Be careful of what you wish for

Robert A. George, one of the thoughtful conservatives (as opposed to the default GOP cheerleaders) at National Review, is one of the few that understand that Dean is not to be underestimated - and that Bush is not infallible:

The key problem is that Bush's spending makes the traditional Republican charge of Democrats as tax-and-spenders that much more difficult. The current Dean stump speech accuses Bush of being a "borrow-and-spender" and points to the "$500 billion deficit" as the product of these policies. Will the American public be open to a debate on possible tax increases from a Democrat as a Republican incumbent promises to control spending in the future — after he's passed the biggest entitlement expansion in the last 40 years? The answer is not as automatic as one might think.

The conservatives quoted in the Post article aren't going to vote for a Democrat. However, in recent weeks, I've found myself conversing with other otherwise right-leaning types who admit they could at least consider voting for either a Democrat or a third-party candidate before automatically supporting Bush's reelection.


This is brutal honesty which the "Bring Dean on!" camp of the GOP true believers will not be able to swallow. It's fallacious to assume that the GOP policymakers believe the spin they marke to the base, and that Rove really believes that Dean is going to be a cakewalk. But the strategy of conservatives trying to paint Dean as McGovern in the minds of Democrats might well backfire - by painting Dean as McGovern in the eyes of Republicans. The same point has been made over at Kos:

Here's the question: is Rove cocky and foolish, or is this part of his strategy? (Ok, it's Rove, so its definitely part of his strategy. Is his strategy well-founded?)

Does the dismissal of Dean benefit the Democrats, by lowering expectations to the point that the GOP will be totally unprepared for the Might Of Trippi & DFA? Or is Rove's Inevitabilty trick gonna work twice in a row?


The answer is: BOTH. The challenge is to play down the threat to Bush for the conservative audience, and to play up the threat to the liberal and moderate one. The bottom line for us as Dean supporters is to guard against complacence, and draw inspiration, not apathy, from the successes of the past month.

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