Tuesday, January 08, 2008
NH: Romney and Obama dual-team McCain, Paul beats Fred
For the Dems, conventional wisdom prior to Iowa was that if Indies turn out en masse, it favors Obama, whereas if Dems turned out en masse it would favor Hillary. Well, it seems both happened, and it all went Obama's way. The overall turnout was enormous, with a record youth vote, but Democrats accounted for 3 out of 4 voters overall.
In contrast, GOP turnout was abyssmal. If that pattern continues, and the indies defect to Obama rather than McCain, there could well be a major upset even on the GOP side. With that in mind, here are my predictions for NH.
GOP: I am going to postulate that the independents go for Obama 3-1, leaving only scraps for McCain, giving Romney the edge. McCain will probably still take second, and Thompson and Ron Paul will duke it out for the next tier. I think Ron Paul has a better advantage in NH than he did in Iowa so I will go out on a limb and say he edges out Fred. Huck will place far below, but still beat Rudy.
Democrats: Obama is the easy call here, followed by Clinton and then Edwards. Not much else to really say about that. Hillary's path to the nomination hinges on her taking all the Feb 5th states that she can. Any of those states where indies can vote in the primary will probably go to Obama. The closed primaries, she has a fighting chance and will focus her energy there. From there on out it will be a horse race.
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Obama 2008 - I want my country back
Nation-Building was founded by Aziz Poonawalla in August 2002 under the name Dean Nation. Dean Nation was the very first weblog devoted to a presidential candidate, Howard Dean, and became the vanguard of the Dean netroot phenomenon, raising over $40,000 for the Dean campaign, pioneering the use of Meetup, and enjoying the attention of the campaign itself, with Joe Trippi a regular reader (and sometime commentor). Howard Dean himself even left a comment once. Dean Nation was a group weblog effort and counts among its alumni many of the progressive blogsphere's leading talent including Jerome Armstrong, Matthew Yglesias, and Ezra Klein. After the election in 2004, the blog refocused onto the theme of "purple politics", formally changing its name to Nation-Building in June 2006. The primary focus of the blog is on articulating purple-state policy at home and pragmatic liberal interventionism abroad.