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"America has two great dominant strands of political thought - conservatism, which, at its very best, draws lines that should not be crossed; and progressivism, which, at its very best, breaks down barriers that should never have been erected." -- Bill Clinton, Dedication of the Clinton Presidential Library, November 2004

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Saturday, July 12, 2003

 

Newsweek poll: Bush falls, Dean rises http://www.msnbc.com/news/938073.asp?cp1=1

posted by Aziz P. at Saturday, July 12, 2003 permalink View blog reactions
I mused earlier if the Bush Administration had jumped the shark. Newsweek's new poll suggests cause for optimism on that score:

Forty-five percent of Americans say the Bush Administration misinterpreted intelligence reports that proved Iraq was hiding banned chemical or biological weapons before the war, says a new Newsweek poll. And while a significantly smaller number—38 percent—believe the administration purposely misled the public, President Bush’s approval ratings have declined significantly in recent months, the poll shows.

WHILE 55 PERCENT of those polled say they approve of the way Bush is handling his job as president, his ratings have fallen 6 points from the end of May, 16 points from mid-April when Baghdad first fell to American soldiers, and nearly 30 points from the weeks immediately following the September 11 attacks.


38 percent may be significantly different from 45 percent, but it is significant by itself. And as Bush's facade of competence frays, Dean continues his ascent:

In January 2003, when registered Democrats-and those whose beliefs fall more along Democratic party lines-were asked who they would like to see nominated as the Democratic presidential candidate, 22 percent opted for Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, 14 percent for North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, and 13 percent each for former House Democratic leader Dick Gephardt and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry. Florida Sen. Bob Graham, Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and Reverend Al Sharpton, who were also on the list, each received 6 percent or less. Numbers for former Illinois Sen. Carol Mosely Braun and Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich—who have also entered the 2004 presidential race—were not available in January. In the current poll, Lieberman’s ratings have fallen to 13 percent and he now lags behind Gephardt by 1 point. Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who barely made a blip on the poll in January, is now in third place, with 12 percent of those polled backing his nomination.


Summary: From January to July, Lieberman declined 9% (22 -> 13). Dean has risen from virtually zero to 12%. A long way to go but so much grouund covered already!

My earlier estimate of 100,000 Meetup subscribers by July may have been optimistic, but not that much so. We currently stand at 60760 signups. If growth is merely linear, we still break 75,000 by august!


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About Nation-Building

Nation-Building was founded by Aziz Poonawalla in August 2002 under the name Dean Nation. Dean Nation was the very first weblog devoted to a presidential candidate, Howard Dean, and became the vanguard of the Dean netroot phenomenon, raising over $40,000 for the Dean campaign, pioneering the use of Meetup, and enjoying the attention of the campaign itself, with Joe Trippi a regular reader (and sometime commentor). Howard Dean himself even left a comment once. Dean Nation was a group weblog effort and counts among its alumni many of the progressive blogsphere's leading talent including Jerome Armstrong, Matthew Yglesias, and Ezra Klein. After the election in 2004, the blog refocused onto the theme of "purple politics", formally changing its name to Nation-Building in June 2006. The primary focus of the blog is on articulating purple-state policy at home and pragmatic liberal interventionism abroad.