Saturday, January 31, 2004
Trippi Still Working After NH Concession Speech
What a warrior.
It's a Ground War http://dean.postersforamerica.com
The bat is still swinging, but the campaign doesn't have the money for an air war in the next seven states. To pick up delegates, we need a ground war from the grassroots. The grassroots built this campaign, and they can do it again, this weekend - help show that you still support Howard Dean. Pick a pre-designed sign or easily create your own:
One-on-One
What makes Roy Neel so confident Howard Dean can come back?
First, there is us. We may not be able to win a primary by ourselves, but we can certainly keep Dr. Dean from meeting Howard's End. With $1.4 million on the bat, with thousands of activists in every February 3 state, we may not win any but we won't be shut out of delegates.
Second, there is the math facing General Clark, and Senator Edwards. They're from the South, they have to do well there. If the Massachusetts Senator smokes them in places like Oklahoma, Arizona and South Carolina, their funds are going to dry up faster than water on a hot griddle. At that point, he expects, the networks will point at Sharpton, Lieberman and Kucinich, then point to the door. (If Clark or Edwards pulls a surprise Tuesday, by the way, good for our side, because it slows Kerry's mometum.)
Third, of course, Neel is aiming for the small table. That's where the late debates are often held, around a small table. Even if there's no table, the rules are adjusted, so candidates can no longer rely on their stump speeches and have to think on their feet.
This is where Howard Dean will shine through. Consider how well he did on Hardball after the Thursday debate? Fifteen minutes of fast back-and-forth on Iraq, he talked as rapidly as the hosts, and he finished with his very best point -- the enemy of my enemy may not be my friend, he's my enemy. Devastating.
Kerry can't survive in that kind of hothouse. Dean will tear him apart. Neel is depending on that, and I think he's right.
First, there is us. We may not be able to win a primary by ourselves, but we can certainly keep Dr. Dean from meeting Howard's End. With $1.4 million on the bat, with thousands of activists in every February 3 state, we may not win any but we won't be shut out of delegates.
Second, there is the math facing General Clark, and Senator Edwards. They're from the South, they have to do well there. If the Massachusetts Senator smokes them in places like Oklahoma, Arizona and South Carolina, their funds are going to dry up faster than water on a hot griddle. At that point, he expects, the networks will point at Sharpton, Lieberman and Kucinich, then point to the door. (If Clark or Edwards pulls a surprise Tuesday, by the way, good for our side, because it slows Kerry's mometum.)
Third, of course, Neel is aiming for the small table. That's where the late debates are often held, around a small table. Even if there's no table, the rules are adjusted, so candidates can no longer rely on their stump speeches and have to think on their feet.
This is where Howard Dean will shine through. Consider how well he did on Hardball after the Thursday debate? Fifteen minutes of fast back-and-forth on Iraq, he talked as rapidly as the hosts, and he finished with his very best point -- the enemy of my enemy may not be my friend, he's my enemy. Devastating.
Kerry can't survive in that kind of hothouse. Dean will tear him apart. Neel is depending on that, and I think he's right.
Friday, January 30, 2004
Roy's Mis-speak http://blog.deanforamerica.com/archives/003471.html
I get what Roy Neel is saying.
We don't have to win Tuesday. We don't even have to win the following Saturday.
If we just hang around, picking up delegates where we can, and saving all that money coming in off the bat, we can get Kerry all alone, starting around Wisconsin, and most delegates will still be unchosen.
In other words, we're to become the "anti-Kerry."
Fine. Good. Wonderful. But does he have to put it this way:
When he could just as easily have put it this way:
The first is the language of a Washington insider, writing for the punditocracy. The second is the language of a general directing his troops toward the next big battle and forward toward ultimate victory. The first could have gone off in an e-mail to the Washington press corps. We need something more.
With all the pundits now writing us off, what we need from our general most right now is a pep talk. It doesn't have to sound like Joe Trippi. We know Joe Trippi. We love Joe Trippi. Roy Neel is no Joe Trippi.
Sigh. I guess I just miss ol' Joe.
We don't have to win Tuesday. We don't even have to win the following Saturday.
If we just hang around, picking up delegates where we can, and saving all that money coming in off the bat, we can get Kerry all alone, starting around Wisconsin, and most delegates will still be unchosen.
In other words, we're to become the "anti-Kerry."
Fine. Good. Wonderful. But does he have to put it this way:
we have elected to not buy television advertisements in February 3 states, but instead direct our resources toward the February 7 and 8 contests in Michigan, Washington and Maine. We may not win any February 3 state, but even third place finishes will allow us to move forward, continue to amass delegates in Virginia and Tennessee on February 10, and then strongly challenge Kerry in Wisconsin.
When he could just as easily have put it this way:
We have decided to fully empower our grassroots supporters through February 17. We believe you will keep us competitive while other candidates falter.
This has always been your campaign and, for the next true weeks, that will literally be the case. We believe you can shock the world, that with your hard work we can turn this race around, and that we can dominate the delegate selection process from Wisconsin onward.
You have the tools, you have the enthusiasm, you have the will to take this party back and take this country back.
Let's go get 'em!
The first is the language of a Washington insider, writing for the punditocracy. The second is the language of a general directing his troops toward the next big battle and forward toward ultimate victory. The first could have gone off in an e-mail to the Washington press corps. We need something more.
With all the pundits now writing us off, what we need from our general most right now is a pep talk. It doesn't have to sound like Joe Trippi. We know Joe Trippi. We love Joe Trippi. Roy Neel is no Joe Trippi.
Sigh. I guess I just miss ol' Joe.
The Misunderstanding of Judy Dean http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4066284/
For those who haven't seen this, Gersh Kuntzman over at Newsweek/MSNBC writes a very complimentary article on Judith Steinberg Dean. It's just one more reason I have so much respect for both Howard and Judith Steinberg Dean. When I read this, I thought "finally, somebody gets it." This isn't some sort of slick media play to attract points. Howard and Judy are real people. Vermonters know this and understand who they are - I think many of the people who have become involved in this campaign appreciate a "real person" running for president. Howard and Judy Dean are certainly real people - good and bad together. Capable of doing great things, and capable of making mistakes and moving on.
I'm tired of demanding "the right look" for president. I want a President and First Lady with substance and self-awareness. I thought this article just reflected so well on Judy - and it says something positive about Howard's character that he picked such a woman to be his partner.
"In what is supposedly an enlightened age for women, we in the media should be celebrating Dean's independence, not questioning it. Shouldn't it be refreshing to meet a woman who'd prefer to be a doctor than gazing longingly from the edge of the stage as her husband delivers the seventh identical stump speech of the day? (And how come all of my supposedly gifted media colleagues missed the irony of an independent, modern woman, who nonetheless has one foot in that bygone age of doctors who make house calls? That alone should have won her points.)"
In The Interview, Mrs. Dean again showed us her humility, her professionalism, her dedication, her...what's that word?...her integrity (I almost forgot the word because it's such a rare sight on television). Every time Dean opened her mouth, I found myself hoping that my daughter grows up to be Judith Steinberg Dean.
Yet the more she spoke, the more "sins" she rang up.
"I don't watch TV that much," she said. Diane was visibly upset.
"I am kind of private...and I have a medical practice which I love," she said later. "And I think it's really important for me, and Howard knows it's important to me. But, I also love Howard, and I think he would make a terrific president...And, I think if I can help him, I will. And that doesn't mean he's going to disrupt my life, disrupt my patients, my son, but if he calls on a Saturday, and I'm not on call that weekend, I'll be out there Sunday." Imagine that, a husband and wife who support each other's careers. Diane was skeptical."
The interview goes on like this. At any rate, thought I'd share it with all of you... and three cheers for Judy!
I'm tired of demanding "the right look" for president. I want a President and First Lady with substance and self-awareness. I thought this article just reflected so well on Judy - and it says something positive about Howard's character that he picked such a woman to be his partner.
"In what is supposedly an enlightened age for women, we in the media should be celebrating Dean's independence, not questioning it. Shouldn't it be refreshing to meet a woman who'd prefer to be a doctor than gazing longingly from the edge of the stage as her husband delivers the seventh identical stump speech of the day? (And how come all of my supposedly gifted media colleagues missed the irony of an independent, modern woman, who nonetheless has one foot in that bygone age of doctors who make house calls? That alone should have won her points.)"
In The Interview, Mrs. Dean again showed us her humility, her professionalism, her dedication, her...what's that word?...her integrity (I almost forgot the word because it's such a rare sight on television). Every time Dean opened her mouth, I found myself hoping that my daughter grows up to be Judith Steinberg Dean.
Yet the more she spoke, the more "sins" she rang up.
"I don't watch TV that much," she said. Diane was visibly upset.
"I am kind of private...and I have a medical practice which I love," she said later. "And I think it's really important for me, and Howard knows it's important to me. But, I also love Howard, and I think he would make a terrific president...And, I think if I can help him, I will. And that doesn't mean he's going to disrupt my life, disrupt my patients, my son, but if he calls on a Saturday, and I'm not on call that weekend, I'll be out there Sunday." Imagine that, a husband and wife who support each other's careers. Diane was skeptical."
The interview goes on like this. At any rate, thought I'd share it with all of you... and three cheers for Judy!
The Biggest Bush Fraud Of All
Time out for an issue vital to the 2004 Electoral Finals, namely the economy.
The Bush Administration claims everything is lovely. They base this on two quarters’ GDP growth, which itself is based heavily on rising stock prices.
Prices are up from a year ago, as much as 20%. But the fact that is being hidden is that the value of the dollar is also down, by an equal (sometimes greater) amount.
This does not just mean a European vacation is out of the question. It also means that foreign investments in our economy are, despite the rising stock market, actually falling in value. Japanese, Chinese, Arab, and European investors are all losing money on their dollar investments.
Now consider that both our trade and budget deficits are largely funded by foreigners. China’s purchases of dollars are the biggest “seller financing” deal of all time. (We get stuff, they get dollars, they don’t change those dollars into Chinese currency.) It won’t continue if the value of those dollars keeps declining.
Consider too that for generations the dollar has been a “reserve currency.” Oil is priced in dollars, and our government pays for the national debt in dollars. This is an advantage enjoyed by no one else. Every economic collapse in the developing world, whether in Asia, Africa or Argentina, is tied to their currency’s fall in value against the dollar. Their loans were in dollars, their currency fell against the dollar, so no matter how much they paid back, they owed more and more. No other nation, other than ours, can actually finance its debts by just printing more money.
That is about to change. Oil exporters won’t take dollars forever if those dollars turn to water in their hands. Bankers won’t lend us dollars forever if those dollars turn to water, either.
At some point, maybe this year, Russia or Saudi Arabia could start demanding oil payments in something more stable, say, Euros. As the Euro becomes a “reserve currency” our economic power wanes permanently. So does our economic independence. Our best companies, even our land, can all be had on the cheap.
A falling dollar fuels higher interest rates, higher prices, and falling real incomes, even if things seem OK in the short term. George W. Bush did this deliberately. A falling dollar makes our exports cheaper, and imports more expensive. It’s short-term gain for long-term pain. He hopes to keep the scam going through, say, November.
There is only one Democrat who has called Bush and Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan on this fraud. That Democrat is Howard Dean.
The question for America today is this? Are you going to let Bush get away with this fraud as well?
No? So what are you doing TODAY to make sure he doesn’t?
The Bush Administration claims everything is lovely. They base this on two quarters’ GDP growth, which itself is based heavily on rising stock prices.
Prices are up from a year ago, as much as 20%. But the fact that is being hidden is that the value of the dollar is also down, by an equal (sometimes greater) amount.
This does not just mean a European vacation is out of the question. It also means that foreign investments in our economy are, despite the rising stock market, actually falling in value. Japanese, Chinese, Arab, and European investors are all losing money on their dollar investments.
Now consider that both our trade and budget deficits are largely funded by foreigners. China’s purchases of dollars are the biggest “seller financing” deal of all time. (We get stuff, they get dollars, they don’t change those dollars into Chinese currency.) It won’t continue if the value of those dollars keeps declining.
Consider too that for generations the dollar has been a “reserve currency.” Oil is priced in dollars, and our government pays for the national debt in dollars. This is an advantage enjoyed by no one else. Every economic collapse in the developing world, whether in Asia, Africa or Argentina, is tied to their currency’s fall in value against the dollar. Their loans were in dollars, their currency fell against the dollar, so no matter how much they paid back, they owed more and more. No other nation, other than ours, can actually finance its debts by just printing more money.
That is about to change. Oil exporters won’t take dollars forever if those dollars turn to water in their hands. Bankers won’t lend us dollars forever if those dollars turn to water, either.
At some point, maybe this year, Russia or Saudi Arabia could start demanding oil payments in something more stable, say, Euros. As the Euro becomes a “reserve currency” our economic power wanes permanently. So does our economic independence. Our best companies, even our land, can all be had on the cheap.
A falling dollar fuels higher interest rates, higher prices, and falling real incomes, even if things seem OK in the short term. George W. Bush did this deliberately. A falling dollar makes our exports cheaper, and imports more expensive. It’s short-term gain for long-term pain. He hopes to keep the scam going through, say, November.
There is only one Democrat who has called Bush and Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan on this fraud. That Democrat is Howard Dean.
The question for America today is this? Are you going to let Bush get away with this fraud as well?
No? So what are you doing TODAY to make sure he doesn’t?
Diane Sawyer Gets Religion http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/news/012904_nw_dean_scream_abcnews.html
A quick post -- courtesy of John and Tom on the Zonkboard -- about Diane Sawyer's recent (yesterday) review of the media's treatment of the "I Have a Scream" speech.
In short, Diane gets many network bigwigs to admit that they blew it way out of proportion and didn't put the speech in context -- i.e. Dean had to shout to be heard over the roar of 3000+ supporters. A fact that many of us who were there, including many reporters, knew all along.
A rare case indeed to have the mainstream media admit they made a big blunder. Perhaps we should write this date on our calendars...
Read the story here; watch the segment here.
In short, Diane gets many network bigwigs to admit that they blew it way out of proportion and didn't put the speech in context -- i.e. Dean had to shout to be heard over the roar of 3000+ supporters. A fact that many of us who were there, including many reporters, knew all along.
A rare case indeed to have the mainstream media admit they made a big blunder. Perhaps we should write this date on our calendars...
Read the story here; watch the segment here.
February 3 Is Up To Us
I wish Roy Neel had said this more explicitly. But the message seems clear to me nonetheless, and it should be clear to you.
The Dean campaign is going to put its ad money into the February 7 states with the most delegates. February 3 belongs to the grassroots.
I know we "failed" in Iowa, and in New Hampshire. But I have a theory on that.
We were too thick on the ground. We tried too hard. We put too many chips on "red" and, when we didn't win outright, we looked like losers.
Not just Dean. But Dean Nation.
Well this weekend is our chance for redemption. If you live in Missouri, Arizona, New Mexico, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Delaware, or North Dakota, we are all depending on you this weekend.
The Web site has the tools. Voting has begun in most of those states. You can be bringing people to the polls NOW. You can be distributing literature, you can be launching phone trees, you can be e-mailing links to things like Common Sense
You can even, if you choose, add your own negative talking points. It's not being done by Dean for America. It's up to you.
If the grassroots can turn out a better-than-expected showing, if they can win only one or two of these states with no help from Burlington, then the story of February 3 will be about our power, and how Kerry failed.
Get to work, people. You have four days to turn America around.
The Dean campaign is going to put its ad money into the February 7 states with the most delegates. February 3 belongs to the grassroots.
I know we "failed" in Iowa, and in New Hampshire. But I have a theory on that.
We were too thick on the ground. We tried too hard. We put too many chips on "red" and, when we didn't win outright, we looked like losers.
Not just Dean. But Dean Nation.
Well this weekend is our chance for redemption. If you live in Missouri, Arizona, New Mexico, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Delaware, or North Dakota, we are all depending on you this weekend.
The Web site has the tools. Voting has begun in most of those states. You can be bringing people to the polls NOW. You can be distributing literature, you can be launching phone trees, you can be e-mailing links to things like Common Sense
You can even, if you choose, add your own negative talking points. It's not being done by Dean for America. It's up to you.
If the grassroots can turn out a better-than-expected showing, if they can win only one or two of these states with no help from Burlington, then the story of February 3 will be about our power, and how Kerry failed.
Get to work, people. You have four days to turn America around.
Daily Review
Transcript: Democratic Candidates Debate in South Carolina
Kerry not unstoppable, analysts say
The Dead Center
Gwen Ifill speaks with former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean
Howard Dean is visiting Michigan
Democrats vow to roll back Bush tax cuts
Kerry not unstoppable, analysts say
The Dead Center
Gwen Ifill speaks with former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean
Howard Dean is visiting Michigan
Democrats vow to roll back Bush tax cuts
Face Facts
Let us face some facts.
1). This race is not over.
2). Even if Dean loses the nod, our movement is not over.
3). If indeed Dean loses the nod, we, WE, must keep this movement alive.
4). If Kerry gets the nod, his first test of leadership is to bring us in. I predict he might fail -- but if that happens (and I think we still could win -- and will, I pray) I hope he is successful. However, I doubt his leadership. Despite his Vietnam record, this man is a whiny coward (in my view) and that concerns me -- greatly. Much.
5). If, somehow, we do not get the nod (and we may not) I beg of thee -- we must, at all costs, keep this movement alive. We ARE the...
Fiscally Responsible Progressive Wing of the Democratic Party
And yes, Kerry-Heinz, I'll consider leaving ya'll behind -- yes, an unswaying stalwart Dem like me....will do nothing more than vote for you -- you want us Dean folks to lift a finger for you? Overture, overture, again......make it good.
Overture, and sing, sing, sing. A promise or two would help.
Finally, speaking of "electability" -- Dems are having some suicidal thoughts, I guess. Dean, the Leftish Reagan Wild Card, is the ONLY one who could win (except maybe Edwards).
We must fight ever and harder and more relentlessly than ever.
Do you wanna volunteer for Kerry?
Exactly. The time is now, do what you can -- this could, be, perhaps, the only moment in our lives to Take Back America!
What can, what will, you do?
As I've stated in other posts on different topics:
NOW, FOLKS: IT-IS-TIME
We can win this, if you, YOU! -- will do all YOU can do.
1). This race is not over.
2). Even if Dean loses the nod, our movement is not over.
3). If indeed Dean loses the nod, we, WE, must keep this movement alive.
4). If Kerry gets the nod, his first test of leadership is to bring us in. I predict he might fail -- but if that happens (and I think we still could win -- and will, I pray) I hope he is successful. However, I doubt his leadership. Despite his Vietnam record, this man is a whiny coward (in my view) and that concerns me -- greatly. Much.
5). If, somehow, we do not get the nod (and we may not) I beg of thee -- we must, at all costs, keep this movement alive. We ARE the...
Fiscally Responsible Progressive Wing of the Democratic Party
And yes, Kerry-Heinz, I'll consider leaving ya'll behind -- yes, an unswaying stalwart Dem like me....will do nothing more than vote for you -- you want us Dean folks to lift a finger for you? Overture, overture, again......make it good.
Overture, and sing, sing, sing. A promise or two would help.
Finally, speaking of "electability" -- Dems are having some suicidal thoughts, I guess. Dean, the Leftish Reagan Wild Card, is the ONLY one who could win (except maybe Edwards).
We must fight ever and harder and more relentlessly than ever.
Do you wanna volunteer for Kerry?
Exactly. The time is now, do what you can -- this could, be, perhaps, the only moment in our lives to Take Back America!
What can, what will, you do?
As I've stated in other posts on different topics:
NOW, FOLKS: IT-IS-TIME
We can win this, if you, YOU! -- will do all YOU can do.
Thursday, January 29, 2004
Trippi Interview http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3910275/
Joe Trippi will be interviewed by Deborah Norville tonight at 9 pm EST on MSNBC.
UPDATE (Matt): Trippi will also be on Hardball tomorrow night. It should be noted in the Governor's post on the O-Blog that he hoped Trippi will later decide to return to the campaign as a strategic advisor.
UPDATE (Matt): Elegant, classy, honest, all around wonderful. Trippi says, "I love the grassroots," he still called the movement "we," he was clearly emotional about leaving but not at all bitter. He still says he firmly believes Dean will win and that this campaign is the nation's "last chance" to get things right. I remember the nights in the early campaign when I would get personal e-mails from Joe. I was amazed how someone in his position would actually respond to my individual thoughts. He impressed me so much then; he continues to impress me now.
UPDATE (Matt): Trippi will also be on Hardball tomorrow night. It should be noted in the Governor's post on the O-Blog that he hoped Trippi will later decide to return to the campaign as a strategic advisor.
UPDATE (Matt): Elegant, classy, honest, all around wonderful. Trippi says, "I love the grassroots," he still called the movement "we," he was clearly emotional about leaving but not at all bitter. He still says he firmly believes Dean will win and that this campaign is the nation's "last chance" to get things right. I remember the nights in the early campaign when I would get personal e-mails from Joe. I was amazed how someone in his position would actually respond to my individual thoughts. He impressed me so much then; he continues to impress me now.
Open Thread: SC Debate
Go nuts...
Here's hoping for a turnaround...
Grassroots Reacts to Changes @ DFA http://www.here-now.org/shows/2004/01/20040129_2.asp
Just in case folks missed it, DN's own Anna Brosovic, along with Colorado Deaner Tony Thompson, appeared on WBUR Radio's "Here & Now" earlier today. WBUR is the flagship NPR news station in Boston.
Here's the link. (Click on the LISTEN button -- segment begins about 4:30 minutes in).
Way to get media in Kerryland, guys -- and excellent job!
Here's the link. (Click on the LISTEN button -- segment begins about 4:30 minutes in).
Way to get media in Kerryland, guys -- and excellent job!
media visibility crusade - on the cheap
Here is how Dean can immediately get exposure in the Feb 3rd states without expensive ad buys:
This should keep his visibility high in the Feb 3 round and sustain momentum into Feb 7th. After Feb 3rd, though, he needs to spend all his time in the Feb 7th states to be on the ground making his case in all the local media (including making a direct pitch to the various newspaper editorial boards asking for their endorsement).
On Feb 4th, Dean needs to attend a meetup in Ann Arbor. Make it the biggest meetup ever - let's shatter the old New York record. Hey Michigan for dean, are you listening? Bombard Burlington with invites now, you guys! Send two people to drive to campaign HQ and camp out waiting for Dean to invite him in person!
After Feb 7th, he needs to maintain his visibility:
what else? Remember he has to be on the ground between Feb 3rd and 7th in Michigan and Wisconsin. IMHO it's a waste of his time to go stumping on foot before Feb 3rd, anywhere, because voter memory is short and voter fatigue will be high. If he maintains the media visibility campaign as suggested above then he can swoop in to the Feb 7th states and capitalize on the momentum. And that leaves the time before Feb 3rd to do the other things suggested above that are more unorthodox.
And note how the laundry list above relies heavily on contacts and endorsers and netroots supporters. That is by design. More suggestions along those lines are needed.
UPDATE: added some more bullet items. Keep the ideas flowing in comments!
- get on local talk radio. His Hannity appearance was excellent, and I heard he appeared on Hannity's TV show with Colmes last night to follow up. Deliberately target conservative media - that makes Dean look unafraid to challenge the right wing and also gets him broader access. Plus what other candidate is sticking it to the wingnuts? Certainly not Mr. Front Runner.
- Target national daytime television. Someone suggested Oprah (with both Howard and Judy!), other good avenues are Rosie O'Donnell and the Wayne Brady show. Lots of undecided voters are captive audiences at home during the day, and an informal apearance can give him a chance to make an appeal based on his record of accomplishment. It's those ordinary people watching TV at home that disproportionately are feeling the pain of the Bush economy and are wondering what these Democrats are doing for them.
- Stump in South Carolina with Jesse Jackson Jr and with Al Gore. Spend a whole day there talking to local church communities. Attend a service in Sunday and give out a yell for God.
- Target Hispanic media like Unavision - there must be daytime talk shows on the Hispanic networks where Dean can appear. Is Dean fluent in Spanish? If so, hold the entire interview in that language. If not, ask someone from Latinos for Dean to appear with him on the show.
- Get on late-night television. Dean should do at two of the following shows: Saturday Night Live, Late Show with Conan O'Brien, Letterman, Leno. Avoid cable talk shows since it's a more limited market (though do take up Chris Matthews on his open invitation to Dean for HardBall)
- Run grassroots-created ads on basic cable channels - USA Network and TNT for example are cheaper to buy ads on than primetime television, and they reach as many viewers. Launch a new bat dedicated to funding this effort. Use the best ideas from Project Deanlight and Switch2Dean in their entirety without any edits or changes - just dump them on those markets.
This should keep his visibility high in the Feb 3 round and sustain momentum into Feb 7th. After Feb 3rd, though, he needs to spend all his time in the Feb 7th states to be on the ground making his case in all the local media (including making a direct pitch to the various newspaper editorial boards asking for their endorsement).
On Feb 4th, Dean needs to attend a meetup in Ann Arbor. Make it the biggest meetup ever - let's shatter the old New York record. Hey Michigan for dean, are you listening? Bombard Burlington with invites now, you guys! Send two people to drive to campaign HQ and camp out waiting for Dean to invite him in person!
After Feb 7th, he needs to maintain his visibility:
- Appear on The West Wing on NBC by having Martin Sheen throw his weight around.
- Blog interviews. Dean needs to conduct a telephone interview with Daily Kos, Liberal Oasis, Atrios, and Blogging of the President. Dean also needs to take the time to personally answer the Dean Nation Interview Questions.
- Work together with MoveOn.org to utilize the best ideas of some of the ad winners from their recent Bush in 30 Seconds contest. Gore can help make a case for this and Rob Reiner can edit the films, along with recruiting the actual producers of the home-grown submitted films themselves. Put Heath Eiden and Karl Frisch in charge!
- More late-night television - finish off the ones he didn't get to before Feb 3rd.
what else? Remember he has to be on the ground between Feb 3rd and 7th in Michigan and Wisconsin. IMHO it's a waste of his time to go stumping on foot before Feb 3rd, anywhere, because voter memory is short and voter fatigue will be high. If he maintains the media visibility campaign as suggested above then he can swoop in to the Feb 7th states and capitalize on the momentum. And that leaves the time before Feb 3rd to do the other things suggested above that are more unorthodox.
And note how the laundry list above relies heavily on contacts and endorsers and netroots supporters. That is by design. More suggestions along those lines are needed.
UPDATE: added some more bullet items. Keep the ideas flowing in comments!
get Jesse Jackson and Al Gore to South Carolina with Dean
We need to be visible in South Carolina - and Gore and Jackson need to pull their weight. We don't need to win SC, but we MUST show up. Dean is the oinly candidate with a credible claim to appeal to the black vote, but repudiating SC will send the wrong symbolic message. Discuss.
UPDATE: and of course, get Bill Bradley out there in Michigan! Where are the endorsers?!
UPDATE: and of course, get Bill Bradley out there in Michigan! Where are the endorsers?!
General McClellan
A reporter called me to ask about Trippi. It’s part of the “picking of the bones” process.
While we were talking an analogy occurred to me, from the first Civil War. (I credit Vietnam as the second.) It came in historian Shelby Foote’s praise of George McClellan, the Union General fired in 1862. “He really built that Army,” Foote said, and much of what that Army did afterward was a tribute to McClellan.
No analogy is perfect. Trippi combined much of McClellan’s organizational brilliance with the imperfections of generals who succeeded him, like Ambrose Burnside and Joe Hooker. Trippi fought, hard, but the costs exceeded results in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Dean lacks the luxury of the years Lincoln spent in finding Grant. He also needs someone with Lee’s tactical brilliance – Grant really won by grinding the opponent down through superior forces.
And what of Roy Neel? I know him best from my work on the technology beat, where he ran the US Telephone Association during the boom. Yes, he’s an insider, but we need one now. He’ll be the first to tell you he ain’t Robert E. Lee.
But this is not a time for fighting. This is a time to make a case. And the case is there to be made. John Kerry was Michael Dukakis’ Lieutenant Governor, he is Teddy Kennedy’s junior Senator, he has never run anything bigger than a Senate office, he’s a defensive politician at a time that calls for offense. He is yesterday’s man. The last really courageous thing he did was throw away his medals at a VVAW rally. The definition of insanity is to repeatedly do the same thing and expect a different result. Kerry is the same thing.
Right now Democrats need to play offense, not defense. They need an executive, not a legislator. They need someone new, not someone old, borrowed or blue. When it comes to true electability and the personal qualities the nation needs there is just no comparison. Dean was making this case last week in New Hampshire. Neel can press it.
Most of us, meanwhile, are clear on who and what we’re working for. We’re working on making Howard Dean our President, for to take this country back from the idiots now in charge of it. It’s the Union, not the General, who matters to us foot soldiers.
Your orders, General Neel?
Where we stand http://www.notgeniuses.com/archives/001618.html
Go read this (lengthy email) from a Dean supporter, to a Dean supporter, that bluntly and frankly discusses where we stand. It makes a rational and principled case for why we need to continue and persevere, without any rose-colored Kool Aid drinking whatsoever. Read it in full.
NYT on Trippi departure http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/29/politics/campaign/29DEAN.html?ex=1390712400&en=1661d9184fa00c75&ei=5007&partner=USERLAND
This is the definitive article so far on the Trippi departure, including some hints that the shakeup wasn't as smooth as it appeared beneath the surface. I'm really just posting it for completeness, but I've decided to focus forward from here.
UPDATE: well, I guess I should state my opinion on the matter. I agree with the assessment that Trippi is a brilliant tactician - but a terrible strategist. (definitions here and here). Trppi recognized the potential of the netroots, and his contribution was to let it breathe freely and grow on its own. But he never really tapped into it for ideas. The O-blog contributes nothing to strategy, unlike here at Dean Nation where all we talk about is strategy. But the only idea that they ever ran with was embracing Meetup after we promoted it. And even that embrace ultimately fizzled down to just crowing about the number registered; ask yourself - why wasn't Dean at the Iowa or NH meetup before the primaries?
If the campaign was an internet startup, then Trippi was the brilliant CEO who founded the company. But the campaign has grown far beyond that stage, and we need someone with experience on the grown-up, experienced side of the fence. I'm very pleased at the choice of Neel and I think the timing was overdue.
UPDATE: well, I guess I should state my opinion on the matter. I agree with the assessment that Trippi is a brilliant tactician - but a terrible strategist. (definitions here and here). Trppi recognized the potential of the netroots, and his contribution was to let it breathe freely and grow on its own. But he never really tapped into it for ideas. The O-blog contributes nothing to strategy, unlike here at Dean Nation where all we talk about is strategy. But the only idea that they ever ran with was embracing Meetup after we promoted it. And even that embrace ultimately fizzled down to just crowing about the number registered; ask yourself - why wasn't Dean at the Iowa or NH meetup before the primaries?
If the campaign was an internet startup, then Trippi was the brilliant CEO who founded the company. But the campaign has grown far beyond that stage, and we need someone with experience on the grown-up, experienced side of the fence. I'm very pleased at the choice of Neel and I think the timing was overdue.
Dean's Money Advantage Dwindles http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A58369-2004Jan28.html?nav=hptop_ts
The money situation is indeed tight. Still no confirmation of the $5m rumor, but it is clear that the campaign overspent in Iowa and New Hampshire. Given that we are entering a media-centered phase of the campaign, this is a bad thing. This WaPo article sheds a lot of information on how the fiscal issue affects the primary strategy for Feb 3rd and 7th:
Rivals including front-runner John F. Kerry are buying TV ads in South Carolina and other states holding primaries or caucuses Tuesday, but the former Vermont governor has chosen to forgo further advertising in this round, focusing instead on the Feb. 7 caucuses in Michigan and Washington state, campaign officials said. The decision marks a notable shift in fortunes for an innovative candidate who revolutionized fundraising via the Internet and led all Democrats in 2003 by collecting nearly $41 million.
"Clearly his decision to spend heavily in New Hampshire was at the expense of not spending in Arizona, New Mexico and South Carolina," said Evan Tracey of TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks media expenditures. "You are essentially leaving the paid media field to your opponents."
[...]
Dean, according to campaign aides, has calculated that he can remain credible by picking up enough votes to win some delegates in the Feb. 3 states, even without renewed advertising or a first-place finish.
Dean expects to run strongly in Michigan and Washington, a Dean aide said. What's more, in contrast to primary contests that require heavy spending on TV ads, caucuses involve more ground-level work, such as identifying supporters and getting them to caucus sites. Much of this work can be performed by volunteers, enabling a candidate to preserve cash.
Dean must win some contests in the next two weeks "or he'll have trouble raising money in the future," said Steve Weissman, associate director of the Campaign Finance Institute, a nonpartisan group based in Washington.
[...]
Kerry, the winner in Iowa and New Hampshire, has bought TV time in all seven Feb. 3 states. He also is enjoying the wave of free news coverage that accompanies front-runner status.
"I don't think everybody has the capacity to fight in every state," said Dean campaign chair Steve Grossman. "We are going to use our resources wisely." Dean, he said, "must win a state somewhere" by Feb. 7.
media navel-gazing http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A58426-2004Jan28_2.html
The media discovers it has the power to affect people's opinions. In other news, Diane Sawyer followed up on her "Dean aren't you really a raging lunatic? Judy, Isn't Dean a manic psycho?" interview by conducting an investigation into the Dean Rebel Yell coverage. She concludes that the coverage was unfair. I'm sure the New Hampshire voters are paying attention.
These attacks made Dean stronger. I don't hold a grudge in that sense - and I want Kerry to undergo the same trial by fire so he too becomes stronger. I only object to the media's sudden interest in meta-analysis. Drop the pretense, guys, and go for your narratives of the hour. We'll cope... and win.
These attacks made Dean stronger. I don't hold a grudge in that sense - and I want Kerry to undergo the same trial by fire so he too becomes stronger. I only object to the media's sudden interest in meta-analysis. Drop the pretense, guys, and go for your narratives of the hour. We'll cope... and win.
voters are rational actors
As I posted yesterday, it's tempting to take shots at Kerry. But drawing all the contrasts in the world between Kerry's legislative record and Dean's executive one wont change the simple fact that Kerry won Iowa and NH fair and square. Telling Democrats who have chosen Kerry that they are fools, or dittoheads is not going to help our cause.
Worse, it might damage it. The last thing we need is to re-entrench the perception of Dean as attracting idoelogical crazies and cultists who sneer down their noses at the average Joe. I'm strictly a "People are rational actors" guy.
Lets focus on telling the campaign what they should do right to draw people, not telling people what they are doing wrong to get them to switch. There are a lot of other oters out there who are uncommitted who are more fertile ground for Dean's ideas than the soft support that switched to Kerry.
Forget Kerry. Forget Trippi. Focus on Dean, and how to get this campaign back on message so it's the same one that all of reading this blog were drawn to last year.
Worse, it might damage it. The last thing we need is to re-entrench the perception of Dean as attracting idoelogical crazies and cultists who sneer down their noses at the average Joe. I'm strictly a "People are rational actors" guy.
Lets focus on telling the campaign what they should do right to draw people, not telling people what they are doing wrong to get them to switch. There are a lot of other oters out there who are uncommitted who are more fertile ground for Dean's ideas than the soft support that switched to Kerry.
Forget Kerry. Forget Trippi. Focus on Dean, and how to get this campaign back on message so it's the same one that all of reading this blog were drawn to last year.
open thread
decompress!
Wednesday, January 28, 2004
TMS Continues Ad Effort http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4089404/
MSNBC: "The ad team of McMahon and Mark Squier will remain on the campaign, but they have been told to build a broader ad team that includes creative input from Hollywood and New York specialists to produce better spots, a senior official said on condition of anonymity."
I'm not sure this is a good idea. Thoughts?
I'm not sure this is a good idea. Thoughts?
ABC News: Dean Machine Shake-Up http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/Politics/WorldNewsTonight/Dean_Campaign_Changes_040128-1.html
ABC News has an interesting story on the Trippi removal. Selections:
In an emotional meeting with members of the Burlington, Vt.-based staff this afternoon, Trippi thanked them for their hard work and vowed to continue to fight for Dean's candidacy.
Dean was in the room and acknowledged Trippi but the two did not shake hands, according to a staff member who was present.
...
Trippi ruled the campaign's organization with an iron fist, hiring political and field staffers — many of them quite young — who were loyal to him. In the process, he clashed with members of the Vermont guard loyal to Dean, like Kate O'Connor, Dean's longtime aide, and Bob Rogan, the campaign's deputy chief of staff.
...
Dean was said by several sources who are close to him to have been very upset by what happened in Iowa, and blamed Trippi's staff, in part, for being disorganized and for running poor-quality television advertisements.
Dean and Trippi also had disagreements over spending. Dean is very tight with his budgets and would often veto ideas Trippi proposed.
The relationship between Dean and Trippi has been somewhat strained in the intervening week, according to sources loyal to both Trippi and Dean.
Dean limited Trippi's role in New Hampshire, told him to return to Burlington, stay off television, and the candidate essentially transferred the campaign's executive authority to his New Hampshire state director, Karen Hicks.
...
From Dean for America...
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
January 28, 2004
Statements by Governor Howard Dean and Joe Trippi
BURLINGTON--Dean for America released the following statements tonight:
Democratic presidential candidate Governor Howard Dean, M.D., issued the following statement:
"I am deeply grateful to Joe Trippi, who has decided to leave the campaign. Joe has made enormous contributions not just to our campaign but to American politics -- revolutionizing the way in which people are brought into the democratic process and helping hundreds of thousands of people to believe in political change again.
"I am pleased to announce that Roy Neel will be relocating to Burlington to assume the position of Chief Executive Officer of the campaign effective immediately. Roy brings enormous experience both in management and national politics. He will be an invaluable resource to our campaign.
"Last night the people of New Hampshire reaffirmed that their strong support for change and for a campaign based on standing up for what is right and delivering results not rhetoric.
"This campaign is a marathon not a sprint. I am committed to carrying our campaign through the coming weeks to primaries and caucuses all across the country. We will continue to offer the Democratic Party a candidacy based on courage and conviction and a campaign based on hope, not fear.
"This campaign is about all of us. I am grateful for what we have done together so far but our work is far from done. Now we must redouble our efforts, not simply to win the nomination but to change America."
* * *
Dean for America Campaign Manager Joe Trippi released the following statement:
"Dear Friends,
"The Governor has asked Roy Neel to come in as CEO of the campaign, and I have resigned as campaign manager.
"I've always believed that the most important thing was to change our country and our politics.
"I'm proud of all of you and the work we have done together. I may be out of the campaign but I’m not out of the fight.
"Don't give up -- stay with Howard Dean's cause to change America.
"Thank you.
"Joe Trippi"
-- 30 --
Shakeup http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040128/D80C37DG1.html
MSNBC is reporting that campaign manager Joe Trippi has been reassigned. Gore's Roy Neel to take over campaign.
Developing story... Click link above for initial story. Thanks to Mike on the zonk board for the link.
UPDATE (Aziz): another link just posted with a lot more information. Here's info on Neel:
Neel, Gore's former senatorial chief of staff, served as chief executive of the U.S. Telecom Association in Washington before working on Gore's 2000 presidential campaign. Neel was named to head Gore's transition team in anticipation of the former vice president winning the White House.
sources say that Dean asked Trippi to stay on the payroll, but Trippi decided to leave. "I may be out of the campaign, but I'm not out of the fight," Trippi was quoted as saying.
UPDATE (MATT B): Here is the O-Blog posting on Neel from 1/7/2004.
audio: Dean on Sean Hannity show (1/28/04) http://abcrad.wmod.llnwd.net/a49/external/0102cABAAHQAAAAcDle6yKhvE1c0LnEJnNwFajD8QD92LOnSD/hannity/dean012704.wma
I have to say, that Dean's apearance on Hannity last night (after Kucinich, who also went on TV later that evening) was fantastic. Hannity endorsed Dean, claiming he'd be defeated against Bush, and Dean used the Reagan analogy, which was a brilliant counterstroke. Dean managed to meet Hannity on almost every point with a better answer straight from his stump speeches.
The man was made for talk radio. He needs to get out there NOW. We need him on the Chris Baker show here in Houston. weneed him on YOUR local talk radio, also - chime in and list your local conservative radio hosts wo fantasize that the are the next Hannity or Limbaugh. Let's get Dean on the shows!
The man was made for talk radio. He needs to get out there NOW. We need him on the Chris Baker show here in Houston. weneed him on YOUR local talk radio, also - chime in and list your local conservative radio hosts wo fantasize that the are the next Hannity or Limbaugh. Let's get Dean on the shows!
Dean on the Sean Hannity show
Should Dean compete for Feb 3? http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Politics/ap20040128_1138.html
This ABC article details the difference of opinion in the campaign today about strategy. Dean wants to carry on to the Feb 3 states, and his staff is against the idea, preferring to lie low (as Chris Suellentrop speculates in Slate). What do you think? open thread ...
Gored http://www.cjr.org/blog/archives/cat_distortion.asp#000063
via Campaign Desk:
Most of the questions asked in the official exit poll for the New Hampshire primary today are routine: Are you liberal or conservative, black or white, male or female, and, by the way, how did you vote?
But then out of nowhere comes this sucker punch: "Regardless of how you voted today, do you think Howard Dean has the temperament to serve effectively as president?" No other questions about specific candidates were asked.
[...]
Reading from an official statement, a harried spokesperson for the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, Fox and the AP that administered the poll, told Campaign Desk: "Dean's temperament has been much discussed throughout the campaign. He fell from a significant lead in New Hampshire. Did questions about his temperament after the Iowa speech contribute to that? The exit poll would be remiss if it didn't try to find out."
The spokeswoman stressed that because this was an exit poll, it wouldn't affect New Hampshire's results. She's wrong; the very existence of the question, first reported this afternoon by Howard Kurtz at WashingtonPost.com, could well sway late voters.
More important, what about South Carolinians, Missourians, Arizonans, and all the rest who have yet to vote? Even if few startled New Hampshire voters answer "no" to that loaded question, it seems certain to make news -- and to supply ammunition to Dean opponents.
Trippi in trouble? http://www.sevendaysvt.com/insidetrack/
An article from Seven Days VT has some pretty astonishing gossip from inside sources in Dean's campaign:
Frankly, the few ads I have seen were terrible. And I have been long incomfortable with the seeming conflict of interest in having TMS do the ads when the T was also the campaign manager. How could an objective decision get made in that scenario about the quality of the ads? This is all the more critical since we have entered the media-centric phase of the campaign.
But should Joe take the blame for the Iowa and NH losses? I don't know. Joe deserves credit for the Internet aspect of things but we all know that the campaign needs to grow beyond that - while keeping its character intact. In Iowa, the campaign did grow out into the real world, but it became something unrecognizable in the process.
Another issue that needs to be addressed is the burn rate. Yes, Dean has raised more money than anyone else - but how has it been spent? On orange hats? Trippi's strategy was always to concentrate on Iowa and NH for the win and coast to victory. And I did get the feeling that fundraising was indeed being taken almost for granted (and this is the real reason why the mailing list memberships have hit a plateau.)
Campaign staff shakeups are common to all the other campaigns - most notably front-runner Kerry. I don't know enough to have an opinion on whether Joe deserves the axe for Iowa and NH. If anything, I'm biased against it out of sheer personality admiration. But winning is more important. What do you think?
Seven Days has learned that the disaster in Hawkeye Country last week caused a major realignment of Dean for America’s campaign hierarchy. Sources tell Seven Days that Campaign Manager Joe Trippi, the colorful Internet whiz who led the longshot Vermonter’s meteoric rise, has had his own wings plucked.
Dr. Dean, sources say, has taken control of the campaign checkbook from the Trippster and handed it to Deputy Campaign Manager Bob Rogan.
Rogan once served on Dean’s gubernatorial staff, before leaving for a management job at Vermont’s largest electric utility. He came back last year for the presidential bid. Now he and longtime Dean aide Kate O’Connor are steering the Dean campaign warship. There are clear indications that if Dean limps on after New Hampshire, Joltin’ Joe Trippi will be gone.
So, too, will Trippi’s Washington, D.C., consulting firm Trippi, McMahon & Squier. Steve McMahon has been producing Howard Dean for Governor TV commercials for a decade. The spots he did for Ho-Ho in Iowa are cited by grumbling Dean supporters as a factor in Dean’s poor showing there.
Frankly, the few ads I have seen were terrible. And I have been long incomfortable with the seeming conflict of interest in having TMS do the ads when the T was also the campaign manager. How could an objective decision get made in that scenario about the quality of the ads? This is all the more critical since we have entered the media-centric phase of the campaign.
But should Joe take the blame for the Iowa and NH losses? I don't know. Joe deserves credit for the Internet aspect of things but we all know that the campaign needs to grow beyond that - while keeping its character intact. In Iowa, the campaign did grow out into the real world, but it became something unrecognizable in the process.
Another issue that needs to be addressed is the burn rate. Yes, Dean has raised more money than anyone else - but how has it been spent? On orange hats? Trippi's strategy was always to concentrate on Iowa and NH for the win and coast to victory. And I did get the feeling that fundraising was indeed being taken almost for granted (and this is the real reason why the mailing list memberships have hit a plateau.)
Campaign staff shakeups are common to all the other campaigns - most notably front-runner Kerry. I don't know enough to have an opinion on whether Joe deserves the axe for Iowa and NH. If anything, I'm biased against it out of sheer personality admiration. But winning is more important. What do you think?
forget Kerry - it's domestic policy, stupid
There's all sorts of juicy things you could sink your teeth into about Kerry - like this telling anecdote from Chris Suellentrop in Slate:
But the simple fact is that the race between Dean and Kerry is about Dean. We need to draw people to Dean first. Most of Kerry's support is relatively new, and part of the reason Dean lost support in Iowa was because he went negative. Let Clark (and Lehane) focus their fire on Kerry - but and emphasise that Dean not only knows what the X means, but he's got Jesse Jackson Jr. to vouch for it.
All those endorsements are garbage unless they are leveraged. We need simple commercials - Jesse Jackson Jr. Talking frankly about Dean and race, Gore talking frankly about Dean and Iraq - and Dean himself talking about what he has to offer, his success with Dr. Dynasaur and Success by Six. It's the domestic polcy, stupid.
Forget about Bush Lied and 16 words. Focus instead on the plight of our veterans who have to buy their own plane tickets home on leave and how their benefits are being drastically cut.
Forget about the federal deficit and talk about the raised property taxes which negate the "middle class tax cut" (say it with the sneer quotes). Mention payroll tax cuts.
Dean often talks about how Americans feel left out of the political process. He needs to start showing those people how their concerns are being addressed. It's not about Iraq or deficits or any other long-range national issues. It's about the here and now. It's about consistent job loss. It;s about corporate tax breaks as a reward for moving workers overseas. It's not about the big picture, it's about the facts on the ground.
And the voters will make the distinction between Dean and Kerry on their own, inexorably, inevitably.
Is the campaign listening anymore? I don't know. Joe Trippi hasn't left a comment on Dean Nation in many long months. The official blog remains an echo chamber of motivational speeches and dry logistical coordinating info. I don't know if they even remember we are here. But we are here, and we need to make noise, and fight to get our campaign back on track.
In Manchester, Kerry gave a touching speech about the importance of veterans and of "keeping faith with those who wore the uniform." As soon as it was over, a woman stood up and said, I'm not a veteran. What are you going to do for the average person? At a firehouse in Hampton yesterday, a man told Kerry that he thinks it's unfair that people say a New Englander can't connect with people from varying backgrounds. And to prove that you can do it, he says, explain the importance of the icon on my hat. Kerry is mystified. "The Latin? The Ten?" he asks. Malcolm X, the man explains.
But the simple fact is that the race between Dean and Kerry is about Dean. We need to draw people to Dean first. Most of Kerry's support is relatively new, and part of the reason Dean lost support in Iowa was because he went negative. Let Clark (and Lehane) focus their fire on Kerry - but and emphasise that Dean not only knows what the X means, but he's got Jesse Jackson Jr. to vouch for it.
All those endorsements are garbage unless they are leveraged. We need simple commercials - Jesse Jackson Jr. Talking frankly about Dean and race, Gore talking frankly about Dean and Iraq - and Dean himself talking about what he has to offer, his success with Dr. Dynasaur and Success by Six. It's the domestic polcy, stupid.
Forget about Bush Lied and 16 words. Focus instead on the plight of our veterans who have to buy their own plane tickets home on leave and how their benefits are being drastically cut.
Forget about the federal deficit and talk about the raised property taxes which negate the "middle class tax cut" (say it with the sneer quotes). Mention payroll tax cuts.
Dean often talks about how Americans feel left out of the political process. He needs to start showing those people how their concerns are being addressed. It's not about Iraq or deficits or any other long-range national issues. It's about the here and now. It's about consistent job loss. It;s about corporate tax breaks as a reward for moving workers overseas. It's not about the big picture, it's about the facts on the ground.
And the voters will make the distinction between Dean and Kerry on their own, inexorably, inevitably.
Is the campaign listening anymore? I don't know. Joe Trippi hasn't left a comment on Dean Nation in many long months. The official blog remains an echo chamber of motivational speeches and dry logistical coordinating info. I don't know if they even remember we are here. But we are here, and we need to make noise, and fight to get our campaign back on track.
tv ads open thread
let this one be just for your TV ideas...
Winning On Electability
Here is what killed us last night.
New Hampshire Democrats bought the idea that the Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party is, by definition, its more liberal wing, thus its least-electable wing.
Kerry beat us among moderates, and he pounded us on electability.
Over the next week we're going to get a lot of help in taking him down. The media is going to provide much of it. Kerry was Michael Dukakis' Lieutenant Governor. His voting record is more liberal than Teddy Kennedy's. He has never held executive office. Etc. etc. etc.
Wesley Clark and John Edwards are going to help us in this. They are going to direct all their fire on Kerry. This is a good thing.
Governor Dean's ads, meanwhile, are going to start sounding more like the speeches he gave last week in New Hampshire. Overtly or not, they will make the points I made here last night. We are going to run to Kerry's right, on Dean's record, and take back the moderates.
It then becomes crucial that the anti-Kerry vote not go to Clark or Edwards, and that we take the "electability" issue back as well.
That will be even easier.
Start with extravagant praise. John Edwards is a great lawyer, what we wouldn't give to see him as Attorney General instead of John Ashcroft. Wesley Clark is a great military thinker, what we wouldn't give to see him as Defense Secretary instead of Donald Rumsfeld. And Joe Lieberman, wouldn't he make a great Chief Justice when William Rehnquist retires?
But none of these men, as worthy as they are, has any more chance of being elected President in November than Al Sharpton or Dennis Kucinich.
At some point this spring, they will all run through the $45 million they are allowed to spend under the campaign laws. At that point, they will go under virtual house arrest. They will not be able to buy ads, they will not be able to travel, they won't even be able to pay their Internet bills.
That is the law. Bill Clinton used it to hammer Bob Dole in 1996. George W. Bush used it to hammer Al Gore in 2000.
Today Bush has 200 million dollars ready to shock and awe us with the largest ad campaign in political history. He will spend that money turning Edwards into a Breck Girl, Clark into Beetle Bailey, or Lieberman into the devil himself.
The only way Democrats can compete this summer is for 2 million people, or more, to match Bush's $200 million with $200 million of their own. Our campaign can do that. Theirs can't. We would be proud to serve with any one of these worthy gentlemen, but the law as written, the law we will follow through this November, gives them no hope of victory, none.
Run to the right, become the only hope, and the nomination is ours.
Then comes the hard part.
New Hampshire Democrats bought the idea that the Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party is, by definition, its more liberal wing, thus its least-electable wing.
Kerry beat us among moderates, and he pounded us on electability.
Over the next week we're going to get a lot of help in taking him down. The media is going to provide much of it. Kerry was Michael Dukakis' Lieutenant Governor. His voting record is more liberal than Teddy Kennedy's. He has never held executive office. Etc. etc. etc.
Wesley Clark and John Edwards are going to help us in this. They are going to direct all their fire on Kerry. This is a good thing.
Governor Dean's ads, meanwhile, are going to start sounding more like the speeches he gave last week in New Hampshire. Overtly or not, they will make the points I made here last night. We are going to run to Kerry's right, on Dean's record, and take back the moderates.
It then becomes crucial that the anti-Kerry vote not go to Clark or Edwards, and that we take the "electability" issue back as well.
That will be even easier.
Start with extravagant praise. John Edwards is a great lawyer, what we wouldn't give to see him as Attorney General instead of John Ashcroft. Wesley Clark is a great military thinker, what we wouldn't give to see him as Defense Secretary instead of Donald Rumsfeld. And Joe Lieberman, wouldn't he make a great Chief Justice when William Rehnquist retires?
But none of these men, as worthy as they are, has any more chance of being elected President in November than Al Sharpton or Dennis Kucinich.
At some point this spring, they will all run through the $45 million they are allowed to spend under the campaign laws. At that point, they will go under virtual house arrest. They will not be able to buy ads, they will not be able to travel, they won't even be able to pay their Internet bills.
That is the law. Bill Clinton used it to hammer Bob Dole in 1996. George W. Bush used it to hammer Al Gore in 2000.
Today Bush has 200 million dollars ready to shock and awe us with the largest ad campaign in political history. He will spend that money turning Edwards into a Breck Girl, Clark into Beetle Bailey, or Lieberman into the devil himself.
The only way Democrats can compete this summer is for 2 million people, or more, to match Bush's $200 million with $200 million of their own. Our campaign can do that. Theirs can't. We would be proud to serve with any one of these worthy gentlemen, but the law as written, the law we will follow through this November, gives them no hope of victory, none.
Run to the right, become the only hope, and the nomination is ours.
Then comes the hard part.
radio ads open thread
Let's brainstorm! what would make the perfect radio ad? tailored to which state?
The Anti-Kerry http://www.deanforamerica.com/site/TR?pg=personal&fr_id=1090&px=1179278
When I started this blog on August 30th 2002, John Kerry was the front-runner and Howard Dean was this niche candidate who attracted me by his ideas. When Dean was crowned the front-runner by the media at the close of 2003, it was by definition a peak. But the peak gets the most exposure, and the withering media barrage that Dean has faced - and survived - has strengthened the campaign. It is now Kerry's turn to face the same barrage - which he avoided all during 2002 even though he had front-runner status, and all during 2003 when he was given up on for dead. And that means we get some breathing room. We'd rather have victory, but it's never bad to be given time to re-assess.
Yesterday, a governor of a small rural state lost in New Hampshire to a Massachusetts Senator. The parallels to Clinton in 1992 are strong, but they end today. From here on out, it is Dean making his own history. Clinton lost the first ten contests and regrouped in the South. Dean can't afford to lose ten contests and his natural base is the West. We need to focus on how Dean can win, and today we must stop looking at 1992.
Dean is on familiar ground again - while seasoned analysts like Kos have written him off, I think they are unconsciously) guilty of drinking the media self-importance Kool Aid. Even if Kos is right that the media has an interest to "end this thing as quickly as possible" (I disagree - the media thrives on frontrunner-underdog narratives), it's the height of cynicism to suggest that the voters truly are irrelevant. The primary is ours, not theirs.
I see a very simple scenario ahead. Dean is the anti-Kerry. Only these two candidates have the resources to compete against Bush. Edwards and Clark have celebrity status but the media oxygen has been sucked away - they rate editorials and analysis, but very little actual coverage. Watch for E and C to start sharpening attacks on one of the front-runners and leaving the other alone - my guess is K/E and D/C form "gentlemen's alliances" which may translate to actual Veep roles after the nomination - but don't bet that any of these four will drop out until the final bell (barring some disaster such as Edwards losing badly in SC).
From here, it's a media war. Not candidates doing barbecues and high school speeches (though those will of course continue), but a classic ad blitz on radio and television. In this war, the Dean grassroots (organized through the Dean Commons) will act in parallel to the Dean Unions (especially in Wisconsin and Michigan). The opponent is the well-oiled, and highly experienced, establishment machine that Kerry inherits. Either of these are a force to be reckoned with, and we will see K and D pick up states delivered to each by reasonable, neither tight nor massive, margins. The battle will last all the way to the convention and victory is directly related to effort on the ground, precinct by precinct, state by state, delegate by delegate.
That means it is up to us. Why hasn't that bat broken $700K yet? Dean busted his arse for two years in New Hampshire. Amanda and Jason and Anna froze theirs going from house to house, street to street, door to door. What have we done? NOT ENOUGH.
Yesterday, a governor of a small rural state lost in New Hampshire to a Massachusetts Senator. The parallels to Clinton in 1992 are strong, but they end today. From here on out, it is Dean making his own history. Clinton lost the first ten contests and regrouped in the South. Dean can't afford to lose ten contests and his natural base is the West. We need to focus on how Dean can win, and today we must stop looking at 1992.
Dean is on familiar ground again - while seasoned analysts like Kos have written him off, I think they are unconsciously) guilty of drinking the media self-importance Kool Aid. Even if Kos is right that the media has an interest to "end this thing as quickly as possible" (I disagree - the media thrives on frontrunner-underdog narratives), it's the height of cynicism to suggest that the voters truly are irrelevant. The primary is ours, not theirs.
I see a very simple scenario ahead. Dean is the anti-Kerry. Only these two candidates have the resources to compete against Bush. Edwards and Clark have celebrity status but the media oxygen has been sucked away - they rate editorials and analysis, but very little actual coverage. Watch for E and C to start sharpening attacks on one of the front-runners and leaving the other alone - my guess is K/E and D/C form "gentlemen's alliances" which may translate to actual Veep roles after the nomination - but don't bet that any of these four will drop out until the final bell (barring some disaster such as Edwards losing badly in SC).
From here, it's a media war. Not candidates doing barbecues and high school speeches (though those will of course continue), but a classic ad blitz on radio and television. In this war, the Dean grassroots (organized through the Dean Commons) will act in parallel to the Dean Unions (especially in Wisconsin and Michigan). The opponent is the well-oiled, and highly experienced, establishment machine that Kerry inherits. Either of these are a force to be reckoned with, and we will see K and D pick up states delivered to each by reasonable, neither tight nor massive, margins. The battle will last all the way to the convention and victory is directly related to effort on the ground, precinct by precinct, state by state, delegate by delegate.
That means it is up to us. Why hasn't that bat broken $700K yet? Dean busted his arse for two years in New Hampshire. Amanda and Jason and Anna froze theirs going from house to house, street to street, door to door. What have we done? NOT ENOUGH.
Daily Review
How long will Dean fight on
New Hampshire Focusing on Iraq, Health Care and Economy
Howard Dean the man for the job
Dean Sees Silver Lining in Second Place
Dean 'very pleased' with New Hampshire finish
Kerry wins again
Florida could play big role in nomination
New Hampshire Focusing on Iraq, Health Care and Economy
Howard Dean the man for the job
Dean Sees Silver Lining in Second Place
Dean 'very pleased' with New Hampshire finish
Kerry wins again
Florida could play big role in nomination
Tuesday, January 27, 2004
How We Will Beat Kerry
This candidate is amazing. Howard Dean is better than us, better even than his campaign managers. He is a brilliant politician.
All week Dean has been telling us how to beat John Kerry. We haven’t been listening. Kerry won Iowa by out-organizing us, and won New Hampshire by stealing our message.
He will not win again.
Howard Dean has shown us the way, in the debates, and in his town hall meetings. We can easily run to Kerry's right, on all the key issues, not just using rhetoric, but with hard facts. It comes down to these three key points:
1. Get this, South Carolina. Dean was FOR Gulf War I. Kerry voted AGAINST. Saddam Hussein was in Kuwait, Bush I had the approval of the UN, he had the entire world on our side and John F. Kerry voted NO. Then, when Bush II had no case, Kerry voted aye, and now tries to pretend he didn't. He’s a fraud on national security.
2. Listen up, Missouri. Dean can BALANCE A BUDGET, Kerry never has. John Kerry voted FOR this record deficit, both for tax cuts and spending increases. Want to visit Canada, Australia, Europe or Japan? YOU CAN’T AFFORD IT. That’s just the first step in a rapid process of economic destruction that can only be reversed by moving to balanced budgets, as in the 1990s. Howard Dean has balanced budgets. He will balance this one. He's a grown-up.
3. Are you hearing this in Arizona? Dean can PASS his health care program. Kerry can’t. Dean’s plan is simple. Buy insurance for the neediest, sell it to the nearly-needy. No big bureaucracy, no change in your present coverage. He did it in Vermont, which is no wealthier than the average state. Kerry wants a BIG GOVERNMENT PROGRAM for health care, another HillaryCare plan that won’t pass and thus won’t solve anything.
The good news, troops, is we will have a lot of help all next week. Edwards will be in South Carolina, hammering home these same points. Clark will be in Oklahoma. Even Joe Lieberman will be saying this in Delaware.
Yes, we need some new ads, and some new literature, but these are the facts. These are just the points Dean hammered home on the stump this last week. The problem is it didn’t sink in. No candidate from Massachusetts has ever lost the New Hampshire primary, and that streak continues.
So John Kerry tonight takes his place alongside President Henry Cabot Lodge, President Edward M. Kennedy, President Michael Dukakis and President Paul Tsongas. Fine.
We have him right where we want him.
Now let’s go out, prove the case, win the marathon, then go after George W. Bush.
All week Dean has been telling us how to beat John Kerry. We haven’t been listening. Kerry won Iowa by out-organizing us, and won New Hampshire by stealing our message.
He will not win again.
Howard Dean has shown us the way, in the debates, and in his town hall meetings. We can easily run to Kerry's right, on all the key issues, not just using rhetoric, but with hard facts. It comes down to these three key points:
1. Get this, South Carolina. Dean was FOR Gulf War I. Kerry voted AGAINST. Saddam Hussein was in Kuwait, Bush I had the approval of the UN, he had the entire world on our side and John F. Kerry voted NO. Then, when Bush II had no case, Kerry voted aye, and now tries to pretend he didn't. He’s a fraud on national security.
2. Listen up, Missouri. Dean can BALANCE A BUDGET, Kerry never has. John Kerry voted FOR this record deficit, both for tax cuts and spending increases. Want to visit Canada, Australia, Europe or Japan? YOU CAN’T AFFORD IT. That’s just the first step in a rapid process of economic destruction that can only be reversed by moving to balanced budgets, as in the 1990s. Howard Dean has balanced budgets. He will balance this one. He's a grown-up.
3. Are you hearing this in Arizona? Dean can PASS his health care program. Kerry can’t. Dean’s plan is simple. Buy insurance for the neediest, sell it to the nearly-needy. No big bureaucracy, no change in your present coverage. He did it in Vermont, which is no wealthier than the average state. Kerry wants a BIG GOVERNMENT PROGRAM for health care, another HillaryCare plan that won’t pass and thus won’t solve anything.
The good news, troops, is we will have a lot of help all next week. Edwards will be in South Carolina, hammering home these same points. Clark will be in Oklahoma. Even Joe Lieberman will be saying this in Delaware.
Yes, we need some new ads, and some new literature, but these are the facts. These are just the points Dean hammered home on the stump this last week. The problem is it didn’t sink in. No candidate from Massachusetts has ever lost the New Hampshire primary, and that streak continues.
So John Kerry tonight takes his place alongside President Henry Cabot Lodge, President Edward M. Kennedy, President Michael Dukakis and President Paul Tsongas. Fine.
We have him right where we want him.
Now let’s go out, prove the case, win the marathon, then go after George W. Bush.