Nation-Building >> The Cold Equations | return to front page

"America has two great dominant strands of political thought - conservatism, which, at its very best, draws lines that should not be crossed; and progressivism, which, at its very best, breaks down barriers that should never have been erected." -- Bill Clinton, Dedication of the Clinton Presidential Library, November 2004

Add to Google Reader or Homepage Subscribe in Bloglines Subscribe in NewsGator Online Add to netvibes

website stats

Previous Posts
Netflix, Inc.
ThinkGeek T-Shirts will make you cool!
illy coffee - 2 cans, 2 mugs for just $26.

Wednesday, November 03, 2004


The Cold Equations

posted by Aziz P. at Wednesday, November 03, 2004 permalink View blog reactions
The provisional ballots are unlikely to save Kerry. Kos's calculation assumes that there are 250,000 provos, of which 90% are valid, and of which 85% go to Kerry. These numbers are enormously over-optimistic.

I think a more justifiable, but still generous to Kerry, range would be 200,000 provos, with 75% for Kerry. Doing the math (using the latest data):

Kerry: 2659664 + (200000 * .75) = 2809664
Bush: 2796147 + (200000 * .25) = 2846147

difference: 36483

percentage: 100 * (2846147 - 2809664) / (2659664 + 2796147 + 200000) = .65%

As Kos notes, an automatic recount is triggered by a margin of 0.25%. That spread above exceeds that margin. Kos' calculation ignores the fact that provos that Kerry doesn't get are added to Bush's total.

Unlike many fire-breathers, I don't want Kerry to demand a recount. But then again, that's because I believe that the whole GOTV-reliant electoral strategy is fundamentally flawed, and as long as the D or the R parties pursue it, a divided nation we will remain.


Post a Comment


View blog top tags
The Assault on Reason

Obama 2008 - I want my country back

I want my country back - Obama 2008

About Nation-Building

Nation-Building was founded by Aziz Poonawalla in August 2002 under the name Dean Nation. Dean Nation was the very first weblog devoted to a presidential candidate, Howard Dean, and became the vanguard of the Dean netroot phenomenon, raising over $40,000 for the Dean campaign, pioneering the use of Meetup, and enjoying the attention of the campaign itself, with Joe Trippi a regular reader (and sometime commentor). Howard Dean himself even left a comment once. Dean Nation was a group weblog effort and counts among its alumni many of the progressive blogsphere's leading talent including Jerome Armstrong, Matthew Yglesias, and Ezra Klein. After the election in 2004, the blog refocused onto the theme of "purple politics", formally changing its name to Nation-Building in June 2006. The primary focus of the blog is on articulating purple-state policy at home and pragmatic liberal interventionism abroad.