Dean Leads in Some Unlikely Places...

A side dish of polling to go with your turkey ;-)

First, some very encouraging news from Florida, of all places...

Dean is Close 2nd to Lieberman in Latest Florida Poll

Far from his Northern base, Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean is surging in the Sunshine State, threatening to displace South Florida favorite Joe Lieberman.

(snip)

Only 6 percent of Democrats said they would choose Kerry if Florida's primary were held now...That put the Massachusetts senator far behind Lieberman, the Connecticut senator who gained popularity in South Florida's Jewish and Democratic strongholds when he was the vice presidential nominee in 2000. Lieberman led the poll with 21 percent support, just ahead of the 17 percent for former Vermont Gov. Dean.

The Lieberman and Dean numbers were within the 5 percentage point error margin for the portion of the poll that interviewed 379 Democrats likely to vote in the primary.

While the sample size is a bit on the smallish side and it's a new poll so there aren't any trends, it's still encouraging to read this good news. Note the very bad news for Kerry in this article, as well.

Not quite as surprising but nonetheless quite encouraging are the recent series of polls out of my homebase, Massachusetts, showing Dean tied or with a strong lead over Kerry in Kerry's homestate.

Boston Globe: Dean bid showing strength in Massachusetts

US Senator John F. Kerry is facing a serious challenge from Democratic rival Howard Dean in Massachusetts, according to a Boston Globe/WBZ-TV survey of likely voters in the state's presidential primary.

The poll shows Dean getting 27 percent of the 400 likely Democratic primary voters, with Kerry receiving 24 percent. The two are far ahead of seven other candidates, with retired Army General Wesley K. Clark running a distant third with 6 percent.

Because the poll's margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points, Kerry and Dean are in a statistical tie in the race for the state's March 2 presidential primary.

But that Kerry apparently cannot hold off Dean in his own home state is a reflection of the deep political problems faced by the senator, whose campaign for the Democratic nomination has been hit with internal turmoil and criticism that the candidate has failed to ignite any passion.

Boston Herald: Dean tops Kerry in Bay State

Sen. John F. Kerry is facing a backyard beating at the hands of presidential primary nemesis Howard Dean, losing his own state by a staggering 9 points in a new Boston Herald poll.

Dean, who already stole the primary leads from a faltering Kerry in New Hampshire and Iowa, would pummel the hometown senator 33 percent to 24 percent if voting were held today.

Worse for Kerry, Dean leads here by riding the longtime senator's supposed core base - liberals, Democrats and older voters.

The fact that he can come into Massachusetts, John Kerry's home state, where Democrats are so familiar with the senator, and still have a 9-point lead really speaks to the strength of the Dean campaign and his core messages, said Herald pollster R. Kelly Myers.

For those of us in Massachusetts who've been volunteering for Dean for close to a year, these polls were official confirmation of what we've all been sensing for some time: that Kerry's support in his homestate, even among Democratic Party insiders, is incredibly shallow and that Dean's support here is incredibly strong. For example, I have yet to see a Kerry bumper sticker in Boston. The only time I see them is in New Hampshire. Boston is like a sea of Dean cars, seriously. ;-)