Meetup prediction: 100,000 by July
The number of unique page views on the Dean Blog has passed 150,000 - averaging about 1500 visitors a day, of which 75% arrive via Google and Yahoo searches. Reflect on that for a moment - this is significant because it suggests that we are still in the early growth phase of Dean's netroots support. And the netroots support drives the grassroots support - which also shows the same trends, as seen by the history of Meetup numbers recorded on the DeanBlog over the past few months:
Today, May 25th, we have 26055 members signed up. These are just the exact reported totals - after combing through the blog archives I found these estimated reports. These numbers are less accurate, because the numbers were quoted as "almost above" or "nearly at", and the dates are just the timestamp of the post which may not reflect the date that the estimate was made.
These numbers are plotted below - there are two curves, representing the precise and rough estimates. It's clear from the plot that the growth has been very healthy, but it's also also clear that it's the "foot" of an exponential, ie the initial near-linear regime. A linear fit to the data gives a slope of 240 supporters a day, with a R2 of .9723. So it's clear that we still have most of our growth ahead.
The DLC and others may well argue that the growth will stay linear. I think that's a pessimistic (and agenda-driven) opinion - after all, politics is subject to the "network effect" and here we have the marriage of politics and the Internet, where the network effect was practically invented. It's impossible to try and fit a meaningful exponential to the curve at this point, but I think that we may well break 100,000 Meetup supporters within two months. Stay tuned :)
Of course, it's just rubbing salt to mention Edwards and Kerry meetup numbers. I can't resist, see the chart at below (data is much sketchier). Astonishingly, it seems that Kerry and Edwards actually lost supporters in late March/early April[2]. Also, Joe had a hysterical post on 4/7 that pokes fun at the Favorite Sons running against Dean - by comparing meetup numbers in their home towns. And note that on the Edwards Meetup page, one of items for discussion is, "Why Edwards and not Dean in 2004?" - note Kerry is conspicuously absent from Edwards supporters' agenda.
But wait! This is all just Internet foolery! the critics argue. Why do Meetup numbers really matter? Four words: The Million-Dollar Meetup Challenge. Add a penny for the Internet!
[1]Note that the january estimate is arbutrary, based on a comment by Joe Trippi that "we had 432 supporters in January". I just took the midpoint of the month.
[2]The numbers come from reports published here on the DeanBlog. There may have been an error in reporting, but it's also possible that both candidates sufferred from defections to Dean.
| Date | Supporters |
|---|---|
| February 2nd | 501 |
| February 20th | 1590 |
| February 25th | 2327 |
| March 5th | 4297 |
| March 30th | 10010 |
| March 31st | 10434 |
| April 8th | 13808 |
Today, May 25th, we have 26055 members signed up. These are just the exact reported totals - after combing through the blog archives I found these estimated reports. These numbers are less accurate, because the numbers were quoted as "almost above" or "nearly at", and the dates are just the timestamp of the post which may not reflect the date that the estimate was made.
| Date | Supporters |
|---|---|
| 1/15 | 432[1] |
| 9-Feb | 900 |
| 28-Feb | 2600 |
| 10-Mar | 4200 |
| 11-Mar | 5000 |
| 25-Mar | 8000 |
| 28-Mar | 9000 |
| 30-Mar | 10000 |
| 2-Apr | 12000 |
| 8-Apr | 13000 |
| 13-Apr | 15000 |
| 4-May | 20000 |
| 7-May | 22000 |
These numbers are plotted below - there are two curves, representing the precise and rough estimates. It's clear from the plot that the growth has been very healthy, but it's also also clear that it's the "foot" of an exponential, ie the initial near-linear regime. A linear fit to the data gives a slope of 240 supporters a day, with a R2 of .9723. So it's clear that we still have most of our growth ahead.
The DLC and others may well argue that the growth will stay linear. I think that's a pessimistic (and agenda-driven) opinion - after all, politics is subject to the "network effect" and here we have the marriage of politics and the Internet, where the network effect was practically invented. It's impossible to try and fit a meaningful exponential to the curve at this point, but I think that we may well break 100,000 Meetup supporters within two months. Stay tuned :)
Of course, it's just rubbing salt to mention Edwards and Kerry meetup numbers. I can't resist, see the chart at below (data is much sketchier). Astonishingly, it seems that Kerry and Edwards actually lost supporters in late March/early April[2]. Also, Joe had a hysterical post on 4/7 that pokes fun at the Favorite Sons running against Dean - by comparing meetup numbers in their home towns. And note that on the Edwards Meetup page, one of items for discussion is, "Why Edwards and not Dean in 2004?" - note Kerry is conspicuously absent from Edwards supporters' agenda.
But wait! This is all just Internet foolery! the critics argue. Why do Meetup numbers really matter? Four words: The Million-Dollar Meetup Challenge. Add a penny for the Internet!
[1]Note that the january estimate is arbutrary, based on a comment by Joe Trippi that "we had 432 supporters in January". I just took the midpoint of the month.
[2]The numbers come from reports published here on the DeanBlog. There may have been an error in reporting, but it's also possible that both candidates sufferred from defections to Dean.
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