The Cold Equations
The provisional ballots are unlikely to save Kerry. Kos's calculation assumes that there are 250,000 provos, of which 90% are valid, and of which 85% go to Kerry. These numbers are enormously over-optimistic.
I think a more justifiable, but still generous to Kerry, range would be 200,000 provos, with 75% for Kerry. Doing the math (using the latest data):
Kerry: 2659664 + (200000 * .75) = 2809664
Bush: 2796147 + (200000 * .25) = 2846147
difference: 36483
percentage: 100 * (2846147 - 2809664) / (2659664 + 2796147 + 200000) = .65%
As Kos notes, an automatic recount is triggered by a margin of 0.25%. That spread above exceeds that margin. Kos' calculation ignores the fact that provos that Kerry doesn't get are added to Bush's total.
Unlike many fire-breathers, I don't want Kerry to demand a recount. But then again, that's because I believe that the whole GOTV-reliant electoral strategy is fundamentally flawed, and as long as the D or the R parties pursue it, a divided nation we will remain.
I think a more justifiable, but still generous to Kerry, range would be 200,000 provos, with 75% for Kerry. Doing the math (using the latest data):
Kerry: 2659664 + (200000 * .75) = 2809664
Bush: 2796147 + (200000 * .25) = 2846147
difference: 36483
percentage: 100 * (2846147 - 2809664) / (2659664 + 2796147 + 200000) = .65%
As Kos notes, an automatic recount is triggered by a margin of 0.25%. That spread above exceeds that margin. Kos' calculation ignores the fact that provos that Kerry doesn't get are added to Bush's total.
Unlike many fire-breathers, I don't want Kerry to demand a recount. But then again, that's because I believe that the whole GOTV-reliant electoral strategy is fundamentally flawed, and as long as the D or the R parties pursue it, a divided nation we will remain.
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