Don't Overreact
I think it's worth a new post to say this. Don't overreact here. Gephardt was a surprise Iowa winner in 1988. Then he ran out of money, and the primaries continued. In 1992, Clinton lost both Iowa and New Hampshire. Electability was a key concern, and people feared he was unelectable due to the accusations of dodging the draft, marital infidelity, and whatever else was going on. The news here isn't good, but I stand by what I said below about Iowa having made this campaign stronger.
UPDATE: Just so that this sounds less like spin: The early numbers are very good for Kerry and Edwards and very bad for Dean and Gephardt. This post was in response to what seemed a sense of hopelessness around the comments on various sites. They seemed an over-reaction. I believe that 1996 and 2000 were rather boring primary cycles in which candidates locked up establishment support, money, and grassroots very early, and this year will be more like 1988 and 1992 in which things are more competitive. So while I am concerned, I see no reason whatsoever to give up.
UPDATE: Just so that this sounds less like spin: The early numbers are very good for Kerry and Edwards and very bad for Dean and Gephardt. This post was in response to what seemed a sense of hopelessness around the comments on various sites. They seemed an over-reaction. I believe that 1996 and 2000 were rather boring primary cycles in which candidates locked up establishment support, money, and grassroots very early, and this year will be more like 1988 and 1992 in which things are more competitive. So while I am concerned, I see no reason whatsoever to give up.
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