The road to Puerto Rico

Only one conclusion can be drawn from Super Tuesday, as far as the Democratic nomination goes: it was super-inconclusive. Obama and Hillary did not win decisively, but rather are now in a true horserace. Clinton's strategy was to go for the big prizes like California and Texas, whereas Obama's was more to aim for the smaller caucuses and primaries, competing everywhere. The parallel to the dispute between party establishment Clintonites like Rahm Emanuel and DNC Chairman Howard Dean over the 50-state strategy is not accidental. There's a deep rift inside the Democratic Party and Clinton stands firmly on one side, Obama (and Dean, and Al Gore) on the other. In fact the nomination process itself is a proxy battle for this civil war; consider the factors that will determine the outcome:

  • a distributed small-donor base versus big-name backers and bundling
  • a "compete everywhere" strategy vs. a "maximized return" strategy
  • the brewing battle over the delegates from Michigan and Florida
  • the actual delegate count vs. the "superdelegates"


on all of these issues, the fundamental rift is whether the Party is a top-down or a bottom-up construct. Until now, the former has held sway, and while the challenge began with Howard Dean's campaign and matured under his tenure as DNC Chair, it is Obama who has finally capitalized on it successfully. Look at how far people-power has come since 2004!

So what will the outcome be? It's possible that the contest will ultimately be solely in the hands of the superdelegates, who are not bound by the outcomes of the primary process as per present DNC rules. However, this is a worst-case scenario (with respect to winning the general election), since it would draw the nomination out until late august and leave only three months for the candidate to fight McCain. The same problem applies to a fight over delegates from MI and FL. This is Hillary's preferred strategy, for obvious reasons (and again, it puts her in opposition to Obama and Dean).

However, there's one way for Obama to avoid that route, and that is to amass a lead greater than 100 delegates over Clinton (which will nullify the FL/MI issue and give him leverage over the superdelegates). How can Obama achieve this? One is to court - and court aggressively - the endorsements of John Edwards and Al Gore. The former has 25 delegates, and the latter would probably tilt a air number of delegates from the Clinton column (though the exact number is impossible to estimate). But the most important piece of the puzzle? 55 delegates from Puerto Rico. PR has a caucus on June 7th, which is still pretty late but leaves the summer open.

Hillary has a disadvantage in caucus states, but she polls better with the Hispanic vote. It isn't winner-take-all, so Obama will have his work cut out for him. If he can't seal the deal in PR, then it's brokered convention time.

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