Tuesday, July 08, 2003
Polling in NH http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/dem070703.pdf
UNH has a survey out from New Hampshire: No Clear Leader that Matt Singer posted a link to below, and here's a few comments on the poll:
I'm not sure why UNH decided to include HRC in their polling, but that both Dean and Kerry poll ahead of her is news. Some other notes from the poll. Kerry and Dean continue to trump all the other candidates with their favorability ranking. This is still very much a one-on-one contest, with Dean having the momentum, and Kerry holding onto the lead. Bob Graham has a very high unfavorable ranking for his low name id, higher than HRC, and only second to Sharpton in his net negative favorability ranking-- not good news for the electability claim. Clark and Biden both show about 50% name id, with neither of them showing anymore potential than Edwards, at this point (though Clark did hit 3% for the first time). Besides who wins, the second biggest story out of the NH primary will be who comes in third, and right now Lieberman probably would take the bronze.
Given that Clinton is included in the polling, it's hard to put a finger on whom exactly is ahead between Kerry and Dean, but I've found some clues that point toward a mixed bag of results.
If you look at page 5 of the polling, the cross-tabs show that Clinton polls 24% (Dean in second with 20%) of those aged 18-34. The trend among age is very similar for Clinton and Dean, with their stronger pull amongst the younger voters, and weaker among older voters. In contrast, Kerry's strength is the exact opposite. Kerry captures 36% of the over 65 group.
One other group that shows strength for Clinton are voters earning less than $30k, where HRC polls 34% of the group, Among this same group, Lieberman second at 21%, with Kerry and Dean showing only single-digit support.
What these groups of numbers show are where Dean would secure voters that lean toward Clinton (younger), and where the voters are that he needs to work on attracting-- lower wage earners (and those over 65 years of age if he wants to attract voters now supporting Kerry). Not surprisingly, these two groups are among the lowest in terms of the population found on the internet. They either don't have access, or don't use the internet at all. Everything we are doing here is basically non-existent to this group of voters, but they are critical to reach if Dean is to win.
The use of a 1-800 number will help, and so will things such as lit. drops and putting up Dean campaign tables at events,and of course, mailings & TV advertising (which is why fundraising is so important). No one ever proposed that Dean would win the nomination through the internet, but it does give Dean the netroot tools to raise the funds, allow supporters to organize locally, and for the campaign to then mobilize the grassroot supporters to reach targeted groups of voters, in order to win the primaries and caucuses.
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Nation-Building was founded by Aziz Poonawalla in August 2002 under the name Dean Nation. Dean Nation was the very first weblog devoted to a presidential candidate, Howard Dean, and became the vanguard of the Dean netroot phenomenon, raising over $40,000 for the Dean campaign, pioneering the use of Meetup, and enjoying the attention of the campaign itself, with Joe Trippi a regular reader (and sometime commentor). Howard Dean himself even left a comment once. Dean Nation was a group weblog effort and counts among its alumni many of the progressive blogsphere's leading talent including Jerome Armstrong, Matthew Yglesias, and Ezra Klein. After the election in 2004, the blog refocused onto the theme of "purple politics", formally changing its name to Nation-Building in June 2006. The primary focus of the blog is on articulating purple-state policy at home and pragmatic liberal interventionism abroad.