Wisconsin is the key
via Dean Nation alumnus Jerome at DailyKos, is this prophetic article from June 2003 arguing that Wisconsin will be the clincher for the nomination:
Of course, the article was written long before Lieberman or Gephardt's withdrawal. Still, the facts of an open primary, no party registration, and a strong independent tradition make the state very competitive for Dean, despite poor poll numbers from UW (which admits to being unable to gauge the impact).
Likewise, a win in Wisconsin will be transformative. Winning Wisconsin means that electability is not an issue anymore - especially given WI's swing state status. That should help stem the tide of soft support from Dean to Kerry and make Dean much more competitive for Super Tuesday - where the grassroots support can mobilize.
Wisconsin is the lone primary on this Tuesday and, more important, the last big test going into Super Tuesday. The state has a very unpredictable electorate. Sure, there are the Madison liberals, but independents could mess with this primary big time. There's no party registration in the state, meaning the primary will be as open as they come.
[...]
But it's not just the independents that make this contest interesting; the Wisconsin electorate has a little bit to offer every major candidate in the field. There will be no excuse to skip -- there's no one with a regional advantage, although one could argue the winner of Iowa should have at least a tiny leg up. But regional candidates haven't succeeded in Wisconsin in the past, so what's to say a Gephardt couldn't walk in with a big advantage?
This will be the state that will either sink the front-runner or solidify him; there's no two ways about it. And winning Wisconsin, since it is a swing state for the general election, will trigger the media into declaring the winner the most electable Dem.
Of course, the article was written long before Lieberman or Gephardt's withdrawal. Still, the facts of an open primary, no party registration, and a strong independent tradition make the state very competitive for Dean, despite poor poll numbers from UW (which admits to being unable to gauge the impact).
Likewise, a win in Wisconsin will be transformative. Winning Wisconsin means that electability is not an issue anymore - especially given WI's swing state status. That should help stem the tide of soft support from Dean to Kerry and make Dean much more competitive for Super Tuesday - where the grassroots support can mobilize.
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