Israeli Forces Cross Border Into Lebanon
From Reuters,
First and foremost, it almost goes without saying that I hope this conflict ends with as little bloodshed as possible and the Israeli soldiers who have been kidnapped are found alive and rescued. Now that I've said that, I don't expect that we will see a scenario such as that one play out.
Read on for more analysis...
If I may comment for just a moment on the internal politics of the situation: Ehud Olmert does not have the kind of military background that his predecessors had. Ariel Sharon, for better or for worse, was a military giant before he entered Israeli politics. Just as Richard Nixon, a fervent anti-communist, had to be the one to go to communist China, Ariel Sharon had to be the one to take the big steps towards Israeli withdrawal from some Palestinian-dominated territory. Anybody else who attempted such a thing would have been considered weak or worse.
Olmert is in a very difficult situation. If he doesn't respond to threats and violent acts with immediate and overwhelming force, he will be perceived as weak. This is all because he doesn't have the kind of military background as previous leaders. Ariel Sharon could afford not to overreact to the situation we have today with Hizbollah and Lebanon because no one would ever seriously question whether he had lost his toughness and his resolve.
I think this insecurity--which is not irrational, by the way, but rather very well-founded--is what has led to the conflict we are witnessing right now. Don't interpret this as meaning that I am blaming Olmert for responding to provocation, because that's not what I'm saying. I am saying, however, that he needs to respond based on his own domestic political situation, and that his enemies know that. It is possible to provoke Olmert from all sides and really put him into a bind where he finds himself fighting Palestinian terrorist groups, Lebanon, and Syria all at the same time. He can't back down from any fight, and it would be foolish to think his enemies don't know that.
MARJAYOUN, Lebanon (Reuters) - Hizbollah guerrillas captured two Israeli soldiers and killed up to seven Israelis in violence on either side of the Lebanese border on Wednesday, further inflaming Middle East tensions.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert described the Hizbollah attacks as an "act of war" by Lebanon and promised a "very painful and far-reaching" response.
Two Lebanese civilians were killed and five people wounded in retaliatory Israeli air strikes after Hizbollah announced it had captured the Israelis.
Israeli ground forces crossed into Lebanon to search for the captured soldiers, Israeli Army Radio said. Hizbollah and the Lebanese authorities said there was no large-scale incursion.
Israeli troops have not struck deep into Lebanon since they withdrew from a southern border strip in 2000 after waging an 18-year war of attrition with Hizbollah's Shi'ite fighters.
First and foremost, it almost goes without saying that I hope this conflict ends with as little bloodshed as possible and the Israeli soldiers who have been kidnapped are found alive and rescued. Now that I've said that, I don't expect that we will see a scenario such as that one play out.
Read on for more analysis...
If I may comment for just a moment on the internal politics of the situation: Ehud Olmert does not have the kind of military background that his predecessors had. Ariel Sharon, for better or for worse, was a military giant before he entered Israeli politics. Just as Richard Nixon, a fervent anti-communist, had to be the one to go to communist China, Ariel Sharon had to be the one to take the big steps towards Israeli withdrawal from some Palestinian-dominated territory. Anybody else who attempted such a thing would have been considered weak or worse.
Olmert is in a very difficult situation. If he doesn't respond to threats and violent acts with immediate and overwhelming force, he will be perceived as weak. This is all because he doesn't have the kind of military background as previous leaders. Ariel Sharon could afford not to overreact to the situation we have today with Hizbollah and Lebanon because no one would ever seriously question whether he had lost his toughness and his resolve.
I think this insecurity--which is not irrational, by the way, but rather very well-founded--is what has led to the conflict we are witnessing right now. Don't interpret this as meaning that I am blaming Olmert for responding to provocation, because that's not what I'm saying. I am saying, however, that he needs to respond based on his own domestic political situation, and that his enemies know that. It is possible to provoke Olmert from all sides and really put him into a bind where he finds himself fighting Palestinian terrorist groups, Lebanon, and Syria all at the same time. He can't back down from any fight, and it would be foolish to think his enemies don't know that.
Comments
What is not clear to me is what the political agenda is on the Palestinan side. It's not like any of the above will lead to a West Bank withdrawal.