Dean slips slightly in NH
The latest ARG poll has Dean losing three points, from 22 to 19, while Kerry gained one, from 23 to 24. Kos has some more analysis and a summary of the numbers. Are there any NH DeanBlog readers who can weigh in with their perspectives from the field? How can we leverage Meetup in New England to try and help Dean's numbers rise? Ideas, people!
UPDATE: Of course, the variation is within the margin of error. As Joe Trippi wrote in Kos' comments:
I agree, but my concern is that the statistical significance is not as relevant as the perceived significance. Look at the Aware/Favorable numbers from the poll (click here). For April, Kerry has 87%/65%, whereas Dean has 75%/43%. It's not just name recognition that Dean lags behind in, it's also the Favorable perspective. Given that Dean ranks statistically equal to Kerry despite having only 2/3 the Favorable rating, it's clear that Dean has a massive potential that is going unrealized. If Dean's Aware/Favorable numbers can be increased, that will have a direct impact on his poll rating - whereas Kerry is practically maxed out.
UPDATE: Of course, the variation is within the margin of error. As Joe Trippi wrote in Kos' comments:
Every poll that has come out in NH over the past three months has shown remarkable consistency within the margin of error. In ARG John Kerry has been at 23 to 24% for 3 months -- In the Franklin Pierce poll he was at 21% -- even with different methodology those numbers are virtually the same and within the margin of error. Same is true for the entire field including Dean. Dean's numbers in both polls over the same period are 19%, 22% (ARG) 21% (Franklin Pierce) again the same number -- it does not matter what order you put them in -- they are still the same number -- all are within a 3 or 4 point margin of error.
The truth is the pre-war and post-start of war environments have not changed the fundamental structure of the race in NH. Also it should be pointed out that Kerry's favorables fell 4 to 5 points in this same poll -- while Howard Dean's favorables increased 3 points. This fact again points to numbers that fall within the margin of error.
I agree, but my concern is that the statistical significance is not as relevant as the perceived significance. Look at the Aware/Favorable numbers from the poll (click here). For April, Kerry has 87%/65%, whereas Dean has 75%/43%. It's not just name recognition that Dean lags behind in, it's also the Favorable perspective. Given that Dean ranks statistically equal to Kerry despite having only 2/3 the Favorable rating, it's clear that Dean has a massive potential that is going unrealized. If Dean's Aware/Favorable numbers can be increased, that will have a direct impact on his poll rating - whereas Kerry is practically maxed out.
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