winning WA! recount NH?
interesting analysis that shows Dean lost by a much smaller margin to Kerry on hand-counted ballots, whereas Diebold machine-counted votes favored Kerry by an enormous margin. Calling for a recount seems potentially risky though.
In other news, several reports have suggested that Dean may be beating Kerry in WA state thus far - but the official counts still show Kerry in the lead (54% to 28%, with only 21% of precincts reporting). We are definitely getting delegates out of this one, though!
UPDATE: with 32% of the precincts reporting, Dean gains to 29% and Kerry slips to 50% ...
UPDATE 2: with 34% reporting, Dean slips back to 28%, Kerry falls still further to 44%, and Kucinich rises to 14%. It's clear that Kucinich's rise is at the expense of Kerry, not Dean. If Kucinich "spoils" it for Kerry, while Dean stays constant, there's a great chance Dean can eke out a win.
UPDATE 3: with 49% reporting, Kerry is back up to 48%, but Dean has also gained to 31%, and Kucinich recedes to 8%. This is a real heady race - it's clear that the numbers are volatile. Still, now that half the precincts are done reporting, it's harder for any single precinct to dramatically affect the numbers. The volatility should decrease unless there's a big pocket of Kucinich supporters out there ready to bolt Dean-wards.
In other news, several reports have suggested that Dean may be beating Kerry in WA state thus far - but the official counts still show Kerry in the lead (54% to 28%, with only 21% of precincts reporting). We are definitely getting delegates out of this one, though!
UPDATE: with 32% of the precincts reporting, Dean gains to 29% and Kerry slips to 50% ...
UPDATE 2: with 34% reporting, Dean slips back to 28%, Kerry falls still further to 44%, and Kucinich rises to 14%. It's clear that Kucinich's rise is at the expense of Kerry, not Dean. If Kucinich "spoils" it for Kerry, while Dean stays constant, there's a great chance Dean can eke out a win.
UPDATE 3: with 49% reporting, Kerry is back up to 48%, but Dean has also gained to 31%, and Kucinich recedes to 8%. This is a real heady race - it's clear that the numbers are volatile. Still, now that half the precincts are done reporting, it's harder for any single precinct to dramatically affect the numbers. The volatility should decrease unless there's a big pocket of Kucinich supporters out there ready to bolt Dean-wards.
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