Wesley Clark
This is the follow-up to yesterday's post on the ramifications of a Biden candidacy. I've taken what's below from the middle of my post so that what's on here is Dean-centric. Enjoy.
Clark's likelihood of entering the race is inversely proportional to Dean's likelihood of winning it. Clark is looking at the same base, the same grassroots activists, and the same campaign as Dean - he needs people dissatisfied with Bush and with the "traditional" Democratic establishment. People who are loyal to Democratic politicians are going with Kerry, Gephardt, Lieberman, etc. People loyal to Democratic ideals and tired of our politicians are going with Dean. If Dean is looking weak as September rolls around (a situation that looks increasingly unlikely), Clark is more likely to get in. More of Dean's base will be nervous that they're backing the wrong horse and he has less of a chance of being picked as VP by Kerry or Gephardt. If Dean is strong, Clark can't get his base and is highly likely to be picked as VP, so why dirty himself and weaken his chances + run the risk of pissing Dean off?
A Clark candidacy would badly hurt Dean and Kerry, strengthen Gephardt, and create a 3 way race. Clark could run strong in the South - but he needs more of a message or platform before his appeal nationwide can be predicted. Dean has grassroots Clark needs and is the only other anti-war candidate, Clark is a viable anti-war candidate and takes Kerry's resume advantage away. So everyone's hurt and they stand a chance of killing each other and handing Gephardt the nomination - I just can't see Clark winning due to his disadvantages and late start. Clark would, however, be a good choice for Gephardt's VP slot.
Read the whole thing...
Clark's likelihood of entering the race is inversely proportional to Dean's likelihood of winning it. Clark is looking at the same base, the same grassroots activists, and the same campaign as Dean - he needs people dissatisfied with Bush and with the "traditional" Democratic establishment. People who are loyal to Democratic politicians are going with Kerry, Gephardt, Lieberman, etc. People loyal to Democratic ideals and tired of our politicians are going with Dean. If Dean is looking weak as September rolls around (a situation that looks increasingly unlikely), Clark is more likely to get in. More of Dean's base will be nervous that they're backing the wrong horse and he has less of a chance of being picked as VP by Kerry or Gephardt. If Dean is strong, Clark can't get his base and is highly likely to be picked as VP, so why dirty himself and weaken his chances + run the risk of pissing Dean off?
A Clark candidacy would badly hurt Dean and Kerry, strengthen Gephardt, and create a 3 way race. Clark could run strong in the South - but he needs more of a message or platform before his appeal nationwide can be predicted. Dean has grassroots Clark needs and is the only other anti-war candidate, Clark is a viable anti-war candidate and takes Kerry's resume advantage away. So everyone's hurt and they stand a chance of killing each other and handing Gephardt the nomination - I just can't see Clark winning due to his disadvantages and late start. Clark would, however, be a good choice for Gephardt's VP slot.
Read the whole thing...
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