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Thursday, June 26, 2003

 

How Dean could win - and lose http://www.dailykos.com/archives/003180.html#003180

posted by Aziz P. at Thursday, June 26, 2003 permalink View blog reactions
DailyKos has been running a series of analyses on the major candidates and how they could win the Democratic nomination. Today he has posted his analysis of how Dean could win, and it's notable because he also throws in an alternate scenario of how Dean could lose. This is an essential post and comparing the two scenarios only underlies how important the fund-raising effort will be.

Kos goes into a chronological detailed list of each state's primary dates. For brevoty, I'll just excerpt the summaries. Here is Scenario 1, a Dean win:


Dean wins the nomination if he takes California, Connecticut, Maryland, Mass, Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Hawaii and Washington. He could lose Georgia, North Dakota, and Texas, and still sew up the nomination. The "moderate's" task will be to steal at least two of those states.

Bottom line: My scenario is fairly CW, not too controversial. It assumes that the NH loser in the Dean/Kerry battle will be forced to drop out because of waning media attention. Remember, the media has every interest in culling the field as quickly as possible in order to save money. It's expensive to cover so many candidates.


Scenario 2 is where Dean loses New Hampshire, and cannot raise funds. In that case the campaign remains competitive but operating a a sever disadvantage. It would all boil down to Super Tuesday:

Super Tuesday is a money day, and it's hard to see how Dean could pull it off. His candidacy would probably die in a flood of Kerry money.

But here's the kicker -- as Kerry and Dean split the lefty vote, the "moderate" candidate has an undivided share of the centrist vote. He wins the election right here and now.


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About Nation-Building

Nation-Building was founded by Aziz Poonawalla in August 2002 under the name Dean Nation. Dean Nation was the very first weblog devoted to a presidential candidate, Howard Dean, and became the vanguard of the Dean netroot phenomenon, raising over $40,000 for the Dean campaign, pioneering the use of Meetup, and enjoying the attention of the campaign itself, with Joe Trippi a regular reader (and sometime commentor). Howard Dean himself even left a comment once. Dean Nation was a group weblog effort and counts among its alumni many of the progressive blogsphere's leading talent including Jerome Armstrong, Matthew Yglesias, and Ezra Klein. After the election in 2004, the blog refocused onto the theme of "purple politics", formally changing its name to Nation-Building in June 2006. The primary focus of the blog is on articulating purple-state policy at home and pragmatic liberal interventionism abroad.