonetheless, and it should be clear to you.
The Dean campaign is going to put its ad money into the February 7 states with the most delegates. February 3 belongs to the grassroots.
I know we "failed" in Iowa, and in New Hampshire. But I have a theory on that.
We were too thick on the ground. We tried too hard. We put too many chips on "red" and, when we didn't win outright, we looked like losers.
Not just Dean. But Dean Nation.
Well this weekend is our chance for redemption. If you live in Missouri, Arizona, New Mexico, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Delaware, or North Dakota, we are all depending on you this weekend.
The Web site has the tools. Voting has begun in most of those states. You can be bringing people to the polls NOW. You can be distributing literature, you can be launching phone trees, you can be e-mailing links to things like Common Sense
You can even, if you choose, add your own negative talking points. It's not being done by Dean for America. It's up to you.
If the grassroots can turn out a better-than-expected showing, if they can win only one or two of these states with no help from Burlington, then the story of February 3 will be about our power, and how Kerry failed.
Get to work, people. You have four days to turn America around.
The Dean campaign is going to put its ad money into the February 7 states with the most delegates. February 3 belongs to the grassroots.
I know we "failed" in Iowa, and in New Hampshire. But I have a theory on that.
We were too thick on the ground. We tried too hard. We put too many chips on "red" and, when we didn't win outright, we looked like losers.
Not just Dean. But Dean Nation.
Well this weekend is our chance for redemption. If you live in Missouri, Arizona, New Mexico, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Delaware, or North Dakota, we are all depending on you this weekend.
The Web site has the tools. Voting has begun in most of those states. You can be bringing people to the polls NOW. You can be distributing literature, you can be launching phone trees, you can be e-mailing links to things like Common Sense
You can even, if you choose, add your own negative talking points. It's not being done by Dean for America. It's up to you.
If the grassroots can turn out a better-than-expected showing, if they can win only one or two of these states with no help from Burlington, then the story of February 3 will be about our power, and how Kerry failed.
Get to work, people. You have four days to turn America around.
Daily Review
Transcript: Democratic Candidates Debate in South Carolina
Kerry not unstoppable, analysts say
The Dead Center
Gwen Ifill speaks with former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean
Howard Dean is visiting Michigan
Democrats vow to roll back Bush tax cuts
Kerry not unstoppable, analysts say
The Dead Center
Gwen Ifill speaks with former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean
Howard Dean is visiting Michigan
Democrats vow to roll back Bush tax cuts
Face Facts
Let us face some facts.
1). This race is not over.
2). Even if Dean loses the nod, our movement is not over.
3). If indeed Dean loses the nod, we, WE, must keep this movement alive.
4). If Kerry gets the nod, his first test of leadership is to bring us in. I predict he might fail -- but if that happens (and I think we still could win -- and will, I pray) I hope he is successful. However, I doubt his leadership. Despite his Vietnam record, this man is a whiny coward (in my view) and that concerns me -- greatly. Much.
5). If, somehow, we do not get the nod (and we may not) I beg of thee -- we must, at all costs, keep this movement alive. We ARE the...
Fiscally Responsible Progressive Wing of the Democratic Party
And yes, Kerry-Heinz, I'll consider leaving ya'll behind -- yes, an unswaying stalwart Dem like me....will do nothing more than vote for you -- you want us Dean folks to lift a finger for you? Overture, overture, again......make it good.
Overture, and sing, sing, sing. A promise or two would help.
Finally, speaking of "electability" -- Dems are having some suicidal thoughts, I guess. Dean, the Leftish Reagan Wild Card, is the ONLY one who could win (except maybe Edwards).
We must fight ever and harder and more relentlessly than ever.
Do you wanna volunteer for Kerry?
Exactly. The time is now, do what you can -- this could, be, perhaps, the only moment in our lives to Take Back America!
What can, what will, you do?
As I've stated in other posts on different topics:
NOW, FOLKS: IT-IS-TIME
We can win this, if you, YOU! -- will do all YOU can do.
1). This race is not over.
2). Even if Dean loses the nod, our movement is not over.
3). If indeed Dean loses the nod, we, WE, must keep this movement alive.
4). If Kerry gets the nod, his first test of leadership is to bring us in. I predict he might fail -- but if that happens (and I think we still could win -- and will, I pray) I hope he is successful. However, I doubt his leadership. Despite his Vietnam record, this man is a whiny coward (in my view) and that concerns me -- greatly. Much.
5). If, somehow, we do not get the nod (and we may not) I beg of thee -- we must, at all costs, keep this movement alive. We ARE the...
Fiscally Responsible Progressive Wing of the Democratic Party
And yes, Kerry-Heinz, I'll consider leaving ya'll behind -- yes, an unswaying stalwart Dem like me....will do nothing more than vote for you -- you want us Dean folks to lift a finger for you? Overture, overture, again......make it good.
Overture, and sing, sing, sing. A promise or two would help.
Finally, speaking of "electability" -- Dems are having some suicidal thoughts, I guess. Dean, the Leftish Reagan Wild Card, is the ONLY one who could win (except maybe Edwards).
We must fight ever and harder and more relentlessly than ever.
Do you wanna volunteer for Kerry?
Exactly. The time is now, do what you can -- this could, be, perhaps, the only moment in our lives to Take Back America!
What can, what will, you do?
As I've stated in other posts on different topics:
NOW, FOLKS: IT-IS-TIME
We can win this, if you, YOU! -- will do all YOU can do.
Thursday, January 29, 2004
Trippi Interview http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3910275/
Joe Trippi will be interviewed by Deborah Norville tonight at 9 pm EST on MSNBC.
UPDATE (Matt): Trippi will also be on Hardball tomorrow night. It should be noted in the Governor's post on the O-Blog that he hoped Trippi will later decide to return to the campaign as a strategic advisor.
UPDATE (Matt): Elegant, classy, honest, all around wonderful. Trippi says, "I love the grassroots," he still called the movement "we," he was clearly emotional about leaving but not at all bitter. He still says he firmly believes Dean will win and that this campaign is the nation's "last chance" to get things right. I remember the nights in the early campaign when I would get personal e-mails from Joe. I was amazed how someone in his position would actually respond to my individual thoughts. He impressed me so much then; he continues to impress me now.
UPDATE (Matt): Trippi will also be on Hardball tomorrow night. It should be noted in the Governor's post on the O-Blog that he hoped Trippi will later decide to return to the campaign as a strategic advisor.
UPDATE (Matt): Elegant, classy, honest, all around wonderful. Trippi says, "I love the grassroots," he still called the movement "we," he was clearly emotional about leaving but not at all bitter. He still says he firmly believes Dean will win and that this campaign is the nation's "last chance" to get things right. I remember the nights in the early campaign when I would get personal e-mails from Joe. I was amazed how someone in his position would actually respond to my individual thoughts. He impressed me so much then; he continues to impress me now.
Open Thread: SC Debate
Go nuts...
Here's hoping for a turnaround...
Grassroots Reacts to Changes @ DFA http://www.here-now.org/shows/2004/01/20040129_2.asp
Just in case folks missed it, DN's own Anna Brosovic, along with Colorado Deaner Tony Thompson, appeared on WBUR Radio's "Here & Now" earlier today. WBUR is the flagship NPR news station in Boston.
Here's the link. (Click on the LISTEN button -- segment begins about 4:30 minutes in).
Way to get media in Kerryland, guys -- and excellent job!
Here's the link. (Click on the LISTEN button -- segment begins about 4:30 minutes in).
Way to get media in Kerryland, guys -- and excellent job!
media visibility crusade - on the cheap
Here is how Dean can immediately get exposure in the Feb 3rd states without expensive ad buys:
This should keep his visibility high in the Feb 3 round and sustain momentum into Feb 7th. After Feb 3rd, though, he needs to spend all his time in the Feb 7th states to be on the ground making his case in all the local media (including making a direct pitch to the various newspaper editorial boards asking for their endorsement).
On Feb 4th, Dean needs to attend a meetup in Ann Arbor. Make it the biggest meetup ever - let's shatter the old New York record. Hey Michigan for dean, are you listening? Bombard Burlington with invites now, you guys! Send two people to drive to campaign HQ and camp out waiting for Dean to invite him in person!
After Feb 7th, he needs to maintain his visibility:
what else? Remember he has to be on the ground between Feb 3rd and 7th in Michigan and Wisconsin. IMHO it's a waste of his time to go stumping on foot before Feb 3rd, anywhere, because voter memory is short and voter fatigue will be high. If he maintains the media visibility campaign as suggested above then he can swoop in to the Feb 7th states and capitalize on the momentum. And that leaves the time before Feb 3rd to do the other things suggested above that are more unorthodox.
And note how the laundry list above relies heavily on contacts and endorsers and netroots supporters. That is by design. More suggestions along those lines are needed.
UPDATE: added some more bullet items. Keep the ideas flowing in comments!
- get on local talk radio. His Hannity appearance was excellent, and I heard he appeared on Hannity's TV show with Colmes last night to follow up. Deliberately target conservative media - that makes Dean look unafraid to challenge the right wing and also gets him broader access. Plus what other candidate is sticking it to the wingnuts? Certainly not Mr. Front Runner.
- Target national daytime television. Someone suggested Oprah (with both Howard and Judy!), other good avenues are Rosie O'Donnell and the Wayne Brady show. Lots of undecided voters are captive audiences at home during the day, and an informal apearance can give him a chance to make an appeal based on his record of accomplishment. It's those ordinary people watching TV at home that disproportionately are feeling the pain of the Bush economy and are wondering what these Democrats are doing for them.
- Stump in South Carolina with Jesse Jackson Jr and with Al Gore. Spend a whole day there talking to local church communities. Attend a service in Sunday and give out a yell for God.
- Target Hispanic media like Unavision - there must be daytime talk shows on the Hispanic networks where Dean can appear. Is Dean fluent in Spanish? If so, hold the entire interview in that language. If not, ask someone from Latinos for Dean to appear with him on the show.
- Get on late-night television. Dean should do at two of the following shows: Saturday Night Live, Late Show with Conan O'Brien, Letterman, Leno. Avoid cable talk shows since it's a more limited market (though do take up Chris Matthews on his open invitation to Dean for HardBall)
- Run grassroots-created ads on basic cable channels - USA Network and TNT for example are cheaper to buy ads on than primetime television, and they reach as many viewers. Launch a new bat dedicated to funding this effort. Use the best ideas from Project Deanlight and Switch2Dean in their entirety without any edits or changes - just dump them on those markets.
This should keep his visibility high in the Feb 3 round and sustain momentum into Feb 7th. After Feb 3rd, though, he needs to spend all his time in the Feb 7th states to be on the ground making his case in all the local media (including making a direct pitch to the various newspaper editorial boards asking for their endorsement).
On Feb 4th, Dean needs to attend a meetup in Ann Arbor. Make it the biggest meetup ever - let's shatter the old New York record. Hey Michigan for dean, are you listening? Bombard Burlington with invites now, you guys! Send two people to drive to campaign HQ and camp out waiting for Dean to invite him in person!
After Feb 7th, he needs to maintain his visibility:
- Appear on The West Wing on NBC by having Martin Sheen throw his weight around.
- Blog interviews. Dean needs to conduct a telephone interview with Daily Kos, Liberal Oasis, Atrios, and Blogging of the President. Dean also needs to take the time to personally answer the Dean Nation Interview Questions.
- Work together with MoveOn.org to utilize the best ideas of some of the ad winners from their recent Bush in 30 Seconds contest. Gore can help make a case for this and Rob Reiner can edit the films, along with recruiting the actual producers of the home-grown submitted films themselves. Put Heath Eiden and Karl Frisch in charge!
- More late-night television - finish off the ones he didn't get to before Feb 3rd.
what else? Remember he has to be on the ground between Feb 3rd and 7th in Michigan and Wisconsin. IMHO it's a waste of his time to go stumping on foot before Feb 3rd, anywhere, because voter memory is short and voter fatigue will be high. If he maintains the media visibility campaign as suggested above then he can swoop in to the Feb 7th states and capitalize on the momentum. And that leaves the time before Feb 3rd to do the other things suggested above that are more unorthodox.
And note how the laundry list above relies heavily on contacts and endorsers and netroots supporters. That is by design. More suggestions along those lines are needed.
UPDATE: added some more bullet items. Keep the ideas flowing in comments!
get Jesse Jackson and Al Gore to South Carolina with Dean
We need to be visible in South Carolina - and Gore and Jackson need to pull their weight. We don't need to win SC, but we MUST show up. Dean is the oinly candidate with a credible claim to appeal to the black vote, but repudiating SC will send the wrong symbolic message. Discuss.
UPDATE: and of course, get Bill Bradley out there in Michigan! Where are the endorsers?!
UPDATE: and of course, get Bill Bradley out there in Michigan! Where are the endorsers?!
General McClellan
A reporter called me to ask about Trippi. It’s part of the “picking of the bones” process.
While we were talking an analogy occurred to me, from the first Civil War. (I credit Vietnam as the second.) It came in historian Shelby Foote’s praise of George McClellan, the Union General fired in 1862. “He really built that Army,” Foote said, and much of what that Army did afterward was a tribute to McClellan.
No analogy is perfect. Trippi combined much of McClellan’s organizational brilliance with the imperfections of generals who succeeded him, like Ambrose Burnside and Joe Hooker. Trippi fought, hard, but the costs exceeded results in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Dean lacks the luxury of the years Lincoln spent in finding Grant. He also needs someone with Lee’s tactical brilliance – Grant really won by grinding the opponent down through superior forces.
And what of Roy Neel? I know him best from my work on the technology beat, where he ran the US Telephone Association during the boom. Yes, he’s an insider, but we need one now. He’ll be the first to tell you he ain’t Robert E. Lee.
But this is not a time for fighting. This is a time to make a case. And the case is there to be made. John Kerry was Michael Dukakis’ Lieutenant Governor, he is Teddy Kennedy’s junior Senator, he has never run anything bigger than a Senate office, he’s a defensive politician at a time that calls for offense. He is yesterday’s man. The last really courageous thing he did was throw away his medals at a VVAW rally. The definition of insanity is to repeatedly do the same thing and expect a different result. Kerry is the same thing.
Right now Democrats need to play offense, not defense. They need an executive, not a legislator. They need someone new, not someone old, borrowed or blue. When it comes to true electability and the personal qualities the nation needs there is just no comparison. Dean was making this case last week in New Hampshire. Neel can press it.
Most of us, meanwhile, are clear on who and what we’re working for. We’re working on making Howard Dean our President, for to take this country back from the idiots now in charge of it. It’s the Union, not the General, who matters to us foot soldiers.
Your orders, General Neel?
Where we stand http://www.notgeniuses.com/archives/001618.html
Go read this (lengthy email) from a Dean supporter, to a Dean supporter, that bluntly and frankly discusses where we stand. It makes a rational and principled case for why we need to continue and persevere, without any rose-colored Kool Aid drinking whatsoever. Read it in full.
NYT on Trippi departure http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/29/politics/campaign/29DEAN.html?ex=1390712400&en=1661d9184fa00c75&ei=5007&partner=USERLAND
This is the definitive article so far on the Trippi departure, including some hints that the shakeup wasn't as smooth as it appeared beneath the surface. I'm really just posting it for completeness, but I've decided to focus forward from here.
UPDATE: well, I guess I should state my opinion on the matter. I agree with the assessment that Trippi is a brilliant tactician - but a terrible strategist. (definitions here and here). Trppi recognized the potential of the netroots, and his contribution was to let it breathe freely and grow on its own. But he never really tapped into it for ideas. The O-blog contributes nothing to strategy, unlike here at Dean Nation where all we talk about is strategy. But the only idea that they ever ran with was embracing Meetup after we promoted it. And even that embrace ultimately fizzled down to just crowing about the number registered; ask yourself - why wasn't Dean at the Iowa or NH meetup before the primaries?
If the campaign was an internet startup, then Trippi was the brilliant CEO who founded the company. But the campaign has grown far beyond that stage, and we need someone with experience on the grown-up, experienced side of the fence. I'm very pleased at the choice of Neel and I think the timing was overdue.
UPDATE: well, I guess I should state my opinion on the matter. I agree with the assessment that Trippi is a brilliant tactician - but a terrible strategist. (definitions here and here). Trppi recognized the potential of the netroots, and his contribution was to let it breathe freely and grow on its own. But he never really tapped into it for ideas. The O-blog contributes nothing to strategy, unlike here at Dean Nation where all we talk about is strategy. But the only idea that they ever ran with was embracing Meetup after we promoted it. And even that embrace ultimately fizzled down to just crowing about the number registered; ask yourself - why wasn't Dean at the Iowa or NH meetup before the primaries?
If the campaign was an internet startup, then Trippi was the brilliant CEO who founded the company. But the campaign has grown far beyond that stage, and we need someone with experience on the grown-up, experienced side of the fence. I'm very pleased at the choice of Neel and I think the timing was overdue.
Dean's Money Advantage Dwindles http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A58369-2004Jan28.html?nav=hptop_ts
The money situation is indeed tight. Still no confirmation of the $5m rumor, but it is clear that the campaign overspent in Iowa and New Hampshire. Given that we are entering a media-centered phase of the campaign, this is a bad thing. This WaPo article sheds a lot of information on how the fiscal issue affects the primary strategy for Feb 3rd and 7th:
Rivals including front-runner John F. Kerry are buying TV ads in South Carolina and other states holding primaries or caucuses Tuesday, but the former Vermont governor has chosen to forgo further advertising in this round, focusing instead on the Feb. 7 caucuses in Michigan and Washington state, campaign officials said. The decision marks a notable shift in fortunes for an innovative candidate who revolutionized fundraising via the Internet and led all Democrats in 2003 by collecting nearly $41 million.
"Clearly his decision to spend heavily in New Hampshire was at the expense of not spending in Arizona, New Mexico and South Carolina," said Evan Tracey of TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks media expenditures. "You are essentially leaving the paid media field to your opponents."
[...]
Dean, according to campaign aides, has calculated that he can remain credible by picking up enough votes to win some delegates in the Feb. 3 states, even without renewed advertising or a first-place finish.
Dean expects to run strongly in Michigan and Washington, a Dean aide said. What's more, in contrast to primary contests that require heavy spending on TV ads, caucuses involve more ground-level work, such as identifying supporters and getting them to caucus sites. Much of this work can be performed by volunteers, enabling a candidate to preserve cash.
Dean must win some contests in the next two weeks "or he'll have trouble raising money in the future," said Steve Weissman, associate director of the Campaign Finance Institute, a nonpartisan group based in Washington.
[...]
Kerry, the winner in Iowa and New Hampshire, has bought TV time in all seven Feb. 3 states. He also is enjoying the wave of free news coverage that accompanies front-runner status.
"I don't think everybody has the capacity to fight in every state," said Dean campaign chair Steve Grossman. "We are going to use our resources wisely." Dean, he said, "must win a state somewhere" by Feb. 7.
media navel-gazing http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A58426-2004Jan28_2.html
The media discovers it has the power to affect people's opinions. In other news, Diane Sawyer followed up on her "Dean aren't you really a raging lunatic? Judy, Isn't Dean a manic psycho?" interview by conducting an investigation into the Dean Rebel Yell coverage. She concludes that the coverage was unfair. I'm sure the New Hampshire voters are paying attention.
These attacks made Dean stronger. I don't hold a grudge in that sense - and I want Kerry to undergo the same trial by fire so he too becomes stronger. I only object to the media's sudden interest in meta-analysis. Drop the pretense, guys, and go for your narratives of the hour. We'll cope... and win.
These attacks made Dean stronger. I don't hold a grudge in that sense - and I want Kerry to undergo the same trial by fire so he too becomes stronger. I only object to the media's sudden interest in meta-analysis. Drop the pretense, guys, and go for your narratives of the hour. We'll cope... and win.
voters are rational actors
As I posted yesterday, it's tempting to take shots at Kerry. But drawing all the contrasts in the world between Kerry's legislative record and Dean's executive one wont change the simple fact that Kerry won Iowa and NH fair and square. Telling Democrats who have chosen Kerry that they are fools, or dittoheads is not going to help our cause.
Worse, it might damage it. The last thing we need is to re-entrench the perception of Dean as attracting idoelogical crazies and cultists who sneer down their noses at the average Joe. I'm strictly a "People are rational actors" guy.
Lets focus on telling the campaign what they should do right to draw people, not telling people what they are doing wrong to get them to switch. There are a lot of other oters out there who are uncommitted who are more fertile ground for Dean's ideas than the soft support that switched to Kerry.
Forget Kerry. Forget Trippi. Focus on Dean, and how to get this campaign back on message so it's the same one that all of reading this blog were drawn to last year.
Worse, it might damage it. The last thing we need is to re-entrench the perception of Dean as attracting idoelogical crazies and cultists who sneer down their noses at the average Joe. I'm strictly a "People are rational actors" guy.
Lets focus on telling the campaign what they should do right to draw people, not telling people what they are doing wrong to get them to switch. There are a lot of other oters out there who are uncommitted who are more fertile ground for Dean's ideas than the soft support that switched to Kerry.
Forget Kerry. Forget Trippi. Focus on Dean, and how to get this campaign back on message so it's the same one that all of reading this blog were drawn to last year.
open thread
decompress!
Wednesday, January 28, 2004
TMS Continues Ad Effort http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4089404/
MSNBC: "The ad team of McMahon and Mark Squier will remain on the campaign, but they have been told to build a broader ad team that includes creative input from Hollywood and New York specialists to produce better spots, a senior official said on condition of anonymity."
I'm not sure this is a good idea. Thoughts?
I'm not sure this is a good idea. Thoughts?
ABC News: Dean Machine Shake-Up http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/Politics/WorldNewsTonight/Dean_Campaign_Changes_040128-1.html
ABC News has an interesting story on the Trippi removal. Selections:
In an emotional meeting with members of the Burlington, Vt.-based staff this afternoon, Trippi thanked them for their hard work and vowed to continue to fight for Dean's candidacy.
Dean was in the room and acknowledged Trippi but the two did not shake hands, according to a staff member who was present.
...
Trippi ruled the campaign's organization with an iron fist, hiring political and field staffers — many of them quite young — who were loyal to him. In the process, he clashed with members of the Vermont guard loyal to Dean, like Kate O'Connor, Dean's longtime aide, and Bob Rogan, the campaign's deputy chief of staff.
...
Dean was said by several sources who are close to him to have been very upset by what happened in Iowa, and blamed Trippi's staff, in part, for being disorganized and for running poor-quality television advertisements.
Dean and Trippi also had disagreements over spending. Dean is very tight with his budgets and would often veto ideas Trippi proposed.
The relationship between Dean and Trippi has been somewhat strained in the intervening week, according to sources loyal to both Trippi and Dean.
Dean limited Trippi's role in New Hampshire, told him to return to Burlington, stay off television, and the candidate essentially transferred the campaign's executive authority to his New Hampshire state director, Karen Hicks.
...
From Dean for America...
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
January 28, 2004
Statements by Governor Howard Dean and Joe Trippi
BURLINGTON--Dean for America released the following statements tonight:
Democratic presidential candidate Governor Howard Dean, M.D., issued the following statement:
"I am deeply grateful to Joe Trippi, who has decided to leave the campaign. Joe has made enormous contributions not just to our campaign but to American politics -- revolutionizing the way in which people are brought into the democratic process and helping hundreds of thousands of people to believe in political change again.
"I am pleased to announce that Roy Neel will be relocating to Burlington to assume the position of Chief Executive Officer of the campaign effective immediately. Roy brings enormous experience both in management and national politics. He will be an invaluable resource to our campaign.
"Last night the people of New Hampshire reaffirmed that their strong support for change and for a campaign based on standing up for what is right and delivering results not rhetoric.
"This campaign is a marathon not a sprint. I am committed to carrying our campaign through the coming weeks to primaries and caucuses all across the country. We will continue to offer the Democratic Party a candidacy based on courage and conviction and a campaign based on hope, not fear.
"This campaign is about all of us. I am grateful for what we have done together so far but our work is far from done. Now we must redouble our efforts, not simply to win the nomination but to change America."
* * *
Dean for America Campaign Manager Joe Trippi released the following statement:
"Dear Friends,
"The Governor has asked Roy Neel to come in as CEO of the campaign, and I have resigned as campaign manager.
"I've always believed that the most important thing was to change our country and our politics.
"I'm proud of all of you and the work we have done together. I may be out of the campaign but I’m not out of the fight.
"Don't give up -- stay with Howard Dean's cause to change America.
"Thank you.
"Joe Trippi"
-- 30 --
Shakeup http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040128/D80C37DG1.html
MSNBC is reporting that campaign manager Joe Trippi has been reassigned. Gore's Roy Neel to take over campaign.
Developing story... Click link above for initial story. Thanks to Mike on the zonk board for the link.
UPDATE (Aziz): another link just posted with a lot more information. Here's info on Neel:
Neel, Gore's former senatorial chief of staff, served as chief executive of the U.S. Telecom Association in Washington before working on Gore's 2000 presidential campaign. Neel was named to head Gore's transition team in anticipation of the former vice president winning the White House.
sources say that Dean asked Trippi to stay on the payroll, but Trippi decided to leave. "I may be out of the campaign, but I'm not out of the fight," Trippi was quoted as saying.
UPDATE (MATT B): Here is the O-Blog posting on Neel from 1/7/2004.
audio: Dean on Sean Hannity show (1/28/04) http://abcrad.wmod.llnwd.net/a49/external/0102cABAAHQAAAAcDle6yKhvE1c0LnEJnNwFajD8QD92LOnSD/hannity/dean012704.wma
I have to say, that Dean's apearance on Hannity last night (after Kucinich, who also went on TV later that evening) was fantastic. Hannity endorsed Dean, claiming he'd be defeated against Bush, and Dean used the Reagan analogy, which was a brilliant counterstroke. Dean managed to meet Hannity on almost every point with a better answer straight from his stump speeches.
The man was made for talk radio. He needs to get out there NOW. We need him on the Chris Baker show here in Houston. weneed him on YOUR local talk radio, also - chime in and list your local conservative radio hosts wo fantasize that the are the next Hannity or Limbaugh. Let's get Dean on the shows!
The man was made for talk radio. He needs to get out there NOW. We need him on the Chris Baker show here in Houston. weneed him on YOUR local talk radio, also - chime in and list your local conservative radio hosts wo fantasize that the are the next Hannity or Limbaugh. Let's get Dean on the shows!
Dean on the Sean Hannity show
Should Dean compete for Feb 3? http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Politics/ap20040128_1138.html
This ABC article details the difference of opinion in the campaign today about strategy. Dean wants to carry on to the Feb 3 states, and his staff is against the idea, preferring to lie low (as Chris Suellentrop speculates in Slate). What do you think? open thread ...
Gored http://www.cjr.org/blog/archives/cat_distortion.asp#000063
via Campaign Desk:
Most of the questions asked in the official exit poll for the New Hampshire primary today are routine: Are you liberal or conservative, black or white, male or female, and, by the way, how did you vote?
But then out of nowhere comes this sucker punch: "Regardless of how you voted today, do you think Howard Dean has the temperament to serve effectively as president?" No other questions about specific candidates were asked.
[...]
Reading from an official statement, a harried spokesperson for the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, Fox and the AP that administered the poll, told Campaign Desk: "Dean's temperament has been much discussed throughout the campaign. He fell from a significant lead in New Hampshire. Did questions about his temperament after the Iowa speech contribute to that? The exit poll would be remiss if it didn't try to find out."
The spokeswoman stressed that because this was an exit poll, it wouldn't affect New Hampshire's results. She's wrong; the very existence of the question, first reported this afternoon by Howard Kurtz at WashingtonPost.com, could well sway late voters.
More important, what about South Carolinians, Missourians, Arizonans, and all the rest who have yet to vote? Even if few startled New Hampshire voters answer "no" to that loaded question, it seems certain to make news -- and to supply ammunition to Dean opponents.
Trippi in trouble? http://www.sevendaysvt.com/insidetrack/
An article from Seven Days VT has some pretty astonishing gossip from inside sources in Dean's campaign:
Frankly, the few ads I have seen were terrible. And I have been long incomfortable with the seeming conflict of interest in having TMS do the ads when the T was also the campaign manager. How could an objective decision get made in that scenario about the quality of the ads? This is all the more critical since we have entered the media-centric phase of the campaign.
But should Joe take the blame for the Iowa and NH losses? I don't know. Joe deserves credit for the Internet aspect of things but we all know that the campaign needs to grow beyond that - while keeping its character intact. In Iowa, the campaign did grow out into the real world, but it became something unrecognizable in the process.
Another issue that needs to be addressed is the burn rate. Yes, Dean has raised more money than anyone else - but how has it been spent? On orange hats? Trippi's strategy was always to concentrate on Iowa and NH for the win and coast to victory. And I did get the feeling that fundraising was indeed being taken almost for granted (and this is the real reason why the mailing list memberships have hit a plateau.)
Campaign staff shakeups are common to all the other campaigns - most notably front-runner Kerry. I don't know enough to have an opinion on whether Joe deserves the axe for Iowa and NH. If anything, I'm biased against it out of sheer personality admiration. But winning is more important. What do you think?
Seven Days has learned that the disaster in Hawkeye Country last week caused a major realignment of Dean for America’s campaign hierarchy. Sources tell Seven Days that Campaign Manager Joe Trippi, the colorful Internet whiz who led the longshot Vermonter’s meteoric rise, has had his own wings plucked.
Dr. Dean, sources say, has taken control of the campaign checkbook from the Trippster and handed it to Deputy Campaign Manager Bob Rogan.
Rogan once served on Dean’s gubernatorial staff, before leaving for a management job at Vermont’s largest electric utility. He came back last year for the presidential bid. Now he and longtime Dean aide Kate O’Connor are steering the Dean campaign warship. There are clear indications that if Dean limps on after New Hampshire, Joltin’ Joe Trippi will be gone.
So, too, will Trippi’s Washington, D.C., consulting firm Trippi, McMahon & Squier. Steve McMahon has been producing Howard Dean for Governor TV commercials for a decade. The spots he did for Ho-Ho in Iowa are cited by grumbling Dean supporters as a factor in Dean’s poor showing there.
Frankly, the few ads I have seen were terrible. And I have been long incomfortable with the seeming conflict of interest in having TMS do the ads when the T was also the campaign manager. How could an objective decision get made in that scenario about the quality of the ads? This is all the more critical since we have entered the media-centric phase of the campaign.
But should Joe take the blame for the Iowa and NH losses? I don't know. Joe deserves credit for the Internet aspect of things but we all know that the campaign needs to grow beyond that - while keeping its character intact. In Iowa, the campaign did grow out into the real world, but it became something unrecognizable in the process.
Another issue that needs to be addressed is the burn rate. Yes, Dean has raised more money than anyone else - but how has it been spent? On orange hats? Trippi's strategy was always to concentrate on Iowa and NH for the win and coast to victory. And I did get the feeling that fundraising was indeed being taken almost for granted (and this is the real reason why the mailing list memberships have hit a plateau.)
Campaign staff shakeups are common to all the other campaigns - most notably front-runner Kerry. I don't know enough to have an opinion on whether Joe deserves the axe for Iowa and NH. If anything, I'm biased against it out of sheer personality admiration. But winning is more important. What do you think?
forget Kerry - it's domestic policy, stupid
There's all sorts of juicy things you could sink your teeth into about Kerry - like this telling anecdote from Chris Suellentrop in Slate:
But the simple fact is that the race between Dean and Kerry is about Dean. We need to draw people to Dean first. Most of Kerry's support is relatively new, and part of the reason Dean lost support in Iowa was because he went negative. Let Clark (and Lehane) focus their fire on Kerry - but and emphasise that Dean not only knows what the X means, but he's got Jesse Jackson Jr. to vouch for it.
All those endorsements are garbage unless they are leveraged. We need simple commercials - Jesse Jackson Jr. Talking frankly about Dean and race, Gore talking frankly about Dean and Iraq - and Dean himself talking about what he has to offer, his success with Dr. Dynasaur and Success by Six. It's the domestic polcy, stupid.
Forget about Bush Lied and 16 words. Focus instead on the plight of our veterans who have to buy their own plane tickets home on leave and how their benefits are being drastically cut.
Forget about the federal deficit and talk about the raised property taxes which negate the "middle class tax cut" (say it with the sneer quotes). Mention payroll tax cuts.
Dean often talks about how Americans feel left out of the political process. He needs to start showing those people how their concerns are being addressed. It's not about Iraq or deficits or any other long-range national issues. It's about the here and now. It's about consistent job loss. It;s about corporate tax breaks as a reward for moving workers overseas. It's not about the big picture, it's about the facts on the ground.
And the voters will make the distinction between Dean and Kerry on their own, inexorably, inevitably.
Is the campaign listening anymore? I don't know. Joe Trippi hasn't left a comment on Dean Nation in many long months. The official blog remains an echo chamber of motivational speeches and dry logistical coordinating info. I don't know if they even remember we are here. But we are here, and we need to make noise, and fight to get our campaign back on track.
In Manchester, Kerry gave a touching speech about the importance of veterans and of "keeping faith with those who wore the uniform." As soon as it was over, a woman stood up and said, I'm not a veteran. What are you going to do for the average person? At a firehouse in Hampton yesterday, a man told Kerry that he thinks it's unfair that people say a New Englander can't connect with people from varying backgrounds. And to prove that you can do it, he says, explain the importance of the icon on my hat. Kerry is mystified. "The Latin? The Ten?" he asks. Malcolm X, the man explains.
But the simple fact is that the race between Dean and Kerry is about Dean. We need to draw people to Dean first. Most of Kerry's support is relatively new, and part of the reason Dean lost support in Iowa was because he went negative. Let Clark (and Lehane) focus their fire on Kerry - but and emphasise that Dean not only knows what the X means, but he's got Jesse Jackson Jr. to vouch for it.
All those endorsements are garbage unless they are leveraged. We need simple commercials - Jesse Jackson Jr. Talking frankly about Dean and race, Gore talking frankly about Dean and Iraq - and Dean himself talking about what he has to offer, his success with Dr. Dynasaur and Success by Six. It's the domestic polcy, stupid.
Forget about Bush Lied and 16 words. Focus instead on the plight of our veterans who have to buy their own plane tickets home on leave and how their benefits are being drastically cut.
Forget about the federal deficit and talk about the raised property taxes which negate the "middle class tax cut" (say it with the sneer quotes). Mention payroll tax cuts.
Dean often talks about how Americans feel left out of the political process. He needs to start showing those people how their concerns are being addressed. It's not about Iraq or deficits or any other long-range national issues. It's about the here and now. It's about consistent job loss. It;s about corporate tax breaks as a reward for moving workers overseas. It's not about the big picture, it's about the facts on the ground.
And the voters will make the distinction between Dean and Kerry on their own, inexorably, inevitably.
Is the campaign listening anymore? I don't know. Joe Trippi hasn't left a comment on Dean Nation in many long months. The official blog remains an echo chamber of motivational speeches and dry logistical coordinating info. I don't know if they even remember we are here. But we are here, and we need to make noise, and fight to get our campaign back on track.
tv ads open thread
let this one be just for your TV ideas...
Winning On Electability
Here is what killed us last night.
New Hampshire Democrats bought the idea that the Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party is, by definition, its more liberal wing, thus its least-electable wing.
Kerry beat us among moderates, and he pounded us on electability.
Over the next week we're going to get a lot of help in taking him down. The media is going to provide much of it. Kerry was Michael Dukakis' Lieutenant Governor. His voting record is more liberal than Teddy Kennedy's. He has never held executive office. Etc. etc. etc.
Wesley Clark and John Edwards are going to help us in this. They are going to direct all their fire on Kerry. This is a good thing.
Governor Dean's ads, meanwhile, are going to start sounding more like the speeches he gave last week in New Hampshire. Overtly or not, they will make the points I made here last night. We are going to run to Kerry's right, on Dean's record, and take back the moderates.
It then becomes crucial that the anti-Kerry vote not go to Clark or Edwards, and that we take the "electability" issue back as well.
That will be even easier.
Start with extravagant praise. John Edwards is a great lawyer, what we wouldn't give to see him as Attorney General instead of John Ashcroft. Wesley Clark is a great military thinker, what we wouldn't give to see him as Defense Secretary instead of Donald Rumsfeld. And Joe Lieberman, wouldn't he make a great Chief Justice when William Rehnquist retires?
But none of these men, as worthy as they are, has any more chance of being elected President in November than Al Sharpton or Dennis Kucinich.
At some point this spring, they will all run through the $45 million they are allowed to spend under the campaign laws. At that point, they will go under virtual house arrest. They will not be able to buy ads, they will not be able to travel, they won't even be able to pay their Internet bills.
That is the law. Bill Clinton used it to hammer Bob Dole in 1996. George W. Bush used it to hammer Al Gore in 2000.
Today Bush has 200 million dollars ready to shock and awe us with the largest ad campaign in political history. He will spend that money turning Edwards into a Breck Girl, Clark into Beetle Bailey, or Lieberman into the devil himself.
The only way Democrats can compete this summer is for 2 million people, or more, to match Bush's $200 million with $200 million of their own. Our campaign can do that. Theirs can't. We would be proud to serve with any one of these worthy gentlemen, but the law as written, the law we will follow through this November, gives them no hope of victory, none.
Run to the right, become the only hope, and the nomination is ours.
Then comes the hard part.
New Hampshire Democrats bought the idea that the Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party is, by definition, its more liberal wing, thus its least-electable wing.
Kerry beat us among moderates, and he pounded us on electability.
Over the next week we're going to get a lot of help in taking him down. The media is going to provide much of it. Kerry was Michael Dukakis' Lieutenant Governor. His voting record is more liberal than Teddy Kennedy's. He has never held executive office. Etc. etc. etc.
Wesley Clark and John Edwards are going to help us in this. They are going to direct all their fire on Kerry. This is a good thing.
Governor Dean's ads, meanwhile, are going to start sounding more like the speeches he gave last week in New Hampshire. Overtly or not, they will make the points I made here last night. We are going to run to Kerry's right, on Dean's record, and take back the moderates.
It then becomes crucial that the anti-Kerry vote not go to Clark or Edwards, and that we take the "electability" issue back as well.
That will be even easier.
Start with extravagant praise. John Edwards is a great lawyer, what we wouldn't give to see him as Attorney General instead of John Ashcroft. Wesley Clark is a great military thinker, what we wouldn't give to see him as Defense Secretary instead of Donald Rumsfeld. And Joe Lieberman, wouldn't he make a great Chief Justice when William Rehnquist retires?
But none of these men, as worthy as they are, has any more chance of being elected President in November than Al Sharpton or Dennis Kucinich.
At some point this spring, they will all run through the $45 million they are allowed to spend under the campaign laws. At that point, they will go under virtual house arrest. They will not be able to buy ads, they will not be able to travel, they won't even be able to pay their Internet bills.
That is the law. Bill Clinton used it to hammer Bob Dole in 1996. George W. Bush used it to hammer Al Gore in 2000.
Today Bush has 200 million dollars ready to shock and awe us with the largest ad campaign in political history. He will spend that money turning Edwards into a Breck Girl, Clark into Beetle Bailey, or Lieberman into the devil himself.
The only way Democrats can compete this summer is for 2 million people, or more, to match Bush's $200 million with $200 million of their own. Our campaign can do that. Theirs can't. We would be proud to serve with any one of these worthy gentlemen, but the law as written, the law we will follow through this November, gives them no hope of victory, none.
Run to the right, become the only hope, and the nomination is ours.
Then comes the hard part.
radio ads open thread
Let's brainstorm! what would make the perfect radio ad? tailored to which state?
The Anti-Kerry http://www.deanforamerica.com/site/TR?pg=personal&fr_id=1090&px=1179278
When I started this blog on August 30th 2002, John Kerry was the front-runner and Howard Dean was this niche candidate who attracted me by his ideas. When Dean was crowned the front-runner by the media at the close of 2003, it was by definition a peak. But the peak gets the most exposure, and the withering media barrage that Dean has faced - and survived - has strengthened the campaign. It is now Kerry's turn to face the same barrage - which he avoided all during 2002 even though he had front-runner status, and all during 2003 when he was given up on for dead. And that means we get some breathing room. We'd rather have victory, but it's never bad to be given time to re-assess.
Yesterday, a governor of a small rural state lost in New Hampshire to a Massachusetts Senator. The parallels to Clinton in 1992 are strong, but they end today. From here on out, it is Dean making his own history. Clinton lost the first ten contests and regrouped in the South. Dean can't afford to lose ten contests and his natural base is the West. We need to focus on how Dean can win, and today we must stop looking at 1992.
Dean is on familiar ground again - while seasoned analysts like Kos have written him off, I think they are unconsciously) guilty of drinking the media self-importance Kool Aid. Even if Kos is right that the media has an interest to "end this thing as quickly as possible" (I disagree - the media thrives on frontrunner-underdog narratives), it's the height of cynicism to suggest that the voters truly are irrelevant. The primary is ours, not theirs.
I see a very simple scenario ahead. Dean is the anti-Kerry. Only these two candidates have the resources to compete against Bush. Edwards and Clark have celebrity status but the media oxygen has been sucked away - they rate editorials and analysis, but very little actual coverage. Watch for E and C to start sharpening attacks on one of the front-runners and leaving the other alone - my guess is K/E and D/C form "gentlemen's alliances" which may translate to actual Veep roles after the nomination - but don't bet that any of these four will drop out until the final bell (barring some disaster such as Edwards losing badly in SC).
From here, it's a media war. Not candidates doing barbecues and high school speeches (though those will of course continue), but a classic ad blitz on radio and television. In this war, the Dean grassroots (organized through the Dean Commons) will act in parallel to the Dean Unions (especially in Wisconsin and Michigan). The opponent is the well-oiled, and highly experienced, establishment machine that Kerry inherits. Either of these are a force to be reckoned with, and we will see K and D pick up states delivered to each by reasonable, neither tight nor massive, margins. The battle will last all the way to the convention and victory is directly related to effort on the ground, precinct by precinct, state by state, delegate by delegate.
That means it is up to us. Why hasn't that bat broken $700K yet? Dean busted his arse for two years in New Hampshire. Amanda and Jason and Anna froze theirs going from house to house, street to street, door to door. What have we done? NOT ENOUGH.
Yesterday, a governor of a small rural state lost in New Hampshire to a Massachusetts Senator. The parallels to Clinton in 1992 are strong, but they end today. From here on out, it is Dean making his own history. Clinton lost the first ten contests and regrouped in the South. Dean can't afford to lose ten contests and his natural base is the West. We need to focus on how Dean can win, and today we must stop looking at 1992.
Dean is on familiar ground again - while seasoned analysts like Kos have written him off, I think they are unconsciously) guilty of drinking the media self-importance Kool Aid. Even if Kos is right that the media has an interest to "end this thing as quickly as possible" (I disagree - the media thrives on frontrunner-underdog narratives), it's the height of cynicism to suggest that the voters truly are irrelevant. The primary is ours, not theirs.
I see a very simple scenario ahead. Dean is the anti-Kerry. Only these two candidates have the resources to compete against Bush. Edwards and Clark have celebrity status but the media oxygen has been sucked away - they rate editorials and analysis, but very little actual coverage. Watch for E and C to start sharpening attacks on one of the front-runners and leaving the other alone - my guess is K/E and D/C form "gentlemen's alliances" which may translate to actual Veep roles after the nomination - but don't bet that any of these four will drop out until the final bell (barring some disaster such as Edwards losing badly in SC).
From here, it's a media war. Not candidates doing barbecues and high school speeches (though those will of course continue), but a classic ad blitz on radio and television. In this war, the Dean grassroots (organized through the Dean Commons) will act in parallel to the Dean Unions (especially in Wisconsin and Michigan). The opponent is the well-oiled, and highly experienced, establishment machine that Kerry inherits. Either of these are a force to be reckoned with, and we will see K and D pick up states delivered to each by reasonable, neither tight nor massive, margins. The battle will last all the way to the convention and victory is directly related to effort on the ground, precinct by precinct, state by state, delegate by delegate.
That means it is up to us. Why hasn't that bat broken $700K yet? Dean busted his arse for two years in New Hampshire. Amanda and Jason and Anna froze theirs going from house to house, street to street, door to door. What have we done? NOT ENOUGH.
Daily Review
How long will Dean fight on
New Hampshire Focusing on Iraq, Health Care and Economy
Howard Dean the man for the job
Dean Sees Silver Lining in Second Place
Dean 'very pleased' with New Hampshire finish
Kerry wins again
Florida could play big role in nomination
New Hampshire Focusing on Iraq, Health Care and Economy
Howard Dean the man for the job
Dean Sees Silver Lining in Second Place
Dean 'very pleased' with New Hampshire finish
Kerry wins again
Florida could play big role in nomination
Tuesday, January 27, 2004
How We Will Beat Kerry
This candidate is amazing. Howard Dean is better than us, better even than his campaign managers. He is a brilliant politician.
All week Dean has been telling us how to beat John Kerry. We haven’t been listening. Kerry won Iowa by out-organizing us, and won New Hampshire by stealing our message.
He will not win again.
Howard Dean has shown us the way, in the debates, and in his town hall meetings. We can easily run to Kerry's right, on all the key issues, not just using rhetoric, but with hard facts. It comes down to these three key points:
1. Get this, South Carolina. Dean was FOR Gulf War I. Kerry voted AGAINST. Saddam Hussein was in Kuwait, Bush I had the approval of the UN, he had the entire world on our side and John F. Kerry voted NO. Then, when Bush II had no case, Kerry voted aye, and now tries to pretend he didn't. He’s a fraud on national security.
2. Listen up, Missouri. Dean can BALANCE A BUDGET, Kerry never has. John Kerry voted FOR this record deficit, both for tax cuts and spending increases. Want to visit Canada, Australia, Europe or Japan? YOU CAN’T AFFORD IT. That’s just the first step in a rapid process of economic destruction that can only be reversed by moving to balanced budgets, as in the 1990s. Howard Dean has balanced budgets. He will balance this one. He's a grown-up.
3. Are you hearing this in Arizona? Dean can PASS his health care program. Kerry can’t. Dean’s plan is simple. Buy insurance for the neediest, sell it to the nearly-needy. No big bureaucracy, no change in your present coverage. He did it in Vermont, which is no wealthier than the average state. Kerry wants a BIG GOVERNMENT PROGRAM for health care, another HillaryCare plan that won’t pass and thus won’t solve anything.
The good news, troops, is we will have a lot of help all next week. Edwards will be in South Carolina, hammering home these same points. Clark will be in Oklahoma. Even Joe Lieberman will be saying this in Delaware.
Yes, we need some new ads, and some new literature, but these are the facts. These are just the points Dean hammered home on the stump this last week. The problem is it didn’t sink in. No candidate from Massachusetts has ever lost the New Hampshire primary, and that streak continues.
So John Kerry tonight takes his place alongside President Henry Cabot Lodge, President Edward M. Kennedy, President Michael Dukakis and President Paul Tsongas. Fine.
We have him right where we want him.
Now let’s go out, prove the case, win the marathon, then go after George W. Bush.
All week Dean has been telling us how to beat John Kerry. We haven’t been listening. Kerry won Iowa by out-organizing us, and won New Hampshire by stealing our message.
He will not win again.
Howard Dean has shown us the way, in the debates, and in his town hall meetings. We can easily run to Kerry's right, on all the key issues, not just using rhetoric, but with hard facts. It comes down to these three key points:
1. Get this, South Carolina. Dean was FOR Gulf War I. Kerry voted AGAINST. Saddam Hussein was in Kuwait, Bush I had the approval of the UN, he had the entire world on our side and John F. Kerry voted NO. Then, when Bush II had no case, Kerry voted aye, and now tries to pretend he didn't. He’s a fraud on national security.
2. Listen up, Missouri. Dean can BALANCE A BUDGET, Kerry never has. John Kerry voted FOR this record deficit, both for tax cuts and spending increases. Want to visit Canada, Australia, Europe or Japan? YOU CAN’T AFFORD IT. That’s just the first step in a rapid process of economic destruction that can only be reversed by moving to balanced budgets, as in the 1990s. Howard Dean has balanced budgets. He will balance this one. He's a grown-up.
3. Are you hearing this in Arizona? Dean can PASS his health care program. Kerry can’t. Dean’s plan is simple. Buy insurance for the neediest, sell it to the nearly-needy. No big bureaucracy, no change in your present coverage. He did it in Vermont, which is no wealthier than the average state. Kerry wants a BIG GOVERNMENT PROGRAM for health care, another HillaryCare plan that won’t pass and thus won’t solve anything.
The good news, troops, is we will have a lot of help all next week. Edwards will be in South Carolina, hammering home these same points. Clark will be in Oklahoma. Even Joe Lieberman will be saying this in Delaware.
Yes, we need some new ads, and some new literature, but these are the facts. These are just the points Dean hammered home on the stump this last week. The problem is it didn’t sink in. No candidate from Massachusetts has ever lost the New Hampshire primary, and that streak continues.
So John Kerry tonight takes his place alongside President Henry Cabot Lodge, President Edward M. Kennedy, President Michael Dukakis and President Paul Tsongas. Fine.
We have him right where we want him.
Now let’s go out, prove the case, win the marathon, then go after George W. Bush.
Do You Want to Stand Up, or Sit Down? http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/NH/index.html
Based on the early results, I'd say finishing a strong second in New Hampshire is just what the doctor ordered for Dean. The pundits predicted his collapse after Iowa, and New Hampshire voters have repudiated their predictions. While this isn't a huge victory for Dean, it puts him squarely in position with Kerry as the two major candidates in this race.
Some interesting exit polling from CNN:
29% of New Hampshire voters said that "standing up for beliefs" was their top quality in a candidate. Dean led all candidates on that score (47% to Kerry's 20%). That was the top quality voters were looking for in their candidate. Another interesting take was on the candidate "most likely to shake things up" - again Dean overwhelmingly (44% to Clark's 14% with Edwards at 13% and Kerry at 12%).
What this polling tells me is that voters are afraid. They're afraid of George Bush, and they're voting for Kerry because 60% of them think he's "most electable." For my money, a leader who "stands up for his beliefs" and "shakes things up" is exactly the candidate who is "electable."
Let's all work together for first on February 3rd!
Some interesting exit polling from CNN:
29% of New Hampshire voters said that "standing up for beliefs" was their top quality in a candidate. Dean led all candidates on that score (47% to Kerry's 20%). That was the top quality voters were looking for in their candidate. Another interesting take was on the candidate "most likely to shake things up" - again Dean overwhelmingly (44% to Clark's 14% with Edwards at 13% and Kerry at 12%).
What this polling tells me is that voters are afraid. They're afraid of George Bush, and they're voting for Kerry because 60% of them think he's "most electable." For my money, a leader who "stands up for his beliefs" and "shakes things up" is exactly the candidate who is "electable."
Let's all work together for first on February 3rd!
How We Will Beat Kerry
"A Crushing Defeat"
Chris Matthews just said that Kerry will win by double digits and it will be "a crushing defeat" for Howard Dean. Sen. Kerry addresses his supporters in a few minutes. Howard Fineman of Newsweek says that now Dean's only option is to start hitting Kerry on his record, as and insider, etc. Further, he says that what "they want on the blog" (he didn't specify Dean Nation or the O-Blog). Is it? Is there any other option?
Dean Matching Funds Challenge http://www.deanforamerica.com/site/TR?pg=personal&fr_id=1090&px=1179278
Take the Dean Nation Matching Funds Challenge - pledge to contribute one dollar per % point that Dean draws in NH!
real-time precinct results coming in http://www.thewmurchannel.com/politics/2792974/detail.html
as of 6:55 PM CST, Dean is in 2nd by 12 points, but ahead of Clark and Edwards by teh same margin. Only 8% of precincts reporting.. click and obsessively refresh!
Dean on Hannity tonight
Listen in - this should be great! Dean is scheduled to be on the show in the last hour. I think that's the 8-9pm hour CST, but correct me if I am wrong...
shamelessly stolen from the o-blog.. BTW Kucinich is on with Hannity right now and doing really a great job!
shamelessly stolen from the o-blog.. BTW Kucinich is on with Hannity right now and doing really a great job!
Open Thread: New Hampshire Primary
The polls are still open, but not for long. MSNBC is covering the primary, Lou Dobbs is surprisingly talking about securing our borders (see my rant here). But let's get the open thread started and discuss the Dean campaigns showing tonight.
Update: Polls are closed. MSNBC and CNN are both saying it's a close race according to exit polls.
Update: Fox News says exit polling is Kerry by seven points. Also reports Trippi would be greatly pleased with those numbers.
Update: CNN has projected that Sen. John Kerry has won New Hampshire.
Update: MSNBC has projected that Sen. John Kerry has won New Hampshire.
Update: Fox News has projected that Sen. John Kerry has won New Hampshire.
Update: Polls are closed. MSNBC and CNN are both saying it's a close race according to exit polls.
Update: Fox News says exit polling is Kerry by seven points. Also reports Trippi would be greatly pleased with those numbers.
Update: CNN has projected that Sen. John Kerry has won New Hampshire.
Update: MSNBC has projected that Sen. John Kerry has won New Hampshire.
Update: Fox News has projected that Sen. John Kerry has won New Hampshire.
Report from Manchester, NH
Hey everybody!
I'm here in the Manchester office where there are about 30 of us (mostly from Massachusetts for Dean) making phone calls to strong Dean-leaners, trying to get every last potential Dean voter to the polls. This place is absolutely throbbing with voices, phones ringing, and people dashing around.
About an hour ago, Tom Hughes (NH Field Director) announced that they're cautiously optimistic but we need to pull out all the stops this afternoon. He was really pumped and led the whole HQ in several rousing rounds of clapping and foot stomping. The building was shaking!!!
If you're in NH, do whatever you can in the next few hours. If you're not in NH and you can make it here, start driving now! And if you can't make it, send happy thoughts and good karma to all of us in NH! We're gonna be hoarse by tonight, I swear. Oh and pray for the snow to wait 'til 8pm when the polls close!
Remains to be seen if we'll get home to Boston tonight, what with the storm and all. We'll all be gathering at the Univ of Southern NH to watch the returns and listen to Gov. Dean once the resolts are announced, so we may be here late and by then there may be much white stuff to drive through. But we brought our pillows and blankets in case we need to crash here for the night. ;-)
GO DEAN!!!!!
I'm here in the Manchester office where there are about 30 of us (mostly from Massachusetts for Dean) making phone calls to strong Dean-leaners, trying to get every last potential Dean voter to the polls. This place is absolutely throbbing with voices, phones ringing, and people dashing around.
About an hour ago, Tom Hughes (NH Field Director) announced that they're cautiously optimistic but we need to pull out all the stops this afternoon. He was really pumped and led the whole HQ in several rousing rounds of clapping and foot stomping. The building was shaking!!!
If you're in NH, do whatever you can in the next few hours. If you're not in NH and you can make it here, start driving now! And if you can't make it, send happy thoughts and good karma to all of us in NH! We're gonna be hoarse by tonight, I swear. Oh and pray for the snow to wait 'til 8pm when the polls close!
Remains to be seen if we'll get home to Boston tonight, what with the storm and all. We'll all be gathering at the Univ of Southern NH to watch the returns and listen to Gov. Dean once the resolts are announced, so we may be here late and by then there may be much white stuff to drive through. But we brought our pillows and blankets in case we need to crash here for the night. ;-)
GO DEAN!!!!!
Half-Time Score http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/1/27/185137/760
DailyKos, who admittedly has a bias in our favor, printed some early exit polls from New Hampshire this afternoon.
Fingers crossed folks. He notes in his item (linked at the headline) that these are like half-time scores at the Super Bowl, and may mean absolutely nothing. But there are good signs from Karen Hicks' visibility operation, and the game isn't over until the final whistle.
LA Times:
Dean 34
Kerry 33
ABC News:
Kerry 37
Dean 31
If these scores hold up, we'll have enough to call it a comeback. If we eke out even a one-vote victory, we're the lead story.
One more note. Kos says MSNBC will broadcast exit poll numbers at 4 PM.
Don't. Give. Up.
Fingers crossed folks. He notes in his item (linked at the headline) that these are like half-time scores at the Super Bowl, and may mean absolutely nothing. But there are good signs from Karen Hicks' visibility operation, and the game isn't over until the final whistle.
LA Times:
Dean 34
Kerry 33
ABC News:
Kerry 37
Dean 31
If these scores hold up, we'll have enough to call it a comeback. If we eke out even a one-vote victory, we're the lead story.
One more note. Kos says MSNBC will broadcast exit poll numbers at 4 PM.
Don't. Give. Up.
fashion observations done right http://www.prospect.org/weblog/archives/2004/01/index.html#002309
There have been numerous, painful examples of fashion-critique aimed at presidential candidates. We all remember the earth-tone thing with Gore and more recently the sweater thing with Clark - it's nothing but lazy journalism and worse, it actually dilutes the importance of the political process by dragging it down to the very definition of superficiality.
Today, though, Garance Franke-Ruta does fashion analysis right. Not by inferring from the Doctors Deans' clothes what they are trying to spin, but a simple observation of who they are:
Today, though, Garance Franke-Ruta does fashion analysis right. Not by inferring from the Doctors Deans' clothes what they are trying to spin, but a simple observation of who they are:
If you've ever spent time in the medical arena you know that being a physician is something very different from being an attorney, which is what John Edwards, John Kerry, and Joe Lieberman are. Your stance to the world is simply different if you're a physician, because -- outside of a few specialties, like plastic surgery -- your power doesn't come from how you look or how you appear or even how you sound. It comes from your knowledge and the capacity to do things no one else is authorized to do in their daily lives -- to touch bodies, to demand of individuals, to prescribe courses of action -- and from the human power of interaction. You can't convince people to be healed, no matter how eloquently you speak about disease and suffering or what you wear. You have to actually do something to make a person better. You also have to do the right thing. And if you don't, the consequences can be dire and literally deadly.
The Deans today have doubtless been shaped by their profession as much as their state of residence: Judy Dean wears exam-room shoes, a pair of comfortable slip-ons with rubber wedge heels that seemed a close relative of nurse's shoes, and Howard wears penny-loafers. He's got a pair of coke-bottle-thick gold-wire-rimmed aviator style glasses he wears sometimes when he thinks the press isn't looking. He still wears a square-faced, gold-tone watch that would look perfect poking out of a white, lab-coated sleeve. She doesn't wear make-up -- not even powder -- and looks like a person who has spent years in a job where how she looked was entirely secondary to what she could do. They are doctors, not Vermont hippies, and they helps explain their anti-aesthetic aesthetic as much as anything else.
Henry Cabot Lodge http://www.politicallibrary.org/TallState/1964rep.html
Before you look at the last polls (which show Kerry pulling away), and before we see any real results (which may be quite different) a little historical perspective for y'all.
Back in 1964 the Republican Party faced a choice between fighting or accomodating. Democrats had been in power most of the previous 32 years. The only exception, Dwight Eisenhower, had come from the accomodationist or "Dewey" wing of the party, and his vice president, Richard Nixon, failed election in 1960.
But there was a new voice in the world, a Republican telling his fellow party members that they needed to stand up for themselves, unafraid, that they must have Republican principles. He even had a book, "The Conscience of a Conservative."
The man, of course, was Barry Goldwater.
Now I know I'm going to be roundly criticized for this post, because, in the end, Goldwater lost the election. But Goldwater also changed history. Goldwater took over the Republican Party for conservatism, which was the first step toward taking over the country. He was a very important figure.
Anyway, you may be interested in knowing how Goldwater did in New Hampshire.
He got stomped.
Goldwater finished in a near-tie for second with Nelson Rockefeller, at about 20% of the vote, and the winner was a "favorite son," Henry Cabot Lodge of Massachusetts. Lodge, who had been Nixon's running mate in 1960, was an accomodationist, which we'd now call a "liberal" Republican. He was cagey, had made a career of working at the feet of rampant Democracy, and he represented the fear that a full-throated roar on behalf of principle would not work.
In the end, remember, Lodge was wrong. In the end, Goldwater won the nomination. Yes, he failed at the election, but he turned his party, and he turned history.
I said this six months ago. If that's the worst you can say of Howard Dean, and I think it is, then he is a major, vital, important figure in our time, and his cause is worth fighting for.
Daily Review
Hardball interview: Howard and Judy Dean
The Misunderstanding of Judy Dean
Democrats fire shots in final New Hampshire push
Six signs to watch in New Hampshire vote
Congressman visits Blacksburg to gain support for Dean
The Misunderstanding of Judy Dean
Democrats fire shots in final New Hampshire push
Six signs to watch in New Hampshire vote
Congressman visits Blacksburg to gain support for Dean
Monday, January 26, 2004
Open Thread: The Daily Show
Gov. Dean sat down with the Daily Show's John Stewart. Not the funniest sketch that TDS has ever done, but I think it did show Dean as somebody who is willing to joke around and have fun. Couple this with his earlier interview with Dr. Judy Dean on Hardball, and I think he's had a good media day. If Zogby is right and NH is watching... who knows?
The Only Thing We Have To Fear http://www.hpol.org/fdr/inaug/
For over a week the Dean campaign has done everything right.
The rallies have been huge. The candidate has been wonderful. He won the debate by going consistently to the opponent's right, in a state that lets independents and Republicans vote in the primary. The press has begun ganging up on the other guy for a change. The polls have been moving. The field organization is first-rate. We have all the late momentum.
But I am also prepared for the possibility we may lose tomorrow, to John Kerry.
Two sets of numbers concern me. First, over half those surveyed think John Kerry can beat Bush. Second, a Newsweek poll actually shows Kerry beating Bush.
Many Democrats would sell their souls to beat Bush. And, in New Hampshire, many may be about to.
Because I have a better chance of beating George W. Bush than John Kerry has. We have seen this movie before. Kerry was Michael Dukakis' Lieutenant-Governor. As a Senator, Kerry has usually been in the minority.
Kerry has spent his entire public life on the defensive, and it shows. He's cagey. He voted for the war, not because he thought it was right, but because he figured he could spin it, as he has. He voted for No Child Left Behind. When Bush has bullied, Kerry has retreated, like a good lieutenant before a superior foe. Then he has told voters that, no, that wasn't a retreat, it was a "strategic withdrawal," a "reconnaissance in force."
Governor Dean, on the other hand, has been a political general. Yes, it was a small state. Yes, most were modest battles. But he won them, even the tough ones. And he made life better.
So Dean's not the trouble. The "I Have A Scream" speech isn't the trouble. The trouble is this whole concept of "the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party." (Polls show liberals are with us, moderates with the more-liberal Kerry.)
I believe in the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party. We can't hope to win, as Democrats, until we're proud to stand as Democrats again. We can't win, as Democrats, until we act like Democrats again, until we stand fast again, until we refuse to retreat again, until we are ready to attack and win again.
John Kerry won't do that. His public career shows no examples of the personal courage he displayed in Vietnam, or in the anti-war movement.
But when you've been beat like a dog long enough, as Democrats have, your courage can fail you.
Franklin Roosevelt was right. What we really have to fear, tomorrow, from our fellow Democrats, is fear itself.
The rallies have been huge. The candidate has been wonderful. He won the debate by going consistently to the opponent's right, in a state that lets independents and Republicans vote in the primary. The press has begun ganging up on the other guy for a change. The polls have been moving. The field organization is first-rate. We have all the late momentum.
But I am also prepared for the possibility we may lose tomorrow, to John Kerry.
Two sets of numbers concern me. First, over half those surveyed think John Kerry can beat Bush. Second, a Newsweek poll actually shows Kerry beating Bush.
Many Democrats would sell their souls to beat Bush. And, in New Hampshire, many may be about to.
Because I have a better chance of beating George W. Bush than John Kerry has. We have seen this movie before. Kerry was Michael Dukakis' Lieutenant-Governor. As a Senator, Kerry has usually been in the minority.
Kerry has spent his entire public life on the defensive, and it shows. He's cagey. He voted for the war, not because he thought it was right, but because he figured he could spin it, as he has. He voted for No Child Left Behind. When Bush has bullied, Kerry has retreated, like a good lieutenant before a superior foe. Then he has told voters that, no, that wasn't a retreat, it was a "strategic withdrawal," a "reconnaissance in force."
Governor Dean, on the other hand, has been a political general. Yes, it was a small state. Yes, most were modest battles. But he won them, even the tough ones. And he made life better.
So Dean's not the trouble. The "I Have A Scream" speech isn't the trouble. The trouble is this whole concept of "the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party." (Polls show liberals are with us, moderates with the more-liberal Kerry.)
I believe in the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party. We can't hope to win, as Democrats, until we're proud to stand as Democrats again. We can't win, as Democrats, until we act like Democrats again, until we stand fast again, until we refuse to retreat again, until we are ready to attack and win again.
John Kerry won't do that. His public career shows no examples of the personal courage he displayed in Vietnam, or in the anti-war movement.
But when you've been beat like a dog long enough, as Democrats have, your courage can fail you.
Franklin Roosevelt was right. What we really have to fear, tomorrow, from our fellow Democrats, is fear itself.
media navel-gazing http://www.msnbc.msn.com/Default.aspx?id=4064624&p1=0
I am here to defend the media. Why? Because this "article" by Howard Mortmann, at MSNBC.com, does the media a disservice by claiming to be a part of it. In fact, Howard Mortman is a regular contributor to NRO, and stated on NPR that Enron didn't qualify as a political scandal. The article linked above is a collection of blogger quotes, without any reference to where the quotes came from or any links. I am going to give Howard Mortmann the benefit of the doubt and assume that every unnattributed quote is accurate, because I don't see any reason to think he is a liar. But a column saying that bloggers are biased from, well, Howard Mortman is at least deliciously ironic enough that it becomes a good story. It's a familiar modus operandi for Howard Mortmann, though. I wonder when he gets around to doing a similar expose on what the folks at Free Republic say?
But there is a real media bias, as opposed to political-opinion-writer-masquerading-as-real-journalist bias. And you can find no better rigorous documentation of that bias by consulting one of the finest new blogs on the web - the Campaign Desk from the Columbia School of Journalism. The blog is fantastic (and doesn't spare the Dean campaign or any other - keeping us a bit honest too). One of the recurring topics is "Spin Buster", which documents exactly how the media feeds on itself. Their systematic dissection of how Dean's Rebel Yell became the Angry Dean meme is essential reading in understanding how reporters end up writing pieces "devoted solely to the storyline that they have helped to create."
Keep the CJR blog on your reading list - and you'll learn what media bias really is.
But there is a real media bias, as opposed to political-opinion-writer-masquerading-as-real-journalist bias. And you can find no better rigorous documentation of that bias by consulting one of the finest new blogs on the web - the Campaign Desk from the Columbia School of Journalism. The blog is fantastic (and doesn't spare the Dean campaign or any other - keeping us a bit honest too). One of the recurring topics is "Spin Buster", which documents exactly how the media feeds on itself. Their systematic dissection of how Dean's Rebel Yell became the Angry Dean meme is essential reading in understanding how reporters end up writing pieces "devoted solely to the storyline that they have helped to create."
Keep the CJR blog on your reading list - and you'll learn what media bias really is.
Greetings from New Hampshire
Hey everybody.
I've had no time to post for days now. Frankly, I'm still recovering from Iowa. But this is my third day in NH and I just wanted to chime in with my two cents.
First, allow me to say a big 'ol WORD to Anna's post below about why we lost in Iowa. Our precinct captins not being experienced and well-trained and ready to play hardball and way too young -- this was the weakest link. Period. Lots of other factors -- most notably the toolish media -- but the precinct captains would be at the top of my Top Ten List of Reasons Dean Lost Iowa. Live and learn, eh?
That said, Karen Hicks runs a much different and much tighter ship here. I have several friends who work in Manchester HQ and they rave about her. This gives me great hope.
I've been to several events up here over the past few days. Had the privelege of seeing Howard and Judy at the "Women for Dean" event the other day. If you haven't seen the video of the event, please do. It's available at C-SPAN, I believe. I'd post the link but I have only a few moments to post. :-)
Anyway, Dean was just fabulous at this forum on women's issues. Judy was great, too. They both came by the overflow room prior to the main event. I happened to be in the front row of the overflow crowd so I got to shake both their hands and get some good pics. As he was exiting, a group of African-American teens from Chicago sang their Dean rap song for the Drs. Dean. It was so great -- they had led the whole room singing it a few times as we were waiting. Here's how it went (my memory isn't perfect):
I'm a Deanocrat
Yeah Yeah
I'm a Deanocrat
Yeah Yeah
It's not about where we've been
It's about where we're goin'
Where are we goin'?
To DC, baby!
To DC, baby!
Needless to say, the Deans loved it. A great moment.
This morning, I was at a town hall event where Howard and Judy both spoke...preceded by Martin Sheen. This was a highlight -- our MA group just missed Martin in Iowa and we were quite bummed. He did not dissapoint. He compared Dean to Bobby Kennedy -- a comparison I wholeheartedly endorse. Dean did very well, altho it was a more subdued crowd so there was a tad less energy for him to feed off and he seemed tired. There were also several incredibly rude and loud LaRouche hecklers who, god willing, will not be the focus of much media coverage. They were yelling and screaming about how Dean is the only Dem candidate who's never criticised Dick Cheney (LOL) and that Dean is hence a lier, etc. Typical loony ravings. Dean was quite patient with them, saying he respected their freedom of speech and they should do the same and let the woman in the audience who was waiting to ask a question do so. When they wouldn't shut up, he asked his staff and the security folks to please remove the hecklers. The crowd was totally cheering him on.
Oh another tidbit. Some of us from MA have been trying to get the media to pay attention to the fact that (1) John Kerry does not have much popular support in his home state; he is not loved a la Ted Kennedy; his constituent service stinks and everyone knows it; his legislative record is mediocre at best; his vote on Gulf War 2 pissed off a ton of his constituents etc. and (2) Dean has enormous support in MA. We've been trying to get press coverage here in NH for several elected officials who've endorsed Dean. There was a good article in yesterday's NY Times on the subject -- check it out.
Anyway, at the Dean-Sheen-Dean event today (hee), who should sit down next to me and ask if I'm an undecided NH voter or a Dean supporter? Gloria Borger. So I bent her ear on the Kerry-not-popular-in-MA-but-Dean-very-popular-in-MA angle. She was polite but probably won't follow up. Ah well, will keep trying.
Lots to do, must get a move on. Onward!
I've had no time to post for days now. Frankly, I'm still recovering from Iowa. But this is my third day in NH and I just wanted to chime in with my two cents.
First, allow me to say a big 'ol WORD to Anna's post below about why we lost in Iowa. Our precinct captins not being experienced and well-trained and ready to play hardball and way too young -- this was the weakest link. Period. Lots of other factors -- most notably the toolish media -- but the precinct captains would be at the top of my Top Ten List of Reasons Dean Lost Iowa. Live and learn, eh?
That said, Karen Hicks runs a much different and much tighter ship here. I have several friends who work in Manchester HQ and they rave about her. This gives me great hope.
I've been to several events up here over the past few days. Had the privelege of seeing Howard and Judy at the "Women for Dean" event the other day. If you haven't seen the video of the event, please do. It's available at C-SPAN, I believe. I'd post the link but I have only a few moments to post. :-)
Anyway, Dean was just fabulous at this forum on women's issues. Judy was great, too. They both came by the overflow room prior to the main event. I happened to be in the front row of the overflow crowd so I got to shake both their hands and get some good pics. As he was exiting, a group of African-American teens from Chicago sang their Dean rap song for the Drs. Dean. It was so great -- they had led the whole room singing it a few times as we were waiting. Here's how it went (my memory isn't perfect):
I'm a Deanocrat
Yeah Yeah
I'm a Deanocrat
Yeah Yeah
It's not about where we've been
It's about where we're goin'
Where are we goin'?
To DC, baby!
To DC, baby!
Needless to say, the Deans loved it. A great moment.
This morning, I was at a town hall event where Howard and Judy both spoke...preceded by Martin Sheen. This was a highlight -- our MA group just missed Martin in Iowa and we were quite bummed. He did not dissapoint. He compared Dean to Bobby Kennedy -- a comparison I wholeheartedly endorse. Dean did very well, altho it was a more subdued crowd so there was a tad less energy for him to feed off and he seemed tired. There were also several incredibly rude and loud LaRouche hecklers who, god willing, will not be the focus of much media coverage. They were yelling and screaming about how Dean is the only Dem candidate who's never criticised Dick Cheney (LOL) and that Dean is hence a lier, etc. Typical loony ravings. Dean was quite patient with them, saying he respected their freedom of speech and they should do the same and let the woman in the audience who was waiting to ask a question do so. When they wouldn't shut up, he asked his staff and the security folks to please remove the hecklers. The crowd was totally cheering him on.
Oh another tidbit. Some of us from MA have been trying to get the media to pay attention to the fact that (1) John Kerry does not have much popular support in his home state; he is not loved a la Ted Kennedy; his constituent service stinks and everyone knows it; his legislative record is mediocre at best; his vote on Gulf War 2 pissed off a ton of his constituents etc. and (2) Dean has enormous support in MA. We've been trying to get press coverage here in NH for several elected officials who've endorsed Dean. There was a good article in yesterday's NY Times on the subject -- check it out.
Anyway, at the Dean-Sheen-Dean event today (hee), who should sit down next to me and ask if I'm an undecided NH voter or a Dean supporter? Gloria Borger. So I bent her ear on the Kerry-not-popular-in-MA-but-Dean-very-popular-in-MA angle. She was polite but probably won't follow up. Ah well, will keep trying.
Lots to do, must get a move on. Onward!
Points South http://www.pointswest.blogspot.com/
Well, Trammell has arrived in Los Angeles, California! The move is complete and I'm unpacked and settled in. How ya doing Dean Nation? Sorry I haven't been more communicative. Boy have a missed blogging a bunch with all the recent goings-on in Iowa and New Hampshire!!! So, just a quick note and you'll likely see a post or two from me in the next day or so.
Cheers and say hi, - Trammell
Cheers and say hi, - Trammell
Why The Polls Are Wrong
Math time, boys and girls!
Here's what the pollsters and the news media won't tell you. Here's why the polls are wrong.
Get out your statistics textbooks. Let's turn to the section on "total universe." The larger the market, the more accurately you can forecast its behavior, because the easier it is to get a representative sample.
In a national election, the total universe is over 100 million, so it's relatively easy to get a representative sample.
In a New Hampshire primary, the total universe may be 100-150,000. We don't know. Not only that, but because the total potential universe is small, it's very hard (nearly impossible) to draw a representative sample from it. All the "tricks" pollsters use to even out differences among samples, which work well with a big universe, skew the results further with a small universe.
In a national election, where 100 million vote, you need to change 1 million minds to get a 1% movement in the polls. In a New Hampshire primary, you need a change of 1,000 minds. You can get the same impact by changing the contents of the sample, by changing who actually turns out.
So there is no way for the polls to be right in New Hampshire, and frankly, they never are. They are nearly always wrong. Last time, in the Republican primary, polls taken the day before the election showed Bush up 4% on John McCain. He lost by 17%.
What does this mean? First, momentum is important, and right now it appears Dean has it. Second, Get Out The Vote (GOTV) activities mean everything. You've got to get out all the voters you can. Then you hope for the best.
Fingers crossed.
Here's what the pollsters and the news media won't tell you. Here's why the polls are wrong.
Get out your statistics textbooks. Let's turn to the section on "total universe." The larger the market, the more accurately you can forecast its behavior, because the easier it is to get a representative sample.
In a national election, the total universe is over 100 million, so it's relatively easy to get a representative sample.
In a New Hampshire primary, the total universe may be 100-150,000. We don't know. Not only that, but because the total potential universe is small, it's very hard (nearly impossible) to draw a representative sample from it. All the "tricks" pollsters use to even out differences among samples, which work well with a big universe, skew the results further with a small universe.
In a national election, where 100 million vote, you need to change 1 million minds to get a 1% movement in the polls. In a New Hampshire primary, you need a change of 1,000 minds. You can get the same impact by changing the contents of the sample, by changing who actually turns out.
So there is no way for the polls to be right in New Hampshire, and frankly, they never are. They are nearly always wrong. Last time, in the Republican primary, polls taken the day before the election showed Bush up 4% on John McCain. He lost by 17%.
What does this mean? First, momentum is important, and right now it appears Dean has it. Second, Get Out The Vote (GOTV) activities mean everything. You've got to get out all the voters you can. Then you hope for the best.
Fingers crossed.
open thread
This is it! BTW< rumor has it that Dean will be on the Daily Show tonight. can anyone confirm?
dead Iraqis and dirty tricks http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2004/01/26/dean_decries_iraq_war_in_return_to_strategy/
the full quote from Dean in New Hampshire:
(emphasis mine). Kudos to Dean for actually talking about dead Iraqis (the one topic that left and right seem to gloss over in the debate about the cost of Iraqi freedom). However, watch for Holy Joe Lieberman, Senator War Hero Kerry, and possibly Edwards in print handouts to ground personnel to spin this as "Dean says Iraqis are worse off after Saddam!" without mentioning that he was explicitly talking about dead Iraqis. Infamous AP writer Nedra Pickler already "fails to mention" that fact in her dishonest headline.
It also seems that someone is calling New Hampshire families at 4am with recorded messages claiming to be from the Dean camp. The NH HQ for the Dean campaign quickly issued a statement:
What links these issues is the way in which a major target remains painted on Dean's back, despite all talk of Clark and Kerry needing to focus their guns on each other. Clark might well lose to Edwards for third place, and the other campaigns stil see Dean as a major threat - they fear the bat.
Now, it's too early to tell whether the other campaigns will run with the dead Iraqi quote, since not even Newsmax or Drudge have gotten around to it yet. Maybe the campaigns will remain above the fray. And I personally doubt that any of the campaigns are directly involved in the phone scamming, though whoever is responsible is probably someone senior enough to have access to the resources necessary for the stunt. Only Kerry has really gone explicitly negative. I think we are seeing a ground war fought by extremists within the Kerry camp and also by RNC strategists in sync (but not in collusion) out of Deanfear.
Still, we know that these smear campaigns do work. So, follow the directive of President Bartlett - today is Howard Dean Day in the Granite State. Show your suport by feeding the Comeback Bat and let's root for our team freezing their butts off in NH! Show Jason and all the other volunteers that you're with them in spirit - feed the bat!
You can say that it's great that Saddam [Hussein] is gone, and I'm sure that a lot of Iraqis feel it is great that Saddam is gone, but a lot of them gave their lives, and their living standard is a whole lot worse now than it was before."
(emphasis mine). Kudos to Dean for actually talking about dead Iraqis (the one topic that left and right seem to gloss over in the debate about the cost of Iraqi freedom). However, watch for Holy Joe Lieberman, Senator War Hero Kerry, and possibly Edwards in print handouts to ground personnel to spin this as "Dean says Iraqis are worse off after Saddam!" without mentioning that he was explicitly talking about dead Iraqis. Infamous AP writer Nedra Pickler already "fails to mention" that fact in her dishonest headline.
It also seems that someone is calling New Hampshire families at 4am with recorded messages claiming to be from the Dean camp. The NH HQ for the Dean campaign quickly issued a statement:
Statement from State Director Karen Hicks
Posted by Timothy Jones
on Sun, 01/25/2004, 12:50 pm
Today, Karen Hicks, Dean For America's New Hampshire State Director, made the following statement:
"In recent days, our campaign has been hearing reports from New Hampshire voters that they are receiving:
* phone calls early in the morning and late at night;
* "robo calls" from soulless machines, not calls from considerate people;
* calls claiming to originate from the Dean campaign, but do not;
* and even harassing calls and bigoted messages.
Let me be very clear. The Dean campaign does not call New Hampshire homes before 8:30 am or after 8:30 pm. Our calls are made by respectful people, not droning machines. Our callers tell the truth.
We call on the other campaigns to make the same commitments.
We are grateful for the extraordinary engagement of New Hampshire's people in this race. But our campaign believes that everyone deserves some peace, some respect, and a truthful message."
What links these issues is the way in which a major target remains painted on Dean's back, despite all talk of Clark and Kerry needing to focus their guns on each other. Clark might well lose to Edwards for third place, and the other campaigns stil see Dean as a major threat - they fear the bat.
Now, it's too early to tell whether the other campaigns will run with the dead Iraqi quote, since not even Newsmax or Drudge have gotten around to it yet. Maybe the campaigns will remain above the fray. And I personally doubt that any of the campaigns are directly involved in the phone scamming, though whoever is responsible is probably someone senior enough to have access to the resources necessary for the stunt. Only Kerry has really gone explicitly negative. I think we are seeing a ground war fought by extremists within the Kerry camp and also by RNC strategists in sync (but not in collusion) out of Deanfear.
Still, we know that these smear campaigns do work. So, follow the directive of President Bartlett - today is Howard Dean Day in the Granite State. Show your suport by feeding the Comeback Bat and let's root for our team freezing their butts off in NH! Show Jason and all the other volunteers that you're with them in spirit - feed the bat!
Yes, We Have A Chance http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4060197/
Given up for dead in New Hampshire just a few days ago, the Dean campaign has roared back into a statistical dead heat with that of John Kerry, according to the latest MSNBC/Zogby tracking poll.
That poll had Kerry ahead 28-25, but that is within the poll's margin of error. Dean has gained 7 points in the Zogby poll in two days.
We've done this by staying positive, allowing Kerry to go negative, on both Clark and on us. This is precisely the mistake we made in Iowa, focusing only on Gephardt, going negative on Gephardt, while Kerry and Edwards stood above the fray.
The key to the next 24 hours is to keep the pressure on. Keep talking to people. Accept "no" if that's the answer. We can win if we get the votes of independents, so find them and make sure you can get ours to the polls.
It's all going to be about GOTV (get out the vote) tomorrow, with snow expected and temperatures under 10 degrees. Zogby has Dean leading in New Hampshire's Second Congressional District, but that's where the distances to the polling places are greatest. He also has us leading among voters under 30, which are also those least likely to vote.
There's an old football saying called "Finish The Drill." By that they mean work right through the tape to the finish line, because it's the team that finishes strong, with energy left in the last minutes of the fourth quarter, that wins the game.
Finish The Drill, Deaniacs. Or take it in another context, that of the great New England poet Robert Frost:
The woods are lovely, dark and deep,
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep.
That poll had Kerry ahead 28-25, but that is within the poll's margin of error. Dean has gained 7 points in the Zogby poll in two days.
We've done this by staying positive, allowing Kerry to go negative, on both Clark and on us. This is precisely the mistake we made in Iowa, focusing only on Gephardt, going negative on Gephardt, while Kerry and Edwards stood above the fray.
The key to the next 24 hours is to keep the pressure on. Keep talking to people. Accept "no" if that's the answer. We can win if we get the votes of independents, so find them and make sure you can get ours to the polls.
It's all going to be about GOTV (get out the vote) tomorrow, with snow expected and temperatures under 10 degrees. Zogby has Dean leading in New Hampshire's Second Congressional District, but that's where the distances to the polling places are greatest. He also has us leading among voters under 30, which are also those least likely to vote.
There's an old football saying called "Finish The Drill." By that they mean work right through the tape to the finish line, because it's the team that finishes strong, with energy left in the last minutes of the fourth quarter, that wins the game.
Finish The Drill, Deaniacs. Or take it in another context, that of the great New England poet Robert Frost:
The woods are lovely, dark and deep,
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep.
Sunday, January 25, 2004
Dean and Bin Laden http://www.tnr.com/blog/campaignjournal?pid=1242
I see from this Kerry attack mailing that they are using Dean's comments on trying Osama Bin Laden. Not to put too fine a point on it, bit if the Israelis can try Adolf Eichmann, surely we can try Bin Laden. In some places, people clamor for trials of those who have wronged them. Perhaps Americans have grown so complacent in our prosperity that we've lost track of the things that make us truly great. Fortunately there's at least one candidate in the race who understands, and is level-headed enough to keep them foremost in his mind.
That is all.
That is all.
Sunday in New Hampshire
First, computer time is a rare commodity here in the New Hampshire state Dean for America office. My apologies for the abrupt ending yesterday and in advance today.
Today was in almost every way an ideal day. All day, positivity and optimism surrounded me. Dr. Dean himself said that tracking polls were definitely going in the right direction and that we were the only campaign moving at all.
I started the day in a much better state, after having hung out with several other volunteers and slept in an actual bed. This morning, I was lucky enough to see a town hall meeting conducted by the Doctors Dean at SNHU, which you should watch if you can (it was taped by C-SPAN). The place was packed -- I arrived 15 minutes before it was scheduled to start, and the overflow room was overflowing. Before the Deans spoke, they actually came out to the overflow room first for a quick introduction (which was an extremely thoughtful gesture to the folks in that room). After a fine introduction by Judy in the main room, Howard proceeded by, simply, inspiring. He was presidential, but he was also real. You should watch the speech if you can; it was taped by C-SPAN. I can't do it justice here.
After the town hall meeting, I went back to the off-site volunteer office and canvassed with an interesting guy from D.C. named Micheal (sic). We went to probably 25 doors before it got dark, dropped off tapes of the Diane Sawyer interview, and talked to about 10 people -- several of whom were strong Dean supporters. Afterwards, I came back to the state office and did some voter ID calls, inviting people to events.
They need me to unload videos from a van... more later.
Today was in almost every way an ideal day. All day, positivity and optimism surrounded me. Dr. Dean himself said that tracking polls were definitely going in the right direction and that we were the only campaign moving at all.
I started the day in a much better state, after having hung out with several other volunteers and slept in an actual bed. This morning, I was lucky enough to see a town hall meeting conducted by the Doctors Dean at SNHU, which you should watch if you can (it was taped by C-SPAN). The place was packed -- I arrived 15 minutes before it was scheduled to start, and the overflow room was overflowing. Before the Deans spoke, they actually came out to the overflow room first for a quick introduction (which was an extremely thoughtful gesture to the folks in that room). After a fine introduction by Judy in the main room, Howard proceeded by, simply, inspiring. He was presidential, but he was also real. You should watch the speech if you can; it was taped by C-SPAN. I can't do it justice here.
After the town hall meeting, I went back to the off-site volunteer office and canvassed with an interesting guy from D.C. named Micheal (sic). We went to probably 25 doors before it got dark, dropped off tapes of the Diane Sawyer interview, and talked to about 10 people -- several of whom were strong Dean supporters. Afterwards, I came back to the state office and did some voter ID calls, inviting people to events.
They need me to unload videos from a van... more later.
Time’s Arrow Points To You
I saw something yesterday, on the streets of my home town, that chilled me to my bones.
It was an old VW bug, painted pink, with a pig’s snout and ears welded to the hood. On the side was painted “Pink Floyd,” with the logo from their “Dark Side of the Moon” on it, the triangular crystal refracting a rainbow. No big deal, until I looked at the driver. His hair was white, and his white beard hung down to his chest. He wasn’t the owner’s father. He was the car’s builder.
Here in the middle of life, or a campaign, we can easily forget Time’s Arrow, or where it points for all of us. But figure the driver for 60. He was 30 when he made that car.
Then look around at this election. John Kerry defines himself as a Vietnam Veteran, Wesley Clark was a captain in that conflict. Even Governor Dean was seared by it, cheered to declared 1-Y for the draft after Kerry threw his medals away, and his good brother Charlie dead in Laos.
All that was all 30 years ago, and more. Kerry’s defining himself by Vietnam is like a Progressive in 1904 wearing his Civil War medal. Salute, but it’s irrelevant. “[Vietnam] is young people dying for the wrong reasons, because leaders don't do the things that they should to protect them. Yes I do [see a parallel with Iraq].”
He’s living in the past. Maybe we all are.
James MacGregor Burns writes in his book “Transforming Leadership” that two points mark a Transformative Leader, the kind of leader we all see in Governor Dean.
First, a movement arises around him that he did not create. (Check.)
Second, leaders emerge from within that movement.
Win or lose in New Hampshire, it is time for Phase Two to commence.
I think Anna Topia would make a great Congresswoman from Texas. I do. She’s old enough to run, by her own admission. Maybe, in 2004, she’d be swamped, perhaps even in the primary. But she would learn, and grow. She could try again, and win.
Aziz could be a Senator, and Jason a Mayor. Matt B. could be whatever he wants to be. Christopher, Amanda, name your position and go for it. Maybe you, dear reader, should be considering a run for City Council, or School Board. When Jimmy Carter ran for re-election in 1980, young Dr. Howard Dean licked envelopes.
Don’t look my way, though. I’m 49. I like naps, I’ve got high blood pressure, and I’ve always been more of a a Tom Paine-in-the-neck than a Jefferson. But I’ll be here on the sidelines, cheering you all on.
Let the last words here be Burns’.
"Can we, in coming decades, mobilize throughout the world a new, militant, but peaceful army -- tens of thousands of leaders who would in turn recruit fresh leaders at the grass roots, in villages and neighborhoods, from among the poor themselves, to fight and win a worldwide war against desperation?"
It’s your time now.
It was an old VW bug, painted pink, with a pig’s snout and ears welded to the hood. On the side was painted “Pink Floyd,” with the logo from their “Dark Side of the Moon” on it, the triangular crystal refracting a rainbow. No big deal, until I looked at the driver. His hair was white, and his white beard hung down to his chest. He wasn’t the owner’s father. He was the car’s builder.
Here in the middle of life, or a campaign, we can easily forget Time’s Arrow, or where it points for all of us. But figure the driver for 60. He was 30 when he made that car.
Then look around at this election. John Kerry defines himself as a Vietnam Veteran, Wesley Clark was a captain in that conflict. Even Governor Dean was seared by it, cheered to declared 1-Y for the draft after Kerry threw his medals away, and his good brother Charlie dead in Laos.
All that was all 30 years ago, and more. Kerry’s defining himself by Vietnam is like a Progressive in 1904 wearing his Civil War medal. Salute, but it’s irrelevant. “[Vietnam] is young people dying for the wrong reasons, because leaders don't do the things that they should to protect them. Yes I do [see a parallel with Iraq].”
He’s living in the past. Maybe we all are.
James MacGregor Burns writes in his book “Transforming Leadership” that two points mark a Transformative Leader, the kind of leader we all see in Governor Dean.
First, a movement arises around him that he did not create. (Check.)
Second, leaders emerge from within that movement.
Win or lose in New Hampshire, it is time for Phase Two to commence.
I think Anna Topia would make a great Congresswoman from Texas. I do. She’s old enough to run, by her own admission. Maybe, in 2004, she’d be swamped, perhaps even in the primary. But she would learn, and grow. She could try again, and win.
Aziz could be a Senator, and Jason a Mayor. Matt B. could be whatever he wants to be. Christopher, Amanda, name your position and go for it. Maybe you, dear reader, should be considering a run for City Council, or School Board. When Jimmy Carter ran for re-election in 1980, young Dr. Howard Dean licked envelopes.
Don’t look my way, though. I’m 49. I like naps, I’ve got high blood pressure, and I’ve always been more of a a Tom Paine-in-the-neck than a Jefferson. But I’ll be here on the sidelines, cheering you all on.
Let the last words here be Burns’.
"Can we, in coming decades, mobilize throughout the world a new, militant, but peaceful army -- tens of thousands of leaders who would in turn recruit fresh leaders at the grass roots, in villages and neighborhoods, from among the poor themselves, to fight and win a worldwide war against desperation?"
It’s your time now.
Kerry Goes Negative http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20040125/pl_nm/campaign_kerry_dc_1
Apparently the Kerry camp is sensing what the rest of us are... Dean is making a comeback in New Hampshire. Today, Kerry accused Gov. Dean of "flip-flops" on taxes and foreign policy. Umm... Senator Kerry, are we doing a little projecting here?
Howard Dean stood up to George Bush's unilateral action in Iraq - Senator Kerry voted for it, but then voted against the $87 billion to fund it, and has spent the entire campaign trying to explain his positions on the issue...
On the economy, Howard Dean says we need a balanced budget and the only way to get back on track is to repeal the "Bush Tax" - Bush's ill-advised tax cuts for the wealthy in this country. Senator Kerry says we need tax cuts, and by the way, we're going to fund education, provide more health care, etc., etc.
I'm not saying those aren't good goals, but the reality is that Dean is the only candidate with the courage to say there's no free ride. We've all got to pitch in to get the economy and the budget back on track. Dean has been extremely consistent in his positions during the campaign - it's the others who have shifted to try to appeal to Dean's supporters. Nice try, Senator Kerry, but it won't wash.
Howard Dean stood up to George Bush's unilateral action in Iraq - Senator Kerry voted for it, but then voted against the $87 billion to fund it, and has spent the entire campaign trying to explain his positions on the issue...
On the economy, Howard Dean says we need a balanced budget and the only way to get back on track is to repeal the "Bush Tax" - Bush's ill-advised tax cuts for the wealthy in this country. Senator Kerry says we need tax cuts, and by the way, we're going to fund education, provide more health care, etc., etc.
I'm not saying those aren't good goals, but the reality is that Dean is the only candidate with the courage to say there's no free ride. We've all got to pitch in to get the economy and the budget back on track. Dean has been extremely consistent in his positions during the campaign - it's the others who have shifted to try to appeal to Dean's supporters. Nice try, Senator Kerry, but it won't wash.
German Trial Hears How Iranian Agent Warned US of Impending al-Qaida Attack http://www.guardian.co.uk/september11/story/0,11209,1130338,00.html
This guy was a surprise witness at the trial of an al-Qaida operative. This is breaking news. Here are the money quotes:
The United States was warned of impending September 11 terrorist attacks by an Iranian spy, but ignored him, German secret service agents testified yesterday in the trial of an alleged al-Qaida terrorist.
The spy, identified as Hamid Reza Zakeri, tried to warn the CIA after leaving Iran in 2001, but was not believed, two German officers who interviewed him told the Hamburg court...
...The testimony at the Hamburg trial could heap more embarrassment on the US state department and secret services, which have denied allegations that they were forewarned of the attacks.
The White House and US intelligence agencies have been plagued by accusations of a catastrophic failure since the four planes were hijacked to such devastating effect in 2001.
***************************************
Allow me to begin the embarrassment-heaping process. Dean has been castigated in the press for his December 1 statement on the Diane Rehm public radio show speculating that the Bush administration may have been forewarned about the 9/11 attacks. I remember thinking back then that sooner or later the truth would come out and Dean would look like a prophet. Well, somebody get the guy a laurel wreath, because he's a-prophesizing. Dean does not need to back off of the antiwar platform – he needs to wait calmly as the chickens come home to roost for Dubya. And not too many chickens can roost on a Shrub.
You can find the Diane Rehm interview here:
http://www.wamu.org/dr/2003/drarc_031201.html#monday
(Can't figure out how to make this a hyperlink).
Conan Dean Carey
PhD Candidate, Japanese Literature
Tabling Coordinator, Stanford Students for Howard Dean
The United States was warned of impending September 11 terrorist attacks by an Iranian spy, but ignored him, German secret service agents testified yesterday in the trial of an alleged al-Qaida terrorist.
The spy, identified as Hamid Reza Zakeri, tried to warn the CIA after leaving Iran in 2001, but was not believed, two German officers who interviewed him told the Hamburg court...
...The testimony at the Hamburg trial could heap more embarrassment on the US state department and secret services, which have denied allegations that they were forewarned of the attacks.
The White House and US intelligence agencies have been plagued by accusations of a catastrophic failure since the four planes were hijacked to such devastating effect in 2001.
***************************************
Allow me to begin the embarrassment-heaping process. Dean has been castigated in the press for his December 1 statement on the Diane Rehm public radio show speculating that the Bush administration may have been forewarned about the 9/11 attacks. I remember thinking back then that sooner or later the truth would come out and Dean would look like a prophet. Well, somebody get the guy a laurel wreath, because he's a-prophesizing. Dean does not need to back off of the antiwar platform – he needs to wait calmly as the chickens come home to roost for Dubya. And not too many chickens can roost on a Shrub.
You can find the Diane Rehm interview here:
http://www.wamu.org/dr/2003/drarc_031201.html#monday
(Can't figure out how to make this a hyperlink).
Conan Dean Carey
PhD Candidate, Japanese Literature
Tabling Coordinator, Stanford Students for Howard Dean
Americans Love An Underdog http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/1/25/164234/982
Today, two days before the New Hampshire primary, every poll shows our campaign trailing that of Senator John Kerry.
The margin is anywhere from a few points to dozens. Some say we have momentum. Others say we've got nothing.
But know this.
Americans love the underdog. We don't root for Goliath, even when we're Goliath. We root for the scrappy little guy. We relish the comeback. It's in our nature.
Americans like to see the little guy come off the deck and hit the big guy in the chin. It's when everyone says you can't that Americans say you can.
It's always been that way. Especially in New Hampshire.
George W. Bush didn't win the New Hampshire primary. John McCain did. Bill Clinton didn't win it. Paul Tsongas did. Even crazy Pat Buchanan pulled a New Hampshire surprise.
So why the long faces? Our candidate is doing everything right, and has been since Thursday. Our people are working hard. Our support is committed. We have been running to the right of Kerry all week -- all we need to do is get his less-committed supporters to notice.
And even a strong second place puts us in decent shape heading South, where Kerry has less organization. Assuming, as some polls indicate, it's Wesley Clark who New Hampshire voters are about to throw under the bus, we have yet-another growth opportunity, because (as some of my friends have been pointing out), Clark's campaign has been doing some good things with software lately.
So repeat after me. There's no need to fear, Underdog is here.
RNC thugs in Iowa, and how Kerry handed us our a**... http://www.woi-tv.com/Global/story.asp?S=1607003&nav=1LFXKHOc
One final brain dump about Iowa and then I'm done. The reason I waited until today to write this up is I was hoping someone would post the video from the Drake University event last Saturday in Des Moines. Since the video is still forthcoming, I guess I'll have to spill and hope whomever has it releases it later.
What am I talking about? Go click on the article above and read all about it. The RNC sent thugs to Iowa to disrupt our events. At the Drake University event, the RNC thugs stormed the event holding large Bush/Cheney04 signs and chanting "4 more years". A shoving match ensued and eventually they were driven from the room when everyone sang "The Star Spangled Banner" in unison.
Why all the fuss over a candidate that poses "no threat" to Bush? Because they don't know how to beat us. There are several conventional ways to attack the two Johns, the General, and the other candidates. And can those candidates stir up the kind of grassroots passion that will drive our GOTV efforts this fall?
On Sunday I got to watch the ten minute video of what transpired at Drake University. I don't know who took the video or where it is now, but someone out there has the footage and hopefully it'll be floating around the 'net soon. Everyone needs to see the kind of tactics these thugs are employing. For the good of the entire party all Democratic supporters need to know how far they'll go to beat us.
Now on to Senator Kerry. I really need to give him props (as we all should) for building a super stealth field organisation that kicked our butts in Iowa. This article credits Michael Whouley, longtime Democratic activist. Props to Mr Whouley. I'm glad he's on the Democratic side. Anyway. Whouley built the network, and got Kerry people into the important positions of leading the many of the precinct caucuses. This is where we blew it. We sent inexperiences newbies up against trained field operatives. On top of that, we tried to play nice and they didn't. The Kerry and Edwards people ran the show. They sat undecideds between the Kerry & Edwards groups and relegated us to the other side of the room. They planted their own supporters among the undecideds and were able to sway them. The Edwards people even came with their own attack packets which included smears against Dean and the others, and they used these arguments to sway undecideds. Mr Positive, yea okay. Anyway, the point being that when it came to the caucuses, these two were better prepared and we weren't. Our volunteers weren't up to speed, and there was random talk of overselling the Iowans, and it simply failed us.
This is why I was so upset when I came back from Iowa. I felt we could have done a much better job of being prepared. We should have trained harder, screened our phone lists better, and we should have prepared for dirty tricks. And above all, we did not need to go negative for those last few weeks. Gephardt/Dean took each other down a few notches.
But we can do better.
Apparently the field organisation in New Hampshire is much better than they were in Iowa. Based on the new ads, it seems our ads folks have learned their lesson. It also seems that the New Hampshire volunteers are better prepared as well, and above all, this is a primary. One person, one vote. How do I think we'll fare in New Hampshire. Well honestly, I think we need to prepare ourselves for a second or third place finish. I don't think we have enough time to catch Kerry, but the polls seem to indicate a slight recovery for us. The media blitz bounce is finally showing up, and things don't look so bad right now. Just remember that we have the resources to fight another day. We need to be thinking about Feb 3.
I'm anticipating a decent showing on Tuesday. But I also want everyone here to anticipate a media Gore-ing of us if we don't place first. Please get your pens and emails ready, because we are going to have to push back no matter what happens. I was serious the other day when I said the media was not our friend, so please get ready to write some letters/emails on Wednesday.
Here's a list of addresses for all the major media outlets (culled from the comments section over on Counterspin):
Thanks for letting me ramble on. I still had all these things on my mind and getting them out seems to help. I still believe we can win the nomination, and I hope that you have not lost faith. Ignore the trolls that keep dumping on this board. They want to dance on our grave, but we're not dead yet.
What am I talking about? Go click on the article above and read all about it. The RNC sent thugs to Iowa to disrupt our events. At the Drake University event, the RNC thugs stormed the event holding large Bush/Cheney04 signs and chanting "4 more years". A shoving match ensued and eventually they were driven from the room when everyone sang "The Star Spangled Banner" in unison.
Why all the fuss over a candidate that poses "no threat" to Bush? Because they don't know how to beat us. There are several conventional ways to attack the two Johns, the General, and the other candidates. And can those candidates stir up the kind of grassroots passion that will drive our GOTV efforts this fall?
On Sunday I got to watch the ten minute video of what transpired at Drake University. I don't know who took the video or where it is now, but someone out there has the footage and hopefully it'll be floating around the 'net soon. Everyone needs to see the kind of tactics these thugs are employing. For the good of the entire party all Democratic supporters need to know how far they'll go to beat us.
Now on to Senator Kerry. I really need to give him props (as we all should) for building a super stealth field organisation that kicked our butts in Iowa. This article credits Michael Whouley, longtime Democratic activist. Props to Mr Whouley. I'm glad he's on the Democratic side. Anyway. Whouley built the network, and got Kerry people into the important positions of leading the many of the precinct caucuses. This is where we blew it. We sent inexperiences newbies up against trained field operatives. On top of that, we tried to play nice and they didn't. The Kerry and Edwards people ran the show. They sat undecideds between the Kerry & Edwards groups and relegated us to the other side of the room. They planted their own supporters among the undecideds and were able to sway them. The Edwards people even came with their own attack packets which included smears against Dean and the others, and they used these arguments to sway undecideds. Mr Positive, yea okay. Anyway, the point being that when it came to the caucuses, these two were better prepared and we weren't. Our volunteers weren't up to speed, and there was random talk of overselling the Iowans, and it simply failed us.
This is why I was so upset when I came back from Iowa. I felt we could have done a much better job of being prepared. We should have trained harder, screened our phone lists better, and we should have prepared for dirty tricks. And above all, we did not need to go negative for those last few weeks. Gephardt/Dean took each other down a few notches.
But we can do better.
Apparently the field organisation in New Hampshire is much better than they were in Iowa. Based on the new ads, it seems our ads folks have learned their lesson. It also seems that the New Hampshire volunteers are better prepared as well, and above all, this is a primary. One person, one vote. How do I think we'll fare in New Hampshire. Well honestly, I think we need to prepare ourselves for a second or third place finish. I don't think we have enough time to catch Kerry, but the polls seem to indicate a slight recovery for us. The media blitz bounce is finally showing up, and things don't look so bad right now. Just remember that we have the resources to fight another day. We need to be thinking about Feb 3.
I'm anticipating a decent showing on Tuesday. But I also want everyone here to anticipate a media Gore-ing of us if we don't place first. Please get your pens and emails ready, because we are going to have to push back no matter what happens. I was serious the other day when I said the media was not our friend, so please get ready to write some letters/emails on Wednesday.
Here's a list of addresses for all the major media outlets (culled from the comments section over on Counterspin):
evening@cbsnews.com
nightly@nbc.com
mtp@nbc.com
nightline@abcnews.com
info@ap.org
atc@npr.org
onlinenewshour@newshour.org
Thanks for letting me ramble on. I still had all these things on my mind and getting them out seems to help. I still believe we can win the nomination, and I hope that you have not lost faith. Ignore the trolls that keep dumping on this board. They want to dance on our grave, but we're not dead yet.
Saturday, January 24, 2004
New Hampshire Part II
The New Hampshire campaign is vibrant, hopeful, and chaotic--and may very well propel us to victory on Tuesday.
One travel day and one full volunteering day later, I am at the center of things in Manchester. Saturday started encouragingly, with excellent message and canvass training from David Bringer and other organizers in Manchester. David's open Q & A was very informative and encouraging. My last-minute arrival made it difficult for me to find a place to go (provisionally, California volunteers were assigned to Keene, NH); however, I spent much of the day performing odd tasks at the volunteer staging office in Manchester (accompanied by many extremely nice people from SEIU Local 1199 and others from Rochester, NY). After reporting back to the main field office in the evening, I felt much more productive, calling supporters and undecided voters to persuade them to vote for Dean on Tuesday and to invite them to see Governor Dean and Dr. Judy Dean's town meeting at the Southern New Hampshire University's Hospitality Center at 9:30 Sunday morning. [Everyone is invited!]
I managed to meet and talk to many very nice, very committed, very real people. Howard is truly people-powered, and I can't imagine that any of the other candidates has as amazing a base of supporters as Dean.
I'm heading off to a place called "Creative Classroom" to stay tonight--undoubtedly an improvement over the Manchester Y. I anticipate a highly productive day tomorrow.
Being in the thick of things, I'm completely insulated from whatever might have appeared in the media in the last 48 hours. Heading out now... more tomorrow.
One travel day and one full volunteering day later, I am at the center of things in Manchester. Saturday started encouragingly, with excellent message and canvass training from David Bringer and other organizers in Manchester. David's open Q & A was very informative and encouraging. My last-minute arrival made it difficult for me to find a place to go (provisionally, California volunteers were assigned to Keene, NH); however, I spent much of the day performing odd tasks at the volunteer staging office in Manchester (accompanied by many extremely nice people from SEIU Local 1199 and others from Rochester, NY). After reporting back to the main field office in the evening, I felt much more productive, calling supporters and undecided voters to persuade them to vote for Dean on Tuesday and to invite them to see Governor Dean and Dr. Judy Dean's town meeting at the Southern New Hampshire University's Hospitality Center at 9:30 Sunday morning. [Everyone is invited!]
I managed to meet and talk to many very nice, very committed, very real people. Howard is truly people-powered, and I can't imagine that any of the other candidates has as amazing a base of supporters as Dean.
I'm heading off to a place called "Creative Classroom" to stay tonight--undoubtedly an improvement over the Manchester Y. I anticipate a highly productive day tomorrow.
Being in the thick of things, I'm completely insulated from whatever might have appeared in the media in the last 48 hours. Heading out now... more tomorrow.
Sounds Like Someone Just Made Our Mistake http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/01/23/60minutes/main595431.shtml
Our mistake, to hear the pundits tell it, was to go negative, specifically on Dick Gephardt in Iowa.
As a result, caucus-goers went for more "positive" candidates, Kerry and Edwards.
This sounds pretty negative to me.
"That's the first time I have heard a general be so dismissive of lieutenants, who bleed a lot in wars."
That's John Kerry (who served as a lieutenant in Vietnam) on Wesley Clark (who rose to the rank of general, but was still a captain in Vietnam). Kerry continued:
"[Vietnam] is young people dying for the wrong reasons, because leaders don't do the things that they should to protect them. Yes I do [see a parallel with Iraq]. This president breached faith with the lesson...we learned in Vietnam. You truly should go to war as a matter of last resort. This president rushed to war without a plan to win the peace."
Sounds like someone losing their temper to me. Does it sound like that to you?
It also makes you wonder about the judgement of a more mature John Kerry, who voted in 2002 for the Iraq version of a Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, doesn't it? It further makes you ask again who opposed the war from the start. (The answer to that you know...Dr. Howard Dean.)
All this Sunday on "60 Minutes." And two days for all that to sink in before New Hampshire votes.
The Beauty Of Low Expectations
I could be wrong, or this could be setting up nicely.
Expectations for the Dean campaign in New Hampshire have hit rock-bottom. A three-day average of tracking polls (Wednesday-Friday) shows Kerry with his biggest leads yet. Some even show our man in third, behind General Clark.
Some liberal pundits, notably Eleanor Clift, have already written Dean off because of “The Scream,” even though she was personally in the room and didn’t think it bad at the time.
But consider. Dean had a great day Thursday. New Hampshireites now have to consider a vote for Kerry as anointing him the nominee. Republicans are focusing their attention on him. He is trying to run out the clock.
It could be the big crowds now at Dean events are like groupies at a band’s farewell tour. I haven’t surveyed where they’re from. Or it could be that New Hampshireites are re-evaluating a man who is, after all, their neighbor and who they did, after all, say they supported until a few weeks ago.
Right now the national media is setting up the equivalent of “high jump bars” at the New Hampshire finish line. Lieberman needs to get into double-digits, at least, and finish third. Clark needs to beat Lieberman and Edwards. Dean only needs to beat Clark. Kerry needs to win, and win big.
The hurdles are being set with the expectation that, on Wednesday, the media will all be writing about John Edwards. His expectations are absurdly low, the next week’s contests favor his home base of North Carolina.
But, as I said, they are also being set low for us. A 28-22 loss, a solid second place, would have looked like disaster a week ago. Now it looks delicious. Anything better, it gets better still.
It is good to have the press write your obituary. It was good for Kerry, after his “motorcycle” appearance on Leno. It was good for Edwards. It can be very, very good for us.
Figure there will be 150,000 New Hampshire primary voters, which is optimistic. Can we get 50,000 of them, including independents, voters who don’t want the game to end in Kerry’s favor (as they didn’t want it to end for us a week ago), conservative Democrats (who heard a pretty conservative Dean in the debate). There’s less room for our troops to be out-manuevered as there were in the caucus. Voters show up, vote, and leave – eazy-peazy.
This is not a bad place to be. We’re desperate. We need to do something NOW. But we have the troops, we have a calmer candidate, we have a chance.
All we ever wanted was a chance.
Daily Review
Dean Touts Strength Of His Convictions
A Livelier Dean Speaks Out, but in a Reassuring Mode
Dean is best candidate for the White House
Voters Search for Virtue in Dean's Faults
Is There a Doctor in the House
Dean Draws
Supportive Crowds
Stand by your man '04
Primetime Dean
A Livelier Dean Speaks Out, but in a Reassuring Mode
Dean is best candidate for the White House
Voters Search for Virtue in Dean's Faults
Is There a Doctor in the House
Dean Draws
Supportive Crowds
Stand by your man '04
Primetime Dean
Friday, January 23, 2004
New Poll http://www.americanresearchgroup/nhpoll/demtrack
The bad news is that Dean fell a bit...
Kerry - 34%
Clark - 19%
Dean - 15%
Lieberman - 6%
The good news is that if commenters on Daily Kos threads like this one are right, this drop is the result of losing a high Tuesday number, and today's result is actually higher than yesterday's. You can decide how much faith to place in one-day totals, but these are grounds for optimism. All February 3 results, of course, will be affected by New Hampshire.
Kerry - 34%
Clark - 19%
Dean - 15%
Lieberman - 6%
The good news is that if commenters on Daily Kos threads like this one are right, this drop is the result of losing a high Tuesday number, and today's result is actually higher than yesterday's. You can decide how much faith to place in one-day totals, but these are grounds for optimism. All February 3 results, of course, will be affected by New Hampshire.
Please Judy, Please...
It sure would be neato if Judy Steinberg Dean pops up on the Sunday talk show circuit this weekend. All indications seem to show that her presence softens Dean's image and keeps him front and center. What a funny twist of late: Kerry dwarfed by the media because Dean is more interesting than Kerry's so-called message. Continuing to throw the Judy Dean bone out the back door for the big media dog will keep them from barking too. The feeling I got from the spin room at the debate in New Hampshire last night was that they all feel a little bad about the "hazing" of Howard Dean. Not all of them are yapping about their handling.
If I owned a media company other than DeanTV, or was trying to build a compelling story to sell ads and build a viewership/readership, I'd certainly be interested in building Dean back up for South Carolina. After all, it seems like the ratings dip every time Kerry starts to ramble on in the Senate, I mean, on the campaign trail. What a boring Presidential election that will be for the media party. At least with a Dean nominee one can get around him on the airplane. He may not serve Grey Poupon like John, but I'm confident Dean would keep it fun--the same way he's made politics fun for young people again.
This morning Dean continued to struggle with a cold. His voice is hoarse, low, and cracking but that tear-jerking determination of a man who's fighting for us even after being clipped is as strong as ever.
Here's a video clip of a lady who wanted to talk about Judy if you have time to check it out. When all is said and done in NH it will be interesting to see the gender breakdown:
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From the DeanTV "Fairly Balanced" Network; where we encourage everyone to engage the media in any way you can. (Londonderry, NH 1-23-04).
New Hampshire Voters Return to Dean http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/mmedia/politics/012304-2v.htm
This is being noted on the O-Blog. It's worth a watch.
Dean Draws Appreciative Looks in New Hampshire http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040123/ap_on_el_pr/dean_34
Howard Dean is getting a second look from New Hampshire voters who a week ago had written his campaign off following the Iowa Caucuses, according to a new AP report from Ron Fournier:
"When we saw him up their shouting and yelling, it put a lot of us on the fence. There's not a lot of difference between these guys so it doesn't take a lot to move us from one to another," said Ed Hennessy, 58, a retired union worker in Nashua, N.H., who deserted Dean last week.
"But I'm back in his camp. It was just a slip of the tongue, and nobody's perfect," Hennessy said. "I've got to give him credit for speaking from his heart."
"I think we've turned the corner and we're going to come back up, and the question is can we close the gap between now and Tuesday," Dean said, though it's too early for polls to reflect opinions after the debate.
Lindley-Soucy, cradling her baby at a Dean event, was not a supporter, certainly not immediately after Iowa. Suddenly, she's curious.
"He comes across as honest, even when it hurts," she said.
Fields, 66, a mental health counselor from Londonderry, said the media has made too much of the speech, a sentiment echoed by others.
"I think he was too tame to tell you the truth. I hope he doesn't back down," she said.
Gloria Kelley, 53, a union worker who attended one of his events, said she still has her doubts about Dean.
"He was over the top, wasn't he? It makes you wonder about his judgment," she said. Then a smile crept across her face, and she said, "I think I'll give him a second look, if the media doesn't mind."
"When we saw him up their shouting and yelling, it put a lot of us on the fence. There's not a lot of difference between these guys so it doesn't take a lot to move us from one to another," said Ed Hennessy, 58, a retired union worker in Nashua, N.H., who deserted Dean last week.
"But I'm back in his camp. It was just a slip of the tongue, and nobody's perfect," Hennessy said. "I've got to give him credit for speaking from his heart."
"I think we've turned the corner and we're going to come back up, and the question is can we close the gap between now and Tuesday," Dean said, though it's too early for polls to reflect opinions after the debate.
Lindley-Soucy, cradling her baby at a Dean event, was not a supporter, certainly not immediately after Iowa. Suddenly, she's curious.
"He comes across as honest, even when it hurts," she said.
Fields, 66, a mental health counselor from Londonderry, said the media has made too much of the speech, a sentiment echoed by others.
"I think he was too tame to tell you the truth. I hope he doesn't back down," she said.
Gloria Kelley, 53, a union worker who attended one of his events, said she still has her doubts about Dean.
"He was over the top, wasn't he? It makes you wonder about his judgment," she said. Then a smile crept across her face, and she said, "I think I'll give him a second look, if the media doesn't mind."
Dean says Greenspan should go http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3424599.stm
Here's something long overdue. Granted, Kucinich also expressed the same opinion in the debate, but Dean can raise the profile of Greenspan's performance far more effectively:
"I think Alan Greenspan has become too political," [Dean] said.
Dean added: "If he lacks the political courage to criticise the deficits, if he was foolish enough - and he is not a foolish man - to support the outrageous tax cuts that George Bush put through, then he has become too political and we need a new chairman of the Federal Reserve."
Passion http://abcnews.go.com/sections/Primetime/US/howard_judy_dean_transcript_040122.html
“Being in love with somebody is a terrific thing, but if you only marry somebody because they're in love … you're in love with them.That's why the divorce rate is 50 percent” -- Dr. Howard Dean
We Dean People feel passionate about our candidate. We are in love, many of us for the first time.
But you can’t make a real relationship out of passion, and that’s what most Americans want with their President, a relationship. We want to believe we can trust the President. So ordinary men remake themselves to win this trust, and the result is the usual phony politician.
Dean is trying to remake himself without changing himself, which is good. But while many pundits lay the current problem in the polls on his shoulders, and many others lay it on Trippi or the ad staff, I want to lay it somewhere else.
I’m going to lay it on us.
A lot of people are being turned-off by what we’re doing, and by the passion with which we’re doing it. Like lovers, we want it very badly, maybe too badly. And the more ardently we press our case, with letters, e-mails, home visits, phone calls, the less we look like a political movement and the more we look like a cult.
Right now no one believes in us, except for Dr. Dean and the people in Burlington. But if we’re going to make a comeback in New Hampshire, we have to go through many of the changes the Doctor himself has seemed to go through these last few days.
I mentioned some of those changes earlier today. We need to trust the people again. In our cynical age that’s tough, especially when we feel spurned by them, as we felt spurned by the people in Iowa. But in a democracy, trust in the people is the only path to success.
We have a weekend to turn things around, to present a different face to the people of New Hampshire. We need to be more comfortable with ourselves, and what we believe in. We need to make many more people comfortable with us, and with our candidate again.
Don’t blame the press. Don’t blame the candidate. Don’t blame the campaign. Don’t blame the pundits.
If you want to make people perceive us differently, look in the mirror. You want a relationship with other voters, a trusting, honest relationship. You don’t need them to fall in love with you, or with Howard Dean. So don’t beg, don’t whine, don’t believe just in money or ads or shoe leather.
Instead, believe in yourself. Testify. That’s what you need to do this weekend, testify. Testify to your faith in yourself, in your ideals, in your country, and in your fellow citizens. You have the power to do that.
You won’t change everyone. You won’t change most people. But perhaps, with faith, you can change enough opinions to make a difference, and make Howard Dean into The Next Comeback Kid.
We Dean People feel passionate about our candidate. We are in love, many of us for the first time.
But you can’t make a real relationship out of passion, and that’s what most Americans want with their President, a relationship. We want to believe we can trust the President. So ordinary men remake themselves to win this trust, and the result is the usual phony politician.
Dean is trying to remake himself without changing himself, which is good. But while many pundits lay the current problem in the polls on his shoulders, and many others lay it on Trippi or the ad staff, I want to lay it somewhere else.
I’m going to lay it on us.
A lot of people are being turned-off by what we’re doing, and by the passion with which we’re doing it. Like lovers, we want it very badly, maybe too badly. And the more ardently we press our case, with letters, e-mails, home visits, phone calls, the less we look like a political movement and the more we look like a cult.
Right now no one believes in us, except for Dr. Dean and the people in Burlington. But if we’re going to make a comeback in New Hampshire, we have to go through many of the changes the Doctor himself has seemed to go through these last few days.
I mentioned some of those changes earlier today. We need to trust the people again. In our cynical age that’s tough, especially when we feel spurned by them, as we felt spurned by the people in Iowa. But in a democracy, trust in the people is the only path to success.
We have a weekend to turn things around, to present a different face to the people of New Hampshire. We need to be more comfortable with ourselves, and what we believe in. We need to make many more people comfortable with us, and with our candidate again.
Don’t blame the press. Don’t blame the candidate. Don’t blame the campaign. Don’t blame the pundits.
If you want to make people perceive us differently, look in the mirror. You want a relationship with other voters, a trusting, honest relationship. You don’t need them to fall in love with you, or with Howard Dean. So don’t beg, don’t whine, don’t believe just in money or ads or shoe leather.
Instead, believe in yourself. Testify. That’s what you need to do this weekend, testify. Testify to your faith in yourself, in your ideals, in your country, and in your fellow citizens. You have the power to do that.
You won’t change everyone. You won’t change most people. But perhaps, with faith, you can change enough opinions to make a difference, and make Howard Dean into The Next Comeback Kid.
I Have a Huge Amount of Respect for Voters http://abcnews.go.com/sections/Primetime/US/howard_judy_dean_transcript_040122.html
“They're going to do whatever they do and I'm going to accept their verdict because that's how democracy works. And then the day after New Hampshire, we're going to go to South Carolina and Oklahoma and Arizona and New Mexico.”
On Howard Dean’s big “Comeback Night” this is the line I thought we needed most to hear again.
It came near the end of the Diane Sawyer interview. I think it defines what went wrong, and what still may be wrong with Dean Nation.
Persuasion is seduction. You’re trying to sell to cynical customers. I think many people failed to take “yes” for an answer in Iowa, and some may be failing today to take “no” for an answer in New Hampshire.
If you’re working on the campaign this weekend, you’re a salesman. The best say the product sells itself. Howard Dean proved again last night he is his own best salesman. You need to trust that, but also trust your customers as well. Don’t argue. Smile. Listen. As in Dean’s “Top 10” list last night, switch to decaf.
Even with his big Iowa bump, John Kerry didn’t get far ahead of us. Now we’ve gotten a bump. On Tuesday, I think, Howard Dean will be the Comeback Kid.
But as we work toward that moment, and the moments to come a week later, you’ve got to have faith that the voters will see what we’re selling, compare it to what else is on the Democratic shelf, and make the right choice. And if they don’t, we also have to respect that choice.
On Howard Dean’s big “Comeback Night” this is the line I thought we needed most to hear again.
It came near the end of the Diane Sawyer interview. I think it defines what went wrong, and what still may be wrong with Dean Nation.
Persuasion is seduction. You’re trying to sell to cynical customers. I think many people failed to take “yes” for an answer in Iowa, and some may be failing today to take “no” for an answer in New Hampshire.
If you’re working on the campaign this weekend, you’re a salesman. The best say the product sells itself. Howard Dean proved again last night he is his own best salesman. You need to trust that, but also trust your customers as well. Don’t argue. Smile. Listen. As in Dean’s “Top 10” list last night, switch to decaf.
Even with his big Iowa bump, John Kerry didn’t get far ahead of us. Now we’ve gotten a bump. On Tuesday, I think, Howard Dean will be the Comeback Kid.
But as we work toward that moment, and the moments to come a week later, you’ve got to have faith that the voters will see what we’re selling, compare it to what else is on the Democratic shelf, and make the right choice. And if they don’t, we also have to respect that choice.
transcript: New Hampshire Presidential Debate http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A39875-2004Jan22.html?nav=hptop_ts
There's quite a lot of ground covered here, but what caught my attention was at the beginning, where Peter Jennings asks Kerry and then Dean about how they would respond to the inevitable GOP portrayal of them as tax-raising liberal fanatics. After Kerry answered, it was Dean's turn:
Since Gephardt is out of the race, Dean is the only one left to make this argument, and he's absolutely right. He didn't mention any payroll tax cut issue in his response, but that's likely because he is waiting for the President's budget so the Dean plan can have solid numbers to compare against.
The other part that drew my interest was (of course) Sen. Edwards' response to the question about Islam. I frankly didn't have a problem with it - it's discussed in more detail over at UNMEDIA and I invite anyone who is interested to visit to discuss.
I'm going to take a different position than everybody. I think we ought to get rid of the whole Bush tax cut, and here's why: There was no middle-class tax cut.
Sixty percent of us got $304. Has your property tax gone up more than $304 because the president cut cops on the beat, refused to fund special education, refused to fund No Child Left Behind? How about your college tuition? Has that gone up more that $304 because the president cut 84,000 kids off Pell Grants in order to pay for the tax cuts for people like Ken Lay?
DEAN: Your health care, has that gone up because the president cut 500,000 kids off health care?
There was no middle-class tax cut in this country. Somebody has to stand up and say, we cannot have everything. We can't have tax cuts, pay for health care, pay for No Child Left Behind and pay for an adequate defense.
I believe we ought to have balanced budgets. I've done it 12 times. That is the real issue in this campaign. The future health of this country depends on a balanced budget. And we've got to start telling the truth and stop making promises.
Since Gephardt is out of the race, Dean is the only one left to make this argument, and he's absolutely right. He didn't mention any payroll tax cut issue in his response, but that's likely because he is waiting for the President's budget so the Dean plan can have solid numbers to compare against.
The other part that drew my interest was (of course) Sen. Edwards' response to the question about Islam. I frankly didn't have a problem with it - it's discussed in more detail over at UNMEDIA and I invite anyone who is interested to visit to discuss.
video: New Hampshire Presidential Debate rtsp://cspanrm.fplive.net/cspan/idrive/c2k012600_demdebate.rm
transcript: Judy and Howard on Primetime with Diane Sawyer http://blog.deanforamerica.com/archives/003332.html
See post below for video. Click to read the whole thing, but I was most interested in this exchange on the subject of temper (emphasis mine):
It's frustrating to read, but I think it comes across better in the actual video. It's good that Sawyer is rehashing all the idiotic accusations of temper - including dredging up his St. George's statement - because now it's been dealt with, and shown to be without merit.
Diane Sawyer: And, some of the political analysts have said that the real problem is that it tapped into another concern, it seemed to re-enforce the concern that had been brought up before about your pressure gauge. And, how you control it. And, specifically the whole issue of temper. So, can I ask you Mrs. Dean, does your husband have a temper?
Judy Dean: Not much. I mean, you know … we've been married for 23 years, and uh, he … he … he is very easy to get along with…
Diane Sawyer: Ever seen … temper, how often does he lose his temper around you?
Judy Dean: I can't remember the last time. He just doesn't get that angry. I mean, he doesn't. You know, he just … he's very kind, very considerate, and uh … it just doesn't happen.
Diane Sawyer: A couple of things on the campaign trail I want to let you address here. Uh, we saw the instance where a Republican, admittedly combative Republican, in one of the town halls asked you a question, and you had a splash (?) point, you reacted …
Howard Dean: You know, I'm not going to say what I, what the guy did, or what he didn't do, or anything like that. My attitude is this basically, uh, I believe people ought to respect each other. And, I want to hold everybody to those standards. I want to hold myself to those standards. And, I want to hold everybody else to those standards. People, you know, this anger stuff, which is, essentially (?) began last March when other campaigns started to spin it, because of the passion of the campaign, I don't really react to that, because I'm not particularly an angry person. And … but I do stand up for people's rights. There was … there was an incident where uh, I think it was an ABC camera person …
Diane Sawyer: Right.
Howard Dean: Uh, was interviewing me, and another cameraman from another station hit her on the head on purpose with his camera, because he wanted to get a better shot. I stopped the interview. I told him to behave himself, uh, and … and to knock it off, and that wasn't the way people treat each other.
Diane Sawyer: And, was there an event where you showed up and then walked out because …
Howard Dean: That's not true. Uh, what happened there, that was a Martin Luther King event. And, uh, one thing we find is that often events like this, including this tape, sort of has a life of its own, when they get in the … in the Beltway (Inaudible) What happened in that event was that 200 people, media people jumped after me. They knocked down one of the congressmen from Iowa, knocked down an aide. Uh, I was supposed to go to a Martin Luther King ceremony. When they got there, the press was so unruly, that I realized I was going to disrupt the ceremony, so we just left. Uh, you know, I do have standards for respect, and I think it's important for people to respect each other, regardless of whether they're media, or whether they're politicians, or whether they're ordinary people, and I do expect people to show respect for others.
Diane Sawyer: But it isn't the first incident in which temper has come into question, and recently a story has been circulating now about the mid-'90s, at a hockey game for your son, which ended in the police being called, and that you were one of the parents there, and then … then you apologized. You called and apologized.
Howard Dean: That (?) didn't (?) happen (?) either (?) A lot of this stuff is urban legend. Uh, there was a hockey game where there was an incident on the ice. Uh, the team was suspended because the coaches threw sticks out on the ice. Don't forget, wherever I traveled as governor, I had a police esc … a police escort. Uh, so I think that if there had been a problem, that I would have been taken out by my own police guys for my safety. A lot of this stuff is about urban legend. And, it happens because uh, other people have observed (?) uh, some of the things I do as anger. I will stand up for what I believe in, and I will stand up to protect weaker people, uh, but I don't often blow up. I think I did not yell at a staff member in 12 years when I was governor. That's just not what I do.
Diane Sawyer: So did you lose your temper at the hockey …
Howard Dean: I never, there certainly was no fighting, there was no … it was nothing of that sort. I don't … I don't remember exactly what this is talking about, but I've never … never been kicked out of a game, I never have uh, you know, been uh, escorted out by any police or anything like that. I had my own police to follow me around in case there were any problems with other people attacking me. There have never been any fights. So, I'm not sure exactly what the …
Diane Sawyer: You don't remember if you blew?
Howard Dean: I don't remember any, uh, blowing up, no.
Diane Sawyer: Because … I looked as far back as what (?), St. George boarding school …
Howard Dean: Uh-huh.
Diane Sawyer: And, I'm looking at something you wrote about yourself at St. George boarding school. And, you said, if you want to get to know me, you should be the curious type who can put up with a temper.
Howard Dean: I think if you have a temper when you're 16, that's not saying anything about (Inaudible) when you're 50.
Diane Sawyer: And, you wouldn't consider a person who then (?) has had a lifelong, uh, what expression of temper?
Howard Dean: Well, let's look at what you're saying. You're talking about a hockey game that may or may not have uh, happened. You're talking about a tape in which I was exuberant. And, what else are you talking about?
Diane Sawyer: (Sighs)
Howard Dean: I mean, you're making the case …
Diane Sawyer: Well, no let me ask you …
Howard Dean: And I'm saying, you know, have I ever blown up? Yes. Did I blow up once at a staff member in 12 years? Not ever. So, I mean, I understand your desire to make the case, as … as the all the other campaigns would like to, but the fact is, that it's what always happened. It's a small modicum of truth, and then it gets … grown (?)
It's frustrating to read, but I think it comes across better in the actual video. It's good that Sawyer is rehashing all the idiotic accusations of temper - including dredging up his St. George's statement - because now it's been dealt with, and shown to be without merit.
video: Judy and Howard on Primetime with Diane Sawyer http://www.deanforamerica.com/judyandhoward
The Diane Sawyer Interview
Low / Med / High : RealPlayer
Low / Med / High : WindowsMedia
Low / Med / High : QuickTime
Thursday, January 22, 2004
Debate open thread
The floor is yours.
Turning a negative into a positive http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1484529/20040122/aphex_twin.jhtml?headlines=true
By now everyone's had the chance to have some fun at our expense thanks to the Governor's rockin' post-caucus speech. But I think it's pretty cool that the grassroots have taken that moment and turned it into something fun and positive. MTVNews covers the Dean remix phenomena and provides links to some of the remixes as well as an actual video clip of the moment. Watch the clip and you can plainly see Dean isn't angry, especially when he laughs heartily at the end.
As Aziz suggested, I've mirrored the remixes on my web server, and you can grab them all here. Have fun with this; some of the mixes are great, especially the one called "dean2", which IMO should be played at the beginning of every Dean rally from here on out.
Enjoy!
And don't forget we've got a trifecta on television tonight. The debate begins at 8pm eastern on FAUX, then Drs Howard and Judy Dean will appear on ABC for a sit-down interview with Diane Sawyer at 10pm eastern, and finally, our candidate makes an appearance on Letterman tonight at10:30pm 11:30pm eastern. We have three opportunities to make our case to the American public tonight, and I'm hoping we take full advantage of all of them.
As Aziz suggested, I've mirrored the remixes on my web server, and you can grab them all here. Have fun with this; some of the mixes are great, especially the one called "dean2", which IMO should be played at the beginning of every Dean rally from here on out.
Enjoy!
And don't forget we've got a trifecta on television tonight. The debate begins at 8pm eastern on FAUX, then Drs Howard and Judy Dean will appear on ABC for a sit-down interview with Diane Sawyer at 10pm eastern, and finally, our candidate makes an appearance on Letterman tonight at
GOP Thieves in Congress http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2004/01/22/infiltration_of_files_seen_as_extensive/
The Boston Globe's shocking story exposes a GOP plan that dwarfs the significance of Watergate:
Josh Marshall is already all over this one. Dean needs to be on the case with this story. It's powerful ammunition. IT's exactly what the voters need to hear, and the debate is likely the only way to inject teh story into the media spotlight. I castigated Dean for not following through on the Plame affair and remain disappointed. I hope that he runs wit this new ball more efectively - and doing so will prove to NH voters that he is serious about exposing the President and the GOP for what they are.
Republican staff members of the US Senate Judiciary Commitee infiltrated opposition computer files for a year, monitoring secret strategy memos and periodically passing on copies to the media, Senate officials told The Globe.
From the spring of 2002 until at least April 2003, members of the GOP committee staff exploited a computer glitch that allowed them to access restricted Democratic communications without a password. Trolling through hundreds of memos, they were able to read talking points and accounts of private meetings discussing which judicial nominees Democrats would fight -- and with what tactics.
[...]
With the help of forensic computer experts from General Dynamics and the US Secret Service, his office has interviewed about 120 people to date and seized more than half a dozen computers -- including four Judiciary servers, one server from the office of Senate majority leader Bill Frist of Tennessee, and several desktop hard drives.
Josh Marshall is already all over this one. Dean needs to be on the case with this story. It's powerful ammunition. IT's exactly what the voters need to hear, and the debate is likely the only way to inject teh story into the media spotlight. I castigated Dean for not following through on the Plame affair and remain disappointed. I hope that he runs wit this new ball more efectively - and doing so will prove to NH voters that he is serious about exposing the President and the GOP for what they are.
Where Clinton's campaign stood in January 1992 http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/candidates/democrat/clinton/campaign.92.shtml
worth reading for much-needed perspective. Also note that Clinton lost both Iowa and New Hampshire!
Note that Howard and Judy are doing an interview with Diana Sawyer on Primetime tonight (ABC)...
Note that Howard and Judy are doing an interview with Diana Sawyer on Primetime tonight (ABC)...
What Dean needs to say tonight http://www.hughhewitt.com/index.htm#postid228
Hugh Hewitt imagines the perfect introductory speech to tonight's debate by Dean.
That's the right attitude - and note how Hewitt draws a circle around Dean that explictly includes the other candidates. The question is, does teh campaign read blogs like this anymore, or has their own attention to the net-roots been too dominated by their own shiny echo chamber?
"On Monday night I spent 15 seconds trying to fire up my volunteers who had a disappointing night --congratulations John and John, but overconfidence is a dangerous thing, as I've learned-- I spent 15 seconds pointing at signs and recognizing people from faraway states who'd driven thousands of miles in some cases to stand on corners in sub-zero temps, and I fire them up and try to show that I am not down for the count because they're not down for the count, and television, radio, Matt Drudge and Rush Limbaugh and your network, Brit, try to turn me into a deranged psycho. Fred Barnes called me cracked, for goodness sake. I've been a medical doctor treating crisis cases in emergency rooms for twenty years, and a governor making life and death decisions for ten years, and the American media, threatened by my message that big corporate interests are out of control--and there is no bigger corporate interest than Fox-- decides to marginalize me using a quarter minute of tape."
"Now this process of Karl Rove orchestrated, media-led destruction of the loyal opposition has been going on for months now, but it is going to end here in New Hampshire. The voters of New Hampshire have been around the block a few times, and they know what's going on, and crucially, they know what's at stake. If the media knocks me off, then it will be John Kerry's turn and we will hear endlessly about his protests of the Vietnam War and his quote "French tastes" close quotes, but we won't hear about John's genuine and moving heroism in the face of brutal fire. We'll hear about John Edwards being a plaintiff's attorney fueled by plaintiff's attorneys all over the country as though serving the severely injured is a bad thing, We'll hear about General Clark's anonymous enemies in the Pentagon and we'll overlook his leadership in halting genocide. All of this and more, because all of us threaten the money, Brit, we all threaten the money. This president has made it very lucrative to be Republican, Brit, and those of us who get wind in our sails come under fire, and its not fair."
That's the right attitude - and note how Hewitt draws a circle around Dean that explictly includes the other candidates. The question is, does teh campaign read blogs like this anymore, or has their own attention to the net-roots been too dominated by their own shiny echo chamber?
The Debate http://www.liberaloasis.com/archives/011804.htm#012204
Been awhile since I've posted -- the post-Iowa roller coaster and the ensuing increased pressure for our Mass for Dean GOTV efforts in nextdoor NH, coupled with all of life's other pressures, has been a tad wild.
I'd like to do an Iowa recap post, just to offer my perspective on what we saw on the ground there, what we experienced, especially at the caucus we attended in downtown Des Moines, and at the Monday rally. Oh and getting to meet Anna too! :-)
But right now, there are more important fish to fry. The debate tonight is critical, obviously. All manner of advice is flying around the Net and no doubt the staff at DFA are feeling a bit overwhelmed. But heeding this advice is really important, in my opinion. Per usual, Liberal Oasis offers some really great tips to all the big four candidates (Clark, Dean, Edward, and Kerry).
Here's LO's advice to Dean:
I'd like to do an Iowa recap post, just to offer my perspective on what we saw on the ground there, what we experienced, especially at the caucus we attended in downtown Des Moines, and at the Monday rally. Oh and getting to meet Anna too! :-)
But right now, there are more important fish to fry. The debate tonight is critical, obviously. All manner of advice is flying around the Net and no doubt the staff at DFA are feeling a bit overwhelmed. But heeding this advice is really important, in my opinion. Per usual, Liberal Oasis offers some really great tips to all the big four candidates (Clark, Dean, Edward, and Kerry).
Here's LO's advice to Dean:
Ahh, the speech.
Dean had the right idea with his post-caucus speech, showing confidence and determination.
But of course, it was not exactly executed right.
There were concerns that he wasn’t presidential and likeable enough, and he walked right into them. The resulting spin has been brutal.
What to do then?
First, he should take a page from Reagan.
In the first debate with Walter Mondale in 1984, Reagan’s performance was so shaky, doubts grew about his old age and his faculties.
His 26 point lead in the polls was cut in half. Mondale was back in it.
But in the next debate, when Reagan was asked about his age, he was ready. With perfect comedic timing, he said:
I want you to know that I will not make age an issue of this campaign.
I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent’s youth and inexperience.
Not only did the crowd roar in laughter, the joke reversed the doubts that he was losing it, because he put himself in command of the room.
(Mondale later said he pretty much knew it was over at that moment.)
A great joke about the “Iowa Yell” could do the same for Dean.
He once was the most likeable candidate, the one best connecting with the people.
Showing he can skillfully laugh at himself would put to rest notions that he’s lost it, and remind voters about his likeable traits.
Of course, the joke has to be great, and has to be delivered great.
A failed joke is painful to watch. That’s why jokes are risky.
But that’s also why they pay off so well when they work.
After that, Dean needs to simply be presidential.
He’s been low-key the last two days, but a low-key debate performance would be the worst thing he can do.
It would be akin to Al Gore’s post-sigh debate against Dubya. He would look weak and defeated.
Dean at his best has a novel charisma. It needs to shine tonight.
video: The Iowa Caucus speech - a reason for PRIDE rtsp://video.c-span.org/project/c04/c04011904_dean.rm
Remember something. For a month now the media has been full-bore against Dean, willingly receptive to smear stories fed to it by the RNC. But we were able to stand astride that onslaught, because we believed in what Dean actually said, as opposed to what was reported. We believed in what Dean actually stood for, as opposed to what was inferred by the pundits. We believed in Dean's actual record, as opposed to the hyperbolic spin from enemies across the political spectrum.
One loss in Iowa doesn't change any of that. What it did so was perhaps shake our confidence a bit, as it should. But in that moment of weakness, we probably let the media's continued onslaught penetrate past our defenses. But we have to remember, that the media coverage is as blatantly opposed to Dean as it ever was, and the rush to judgement about Dean's post-Iowa caucus rally speech has been the crown jewel of their efforts.
So watch the thing yourself. Dean starts to speak at 6 minutes in. And be armed with the truth again.
That's a video that the official blog should be putting front and center, instead of trying to wish it away. There should be PRIDE about this video, especially in light of Joe Trippi's own words:
It's all about US, remember. And that's the energy we have to carry through into New Hampshire.
One loss in Iowa doesn't change any of that. What it did so was perhaps shake our confidence a bit, as it should. But in that moment of weakness, we probably let the media's continued onslaught penetrate past our defenses. But we have to remember, that the media coverage is as blatantly opposed to Dean as it ever was, and the rush to judgement about Dean's post-Iowa caucus rally speech has been the crown jewel of their efforts.
So watch the thing yourself. Dean starts to speak at 6 minutes in. And be armed with the truth again.
Howard Dean Reaction to Iowa Caucus Results
Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean reacts to the results of the Iowa caucuses.
1/19/2004: DES MOINES, IA: 20 min.
That's a video that the official blog should be putting front and center, instead of trying to wish it away. There should be PRIDE about this video, especially in light of Joe Trippi's own words:
I’ve been around campaigns for a long time. On most campaigns, if you come in third in Iowa with 18% and you go to the after party, you’re lucky to find 4 people there. Most every one by the time it’s over has left to find another party and another campaign.
But on Monday night Howard Dean walked in to the ballroom in Des Moines and there were 3500 people there. And the energy was higher than most victory parties I’ve been to.
The Governor looked out at the room and saw 3500 people who had come from all across the country because they believed in changing their country and he wanted them to know how proud he was of them and their efforts. And he wanted them to know that we’re going on no matter what.
He wasn’t thinking about the cameras. It was the people right in front of him who had done so much because they believe in a better America that he was speaking to.
It's all about US, remember. And that's the energy we have to carry through into New Hampshire.
open thread: what we want at tonight's debate
The debate tonight is where Dean will win, or lose, New Hampshire. It's a fair assessment to say that the campaign went off-message in Iowa - instead of issues, leadership, and optimism, it was about crappy ads, aggressive volunteers, inexperienced caucusgoers, and negative campaigning.
What Dean needs to do tonight is present his State of the Campaign - to take personal charge, to show to all the soft-support out there (which in New Hampsire, has switched to Kerry) that there is more to Dean than the Yeeeeagh! which is so easily caricatured.
The campaign publicly says it intends to change, but I don't think making Dean into a boring wonk is the right answer. What do YOU want? Its clear that the campaign needs to listen to us more - but first we need to actually say what we think.
What Dean needs to do tonight is present his State of the Campaign - to take personal charge, to show to all the soft-support out there (which in New Hampsire, has switched to Kerry) that there is more to Dean than the Yeeeeagh! which is so easily caricatured.
The campaign publicly says it intends to change, but I don't think making Dean into a boring wonk is the right answer. What do YOU want? Its clear that the campaign needs to listen to us more - but first we need to actually say what we think.
Humility is a Virtue http://www.boston.com/news/politics/president/articles/2004/01/22/for_dean_humility_can_refuel_campaign/
This is a great column in today's Boston Globe - whether you believe that Dean's speech was over the top, or not (or the media spin of Dean as "angry") - it's clear that voters would like some reassurance about the man's temperament. Dean would be well served in his remarks tonight to not only talk about his plans for the country, but to make it clear that he is aware enough, and confident enough to let NH voters (and the rest of the country) that he understands these concerns, put his past remarks in proper context (but not "excuse" them), and finally maybe even give the concession speech he should have given in Iowa. A brief explanation and a few graceful remarks congratulating Sen. Kerry and Sen. Edwards on their victory, for keeping the discussion positive, and that "all the Democrats up here on stage care greatly for the future of this country - we are joined in the pursuit of a real alternative to the current administration, etc." would demonstrate the self-awareness and humility that can buoy Dean in the last few days before the vote.
I also happen to think that it cannot hurt Dean to note that a lot of the discussion about his candidacy has shifted from substance to style, and to re-emphasize (as he's been doing effectively the last couple of days) that he's in this race to balance the federal budget, provide health care, and reinitiate a multilateral foreign policy. The debate shouldn't be about how many internet supporters there are, or how much money is raised, or how big (or charged up) a rally is - this debate should be about our kids and the debt their being saddled with, the air and water they'll inherit, and their relative safety in the world. It's high time to get back to the substance of this campaign and continue working for Dean's vision.
Let me be clear - this is not encouraging Dean or any of his supporters to concede anything, nor is it a somber occasion. I think Dean should smile tonight, relax, the pressure is off. He should just be himself, acknowledge the concerns about his temperament, focus on moving the campaign and his platform forward. If these things come together, I believe Dean can still capture New Hampshire and shock the establishment.
How about others? What's your take on tonight's debate and how it might be handled?
I also happen to think that it cannot hurt Dean to note that a lot of the discussion about his candidacy has shifted from substance to style, and to re-emphasize (as he's been doing effectively the last couple of days) that he's in this race to balance the federal budget, provide health care, and reinitiate a multilateral foreign policy. The debate shouldn't be about how many internet supporters there are, or how much money is raised, or how big (or charged up) a rally is - this debate should be about our kids and the debt their being saddled with, the air and water they'll inherit, and their relative safety in the world. It's high time to get back to the substance of this campaign and continue working for Dean's vision.
Let me be clear - this is not encouraging Dean or any of his supporters to concede anything, nor is it a somber occasion. I think Dean should smile tonight, relax, the pressure is off. He should just be himself, acknowledge the concerns about his temperament, focus on moving the campaign and his platform forward. If these things come together, I believe Dean can still capture New Hampshire and shock the establishment.
How about others? What's your take on tonight's debate and how it might be handled?
Daily Review
Dean Supporters, Don't Give Up
Letters
Can He Come Back?
Dean's Campaign Alters Approach
Democrats Woo New Hampshire as Race Heats Up
Dems gear up in New Hampshire
Letters
Can He Come Back?
Dean's Campaign Alters Approach
Democrats Woo New Hampshire as Race Heats Up
Dems gear up in New Hampshire
Wednesday, January 21, 2004
Boston Herald: Kerry Takes Strong Lead http://news.bostonherald.com/national/national.bg?articleid=596
The Boston Herald is reporting that Sen. Kerry has lunged forward with a commanding ten point lead over Gov. Dean.
Sen. John F. Kerry has catapulted into a 10-point New Hampshire lead six days before the nation's first primary, bouncing out of Iowa and over longtime frontrunner Howard Dean, according to a new Boston Herald poll.
The Massachusetts senator leads Dean 31 percent to 21 percent, with a slipping Wesley K. Clark at 16 percent after skipping the Iowa caucuses.
DFA Conference Call From Tonight: Please Come To New Hampshire Now.
A conference call was held tonight to rally supporters to get to New Hampshire and answer questions about the direction the campaign is going in.
US Senator Patrick Leahy, DFA National Finance Chairman Terry Learman and Vermont Chair Dashiell Flynn hosted the call.
Eager supporters immediately clamored about what they think needs to change after the results in Iowa and asked what they could do to help in New Hampshire.
"Dean should put on a jacket again and look more presidential," said one concerned caller.
"Dean has to start taking credit for setting the stage and driving the debate for all these other bozos," said another. "We have to talk about why Bush and Rove are afraid of Dean!"
Many others wanted to advise Dean handlers to immediately get the Governor out on the Comedy circuit to take advantage of the buzz about his Iowa exit speech.
When DFA Finance Committee Chairman Terry Learman joined the call he said in his 56 years he had "never seen a better campaign office--life charged situation" than the one he is seeing from Manchester headquarters from where he called.
"But it takes a lot of fuel to run the engine," said Learman. "besides money--we need people to swarm to New Hampshire right now."
In the question and answer session, Learman responded that, since Iowa, "the internet alone has raised over $1 million. Fundraising has not dropped at all, and that number doesn't include the checks being mailed in."
Learman said that in one day this week $280,000 was raised.
"What's even more impressive is that we have more donors out there than ALL of the campaigns combined with an average of about $75 per donation," said Learman. "Howard Dean IS campaign finance reform."
When asked what specifically needed to change after Iowa, Learman said that "we may have gotten off message. Dean got caught up in a perfect political storm with a withering display of attacks--the likes that I've never seen before. We're coming out with new ads (in NH) and will emphasize our positive message."
Senator Leahy had called in from Washington, D.C. and asked callers to join him on a bus leaving from Burlington for New Hampshire, or simply to follow him and others to get out to New Hampshire and fight for Howard the same way he's been fighting for all Americans.
"We have 6 days before the New Hampshire primary," said Leahy. "Vermonters know Howard best and the people in New Hampshire need to hear from their neighbors and others across the country about what a great guy he is."
Crossposted at DeanTV.org
US Senator Patrick Leahy, DFA National Finance Chairman Terry Learman and Vermont Chair Dashiell Flynn hosted the call.
Eager supporters immediately clamored about what they think needs to change after the results in Iowa and asked what they could do to help in New Hampshire.
"Dean should put on a jacket again and look more presidential," said one concerned caller.
"Dean has to start taking credit for setting the stage and driving the debate for all these other bozos," said another. "We have to talk about why Bush and Rove are afraid of Dean!"
Many others wanted to advise Dean handlers to immediately get the Governor out on the Comedy circuit to take advantage of the buzz about his Iowa exit speech.
When DFA Finance Committee Chairman Terry Learman joined the call he said in his 56 years he had "never seen a better campaign office--life charged situation" than the one he is seeing from Manchester headquarters from where he called.
"But it takes a lot of fuel to run the engine," said Learman. "besides money--we need people to swarm to New Hampshire right now."
In the question and answer session, Learman responded that, since Iowa, "the internet alone has raised over $1 million. Fundraising has not dropped at all, and that number doesn't include the checks being mailed in."
Learman said that in one day this week $280,000 was raised.
"What's even more impressive is that we have more donors out there than ALL of the campaigns combined with an average of about $75 per donation," said Learman. "Howard Dean IS campaign finance reform."
When asked what specifically needed to change after Iowa, Learman said that "we may have gotten off message. Dean got caught up in a perfect political storm with a withering display of attacks--the likes that I've never seen before. We're coming out with new ads (in NH) and will emphasize our positive message."
Senator Leahy had called in from Washington, D.C. and asked callers to join him on a bus leaving from Burlington for New Hampshire, or simply to follow him and others to get out to New Hampshire and fight for Howard the same way he's been fighting for all Americans.
"We have 6 days before the New Hampshire primary," said Leahy. "Vermonters know Howard best and the people in New Hampshire need to hear from their neighbors and others across the country about what a great guy he is."
Crossposted at DeanTV.org
The "Positive Candidates"
Taking my country back: the New Hampshire experience
Since I first became aware of Howard Dean's candidacy, I knew he was the guy who could beat Bush in November. He's a passionate, sincere, experienced executive who tells the truth. In my mind, his message resonates.
That's why, on Friday, I'm hopping on a plane from Oakland to Boston, getting a ride up to New Hampshire, and volunteering for the Dean campaign until Primary Day. I'm taking a few days off from my job at the California League of Conservation Voters (as a phone canvasser and web designer, at this point) to put my money, and my time, and my effort, where my mouth is.
Though I have donated to Dean, and posted a link or two to this site and the campaign site from my own website [beware amusing Flash intro], and told my friends and family about Dean, I felt I needed to do more. This election year is a critical turning point--four more years of Bush means four more years of Orwellian lies and policies designed to benefit only the bottom line of his corporate cronies, with no regard for the health or economic prosperity of the vast majority of Americans. (The fact that so many people don't grasp that truth blows my mind.)
Last Thursday night, it hit me. If this election is so important to me, I'd better do as much as I can to help turn it in my direction. Sure, I'm already doing a lot, getting new people involved in an influential California environmental group every day, electing the best environmental leaders to Sacramento, keeping them accountable, and doing what we can to beat Bush in 2004. (See the Presidential Environmental Forum in L.A., where I got to shake Dr. Dean's hand and tell him I voted for him on MoveOn.org.) Suddenly, though, it didn't seem like enough. I realized that I need to make an immediate impact where I'm needed most. (I also want to see what a presidential campaign is like at the ground level.) It was too late to go to Iowa--tickets were too expensive, I had missed a lot of events, I hadn't taken time off work, etc. However, I found a cheap ticket to Boston, emailed my boss (who was very encouraging, of course), and on Friday my itinerary was set: Arrive Friday evening, January 23rd; leave Wednesday morning, January 28th, knowing who won New Hampshire.
I actually hope to walk precincts in the sub-freezing New England air. Having grown up in Wisconsin and field canvassed for a non-profit in Minneapolis in the dead of winter, I am both well-prepared and perversely nostalgic for that kind of brutal self-punishment. (If I end up on the phones, that's okay, too.)
If all goes well, I'll post daily updates from New Hampshire about my volunteer experience. Thanks to Aziz--my college hall-mate 10 years ago--for giving me the opportunity to make a guest appearance on this blog.
Go Dean! We will win in New Hampshire!
That's why, on Friday, I'm hopping on a plane from Oakland to Boston, getting a ride up to New Hampshire, and volunteering for the Dean campaign until Primary Day. I'm taking a few days off from my job at the California League of Conservation Voters (as a phone canvasser and web designer, at this point) to put my money, and my time, and my effort, where my mouth is.
Though I have donated to Dean, and posted a link or two to this site and the campaign site from my own website [beware amusing Flash intro], and told my friends and family about Dean, I felt I needed to do more. This election year is a critical turning point--four more years of Bush means four more years of Orwellian lies and policies designed to benefit only the bottom line of his corporate cronies, with no regard for the health or economic prosperity of the vast majority of Americans. (The fact that so many people don't grasp that truth blows my mind.)
Last Thursday night, it hit me. If this election is so important to me, I'd better do as much as I can to help turn it in my direction. Sure, I'm already doing a lot, getting new people involved in an influential California environmental group every day, electing the best environmental leaders to Sacramento, keeping them accountable, and doing what we can to beat Bush in 2004. (See the Presidential Environmental Forum in L.A., where I got to shake Dr. Dean's hand and tell him I voted for him on MoveOn.org.) Suddenly, though, it didn't seem like enough. I realized that I need to make an immediate impact where I'm needed most. (I also want to see what a presidential campaign is like at the ground level.) It was too late to go to Iowa--tickets were too expensive, I had missed a lot of events, I hadn't taken time off work, etc. However, I found a cheap ticket to Boston, emailed my boss (who was very encouraging, of course), and on Friday my itinerary was set: Arrive Friday evening, January 23rd; leave Wednesday morning, January 28th, knowing who won New Hampshire.
I actually hope to walk precincts in the sub-freezing New England air. Having grown up in Wisconsin and field canvassed for a non-profit in Minneapolis in the dead of winter, I am both well-prepared and perversely nostalgic for that kind of brutal self-punishment. (If I end up on the phones, that's okay, too.)
If all goes well, I'll post daily updates from New Hampshire about my volunteer experience. Thanks to Aziz--my college hall-mate 10 years ago--for giving me the opportunity to make a guest appearance on this blog.
Go Dean! We will win in New Hampshire!
Introducing the DeanWiki http://www.seedwiki.com/page.cfm?wikiid=4228&doc=HowardDean
You may have noticed a new link at the bottom footer of each individual post, that reads "Wiki" - this is a link to a new collaborative tool I have setup to act as a kind of mega-commenting system. Rather than indexing comments to a specific post, it's more free form. I encourage you to click the Wiki link and take a look around. And start adding your own content!
ONE DOWN, SIX TO GO
I'm going to keep repeating this mantra until it sinks in to the rattled Dean supporters out there. Think about this. Gephardt was supposed to win Iowa - he HAD to win Iowa - in order to stay in the race. It shouldn't matter to us whether Kerry & Edwards went 1-2. What matters was that we knocked Gephardt out of the race. On the ground, it really was the Gephardt grassroots versus the Dean grassroots, and we won. Our inexperienced, political newbies fought the "strong" Iowa contender, the somewhat-hometown favorite, and we won. We made it.
Looking ahead to New Hampshire, it's a must-win state for John Kerry. I don't know if he'll drop if he doesn't win, but he probably should because beyond NH the landscape changes and it's not Kerry-friendly. If we can knock out Kerry in NH, that is another victory, then it on to the south where Clark and Edwards will duke it out. If we can pick up a few 1st and 2nd place finishes on Feb 3, we'll head into seriously Dean-friendly territory on March 2.
Remember folks, we have the money to run the ads, the grassroots support to fill the volunteer spots, and the message that will beat George W Bush. Don't give up hope now. Have faith; we can still win this thing.
Looking ahead to New Hampshire, it's a must-win state for John Kerry. I don't know if he'll drop if he doesn't win, but he probably should because beyond NH the landscape changes and it's not Kerry-friendly. If we can knock out Kerry in NH, that is another victory, then it on to the south where Clark and Edwards will duke it out. If we can pick up a few 1st and 2nd place finishes on Feb 3, we'll head into seriously Dean-friendly territory on March 2.
Remember folks, we have the money to run the ads, the grassroots support to fill the volunteer spots, and the message that will beat George W Bush. Don't give up hope now. Have faith; we can still win this thing.
Vote! http://www.cnn.com/wolf
Question of the day:
Can Howard Dean revitalize his campaign after his loss in Iowa?
So far, no is winning. Go vote!
Can Howard Dean revitalize his campaign after his loss in Iowa?
So far, no is winning. Go vote!
Random pictures from the Val Air http://archives.annatopia.com/000526.html
here are some random pictures from the val air rally after the caucus.
The Real Subject
How are the fallen from this war different?
Here is one, the late Capt. Kimberly Hampton.
She was 27 when the helicopter she was piloting crashed in Iraq on January 2, weeks after Saddam Hussein’s capture.
Capt. Hampton was an honors graduate of Presbyterian College, a champion tennis player. Her family is proud of her. "Kimberly was doing what she wanted to do.... She believed in the cause; we still do," her father said.
But what was the cause?
While you consider that, multiply her sacrifice by 598. That’s the total of Allied deaths since the war began last March 21. Add 2,904 wounded, many grievously. Add an untold number of Iraqi civilians, American authorities no longer calculate the number.
What victory did Capt. Hampton’s death achieve?
We know, from Bush himself, that he targeted Saddam Hussein from the day he took office. Bush's own Treasury Secretary has testified to what really happened. The Army War College now calls the Iraq War a distraction from the real conflict..
Howard Dean says, get our allies in, get Arab troops in, win the peace.
Howard Dean says most of the September 11 hijackers were Saudis.
Howard Dean says, renew the search for Osama Bin Laden, become independent of Saudi oil, and stand up to the monarchy whose schools taught the terrorists.
George W. Bush has scheduled no elections in Iraq, and plans a June 30 transfer of power even with no democracy, and no assurance of real security.
Howard Dean said no to this policy when it took enormous courage to say no. He stands his ground today against politicians who bought the Administration’s lies and spin.
Do you have the courage to stand up for him now? Or did Capt. Hampton die in vain?
Dean Val-Air Remix http://barlowfarms.com/howarddean.mp3
heh, this is pretty entertaining. YYYYEEEEWAAAAGGGGHHHHH! Screw what the media say. This is the attitude I want.
(please distribute and leave a link to your mirror in the comments. here's mine)
(please distribute and leave a link to your mirror in the comments. here's mine)
Dean is the One
Yesterday I was watching Dean speaking in New Hampshire, and he stated his fear that Bush was preparing to pull out of Iraq early for political purposes leaving a state infested with newly arrived al-Qaeda who were a danger to the United States. Now for one thing, as I said here, I think he's exactly right. But more importantly, he says straight out, even though the politically safe thing to do would probably be to appeal to the sort of latent isolationism Pat Buchanan rode to New England victories of the past. And once again it was clear that after spending a year agonizing over which Democrat to support, I picked the right guy.
The State of the Union speech was full of fuzz, and the foreign policy stuff was as fuzzy as anything else. But the facts are that there is only one candidate whom I trust to call Bush on this stuff, simply because he's been doing it from the beginning. Note this: I often see people on Daily Kos saying how tough it will be to win with the possibility of superficial progress in Iraq. On a political level, Howard Dean just showed (in a very statesmanlike tone, I might add) the strategy and the teeth to do exactly that. Certain people will try to say that Democrats are using Iraq casualties for political advantage, but it's the Republicans who were sick enough to schedule their convention so as to turn September 11 into a campaign event while trying to cut combat pay for soldiers they sent into the wrong war at the wrong time as the Taliban creep back. They have overreached, and we can take them down as long as we don't nod during the debates and take pride for supporting everything Bush has done while waiting to change the subject.
And that is one reason why I'm still here. That is why we're getting new supporters like this one. Indeed, this post from a self-described "diehard Bushie" really shocked me this morning, and I took a bit of time before figuring out he was serious. We win this election and get all of the wonderful Howard Dean domestic agenda partly by running to the right of Bush on foreign policy, not by agreeing with him or counting on military experience to mount a Max Cleland-like defense. And for all of you who have been working on this campaign through all the long months when no one gave him a chance but now feel it's too hard to make lemonade out of Iowa lemons, then I say do what you have to do. I'm proud to stand as one of the faithful, and after we come through in New Hampshire, you will be more than welcome to come join us as we take back the White House in 2004.
UPDATE: You know, this didn't come out right yesterday, and I was afraid to say it today for tone reasons, but I'll bury it here just to get it off my chest. Dean's Val Air speech may or may not have been a disaster. But he did it for us. Don't stab him in the back over that until you've given him a chance to recover. At this point, I think we've all invested enough that we owe it both to ourselves and the campaign not to give up over polls and speculation.
The State of the Union speech was full of fuzz, and the foreign policy stuff was as fuzzy as anything else. But the facts are that there is only one candidate whom I trust to call Bush on this stuff, simply because he's been doing it from the beginning. Note this: I often see people on Daily Kos saying how tough it will be to win with the possibility of superficial progress in Iraq. On a political level, Howard Dean just showed (in a very statesmanlike tone, I might add) the strategy and the teeth to do exactly that. Certain people will try to say that Democrats are using Iraq casualties for political advantage, but it's the Republicans who were sick enough to schedule their convention so as to turn September 11 into a campaign event while trying to cut combat pay for soldiers they sent into the wrong war at the wrong time as the Taliban creep back. They have overreached, and we can take them down as long as we don't nod during the debates and take pride for supporting everything Bush has done while waiting to change the subject.
And that is one reason why I'm still here. That is why we're getting new supporters like this one. Indeed, this post from a self-described "diehard Bushie" really shocked me this morning, and I took a bit of time before figuring out he was serious. We win this election and get all of the wonderful Howard Dean domestic agenda partly by running to the right of Bush on foreign policy, not by agreeing with him or counting on military experience to mount a Max Cleland-like defense. And for all of you who have been working on this campaign through all the long months when no one gave him a chance but now feel it's too hard to make lemonade out of Iowa lemons, then I say do what you have to do. I'm proud to stand as one of the faithful, and after we come through in New Hampshire, you will be more than welcome to come join us as we take back the White House in 2004.
UPDATE: You know, this didn't come out right yesterday, and I was afraid to say it today for tone reasons, but I'll bury it here just to get it off my chest. Dean's Val Air speech may or may not have been a disaster. But he did it for us. Don't stab him in the back over that until you've given him a chance to recover. At this point, I think we've all invested enough that we owe it both to ourselves and the campaign not to give up over polls and speculation.
The media admits to manipulating the message
I'm not really sure how to go about imparting this information, but since I have absolutely no alliance to any media outlet I am just going to spill it and put it out there "as is". Yall will just have to bear with me as I get this all out. Here goes.
At the Val Air party Monday night and over the weekend in Iowa, I pretended to jump the shark a few times so I could get an inside line on how the media is operating during this election cycle. I had a few long conversations with Candy Crowley, Paul Begala, Tucker Carlson, and some guy from FAUX (I have blocked his name out, probably a natural reaction due to his employer). Over the weekend I also had an opportunity to discuss the election with Mort Kondrake, Tim Russert, and some field reporters from NBC, CNN, and FAUX.
Basically, all one has to do is fawn over them until they drop their guard, then you go in for the kill and asked some real questions.
The consensus is this: the media are all pulling for a Dean v. Bush election because otherwise they'd be bored to tears. On a daily basis, they have to come up with ways to keep the election exciting - for them. Whether it's spinning Dean's Val Air speech as "angry" or pounding Wesley Clark for "being a Republican", they are doing what they can to keep themselves entertained. Isn't that pathetic? They aren't reporting the facts and they have no intention whatsoever of reporting the facts as long as it gets in the way of entertainment.
It's more entertaining for them to portray "Angry Dean versus Everyman Bush" than it is to talk about "People Power versus Big Corporations". It's more entertaining to talk about "The New McGovern versus the Strong-on-Security Bush" than it is to discuss "Sound Fiscal Management versus Busted Budgets and Unfunded Mandates". The media just wants to create characters. They don't care about presenting the public with the real issues that we face, because as one pundit said to me, "Discussing policy is boring".
The one person who provided the most insight into how they operate was my new favorite conservative, Tucker Carlson. I found that off-camera, Tucker was earnest and truthful. I can see why many left-of-center pundits consider him to be likable. But once he gets on-camera, the schtick comes out. Like last night when he said (with a more than heavy dose of sarcasm) on CNN that Dean's Val Air speech made women and children "run screaming from the room". Having spoken with him and gotten his take, I could see right through that little smirk of his (and in fact I laughed out loud when he said that), but the majority of the American public isn't privy to this information. They probably don't realise that the media is just playing a giant game of Calvinball with America. We must make sure that our fellow Americans understand that the media is manipulating this race.
Tucker also told me he hoped that Dean would win because it would "give Americans a real choice". He also said that he feels the other candidates are boring, and that because the media has to cover this race for the next nine months they have to do something to make it exciting. This is apparently the modus operandi within the media corps, and from what the talking heads told me this attitude is common within their circle. Hey, I give them props for being honest with me when the cameras weren't rolling, but that doesn't mean I'm going to sit here quietly and let what was said go into the old memory hole. So listen up, folks.
The talking heads and pundits are the enemy of the Democratic Party. No matter who the nominee is, they are going to get Gored. The media is also going to distort our message. They are going to play out their pre-written storyline. I honestly do not know what to do about this other than get on their asses (apologies in advance to TS Quint who always criticises us when we use profanity) and call them out for this bullshit. The American people deserve a media that is critical, that functions as the public watchdog, that will tell them the truth.
I also met some FAUX news reporters at dinner one night and proceeded to rip them a new one. They feigned shock when I accused them of massive right-wing bias, then they claimed they were democrats who worked for FAUX. Then they went on to defend their employer and they claimed they aren't pressured to put a right-wing spin on their news. Naturally I called them on it because sometimes I can't bite my tongue. I said it was obvious to anyone with half a clue that FAUX is simply a propoganda channel and that any good democrat with a conscience wouldn't sell their soul to FAUX in order to pay their bills. I expressed my severe disappointment with them for towing their employer's propoganda line and suggested that they do some soul-searching and find a new employer, particularly one that reports instead of distorts. I know I rattled them because they left soon after that, and I hope that my words rang in their ears for days. I guess I'm tired of being manipulated, and after all the conversations I overheard or had with reporters, I am now more certain than ever that Howard Dean is right about some industries needing re-regulation. It is impossible for the media to be fair when they are owned in large part by people with a right-wing agenda to push.
So take heed Dean supporters (and all Democrats). If you think it was bad in 2000, it's just going to be worse this time around. If you think we are working hard now, you haven't seen anything yet. It is going to take extra vigilance to get our message out no matter who we nominate, and all of us will have to coalesce behind the eventual nominee no matter who it is so that we can present a unified front. In the meantime, please adopt a pundit and fact check them, please write letters and make phone calls to the media. Hook up with DDF and DeanRR. They are more important now than they've ever been. We have got to fight back and hit hard, go for the media jugular, or we're sunk. It's that simple, IMO.
My open letter to the American media reads as follows:
What's the text of your letter? What pundit are you going to adopt? How many media outlets will you contact today? This is what it's going to take.
cross-posted to annatopia.
*thanks to atrios for inspiring my letter
At the Val Air party Monday night and over the weekend in Iowa, I pretended to jump the shark a few times so I could get an inside line on how the media is operating during this election cycle. I had a few long conversations with Candy Crowley, Paul Begala, Tucker Carlson, and some guy from FAUX (I have blocked his name out, probably a natural reaction due to his employer). Over the weekend I also had an opportunity to discuss the election with Mort Kondrake, Tim Russert, and some field reporters from NBC, CNN, and FAUX.
Basically, all one has to do is fawn over them until they drop their guard, then you go in for the kill and asked some real questions.
The consensus is this: the media are all pulling for a Dean v. Bush election because otherwise they'd be bored to tears. On a daily basis, they have to come up with ways to keep the election exciting - for them. Whether it's spinning Dean's Val Air speech as "angry" or pounding Wesley Clark for "being a Republican", they are doing what they can to keep themselves entertained. Isn't that pathetic? They aren't reporting the facts and they have no intention whatsoever of reporting the facts as long as it gets in the way of entertainment.
It's more entertaining for them to portray "Angry Dean versus Everyman Bush" than it is to talk about "People Power versus Big Corporations". It's more entertaining to talk about "The New McGovern versus the Strong-on-Security Bush" than it is to discuss "Sound Fiscal Management versus Busted Budgets and Unfunded Mandates". The media just wants to create characters. They don't care about presenting the public with the real issues that we face, because as one pundit said to me, "Discussing policy is boring".
The one person who provided the most insight into how they operate was my new favorite conservative, Tucker Carlson. I found that off-camera, Tucker was earnest and truthful. I can see why many left-of-center pundits consider him to be likable. But once he gets on-camera, the schtick comes out. Like last night when he said (with a more than heavy dose of sarcasm) on CNN that Dean's Val Air speech made women and children "run screaming from the room". Having spoken with him and gotten his take, I could see right through that little smirk of his (and in fact I laughed out loud when he said that), but the majority of the American public isn't privy to this information. They probably don't realise that the media is just playing a giant game of Calvinball with America. We must make sure that our fellow Americans understand that the media is manipulating this race.
Tucker also told me he hoped that Dean would win because it would "give Americans a real choice". He also said that he feels the other candidates are boring, and that because the media has to cover this race for the next nine months they have to do something to make it exciting. This is apparently the modus operandi within the media corps, and from what the talking heads told me this attitude is common within their circle. Hey, I give them props for being honest with me when the cameras weren't rolling, but that doesn't mean I'm going to sit here quietly and let what was said go into the old memory hole. So listen up, folks.
The talking heads and pundits are the enemy of the Democratic Party. No matter who the nominee is, they are going to get Gored. The media is also going to distort our message. They are going to play out their pre-written storyline. I honestly do not know what to do about this other than get on their asses (apologies in advance to TS Quint who always criticises us when we use profanity) and call them out for this bullshit. The American people deserve a media that is critical, that functions as the public watchdog, that will tell them the truth.
I also met some FAUX news reporters at dinner one night and proceeded to rip them a new one. They feigned shock when I accused them of massive right-wing bias, then they claimed they were democrats who worked for FAUX. Then they went on to defend their employer and they claimed they aren't pressured to put a right-wing spin on their news. Naturally I called them on it because sometimes I can't bite my tongue. I said it was obvious to anyone with half a clue that FAUX is simply a propoganda channel and that any good democrat with a conscience wouldn't sell their soul to FAUX in order to pay their bills. I expressed my severe disappointment with them for towing their employer's propoganda line and suggested that they do some soul-searching and find a new employer, particularly one that reports instead of distorts. I know I rattled them because they left soon after that, and I hope that my words rang in their ears for days. I guess I'm tired of being manipulated, and after all the conversations I overheard or had with reporters, I am now more certain than ever that Howard Dean is right about some industries needing re-regulation. It is impossible for the media to be fair when they are owned in large part by people with a right-wing agenda to push.
So take heed Dean supporters (and all Democrats). If you think it was bad in 2000, it's just going to be worse this time around. If you think we are working hard now, you haven't seen anything yet. It is going to take extra vigilance to get our message out no matter who we nominate, and all of us will have to coalesce behind the eventual nominee no matter who it is so that we can present a unified front. In the meantime, please adopt a pundit and fact check them, please write letters and make phone calls to the media. Hook up with DDF and DeanRR. They are more important now than they've ever been. We have got to fight back and hit hard, go for the media jugular, or we're sunk. It's that simple, IMO.
My open letter to the American media reads as follows:
Dear Big Media,
I don't care about Kobe Bryant, Laci Peterson, or any of the other sensationalised cases you seem so enamored of. I am an American voter and I care about the issues challenging us, like the massive loss of jobs under the Bush administration, whether Al Qaeda has regrouped in Afghanistan, our busted budget, and how Bush is rolling back environmental protections.
It is not your job to write a storyline and spin the race so that you won't be bored for the next nine months. It is your job to inform and to act as a public watchdog. If I want to be entertained, I'll go rent a movie.
Love,
Annatopia
What's the text of your letter? What pundit are you going to adopt? How many media outlets will you contact today? This is what it's going to take.
cross-posted to annatopia.
*thanks to atrios for inspiring my letter
open thread
This one's for Joe, especially.
One down, six to go
Monday was an emotional roller coaster, and I hope that when all is said and done, the truth can be told and the media doesn’t do us in.
The angry Dean meme is in full bloom, just as predicted a few weeks ago on several left-of-center blogs. I’ve just finished watching a bit of news for the first time in nearly five days, and I’ve got a very different perspective on what is being broadcast right now.
Everything is still a bit foggy, as I’m running on inconsistent sleep, but here’s my take. Last night Howard Dean gave the most courageous speech of his political life. Before the results were in, whispers around Des Moines said the media was already writing our obituary. And lo and behold, what I see today on my screen bares that out. But that’s not the truth.
All weekend, Dean’s Storm Chasers and team Gephardt had the only sizable presense on the ground. There was a tight and hard core group of Kucinich backers on the ground but they were vastly outnumbered. Kerry and Edwards had zero visible presense on the ground. How they came out on top will be disputed for quite some time, and here are some bits of information that I came across over the course of last night.
Word is that the Kerry campaign funneled a ton of resources into courting the establishment in Iowa, and then used that existing network to turn out the vote. They weren’t visible until caucus day, when they coordinated their efforts and targeted large population centers. Some undecideds broke for Kerry, but not as many as it may appear at the moment.
Edwards benefited from a few coordinated “Stop Dean” efforts. Dennis Kucinich sold out his anti-war, anti-PATRIOT Act constituency when he cut a deal with Edwards and advised his supporters to throw their weight behind the North Carolina Senator who authorized the war and co-authored the PATRIOT Act. Kucinich supporters in large part stayed home or stuck around to caucus for Dennis, but a few seem to have heeded his call and thrown some scattered precincts to Edwards. A few undecideds broke for him as well. But it’s also known that the RNC targeted the caucuses (more later on their efforts to sabotage some of the events this weekend) and that their loyal troopers were on orders to turn out “for the young guy”, as a few people I overheard put it. Several precinct chairs who made it to the party were overheard saying how unusually large contingents of Republicans showed up, switched their registration, and caucused for Edwards.
Dean and Gephardt have been killing each other in Iowa over the past month. We peaked there about a month ago (as did Gephardt, but arguably he took himself out with the ads), right after the media started their assault and the Gephardt campaign started to attack us with their ad buys. Neither candidate benefited from the harsh words they traded, and each lost points with soft supporters, who later broke for other candidates or stayed home. However, both candidates had great grassroots support in Iowa and it is a testament to the Dean grassroots that we were able to knock Dick Gephardt out of the race. We went to Iowa having always been the real untested underdog and we made it out of there with one of the three tickets. There were also whispers from Dean supporters at the party – especially young ones – that they were intimidated into leaving their caucuses by some more seasoned caucus attendees who supported other candidates.
In the end I wonder if some heads will roll in Burlington, and I’ll be honest here. You can talk all day about how we pulled the “negative” ads last week, but it was too late. They never should have gone up in the first place. Again and again during the past few election cycles, we’ve seen how the public responds to harsh advertising. Even if it’s not technically negative per se (or even if the ad is factually correct in some cases), voters are turned off by the negative tone. And besides, we are supposed to be a campaign based on hope and empowerment, and it would probably be a good thing to get back to that.
Now back to the “angry Dean meme”, also known as the one that won’t go away. I’ve watched all day as the media portrayed Dean as an angry man who went over the top last night. I don’t believe that anyone who was there feels that the Gov was angry (press included; they are just pushing a storyline; more on that later). In fact, he was more pumped than I’ve seen him in quite some time. The energy in the room was palpable. As we waited for him to take the stage, spontaneous chanting broke out. Most people were excited about making it past Iowa, especially considering that originally we were never supposed to be here. John Kerry was the anointed frontrunner from the beginning, and John Edwards was the new face of the Democratic Party. We were nothing, an asterisk as we like to say, and we’d made it past Iowa. It was a great feeling even though there had been a brief period earlier when the results were coming in where we were all surprised by the results and disappointed to not be first or second. I think many people wondered how Kerry and Edwards pulled it off, but once more reports filtered in from the field it all began to make sense. They all tried to stop us, and we even tried inadvertently to stop ourselves, but the grassroots were strong and we made it. Well before Dean took the stage the slogan for the evening had already been written: One down, six to go. *
Senator Tom Harkin introduced the Gov by making a brief and uplifting speech about the power of the grassroots, and how there are only three tickets out of Iowa and one was ours. Then the Gov came out to the tune of “You Ain’t Seen Nothin’ Yet” and the crowd went wild. Americans flags and red and blue pompons waved wildly as the Gov removed his jacket, rolled up his sleeves, and gave a powerful, hopeful, uplifting speech. A beaming smile filled his face as the crowd roared back in appreciation. We fed off each other’s energy and the feeling was incredible. Afterwards, celebration ensued as we looked forward towards New Hampshire.
We’re still in a fantastic position to get the nomination. We’ve got a network of volunteers in all 50 states, a sizable chunk of money in the bank, good name recognition, and right now we’re in a position to stage a comeback in New Hampshire and beyond. I hope that everyone understands that, and I want everyone to know that what happened Monday night was a beautiful thing. We’ll redouble our efforts and we will get to the convention and it might be a dogfight, but I believe in the grassroots, I can’t imagine giving up after all our hard work, and I believe we can still win this thing.
* as in one contender – Gephardt
* also, I just realised that this might seem a bit off to some people. i composed this last night before i crashed out, just FYI.
cross-posted to annatopia
The angry Dean meme is in full bloom, just as predicted a few weeks ago on several left-of-center blogs. I’ve just finished watching a bit of news for the first time in nearly five days, and I’ve got a very different perspective on what is being broadcast right now.
Everything is still a bit foggy, as I’m running on inconsistent sleep, but here’s my take. Last night Howard Dean gave the most courageous speech of his political life. Before the results were in, whispers around Des Moines said the media was already writing our obituary. And lo and behold, what I see today on my screen bares that out. But that’s not the truth.
All weekend, Dean’s Storm Chasers and team Gephardt had the only sizable presense on the ground. There was a tight and hard core group of Kucinich backers on the ground but they were vastly outnumbered. Kerry and Edwards had zero visible presense on the ground. How they came out on top will be disputed for quite some time, and here are some bits of information that I came across over the course of last night.
Word is that the Kerry campaign funneled a ton of resources into courting the establishment in Iowa, and then used that existing network to turn out the vote. They weren’t visible until caucus day, when they coordinated their efforts and targeted large population centers. Some undecideds broke for Kerry, but not as many as it may appear at the moment.
Edwards benefited from a few coordinated “Stop Dean” efforts. Dennis Kucinich sold out his anti-war, anti-PATRIOT Act constituency when he cut a deal with Edwards and advised his supporters to throw their weight behind the North Carolina Senator who authorized the war and co-authored the PATRIOT Act. Kucinich supporters in large part stayed home or stuck around to caucus for Dennis, but a few seem to have heeded his call and thrown some scattered precincts to Edwards. A few undecideds broke for him as well. But it’s also known that the RNC targeted the caucuses (more later on their efforts to sabotage some of the events this weekend) and that their loyal troopers were on orders to turn out “for the young guy”, as a few people I overheard put it. Several precinct chairs who made it to the party were overheard saying how unusually large contingents of Republicans showed up, switched their registration, and caucused for Edwards.
Dean and Gephardt have been killing each other in Iowa over the past month. We peaked there about a month ago (as did Gephardt, but arguably he took himself out with the ads), right after the media started their assault and the Gephardt campaign started to attack us with their ad buys. Neither candidate benefited from the harsh words they traded, and each lost points with soft supporters, who later broke for other candidates or stayed home. However, both candidates had great grassroots support in Iowa and it is a testament to the Dean grassroots that we were able to knock Dick Gephardt out of the race. We went to Iowa having always been the real untested underdog and we made it out of there with one of the three tickets. There were also whispers from Dean supporters at the party – especially young ones – that they were intimidated into leaving their caucuses by some more seasoned caucus attendees who supported other candidates.
In the end I wonder if some heads will roll in Burlington, and I’ll be honest here. You can talk all day about how we pulled the “negative” ads last week, but it was too late. They never should have gone up in the first place. Again and again during the past few election cycles, we’ve seen how the public responds to harsh advertising. Even if it’s not technically negative per se (or even if the ad is factually correct in some cases), voters are turned off by the negative tone. And besides, we are supposed to be a campaign based on hope and empowerment, and it would probably be a good thing to get back to that.
Now back to the “angry Dean meme”, also known as the one that won’t go away. I’ve watched all day as the media portrayed Dean as an angry man who went over the top last night. I don’t believe that anyone who was there feels that the Gov was angry (press included; they are just pushing a storyline; more on that later). In fact, he was more pumped than I’ve seen him in quite some time. The energy in the room was palpable. As we waited for him to take the stage, spontaneous chanting broke out. Most people were excited about making it past Iowa, especially considering that originally we were never supposed to be here. John Kerry was the anointed frontrunner from the beginning, and John Edwards was the new face of the Democratic Party. We were nothing, an asterisk as we like to say, and we’d made it past Iowa. It was a great feeling even though there had been a brief period earlier when the results were coming in where we were all surprised by the results and disappointed to not be first or second. I think many people wondered how Kerry and Edwards pulled it off, but once more reports filtered in from the field it all began to make sense. They all tried to stop us, and we even tried inadvertently to stop ourselves, but the grassroots were strong and we made it. Well before Dean took the stage the slogan for the evening had already been written: One down, six to go. *
Senator Tom Harkin introduced the Gov by making a brief and uplifting speech about the power of the grassroots, and how there are only three tickets out of Iowa and one was ours. Then the Gov came out to the tune of “You Ain’t Seen Nothin’ Yet” and the crowd went wild. Americans flags and red and blue pompons waved wildly as the Gov removed his jacket, rolled up his sleeves, and gave a powerful, hopeful, uplifting speech. A beaming smile filled his face as the crowd roared back in appreciation. We fed off each other’s energy and the feeling was incredible. Afterwards, celebration ensued as we looked forward towards New Hampshire.
We’re still in a fantastic position to get the nomination. We’ve got a network of volunteers in all 50 states, a sizable chunk of money in the bank, good name recognition, and right now we’re in a position to stage a comeback in New Hampshire and beyond. I hope that everyone understands that, and I want everyone to know that what happened Monday night was a beautiful thing. We’ll redouble our efforts and we will get to the convention and it might be a dogfight, but I believe in the grassroots, I can’t imagine giving up after all our hard work, and I believe we can still win this thing.
* as in one contender – Gephardt
* also, I just realised that this might seem a bit off to some people. i composed this last night before i crashed out, just FYI.
cross-posted to annatopia
Moderating Dean http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A33438-2004Jan20.html
Dean has rallied his supporters for two years straight. He stood up to George W. Bush when nobody else would, and he addressed the need for strong, aggressive leadership within the party. Now, the other candidates have adopted the same posture. Good for them. Good for us. Good for the country. Dean is now going back to the traditional issues that brought him to the race - the bread and butter issues that the next election will turn on: balanced budgets, health care for every American, and local control for a host of other issues including public education.
This approach is what won him five consecutive elections in Vermont for Governor, and it's what many Vermonters find so appealing about Dean - sound fiscal policy coupled with a small government approach to solving most community problems, while preserving the federal social safety net for the most vulnerable among us. Here's hoping that just as the Dean campaign returns to a more substantive, as opposed to stylistic, approach, that the media does too. This Washington Post article is a good start.
This approach is what won him five consecutive elections in Vermont for Governor, and it's what many Vermonters find so appealing about Dean - sound fiscal policy coupled with a small government approach to solving most community problems, while preserving the federal social safety net for the most vulnerable among us. Here's hoping that just as the Dean campaign returns to a more substantive, as opposed to stylistic, approach, that the media does too. This Washington Post article is a good start.
Back To Basics
We're all lost in the hoopla.
The fact of the matter is that the Dean candidacy, unlike those of his rivals, is built (in techno-speak) on a robust, scalable, modular platform.
As Gertrude Stein might say, "there is some there, there."
Where is that there? Here is that there:
This is the Howard Dean we are supporting. This is the Howard Dean the trolls fear. This is the Howard Dean we want as President.
Yeah, he gets excited some times. So do we. Yeah, he's not perfection incarnate. Neither are we.
And, no, it's not Howard Dean we really want to empower. It's We, The People. We know, unlike the Clark and Kerry and Edwards folks, that Howard Dean is not going to solve our problems for us.
He told us so. If you believed him then, then believe in yourself now.
Don't be misled by the hoopla, or the polls, by our mistakes in Iowa or by our candidate's passion in front of us.
Remember, instead, what this is all about.
The fact of the matter is that the Dean candidacy, unlike those of his rivals, is built (in techno-speak) on a robust, scalable, modular platform.
As Gertrude Stein might say, "there is some there, there."
Where is that there? Here is that there:
Here are the words of John Winthrop: “We shall be as one. We must delight in each other, make other’s conditions our own; rejoice together, mourn together, labor and suffer together, always living before our eyes our Commission and Community in our work.”
It is that ideal, the ideal of the American community, that we seek to restore.
An America where it is not enough for me to want health care for my family – but the obligation, and responsibility of every one of us as American citizens to insure that each one of us has health care for our families.
An America where it is not enough for me to want good public schools and a better life for my children – but an obligation, and a responsibility as citizens to insure that every child in America may go to a good public school and have the opportunity of a better life.
An America where it is not enough to protect my rights under the law but where it is a duty and an obligation for each of us as Americans to make sure every American is equal under the law.
An America where it is not enough to proclaim the words freedom, self-government, and democracy, but where it is a duty and a responsibility to participate together in common purpose with the sacrifice required of each of us to give those words meaning.
This is the Howard Dean we are supporting. This is the Howard Dean the trolls fear. This is the Howard Dean we want as President.
Yeah, he gets excited some times. So do we. Yeah, he's not perfection incarnate. Neither are we.
And, no, it's not Howard Dean we really want to empower. It's We, The People. We know, unlike the Clark and Kerry and Edwards folks, that Howard Dean is not going to solve our problems for us.
He told us so. If you believed him then, then believe in yourself now.
You have the power to reclaim our nation’s destiny.
You have the power to rid Washington of the politics of money.
You have the power to make right as important as might.
You have the power to give Americans a reason to vote again.
You have the power to restore our nation to fiscal sanity and bring jobs back to our people.
You have the power to fulfill Harry Truman’s dream and bring health insurance to every American.
You have the power to give us a foreign policy consistent with American values again.
You have the power to take back the Democratic Party.
You have the power to take our country back.
And we have the power to take the White House back in 2004.
Don't be misled by the hoopla, or the polls, by our mistakes in Iowa or by our candidate's passion in front of us.
Remember, instead, what this is all about.
Tuesday, January 20, 2004
Dean Leads Kerry In NH http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040120/ap_on_el_pr/new_hampshire_polls_2
Three most recent tracking polls in NH all show Dean leading Kerry by as little as 2 points in the Zogby poll (25-23), to as many as 8 points in both the ARG and Gallup polls. The polls were conducted over a three day period that included results subsequent to Monday's Iowa Caucus.
The Speech
I've seen the coverage of Howard Dean's concession speech yesterday, covered on CBS and NBC with the headline "Dean Scene," and with all the talking heads commenting on how awful it was. Now, IMHO, it was not a smart thing for Dean to do that on national television. It was probably worse for his campaign than the third place finish. I'll say it reminded me of a Homecoming pep rally when the old returning alumnus gets up there and tries to be cool, but seriously isn't. But first of all, it wasn't angry, it was just determination to move forward. He was laughing and smiling during it. And it strikes me as really unfair that if Kerry can ride on-stage on a Harley on a TV show, Dean can't get a bit wild at a campaign rally. Yes, it was overboard, but I have to question whether it's really worth all the attention it's getting.
The fact is, anger is Dean's press meme. Al Gore was seen as an exaggerator, and therefore every slight exaggeration of an achievement or joke or rumor thereof got to be big news. George W. Bush is seen as somewhat illiterate, and therefore every minor grammatical slip gets passed around and mocked by people who have probably seldom had to give a lecture much less keep up political levels of public speaking. Howard Dean is now seen as angry, and every time he fails to speak in a monotone, it will be news. He should have thought of that. But he didn't.
And I feel bad about that, because he was instead thinking of his supporters. And I for one want to make sure he doesn't lose this election on our account.
The fact is, anger is Dean's press meme. Al Gore was seen as an exaggerator, and therefore every slight exaggeration of an achievement or joke or rumor thereof got to be big news. George W. Bush is seen as somewhat illiterate, and therefore every minor grammatical slip gets passed around and mocked by people who have probably seldom had to give a lecture much less keep up political levels of public speaking. Howard Dean is now seen as angry, and every time he fails to speak in a monotone, it will be news. He should have thought of that. But he didn't.
And I feel bad about that, because he was instead thinking of his supporters. And I for one want to make sure he doesn't lose this election on our account.
Dean Nation Team Goal updated: $40,000 http://www.deanforamerica.com/site/TR?pg=personal&fr_id=1090&px=1179278
Dean Nation has raised $35,000 dollars to date for Dean - with an average donation of $56. Think about that - for the cost of dinner and a movie, over 600 of us have played a concrete role in taking our nation back from the politics of personal destruction, from the hateful jingoism of the far right, from the hypocritical enemies of the middle and lower class.
We can do more. We must do more. Dean was never the front-runner in this race - it's always been Bush. Dean's 3rd place finish in Iowa means we can shed the baggage of the media expectations game - and focus on winning delegates. But to do that, we need to get our message out. I have my own critiques of Dean's Iowa strategy, but that was just the end of the beginning. As we look forward to New Hampshire we need to focus on what matters most - convincing voters of our competence.
Remember - Dean walked away from matching funds. That theoretically means he can raise unlimited funds to match Bush's $200 million - but that theory means nothing if WE don't step up to the plate. That money won't materialize out of thin air. In fact, unless we step up, and show the media elites that we believe in Dean, we might well be worse off than had we taken the federal money.
So let's see how close to $40,000 we can raise before New Hampshire. Let's dig a little deeper and use the sharp edge of the Iowa loss to prod us to our higher potential. Let's turn Iowa into our rallying cry. That is the essence of Dean fu and exactly what People Power is all about.
Feed the Bat! to $40K... and let's show the naysayers what comeback looks like!
We can do more. We must do more. Dean was never the front-runner in this race - it's always been Bush. Dean's 3rd place finish in Iowa means we can shed the baggage of the media expectations game - and focus on winning delegates. But to do that, we need to get our message out. I have my own critiques of Dean's Iowa strategy, but that was just the end of the beginning. As we look forward to New Hampshire we need to focus on what matters most - convincing voters of our competence.
Remember - Dean walked away from matching funds. That theoretically means he can raise unlimited funds to match Bush's $200 million - but that theory means nothing if WE don't step up to the plate. That money won't materialize out of thin air. In fact, unless we step up, and show the media elites that we believe in Dean, we might well be worse off than had we taken the federal money.
So let's see how close to $40,000 we can raise before New Hampshire. Let's dig a little deeper and use the sharp edge of the Iowa loss to prod us to our higher potential. Let's turn Iowa into our rallying cry. That is the essence of Dean fu and exactly what People Power is all about.
Feed the Bat! to $40K... and let's show the naysayers what comeback looks like!
Oversold
Have you ever wanted something so bad you went overboard?
Maybe it was a girl (or a boy). Maybe it was a game. Maybe it was a company policy.
So you went after him, her or it with everything you had. You refused to hear "no."
Trouble is, you didn't hear "yes" either.
That's what happened in Iowa. And it wasn't just Dean. It was us. All of us.
We canvassed and called, we wrote and we cheered, until our wrists were sore and our throats ached. Just like some men will give women jewels, trips and a bouquet, then lose her to some schlub who offered merely a single flower and his heart.
We tried too hard. All of us. Howard Dean failed? Maybe. But so did we.
We stopped trusting the clarity, the simplicity, the all-American rightness of our message. We tried to force the issue. And Iowans, figuring we could always find other voters, decided to save other souls, specifically those of John Kerry and John Edwards.
We got crunched. Maybe we even deserved it.
But frankly I am sick and tired of the moaning-and-groaning among some Dean supporters. I'm sick and tired of how some of the weak-kneed now want to jump ship. I'm sick and tired of the trolls, and their sidekicks in the media.
We're behind. I guarantee you polls tomorrow in New Hampshire will show we're behind. I guarantee they're going to say that "Howard Dean has to knock his opponents on their backsides in that debate, or he's through." Some will say he's through anyway.
He's only through when we say he's through. Despite what Edwards and Kerry did to us yesterday, they are not going to be taking near the heat we are this week. It's going to be written that we have to win or we're dead.
But we'll decide when and if we're dead. We still have the power.
We just have to trust the people more, walk more humbly, take yes for an answer, and fight the 50-state fight.
Bill Clinton won neither Iowa nor New Hampshire. George W. Bush lost Iowa in 1988, and Ronald Reagan lost it to Bush in 1980. Carter lost Iowa to undecided.
The fight has barely begun. It's what we here like to call Common Sense.
The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of his country; but he that stands it NOW deserves the love and thanks of man and woman.
Enough with the moaning-and-groaning. Get back to work.
Maybe it was a girl (or a boy). Maybe it was a game. Maybe it was a company policy.
So you went after him, her or it with everything you had. You refused to hear "no."
Trouble is, you didn't hear "yes" either.
That's what happened in Iowa. And it wasn't just Dean. It was us. All of us.
We canvassed and called, we wrote and we cheered, until our wrists were sore and our throats ached. Just like some men will give women jewels, trips and a bouquet, then lose her to some schlub who offered merely a single flower and his heart.
We tried too hard. All of us. Howard Dean failed? Maybe. But so did we.
We stopped trusting the clarity, the simplicity, the all-American rightness of our message. We tried to force the issue. And Iowans, figuring we could always find other voters, decided to save other souls, specifically those of John Kerry and John Edwards.
We got crunched. Maybe we even deserved it.
But frankly I am sick and tired of the moaning-and-groaning among some Dean supporters. I'm sick and tired of how some of the weak-kneed now want to jump ship. I'm sick and tired of the trolls, and their sidekicks in the media.
We're behind. I guarantee you polls tomorrow in New Hampshire will show we're behind. I guarantee they're going to say that "Howard Dean has to knock his opponents on their backsides in that debate, or he's through." Some will say he's through anyway.
He's only through when we say he's through. Despite what Edwards and Kerry did to us yesterday, they are not going to be taking near the heat we are this week. It's going to be written that we have to win or we're dead.
But we'll decide when and if we're dead. We still have the power.
We just have to trust the people more, walk more humbly, take yes for an answer, and fight the 50-state fight.
Bill Clinton won neither Iowa nor New Hampshire. George W. Bush lost Iowa in 1988, and Ronald Reagan lost it to Bush in 1980. Carter lost Iowa to undecided.
The fight has barely begun. It's what we here like to call Common Sense.
The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of his country; but he that stands it NOW deserves the love and thanks of man and woman.
Enough with the moaning-and-groaning. Get back to work.
CBS post-mortem puts it in perspective http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/01/06/politics/main591781.shtml
Here's a fairly straightforward piece summarizing yesterday's caucus results:
Remember, this nomination could be sealed on Super Tuesday in March. Or it could very well drag out to the convention. I'm starting to believe that New Hampshire is going to be irrelevant if we lose, but an important boost if we win. I'll post my analysis on the caucus shortly...
Dean did not abandon his fiery rhetoric Monday night. Pumping the air as if he'd won, Dean bellowed to supporters: "We will not quit now or ever," his voice hoarse, nearly a scream.
On Tuesday, Dean defended his theatrical exuberance on that stage, saying, "You've got to have some fun in this business."
[...]
Polls in New Hampshire show Dean still out front, but with a shrinking lead. Clark had been the main challenger, but Monday Kerry began to move up.
An American Research Group tracking poll had Dean with 28 percent, Kerry with 20 percent and Clark 19 percent, subject to a 4 percent margin of error. A WBZ/Boston Globe poll had Dean with 28 percent, Clark with 21 percent and Kerry with 20 percent. That survey has a 5-point margin of error.
Dean still leads the overall delegate race with 104 to Kerry's 75 and Edwards' 34. Nomination requires 2,162 delegates.
Remember, this nomination could be sealed on Super Tuesday in March. Or it could very well drag out to the convention. I'm starting to believe that New Hampshire is going to be irrelevant if we lose, but an important boost if we win. I'll post my analysis on the caucus shortly...
The $200 Million Question
There is one issue Democrats must face in New Hampshire this week.
How are you going to compete with the $200 million George W. Bush will have to tear you down on TV this summer?
General Clark, Senator Edwards, and Senator Lieberman have no plan. They took the matching funds and, when their $45 million is spent, they will go under virtual house arrest, as Bob Dole did in 1996 and as Al Gore in 2000. Remember, Bush didn’t take the matching funds last time either, Gore did, so Gore ran out of money long before his convention.
How much different the world would be today if he could have fought back. Howard Dean will fight back.
And before you say Senator Kerry, he stayed in the game by mortgaging his house, which is a trick you can only do once.
The world knows the Dean plan. Howard Dean did not build this campaign to win in Iowa in January. He built it to win nationwide in November. Howard Dean has a strategy, of getting 2 million people to contribute $100 each. Howard Dean has an infrastructure, he has the technology and the people to go toe-to-toe with George W. Bush all summer. Howard Dean has a platform, one that hearkens not to the divisions of the recent past but to our founding documents.
On the issues there really are few differences among the Democratic candidates in New Hampshire. On substantive issues there is general agreement. Even thematically, Governor Dean is easy to copy.
But if your campaign can’t answer the $200 million question, it can’t win. George W. Bush will win in a walk unless the Democratic nominee comes up with a $200 million answer.
Howard Dean has that answer. Has Wesley Clark? Has John Edwards? Has Joe Lieberman? Has John F. Kerry?
They haven’t. And that needs to be the issue we hammer home all this week. What Democrats want from a candidate, more than anything else, is victory. This is the only campaign with a strategy for giving it to them.
A Few Thoughts
*In addition to a Kerry and Edwards surge, I'm expecting a Dean dip in the NH polls. Democrats are apparently thinking a lot about electability. Some people who believed he would rally the base will probably notice the lack of a rallied Dean base in Iowa. In addition, I don't think the Gephardt voters will go to Dean, at least initially. Despite the fact they're the two big "union candidates," their images are the opposite of each other.
*Seeing my comment here a few days ago made me remember just how skeptical of Dean I was even a few months ago. I could probably find stuff from over the summer where I was completely dismissive. When I made my final decision right after Thanksgiving, it was after I became satisfied he could handle foreign policy. But what really built me up to that was when I saw him in town meetings. It was amazing to hear him talking about issues like health care, education, jobs, and so on. He has ideas and programs and strategies for passing those programs so that I could just see it all happening.
Unfortunately, most Americans come to know candidates by their stump speeches and commercials. I don't know what's in the commercials, but in his stump speeches he devotes 80% of explaining the problems with Bush. This is important, but let's assume for the moment that partisan Democrats already know it all. Voters have got to wonder what Dean will do instead. And a lot of the things that rally his volunteers, like pointing at the crowd and saying, "You have the power" over and over again, simply look weird to the staid 40-somethings he needs to win. Can you imagine any President in American history doing something similar? There are reasons for that. I respect that Dean can connect with different audiences, but in the environment of the Presidential campaign the camera is always there, and he's always talking to every audience. And especially given the stereotype of Dean as the angry far-left lunatic, he needs to be especially non-angry and non-loony. He already has a certain East Coast bruskness that sounds short or angry out here in the midwest; I think on the campaign trail if he strives to be a block of uncarved wood, he will hit the right balance. And he needs to show himself more as the dynamic governor who led Vermont, is changing political organization, and can help change Washington and the right wing-oriented climate of debate in this country, or people will believe the campus radical rhetoric.
*Now that you've read the negative stuff, keep in mind we still have more resources both human and monetary than any other candidate. So once the campaign retools whatever it plans to retool, we can get the message out there quickly and all over the place, while other candidates will probably try to compete in only a few states. I still feel that in the end, this comes down to a battle between Dean and Clark. I'm also glad I don't get CNN, etc., because the constant obsession with instant reaction and predicting the future drive me nuts. Yes, Dean would be much stronger had he won Iowa. No, he is not dead. His chances of a comeback seem much better than, say, Kerry's did around New Year's. And I do think it's a fact that a lot of Iowans really focused after the holidays, when Dean was on the defensive. Now things will have shifted.
*Just a minor note in the larger scheme of things: I heard on C-Span last night (I have basic cable, just not expanded basic) that Dean and Gephardt were not viable in some precincts last night. This means that theit supporters probably went to Kerry and Edwards in those areas. So while the margin in the final count looks like a lot, the margin in the actual first-choice voter preferences was almost certainly closer. By how much, I have no idea. Those entry polls might give some indication, if they're accurate.
*I stand firmly by what I said here. This is far from over. It's been awhile since we saw a real fight for the nomination, which is what we have now. So buckle up. Every election year is different. Normally after New Hampshire we have a two-person race. This year, we're likely to have at least three, and if Dean and Kerry are in a dead heat for first there could wind up with five heading wouth, where Sharpton's voters could become a factor. Kevin Drum is suggesting this could go to the convention. I'm not sure how likely that is, since some candidates will run out of money long before then, but it just shows how unpredictable things really are.
*Seeing my comment here a few days ago made me remember just how skeptical of Dean I was even a few months ago. I could probably find stuff from over the summer where I was completely dismissive. When I made my final decision right after Thanksgiving, it was after I became satisfied he could handle foreign policy. But what really built me up to that was when I saw him in town meetings. It was amazing to hear him talking about issues like health care, education, jobs, and so on. He has ideas and programs and strategies for passing those programs so that I could just see it all happening.
Unfortunately, most Americans come to know candidates by their stump speeches and commercials. I don't know what's in the commercials, but in his stump speeches he devotes 80% of explaining the problems with Bush. This is important, but let's assume for the moment that partisan Democrats already know it all. Voters have got to wonder what Dean will do instead. And a lot of the things that rally his volunteers, like pointing at the crowd and saying, "You have the power" over and over again, simply look weird to the staid 40-somethings he needs to win. Can you imagine any President in American history doing something similar? There are reasons for that. I respect that Dean can connect with different audiences, but in the environment of the Presidential campaign the camera is always there, and he's always talking to every audience. And especially given the stereotype of Dean as the angry far-left lunatic, he needs to be especially non-angry and non-loony. He already has a certain East Coast bruskness that sounds short or angry out here in the midwest; I think on the campaign trail if he strives to be a block of uncarved wood, he will hit the right balance. And he needs to show himself more as the dynamic governor who led Vermont, is changing political organization, and can help change Washington and the right wing-oriented climate of debate in this country, or people will believe the campus radical rhetoric.
*Now that you've read the negative stuff, keep in mind we still have more resources both human and monetary than any other candidate. So once the campaign retools whatever it plans to retool, we can get the message out there quickly and all over the place, while other candidates will probably try to compete in only a few states. I still feel that in the end, this comes down to a battle between Dean and Clark. I'm also glad I don't get CNN, etc., because the constant obsession with instant reaction and predicting the future drive me nuts. Yes, Dean would be much stronger had he won Iowa. No, he is not dead. His chances of a comeback seem much better than, say, Kerry's did around New Year's. And I do think it's a fact that a lot of Iowans really focused after the holidays, when Dean was on the defensive. Now things will have shifted.
*Just a minor note in the larger scheme of things: I heard on C-Span last night (I have basic cable, just not expanded basic) that Dean and Gephardt were not viable in some precincts last night. This means that theit supporters probably went to Kerry and Edwards in those areas. So while the margin in the final count looks like a lot, the margin in the actual first-choice voter preferences was almost certainly closer. By how much, I have no idea. Those entry polls might give some indication, if they're accurate.
*I stand firmly by what I said here. This is far from over. It's been awhile since we saw a real fight for the nomination, which is what we have now. So buckle up. Every election year is different. Normally after New Hampshire we have a two-person race. This year, we're likely to have at least three, and if Dean and Kerry are in a dead heat for first there could wind up with five heading wouth, where Sharpton's voters could become a factor. Kevin Drum is suggesting this could go to the convention. I'm not sure how likely that is, since some candidates will run out of money long before then, but it just shows how unpredictable things really are.
On to New Hampshire! http://www.deanforamerica.com/site/TR?pg=personal&fr_id=1090&px=1179278
Focus forward! Feed the bat - we are going to face an avalanche of "frontrunner stumbled" press as the vindictive media exults at Dean's 3rd place finish. We need to be ready to get the message out and push hard. Clark and Lieberman are waiting in NH and it's all about the resources. So let's push forward with redoubled intensity!
And welcome our own local heroes - Amanda and Anna - home from Iowa with a Bat stuffed by another few thousand dollars!
And welcome our own local heroes - Amanda and Anna - home from Iowa with a Bat stuffed by another few thousand dollars!
Monday, January 19, 2004
The Lesson http://209.234.69.20/leaderboard.shtml
Losing is hard. Losing the first race is harder. Losing when you thought you were going to win is hardest.
How did it happen? Some Tuesday morning theories:
1. Turnout. With 1601 of 1993 precincts reporting
attendance was 96476. The final number looks to be under 120,000. That's not a very big number. Dean's pre-caucus "hard count" was 40,000, that is, we expected to get at least 40,000 people into the caucuses. We got about 25,000.
2. Iowa Democrats bought the "Dean is not electable" meme. Sorry, they did. Kerry successfully spun his pro-war vote as candor, Edwards spun his good looks and positive outlook as winning, and the media relentlessly spun our passion as anger. Everything Dean tried in the last few days -- the Carter visit, Judy's visit to Davenport -- came off as desperate.
3. Iowans like outsiders, to a point. The meme that went out about the orange-hatted "Perfect Storm" volunteers was that they were "Perfect Stormtroopers." That's harsh, mean, false, but many of the people who caucused believed it.
4. Iowa eliminates people, but it doesn't select a nominee. A lot of Iowa Democrats wanted to make John Edwards and John Kerry viable. In the end I think our huge effort showed many Dean didn't need them, and they rejected Dick Gephardt.
This week we must find a way to beat the "Dean can't win" meme. The press is not going to let up. And, thanks to Iowa, Republicans will sleep well tonight, figuring the "circular firing squad" will destroy whoever the Democrats nominate.
All that said, remember that primaries are easier to participate in than caucuses. People have all day to vote. They can vote privately. We've got to get our people out, there and in the 7 states that vote a week later.
Just remember the stakes. Edwards and Clark have unilaterally disarmed against the Bush $200 million. Kerry is going to fight back with ketchup. This is the only campaign that can go toe-to-toe with the GOP through the summer.
That's how you beat the electability meme, in my opinion. That's the message we need to focus on, in my opinion. Democrats want to win, and we need to prove to them we can.
How did it happen? Some Tuesday morning theories:
1. Turnout. With 1601 of 1993 precincts reporting
attendance was 96476. The final number looks to be under 120,000. That's not a very big number. Dean's pre-caucus "hard count" was 40,000, that is, we expected to get at least 40,000 people into the caucuses. We got about 25,000.
2. Iowa Democrats bought the "Dean is not electable" meme. Sorry, they did. Kerry successfully spun his pro-war vote as candor, Edwards spun his good looks and positive outlook as winning, and the media relentlessly spun our passion as anger. Everything Dean tried in the last few days -- the Carter visit, Judy's visit to Davenport -- came off as desperate.
3. Iowans like outsiders, to a point. The meme that went out about the orange-hatted "Perfect Storm" volunteers was that they were "Perfect Stormtroopers." That's harsh, mean, false, but many of the people who caucused believed it.
4. Iowa eliminates people, but it doesn't select a nominee. A lot of Iowa Democrats wanted to make John Edwards and John Kerry viable. In the end I think our huge effort showed many Dean didn't need them, and they rejected Dick Gephardt.
This week we must find a way to beat the "Dean can't win" meme. The press is not going to let up. And, thanks to Iowa, Republicans will sleep well tonight, figuring the "circular firing squad" will destroy whoever the Democrats nominate.
All that said, remember that primaries are easier to participate in than caucuses. People have all day to vote. They can vote privately. We've got to get our people out, there and in the 7 states that vote a week later.
Just remember the stakes. Edwards and Clark have unilaterally disarmed against the Bush $200 million. Kerry is going to fight back with ketchup. This is the only campaign that can go toe-to-toe with the GOP through the summer.
That's how you beat the electability meme, in my opinion. That's the message we need to focus on, in my opinion. Democrats want to win, and we need to prove to them we can.
Dean on Larry King
Dean is on Larry King Live. It sounds like he's conceding to me. He says it looks like Sen. Kerry will win and he intends to win the nomination.
"I'm looking forward to NH. It's a new day, a new state."
"On to New Hampshire."
Trippi on MSNBC: "It was our message that won tonight." (on Kerry and Edwards sounding more like Dean).
"We've only just begun to fight."
"Bush says, 'You're either with us, or against us.' This campaign says, 'That's great. We're against you.'"
"I'm looking forward to NH. It's a new day, a new state."
"On to New Hampshire."
Trippi on MSNBC: "It was our message that won tonight." (on Kerry and Edwards sounding more like Dean).
"We've only just begun to fight."
"Bush says, 'You're either with us, or against us.' This campaign says, 'That's great. We're against you.'"
Don't Overreact http://www.dmregister.com/
I think it's worth a new post to say this. Don't overreact here. Gephardt was a surprise Iowa winner in 1988. Then he ran out of money, and the primaries continued. In 1992, Clinton lost both Iowa and New Hampshire. Electability was a key concern, and people feared he was unelectable due to the accusations of dodging the draft, marital infidelity, and whatever else was going on. The news here isn't good, but I stand by what I said below about Iowa having made this campaign stronger.
UPDATE: Just so that this sounds less like spin: The early numbers are very good for Kerry and Edwards and very bad for Dean and Gephardt. This post was in response to what seemed a sense of hopelessness around the comments on various sites. They seemed an over-reaction. I believe that 1996 and 2000 were rather boring primary cycles in which candidates locked up establishment support, money, and grassroots very early, and this year will be more like 1988 and 1992 in which things are more competitive. So while I am concerned, I see no reason whatsoever to give up.
UPDATE: Just so that this sounds less like spin: The early numbers are very good for Kerry and Edwards and very bad for Dean and Gephardt. This post was in response to what seemed a sense of hopelessness around the comments on various sites. They seemed an over-reaction. I believe that 1996 and 2000 were rather boring primary cycles in which candidates locked up establishment support, money, and grassroots very early, and this year will be more like 1988 and 1992 in which things are more competitive. So while I am concerned, I see no reason whatsoever to give up.
A Good Feeling... http://www.deanforamericagame.com
Just remember: Other candidates may claim momentum, but we have the video game.
Whatever happens tonight, this campaign has the feel of a winner. Iowa has made us stronger. We got hit with a barrage of attacks right as people were starting to tune in after the holidays, yet we're still among the race's frontrunners. We now know the concerns people have about Dean, and are crafting strategies to address them. Even if we get crushed, that just means that the other candidates may leave us for dead and go after each other while we use our advantage in money and volunteers to keep up the pressure in all 50 states. This is only the beginning.
My head tells me I should help lower expectations, but for some reason, I just have a really good feeling about this. Amidst all the uncertainty, my heart tells me that tonight we'll turn in a strong Iowa performance that will light a beacon of hope seen all across America, from New Hampshire to Arizona, Washington to South Carolina. And it starts in just over an hour...
Whatever happens tonight, this campaign has the feel of a winner. Iowa has made us stronger. We got hit with a barrage of attacks right as people were starting to tune in after the holidays, yet we're still among the race's frontrunners. We now know the concerns people have about Dean, and are crafting strategies to address them. Even if we get crushed, that just means that the other candidates may leave us for dead and go after each other while we use our advantage in money and volunteers to keep up the pressure in all 50 states. This is only the beginning.
My head tells me I should help lower expectations, but for some reason, I just have a really good feeling about this. Amidst all the uncertainty, my heart tells me that tonight we'll turn in a strong Iowa performance that will light a beacon of hope seen all across America, from New Hampshire to Arizona, Washington to South Carolina. And it starts in just over an hour...
Caucus night open thread
A round of applause, please, for Amanda, Anna, and all our other Dean Nation alumni at the Storm Center. Allow me to instigate a call of "encore!" for Trippi's guest bloggage!
Random pictures from the Storm Center
images removed to conserve my bandwidth; visit annatopia's iowa caucus archives
Rumors from Des Moines & special guest blog
Well today is D-Day, and the rumors are flying. We've got the rumor that Kucinich cut a deal with John Edwards, and he's asked his supporters to caucus for Edwards if Kucinich doesn't get his 15%. I don't think that's going to fly with the Kucinich camp. Every single Kucinich supporter I've met had said that Dean is their second choice and that they will not vote for someone who authorised the war and co-wrote the (un)PATRIOT(ic) act.
Also, Kerry has been push-polling. LOVELY. What a class act, that Kerry guy. And seniors in Iowa are getting recorded calls telling them to caucus at 8pm. We don't know where those calls are originating, but it smells of RNC dirty tricks.
And just so you know, the young Rethuglicans have been out in full force trying to disrupt events held by Democratic candidates. You can smell the fear emanating from their side of the aisle. At Drake University on Saturday (the Dean event with Joan Jett & Janeane Garafalo), the young thugs stormed the event and carried in Bush-Cheney04 banners. They were yelling things like, "Where's your flag?" and crap like that. Joan Jett started singing the Star Spangled Banner and pretty soon the entire crowd joined in and ran the RNC thugs out of the room. Some Kerry and Kucinich supporters told me the same things have happened at their events.
But the bottom line is that the Democrats are going to be strong this year and the RNC knows it. You can smell the desperation. No matter who the Democrats nominate, we will win.
Des Moines is pretty crazy right now. The Storm Center is rockin' right now. The phone banks are buzzing, canvass teams are still arriving and departing, the media is everywhere. Oh, and the Gov did some phone-banking today. I didn't get any pictures because he is being guarded pretty heavily (there's finally a big, beefy bodyguard in his entourage), but he was on the phones for over an hour.
**
Dean supporter Ray Minchew of Washington for Dean phone banks undecided caucus-goers
Here's the random media picture for the day:
**
L-R, Colette (cdmarine from the Kos boards), Mort Kondrake, Anna
Mort was actually a pretty funny guy. I told him (with more than a twinge of sarcasm) that I'd watched him last night on FAUX and I thought his coverage was actually fair and balanced (it really was, for once). He laughed and asked how often I watched FAUX. I told him rarely, and he said, "Keeping an eye on the enemy?" I said "yes" and he laughed out loud. A few jokes about FAUX news ensued, and Mort was a good sport and laughed right along with us. Then he posed for pictures with all of us hanging out in the room which has become known as Blog Central.
Tom Brokaw has been here today, and he gets a thumbs down from Blog Central. When a volunteer named Marty asked, "Mr Brokaw, can I get a picture with you?", he refused, saying "I've gotta find Dean". As he stormed off, Marty said, "Clean it up, Tom." Other than that little moment, it's all been positive.
The field organisers are starting to stress a bit, which is to be expected. If they weren't a bit tense I'd be worried. But the overall vibe is so upbeat and positive today, and I've got a good feeling about tonight.
Speaking of good vibes, I've got a special guest standing over my shoulder waiting to guest blog, so I'll turn it over to DFA campaign manager Joe Trippi:
**
For over a year the netroots and grassroots have carried our campaign and made the difference every step of the way. It is a close race in Iowa -- and tonight it will be the same netroots and grassroots that make the difference. 3500 strong volunteers from across the nation are canvassing and gaining support for Howard Dean and getting people to the caucus.
We emerged from the pack because of each of your efforts -- and tonight Howard Dean will come "storm'n back" because of the grassroots Iowa Storm that is rolling through the state of Iowa right now. I went out and knocked on doors with the grassroots yesterday --- and the response was great -- we are gaining steam.
People are really getting that this election is about power.
Its about who owns our government and who runs it.
The corporate special interests defending the status quo
or the American people demanding change.
Democracy is not easy -- the other campaigns and the doubters and cynics are trying to stop our movement -- but we will not be stopped.
Thank you for everything you are doing for the campaign and our cause. This is really the place it all began.
Joe Trippi
campaign manager
Dean for America
cross-posted to annatopia, please go there for the images. i've removed them from here to conserve my bandwidth.
Also, Kerry has been push-polling. LOVELY. What a class act, that Kerry guy. And seniors in Iowa are getting recorded calls telling them to caucus at 8pm. We don't know where those calls are originating, but it smells of RNC dirty tricks.
And just so you know, the young Rethuglicans have been out in full force trying to disrupt events held by Democratic candidates. You can smell the fear emanating from their side of the aisle. At Drake University on Saturday (the Dean event with Joan Jett & Janeane Garafalo), the young thugs stormed the event and carried in Bush-Cheney04 banners. They were yelling things like, "Where's your flag?" and crap like that. Joan Jett started singing the Star Spangled Banner and pretty soon the entire crowd joined in and ran the RNC thugs out of the room. Some Kerry and Kucinich supporters told me the same things have happened at their events.
But the bottom line is that the Democrats are going to be strong this year and the RNC knows it. You can smell the desperation. No matter who the Democrats nominate, we will win.
Des Moines is pretty crazy right now. The Storm Center is rockin' right now. The phone banks are buzzing, canvass teams are still arriving and departing, the media is everywhere. Oh, and the Gov did some phone-banking today. I didn't get any pictures because he is being guarded pretty heavily (there's finally a big, beefy bodyguard in his entourage), but he was on the phones for over an hour.
**
Dean supporter Ray Minchew of Washington for Dean phone banks undecided caucus-goers
Here's the random media picture for the day:
**
L-R, Colette (cdmarine from the Kos boards), Mort Kondrake, Anna
Mort was actually a pretty funny guy. I told him (with more than a twinge of sarcasm) that I'd watched him last night on FAUX and I thought his coverage was actually fair and balanced (it really was, for once). He laughed and asked how often I watched FAUX. I told him rarely, and he said, "Keeping an eye on the enemy?" I said "yes" and he laughed out loud. A few jokes about FAUX news ensued, and Mort was a good sport and laughed right along with us. Then he posed for pictures with all of us hanging out in the room which has become known as Blog Central.
Tom Brokaw has been here today, and he gets a thumbs down from Blog Central. When a volunteer named Marty asked, "Mr Brokaw, can I get a picture with you?", he refused, saying "I've gotta find Dean". As he stormed off, Marty said, "Clean it up, Tom." Other than that little moment, it's all been positive.
The field organisers are starting to stress a bit, which is to be expected. If they weren't a bit tense I'd be worried. But the overall vibe is so upbeat and positive today, and I've got a good feeling about tonight.
Speaking of good vibes, I've got a special guest standing over my shoulder waiting to guest blog, so I'll turn it over to DFA campaign manager Joe Trippi:
**
For over a year the netroots and grassroots have carried our campaign and made the difference every step of the way. It is a close race in Iowa -- and tonight it will be the same netroots and grassroots that make the difference. 3500 strong volunteers from across the nation are canvassing and gaining support for Howard Dean and getting people to the caucus.
We emerged from the pack because of each of your efforts -- and tonight Howard Dean will come "storm'n back" because of the grassroots Iowa Storm that is rolling through the state of Iowa right now. I went out and knocked on doors with the grassroots yesterday --- and the response was great -- we are gaining steam.
People are really getting that this election is about power.
Its about who owns our government and who runs it.
The corporate special interests defending the status quo
or the American people demanding change.
Democracy is not easy -- the other campaigns and the doubters and cynics are trying to stop our movement -- but we will not be stopped.
Thank you for everything you are doing for the campaign and our cause. This is really the place it all began.
Joe Trippi
campaign manager
Dean for America
cross-posted to annatopia, please go there for the images. i've removed them from here to conserve my bandwidth.
Daily Review
Dean Gets Support From Wife, Jimmy Carter
Markets favor Dean in Iowa
Dem Campaign Heads on 'Fox News Sunday'
Ex-Air Force leader stumps for Dean
Kerry, Dean consolidate lead, Iowa poll shows
Dean tired, but upbeat on eve of caucuses
Howard Dean in the N.H. primary
All Eyes on Iowa
Tight Four-Way Iowa Race Kicks Off Campaign
Markets favor Dean in Iowa
Dem Campaign Heads on 'Fox News Sunday'
Ex-Air Force leader stumps for Dean
Kerry, Dean consolidate lead, Iowa poll shows
Dean tired, but upbeat on eve of caucuses
Howard Dean in the N.H. primary
All Eyes on Iowa
Tight Four-Way Iowa Race Kicks Off Campaign
Sunday, January 18, 2004
What Is Dean's Hard Count http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/1/18/184317/439
Every cycle or two, a reporter gets you so far inside the political locker room you can smell the sweat.
At this Iowa caucus that honor may go to Tom Schaller, a political science professor from Maryland who is blogging for Dailykos.
Today, he talked about "hard counts," the number of people you know you can turn out to the caucus (a number I've been harping on here). What is Dean's hard count, and how does it compare with the total number of peope due to attend tomorrow's caucuses?
Steve McMahon, Joe Trippi's partner in the Dean brain trust, looks like Sylvester grinning with Tweety Bird in his mouth. He won't give the number, of course, but he seems very confident that his hard count will be a high enough numerator no matter what the denominator.
And here's why: The rumor last night is that, of Dean's hard count "ones", a startling 60 to 65 percent of them are self-identified, first time caucus-goers. McMahon could be spinning, but that doesn't make sense - he surely does not want to raise expectations and then have to explain comparative failure on Tuesday. Second place, certainly third, and definitely fourth, would be comparative failure.
If it's true about the share of committed "ones" that are first-timers, however, and if the total number of hard count Deanies (first time or rarely-participating or newly-affiliating Democrats, whatever) is that high, this is important because this means Dean is toting a disproportionate share of these beneath-the-radar voters.
That is, if the denominator (the total number of caucus-goers) is larger than expected or we've seen historically, those new or newly-engaged people are disproportionately committed to Dean and his growing numerator (the number of Dean supporters at the caucus) is pushing up the growing denominator. (In other words, the total expected for the caucus is going up because there are so many first-time Dean caucus-goers.)
One related point: The dirtier the list the Iowa Democratic party sold all the campaigns, the better it is for the campaigns with the most field resources, those of Dean and Gephardt, because they have had the time to work through and clean it, tighten it. (Schaller understands that the list of Democrats sold by the Iowa party to campaigns and pollsters is very "dirty," with lots of mistakes in it, mistakes you must take time to fix before you can get any use of it.) In theory (and practice?), Dean and Gephardt have worked out kinks that Kerry and Edwards are just now encountering.
Bringing this full circle, the New Republic's Ryan Lizza and I pestered McMahon about whether these late polls, and the whole Kerry/Edwards surge news cycle, is potentially the BEST thing to happen to Dean, because it is lowering expectations for Dean's campaign without Dean having to do a darn thing himself.
McMahon conceded it could be, though he really didn't seem bothered about the polls or any expectations-game post-Iowa spin opportunities. His take is that it is what it is - the number will be what it will be. And he repeats that this is just Moment 1, and that the others cannot keep up over the long haul of the next two months in states where Dean is up and running and they are not.
Still, I think the poll numbers of the past two weeks (especially last 4-5 days) set things up this way: If Dean wins by any margin at this point, suddenly he is again the candidate who continues to surprise his doubters.
But that only happens if the Tweety Bird (Dean's true, undisclosed hard count) is really real, and not just a few feathers poking out of the corners of McMahon's mouth.
We'll know the Iowa answer tomorrow. And then we go on.
Road Trip! (Gotta Love The Three-Day Weekend) http://blog.deanforamerica.com/archives/003241.html
The press was alerted that a "special guest" would accompany Governor Dean to his Davenport rally this afternoon.
Here she is:
Meet me at the airport hanger, Judy Dean, Judy Dean.
And for those who think that the good doctor (as opposed to her husband, the Good Doctor) is running out on her patients, know this.
We have a three-day weekend here. Tomorrow is not just Iowa caucus night, but the MLK holiday. Dr. Judith Steinberg Dean has two other physicians in practice with her, so her patients have coverage. She really doesn't have to be back at the office until Tuesday morning.
And, I ask you, what could be a more romantic rendezvous than Davenport, Iowa in January?
For those of you who insist on a "traditional" political wife as "First Lady," People also reported this week she makes a good chocolate chip cookie. (Now if she has time tonight to switch her husband from strawberry milk shakes to smoothies we're golden.)
Here she is:
Meet me at the airport hanger, Judy Dean, Judy Dean.
And for those who think that the good doctor (as opposed to her husband, the Good Doctor) is running out on her patients, know this.
We have a three-day weekend here. Tomorrow is not just Iowa caucus night, but the MLK holiday. Dr. Judith Steinberg Dean has two other physicians in practice with her, so her patients have coverage. She really doesn't have to be back at the office until Tuesday morning.
And, I ask you, what could be a more romantic rendezvous than Davenport, Iowa in January?
For those of you who insist on a "traditional" political wife as "First Lady," People also reported this week she makes a good chocolate chip cookie. (Now if she has time tonight to switch her husband from strawberry milk shakes to smoothies we're golden.)
Medical Deferments
By now, we've all heard the story about how Howard Dean got a medical deferment from Vietnam yet went skiing shortly thereafter. By now, of course, we know that even if he had gone AWOL from the National Guard, he would still be a viable candidate, but enough Americans have an understandable distaste for avoided military service that it might become a factor in a close race.
The reality, however, is this: The military standards for physical fitness are very high. When I was applying to colleges, I of course got the military recruiting me, as well. As you might imagine, they were persistent. Until I told them I had asthma, at which point one told me that even if I wanted to they couldn't take me. Yet this is a very mild asthma that has never prevented me from doing any physical activity I wanted. I have a friend who was for a time excited about joining the army. However, he didn't make it, and told me there were physical reasons. Even during Vietnam, these standards were high. I know one man who has sub-par vision in one eye, and for that reason was rejected by the Vietnam-era military. And I'll dare anyone to compare the rigors of war to those of a weekend skiing.
I'm sure Dean would be a stronger candidate if he had Kerry's or Clark's war record, but we're electing candidates, not designing them. And the most important criteria for election is who representes the best political leader for the present, not the best war hero from the past. After all, both Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon fought in World War II. Johnson even had a Silver Star. This did not do the troops in Vietnam a whole world of good. What we need to consider is which potential President has the sound judgement and courage of his convictions today, not the best health 30 years ago.
The reality, however, is this: The military standards for physical fitness are very high. When I was applying to colleges, I of course got the military recruiting me, as well. As you might imagine, they were persistent. Until I told them I had asthma, at which point one told me that even if I wanted to they couldn't take me. Yet this is a very mild asthma that has never prevented me from doing any physical activity I wanted. I have a friend who was for a time excited about joining the army. However, he didn't make it, and told me there were physical reasons. Even during Vietnam, these standards were high. I know one man who has sub-par vision in one eye, and for that reason was rejected by the Vietnam-era military. And I'll dare anyone to compare the rigors of war to those of a weekend skiing.
I'm sure Dean would be a stronger candidate if he had Kerry's or Clark's war record, but we're electing candidates, not designing them. And the most important criteria for election is who representes the best political leader for the present, not the best war hero from the past. After all, both Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon fought in World War II. Johnson even had a Silver Star. This did not do the troops in Vietnam a whole world of good. What we need to consider is which potential President has the sound judgement and courage of his convictions today, not the best health 30 years ago.
Carter Praises Dean's 'Courageous' Stands http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/politics/7741709.htm
It wasn't an official endorsement, but it's hard to see whether there's any difference in the distinction! Carter clearly sees in Dean a fellow traveler:
Dean As Matt notes, Dean returned the praise, making explicit mention of Carter's legacy of explicitly linking human rights with foreign policy. In so doing, Carter perfected Neo-Wilsonianism, the commitment to encouraging democratic, free nations. The difference between this and Neo Conservatism is that the latter's commitment to actual democracy falls short when the People of said nation refuse to fall into line with American interests.
During Sunday school, Dean sat with Rosalynn Carter at the far end of a pew toward the front. Former President Carter opened the lesson by asking visitors to say which state they were from and when Dean called out Vermont, laughter arose from the packed congregation. Carter introduced Dean and asked him to stand for applause.
Carter's lesson was on integrity and he taught from the book of Job, which Dean recently said was his favorite book of the Bible. Carter told reporters that Job's struggles with those who falsely accused him of being a sinner reminded him of the attacks he suffered during his first presidential campaign.
"After I won in Iowa, I realized what Job was talking about," Carter said. "It seemed like everybody descended on me with all kinds of abuse and accusations, and I felt like I was innocent."
Dean As Matt notes, Dean returned the praise, making explicit mention of Carter's legacy of explicitly linking human rights with foreign policy. In so doing, Carter perfected Neo-Wilsonianism, the commitment to encouraging democratic, free nations. The difference between this and Neo Conservatism is that the latter's commitment to actual democracy falls short when the People of said nation refuse to fall into line with American interests.
Endorsement in the Works?
These normally come out when Dean is about to receive an endorsement. Similar advisories were sent out for the Gore and Mosley-Braun endorsements. Has anyone heard who this might be?
Cross Posted on Grassroots for Dean
** MEDIA ADVISORY **
January 18, 2004
DES MOINES--Governor Dean will be joined by a special guest today on the
campaign trail for events in Davenport and Cedar Rapids.
Who: Governor Howard Dean and special guest
When: January 18, 2004
4:30 PM
Davenport Rally
West High School Cafeteria)
3505 West Locust, Davenport, IA
7:30 PM
Cedar Rapids Rally
Jefferson High School
3505 West Locust
Cross Posted on Grassroots for Dean
Going To The Caucus? Here Is How To Win It
If you're an Iowan and you will be 18 by November 2, if you're a Democrat or registered independent, you can attend one of 1,993 caucuses across the state starting at 6:30 PM Central Time tomorrow.
So you're there. What can you do to win it?
1. Look for Dean caucusers who were independent, previously Republican, or who never voted before. Count them. Talk to them. Listen to them tell you why they are there.
2. Suporters of the 4 main candidates may be moved into separate corners of the caucus room fairly quickly. Size up where you stand, and how many are left in the middle.
3. One out of each candidate's supporters gets a chance, after the initial tally, to say a few words aimed at swaying the undecideds. Remember the key issue: electability. If the task falls to you emphasize that we're the minority party, that we need independents and Republicans to win. Then point to each of your new voters in turn, and watch them nod while you tick off what brought them there.
4. Be friendly. Be courteous. Be yourself. Be neighborly. This is supposed to be fun. Make it fun, as much fun as you can make it for your neighbors in the room, and you have a better chance of moving people your way.
Remember. We have the biggest, best organization that has ever hit Iowa. It's very likely there will be more Dean people in your caucus than supporters of anyone else. But it's up to you to move the undecideds, and the waverers, over to our side.
In a caucus, you really do have the power. All of it. Use it wisely.
So you're there. What can you do to win it?
1. Look for Dean caucusers who were independent, previously Republican, or who never voted before. Count them. Talk to them. Listen to them tell you why they are there.
2. Suporters of the 4 main candidates may be moved into separate corners of the caucus room fairly quickly. Size up where you stand, and how many are left in the middle.
3. One out of each candidate's supporters gets a chance, after the initial tally, to say a few words aimed at swaying the undecideds. Remember the key issue: electability. If the task falls to you emphasize that we're the minority party, that we need independents and Republicans to win. Then point to each of your new voters in turn, and watch them nod while you tick off what brought them there.
4. Be friendly. Be courteous. Be yourself. Be neighborly. This is supposed to be fun. Make it fun, as much fun as you can make it for your neighbors in the room, and you have a better chance of moving people your way.
Remember. We have the biggest, best organization that has ever hit Iowa. It's very likely there will be more Dean people in your caucus than supporters of anyone else. But it's up to you to move the undecideds, and the waverers, over to our side.
In a caucus, you really do have the power. All of it. Use it wisely.
CNN Presents canvassing with Joe Trippi and the Texas Rangers
Tonight make sure you tune in to CNN presents. It runs at 8pm eastern time. They'll be running the piece that was filmed yesterday when we canvassed with Trippi & TX director Glen Maxey. They will also be showing a bit of the Texas snowball fight. Keep your eyes peeled for me. At one point I got beaned in the head and my hat flew off, heh, which should be pretty funny to watch. *smile*
I've just arrived at HQ and canvassing is going to start in about 30 minutes. Right now the Storm Center is packed with volunteers and, naturally, tons of press. Oh, speaking of the press, for some reason the FAUX news satellite truck has a Dean bumper sticker on it. Heh. No I did not do, I don't know who did, but it was still there this morning. Thanks for finally getting on board, FAUX! *wink*
And I apologise for last night's incoherent post. I was literally running on four hours of sleep over two days. I wanted to write more about Tim Russert's visit, so I'll do so now. Tim was actually very charming in person, and much larger than he looks on tv. He's got to be at least 6 feet tall. Anyway, he was really nice to everyone and took the time to pose for pictures with everyone who asked, but he wouldn't pose with Flat Howard or put on his Storm hat. Naturally I had to give him a bit of crap for that. He kept saying "I've got to be impartial." I told him, "Oh okay, we see how you are. You just came for the free stuff." Then he replied that if he posed with Flat Howard, we'd put it on the blog. Of course we would, Tim. Then I was told that MTP has a staff dedicated to reading the blogs, and had a brief conversation with Tim's assistant, who told me that they love the blogs and they read them all. So if you ever doubt that the media is getting our message, rest assured they are. They just don't know what to do with it yet.
A northerner blew in last night, and we awoke to temperatures of 17 degrees. It is FREEZING! I'm kinda upset because I've lost my ski gloves. I have a sneaking suspicion that I left them at HQ in my tired haze... Everyone is bundled up tight and the energy level is through the roof. Today will probably be the day that we put it over the top.
Now I read Dana's post below and he's pretty much got it right. At this point we are ground troops following orders form our commanders. We know our mission, we are focused and determined, and we are executing the plan. Don't believe the pundits if they're already writing our obituaries. I have a gut feeling that we are going to win this thing. Our organisation is *amazing*. The only other candidate that really seems to have a ton of people on the ground is Dick Gephardt. I've seen quite a few Gephardt folks around our hotel (I think actually that our hotel is ground zero for the Gep volunteer camp) and on the streets, one Edwards supporter on Friday, and a sea of Dean people. Literally a seas of Dean people. *smile*
Well folks, I need to run and go get on a canvassing team. I'll post an update when I get back, provided my fingers haven't frozen solid. Send us some good, warm vibes Dean Nation!
I've just arrived at HQ and canvassing is going to start in about 30 minutes. Right now the Storm Center is packed with volunteers and, naturally, tons of press. Oh, speaking of the press, for some reason the FAUX news satellite truck has a Dean bumper sticker on it. Heh. No I did not do, I don't know who did, but it was still there this morning. Thanks for finally getting on board, FAUX! *wink*
And I apologise for last night's incoherent post. I was literally running on four hours of sleep over two days. I wanted to write more about Tim Russert's visit, so I'll do so now. Tim was actually very charming in person, and much larger than he looks on tv. He's got to be at least 6 feet tall. Anyway, he was really nice to everyone and took the time to pose for pictures with everyone who asked, but he wouldn't pose with Flat Howard or put on his Storm hat. Naturally I had to give him a bit of crap for that. He kept saying "I've got to be impartial." I told him, "Oh okay, we see how you are. You just came for the free stuff." Then he replied that if he posed with Flat Howard, we'd put it on the blog. Of course we would, Tim. Then I was told that MTP has a staff dedicated to reading the blogs, and had a brief conversation with Tim's assistant, who told me that they love the blogs and they read them all. So if you ever doubt that the media is getting our message, rest assured they are. They just don't know what to do with it yet.
A northerner blew in last night, and we awoke to temperatures of 17 degrees. It is FREEZING! I'm kinda upset because I've lost my ski gloves. I have a sneaking suspicion that I left them at HQ in my tired haze... Everyone is bundled up tight and the energy level is through the roof. Today will probably be the day that we put it over the top.
Now I read Dana's post below and he's pretty much got it right. At this point we are ground troops following orders form our commanders. We know our mission, we are focused and determined, and we are executing the plan. Don't believe the pundits if they're already writing our obituaries. I have a gut feeling that we are going to win this thing. Our organisation is *amazing*. The only other candidate that really seems to have a ton of people on the ground is Dick Gephardt. I've seen quite a few Gephardt folks around our hotel (I think actually that our hotel is ground zero for the Gep volunteer camp) and on the streets, one Edwards supporter on Friday, and a sea of Dean people. Literally a seas of Dean people. *smile*
Well folks, I need to run and go get on a canvassing team. I'll post an update when I get back, provided my fingers haven't frozen solid. Send us some good, warm vibes Dean Nation!
Daily Review
Dean Optimistic About Iowa Win, Rallies Supporters
Tight Race Amid Shifting Views
Former congressman endorses Dean
Kilpatrick endorses Dean
Dean headed into Deep South to meet with Carter
Tight Race Amid Shifting Views
Carter's son says Dean can win in South
This Guy Can Rock the White House
Dems Crisscross Iowa for Caucus Support
Tight Race Amid Shifting Views
Former congressman endorses Dean
Kilpatrick endorses Dean
Dean headed into Deep South to meet with Carter
Tight Race Amid Shifting Views
Carter's son says Dean can win in South
This Guy Can Rock the White House
Dems Crisscross Iowa for Caucus Support
Saturday, January 17, 2004
The Expectations Game http://polisat.com/DailyPoliticalSatire-Commentary/du20y04m01d16-01.htm
In all the excitement (and let's face it gang, FUN) of the Perfect Storm in Iowa, it's easy to lose sight of reality.
Those on the ground are in the position of soldiers in a war, in that none of them can really see how the battle is going, just their own little corner of it.
That's true for the press, too.
So, the media has gone with its favorite election-eve meme. The polls are tightening. Anything can happen.
What I think is that, in the current lingo, "It's all good."
If anything can happen, then any win is a good win. We're still "expected" to win, but if we win by 3-5 points now, it's a big win.
It has become pretty obvious that the press doesn't even believe its own story. I'm seeing a lot of hedging of bets. A CNN panel spent an entire show talking about how close it's getting, how Kerry and Edwards are surging, then they all predicted a Dean win.
And right now the trolls don't even know Kerry and Edwards exist. I haven't read silly lies about "Frenchie" Kerry or "Phony" Edwards on a right-wing site like Newsmax or Michnews or CNSNews in weeks. Instead I'm seeing nonstop (often amazingly-transparent) lies about the Good Goctor. That's the best way to know how they really feel. They're scared of us (with reason).
In fact some of the "second day" stories on what happens Monday are already being written.
The fact is this. We have already changed politics. We have already changed the political dynamic. All our opponents are copying us. We've gone from "Bush-lite" to "Dean-lite," and while imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, why (as we said about Bush-lite) would anyone accept an imitation when the Real Thing is right at hand?
So just remember the task at hand, Perfect Stormers. It is to get out all of those "1s" at 6:30 Central on Monday, every single one, and hope your hard work has turned some 2s and 3s our way as well. Do your job and we'll have 40,000, 50,000, maybe 60,000 Deaniacs to party with. Then, whatever our number, let's see if our opponents can beat it.
Personally, I don't think they can. But what I think, what anyone thinks, doesn't matter at all. The only thing that matters is what you can do in the next 48 hours.
Those on the ground are in the position of soldiers in a war, in that none of them can really see how the battle is going, just their own little corner of it.
That's true for the press, too.
So, the media has gone with its favorite election-eve meme. The polls are tightening. Anything can happen.
What I think is that, in the current lingo, "It's all good."
If anything can happen, then any win is a good win. We're still "expected" to win, but if we win by 3-5 points now, it's a big win.
It has become pretty obvious that the press doesn't even believe its own story. I'm seeing a lot of hedging of bets. A CNN panel spent an entire show talking about how close it's getting, how Kerry and Edwards are surging, then they all predicted a Dean win.
And right now the trolls don't even know Kerry and Edwards exist. I haven't read silly lies about "Frenchie" Kerry or "Phony" Edwards on a right-wing site like Newsmax or Michnews or CNSNews in weeks. Instead I'm seeing nonstop (often amazingly-transparent) lies about the Good Goctor. That's the best way to know how they really feel. They're scared of us (with reason).
In fact some of the "second day" stories on what happens Monday are already being written.
The fact is this. We have already changed politics. We have already changed the political dynamic. All our opponents are copying us. We've gone from "Bush-lite" to "Dean-lite," and while imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, why (as we said about Bush-lite) would anyone accept an imitation when the Real Thing is right at hand?
So just remember the task at hand, Perfect Stormers. It is to get out all of those "1s" at 6:30 Central on Monday, every single one, and hope your hard work has turned some 2s and 3s our way as well. Do your job and we'll have 40,000, 50,000, maybe 60,000 Deaniacs to party with. Then, whatever our number, let's see if our opponents can beat it.
Personally, I don't think they can. But what I think, what anyone thinks, doesn't matter at all. The only thing that matters is what you can do in the next 48 hours.
Images from Iowa
here's a few of the pictures i promised. first, from the blogger's breakfast this morning, we have congressman boswell:
**
here's a picture of gwen graham logan (daughter of senator bob graham) blogging at the blogger's breakfast:
**
congressman boswell thanked the bloggers profusely for their support. gwen graham logan told the story of how comforted she was due to the outpouring of goodwill from dean supporters to her family when senator graham decided to withdraw from the race. she choked up, and many of us did as well. i was fortunate enough to have a moment with her, and i found her kind and smart and pretty damned amazing. what a great lady.
later on i headed to HQ with heath, then we went out to canvass with a family from minnesota. afterwards heath headed north to get more footage of the gov and i came back to the storm center. joe trippi and texas state director glen maxey went out to canvass, and i got pulled in along with Sally in SF, Patty from VT and her two sons. a camerawoman from cnn presents tagged along, as did nbc. they filmed us as we canvassed. here's a picture of joe door knocking:
**
after we were done canvassing cnn filed the texans having a snowball fight. so later on, if you see that on cnn, that's us. =)
after we returned to the storm center i grabbed a quick bite to eat (nothing like breakfast at 3 in the afternoon) and missed amanda by about fifteen minutes. while i was wandering around, guess who walked in?
**
yup. pumpkinhead. he got a bunch of schwag (hats, shirts, stickers, etc) and took a ton of pictures with the volunteers. i was really nice and was able to bite my tongue and not ask tim why he's such a MW, but only because his assistant told me they have a staff that reads all the blogs. heh. so MTP staff, if you're reading this, tell tim that he needs to pose with flat howard next time he comes to the office.
as it stands i'm pretty exhausted and i think i'm going to go take a nap. when i wake up i'll check in again. TTFN.
cross-posted to annatopia. ** images removed to conserve bandwidth. please visit annatopia's iowa caucus archive to view them
**
here's a picture of gwen graham logan (daughter of senator bob graham) blogging at the blogger's breakfast:
**
congressman boswell thanked the bloggers profusely for their support. gwen graham logan told the story of how comforted she was due to the outpouring of goodwill from dean supporters to her family when senator graham decided to withdraw from the race. she choked up, and many of us did as well. i was fortunate enough to have a moment with her, and i found her kind and smart and pretty damned amazing. what a great lady.
later on i headed to HQ with heath, then we went out to canvass with a family from minnesota. afterwards heath headed north to get more footage of the gov and i came back to the storm center. joe trippi and texas state director glen maxey went out to canvass, and i got pulled in along with Sally in SF, Patty from VT and her two sons. a camerawoman from cnn presents tagged along, as did nbc. they filmed us as we canvassed. here's a picture of joe door knocking:
**
after we were done canvassing cnn filed the texans having a snowball fight. so later on, if you see that on cnn, that's us. =)
after we returned to the storm center i grabbed a quick bite to eat (nothing like breakfast at 3 in the afternoon) and missed amanda by about fifteen minutes. while i was wandering around, guess who walked in?
**
yup. pumpkinhead. he got a bunch of schwag (hats, shirts, stickers, etc) and took a ton of pictures with the volunteers. i was really nice and was able to bite my tongue and not ask tim why he's such a MW, but only because his assistant told me they have a staff that reads all the blogs. heh. so MTP staff, if you're reading this, tell tim that he needs to pose with flat howard next time he comes to the office.
as it stands i'm pretty exhausted and i think i'm going to go take a nap. when i wake up i'll check in again. TTFN.
cross-posted to annatopia. ** images removed to conserve bandwidth. please visit annatopia's iowa caucus archive to view them
Dean on the Internet http://www.joegratz.net/index.php?p=343
Joe Gratz has a detailed explanation of why Howard Dean's principles for Internet policy make sense. He also points out that Dean has a veritable Dream Team of internet policy advisors. It's difficult to excerpt, as he discusses each of Dean's points individually, but the most important may be at the end:
"We must not assume that the way the Internet is used today is the way the Internet will be used in 10, or 15, or 100 years. Decisions we make today radically effect the future of the network."
One more reason why we should all work together to ensure these decisions are made by an administration that knows what it's doing.
"We must not assume that the way the Internet is used today is the way the Internet will be used in 10, or 15, or 100 years. Decisions we make today radically effect the future of the network."
One more reason why we should all work together to ensure these decisions are made by an administration that knows what it's doing.
Greetings from Iowa!
posted by Amanda at Saturday, January 17, 2004
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