Electoral College Favors Dean
The New Republic offers its take on Roll Call's recent analysis of Republican memo's indicating that the GOP is far more worried about Dean than they let on. Basically, the argument goes that Dean's personality and style is what drives many to his side, while his socially liberal/fiscally conservative credentials coupled with states rights platform on guns and civil unions may be enough to swing key states back to the Democratic column on election day. It's a compelling argument and one that has not received enough attention. Apparently that is beginning to change:
"One interesting point the pollsters bring up that we hadn't even considered is that Dean may actually be well-suited to pick up the marginal electoral-college states a Democrat needs to win the presidency. The article cites Nevada and West Virginia in particular--the former because Dean could focus his anti-Bush vitriol on the administration's plans to turn the state into a nuclear waste dump, and the latter because Dean's moderate position on gun control could bring blue-collar voters back into the Democratic fold. (Al Gore narrowly lost the traditionally Democratic state in 2000 thanks to defections among these voters.)
What's truly amazing is that Nevada and West Virginia are (theoretically) the only two states Bush carried in 2000 that Dean would need to carry in order to win the electoral college. Meanwhile, it doesn't seem like much of a stretch to think Dean would hold his own in the state's Gore won. After all, the winning margin in many of the state's Gore carried only narrowly--Oregon, Washington, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, even Florida--was depressed because of defections to Nader or broader liberal dissatisfaction with Gore. Dean's aggressive criticism of the president should only help him here."
"One interesting point the pollsters bring up that we hadn't even considered is that Dean may actually be well-suited to pick up the marginal electoral-college states a Democrat needs to win the presidency. The article cites Nevada and West Virginia in particular--the former because Dean could focus his anti-Bush vitriol on the administration's plans to turn the state into a nuclear waste dump, and the latter because Dean's moderate position on gun control could bring blue-collar voters back into the Democratic fold. (Al Gore narrowly lost the traditionally Democratic state in 2000 thanks to defections among these voters.)
What's truly amazing is that Nevada and West Virginia are (theoretically) the only two states Bush carried in 2000 that Dean would need to carry in order to win the electoral college. Meanwhile, it doesn't seem like much of a stretch to think Dean would hold his own in the state's Gore won. After all, the winning margin in many of the state's Gore carried only narrowly--Oregon, Washington, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, even Florida--was depressed because of defections to Nader or broader liberal dissatisfaction with Gore. Dean's aggressive criticism of the president should only help him here."
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