NH: Romney and Obama dual-team McCain, Paul beats Fred
OK, so I was waaaay off base in my prediction for Iowa. It would have been pretty dull if I'd just parroted the Des Moines Register final poll as my predictions, wouldn't it? I am fine with having been so utterly wrong (and at least I still claim first dibs on "Huck fin". I just need to wait a bit longer to use it.)
For the Dems, conventional wisdom prior to Iowa was that if Indies turn out en masse, it favors Obama, whereas if Dems turned out en masse it would favor Hillary. Well, it seems both happened, and it all went Obama's way. The overall turnout was enormous, with a record youth vote, but Democrats accounted for 3 out of 4 voters overall.
In contrast, GOP turnout was abyssmal. If that pattern continues, and the indies defect to Obama rather than McCain, there could well be a major upset even on the GOP side. With that in mind, here are my predictions for NH.
GOP: I am going to postulate that the independents go for Obama 3-1, leaving only scraps for McCain, giving Romney the edge. McCain will probably still take second, and Thompson and Ron Paul will duke it out for the next tier. I think Ron Paul has a better advantage in NH than he did in Iowa so I will go out on a limb and say he edges out Fred. Huck will place far below, but still beat Rudy.
Democrats: Obama is the easy call here, followed by Clinton and then Edwards. Not much else to really say about that. Hillary's path to the nomination hinges on her taking all the Feb 5th states that she can. Any of those states where indies can vote in the primary will probably go to Obama. The closed primaries, she has a fighting chance and will focus her energy there. From there on out it will be a horse race.
For the Dems, conventional wisdom prior to Iowa was that if Indies turn out en masse, it favors Obama, whereas if Dems turned out en masse it would favor Hillary. Well, it seems both happened, and it all went Obama's way. The overall turnout was enormous, with a record youth vote, but Democrats accounted for 3 out of 4 voters overall.
In contrast, GOP turnout was abyssmal. If that pattern continues, and the indies defect to Obama rather than McCain, there could well be a major upset even on the GOP side. With that in mind, here are my predictions for NH.
GOP: I am going to postulate that the independents go for Obama 3-1, leaving only scraps for McCain, giving Romney the edge. McCain will probably still take second, and Thompson and Ron Paul will duke it out for the next tier. I think Ron Paul has a better advantage in NH than he did in Iowa so I will go out on a limb and say he edges out Fred. Huck will place far below, but still beat Rudy.
Democrats: Obama is the easy call here, followed by Clinton and then Edwards. Not much else to really say about that. Hillary's path to the nomination hinges on her taking all the Feb 5th states that she can. Any of those states where indies can vote in the primary will probably go to Obama. The closed primaries, she has a fighting chance and will focus her energy there. From there on out it will be a horse race.
Comments