Tuesday, January 27, 2004
How We Will Beat Kerry
This candidate is amazing. Howard Dean is better than us, better even than his campaign managers. He is a brilliant politician.
All week Dean has been telling us how to beat John Kerry. We haven’t been listening. Kerry won Iowa by out-organizing us, and won New Hampshire by stealing our message.
He will not win again.
Howard Dean has shown us the way, in the debates, and in his town hall meetings. We can easily run to Kerry's right, on all the key issues, not just using rhetoric, but with hard facts. It comes down to these three key points:
1. Get this, South Carolina. Dean was FOR Gulf War I. Kerry voted AGAINST. Saddam Hussein was in Kuwait, Bush I had the approval of the UN, he had the entire world on our side and John F. Kerry voted NO. Then, when Bush II had no case, Kerry voted aye, and now tries to pretend he didn't. He’s a fraud on national security.
2. Listen up, Missouri. Dean can BALANCE A BUDGET, Kerry never has. John Kerry voted FOR this record deficit, both for tax cuts and spending increases. Want to visit Canada, Australia, Europe or Japan? YOU CAN’T AFFORD IT. That’s just the first step in a rapid process of economic destruction that can only be reversed by moving to balanced budgets, as in the 1990s. Howard Dean has balanced budgets. He will balance this one. He's a grown-up.
3. Are you hearing this in Arizona? Dean can PASS his health care program. Kerry can’t. Dean’s plan is simple. Buy insurance for the neediest, sell it to the nearly-needy. No big bureaucracy, no change in your present coverage. He did it in Vermont, which is no wealthier than the average state. Kerry wants a BIG GOVERNMENT PROGRAM for health care, another HillaryCare plan that won’t pass and thus won’t solve anything.
The good news, troops, is we will have a lot of help all next week. Edwards will be in South Carolina, hammering home these same points. Clark will be in Oklahoma. Even Joe Lieberman will be saying this in Delaware.
Yes, we need some new ads, and some new literature, but these are the facts. These are just the points Dean hammered home on the stump this last week. The problem is it didn’t sink in. No candidate from Massachusetts has ever lost the New Hampshire primary, and that streak continues.
So John Kerry tonight takes his place alongside President Henry Cabot Lodge, President Edward M. Kennedy, President Michael Dukakis and President Paul Tsongas. Fine.
We have him right where we want him.
Now let’s go out, prove the case, win the marathon, then go after George W. Bush.
All week Dean has been telling us how to beat John Kerry. We haven’t been listening. Kerry won Iowa by out-organizing us, and won New Hampshire by stealing our message.
He will not win again.
Howard Dean has shown us the way, in the debates, and in his town hall meetings. We can easily run to Kerry's right, on all the key issues, not just using rhetoric, but with hard facts. It comes down to these three key points:
1. Get this, South Carolina. Dean was FOR Gulf War I. Kerry voted AGAINST. Saddam Hussein was in Kuwait, Bush I had the approval of the UN, he had the entire world on our side and John F. Kerry voted NO. Then, when Bush II had no case, Kerry voted aye, and now tries to pretend he didn't. He’s a fraud on national security.
2. Listen up, Missouri. Dean can BALANCE A BUDGET, Kerry never has. John Kerry voted FOR this record deficit, both for tax cuts and spending increases. Want to visit Canada, Australia, Europe or Japan? YOU CAN’T AFFORD IT. That’s just the first step in a rapid process of economic destruction that can only be reversed by moving to balanced budgets, as in the 1990s. Howard Dean has balanced budgets. He will balance this one. He's a grown-up.
3. Are you hearing this in Arizona? Dean can PASS his health care program. Kerry can’t. Dean’s plan is simple. Buy insurance for the neediest, sell it to the nearly-needy. No big bureaucracy, no change in your present coverage. He did it in Vermont, which is no wealthier than the average state. Kerry wants a BIG GOVERNMENT PROGRAM for health care, another HillaryCare plan that won’t pass and thus won’t solve anything.
The good news, troops, is we will have a lot of help all next week. Edwards will be in South Carolina, hammering home these same points. Clark will be in Oklahoma. Even Joe Lieberman will be saying this in Delaware.
Yes, we need some new ads, and some new literature, but these are the facts. These are just the points Dean hammered home on the stump this last week. The problem is it didn’t sink in. No candidate from Massachusetts has ever lost the New Hampshire primary, and that streak continues.
So John Kerry tonight takes his place alongside President Henry Cabot Lodge, President Edward M. Kennedy, President Michael Dukakis and President Paul Tsongas. Fine.
We have him right where we want him.
Now let’s go out, prove the case, win the marathon, then go after George W. Bush.
Do You Want to Stand Up, or Sit Down? http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/NH/index.html
Based on the early results, I'd say finishing a strong second in New Hampshire is just what the doctor ordered for Dean. The pundits predicted his collapse after Iowa, and New Hampshire voters have repudiated their predictions. While this isn't a huge victory for Dean, it puts him squarely in position with Kerry as the two major candidates in this race.
Some interesting exit polling from CNN:
29% of New Hampshire voters said that "standing up for beliefs" was their top quality in a candidate. Dean led all candidates on that score (47% to Kerry's 20%). That was the top quality voters were looking for in their candidate. Another interesting take was on the candidate "most likely to shake things up" - again Dean overwhelmingly (44% to Clark's 14% with Edwards at 13% and Kerry at 12%).
What this polling tells me is that voters are afraid. They're afraid of George Bush, and they're voting for Kerry because 60% of them think he's "most electable." For my money, a leader who "stands up for his beliefs" and "shakes things up" is exactly the candidate who is "electable."
Let's all work together for first on February 3rd!
Some interesting exit polling from CNN:
29% of New Hampshire voters said that "standing up for beliefs" was their top quality in a candidate. Dean led all candidates on that score (47% to Kerry's 20%). That was the top quality voters were looking for in their candidate. Another interesting take was on the candidate "most likely to shake things up" - again Dean overwhelmingly (44% to Clark's 14% with Edwards at 13% and Kerry at 12%).
What this polling tells me is that voters are afraid. They're afraid of George Bush, and they're voting for Kerry because 60% of them think he's "most electable." For my money, a leader who "stands up for his beliefs" and "shakes things up" is exactly the candidate who is "electable."
Let's all work together for first on February 3rd!
How We Will Beat Kerry
"A Crushing Defeat"
Chris Matthews just said that Kerry will win by double digits and it will be "a crushing defeat" for Howard Dean. Sen. Kerry addresses his supporters in a few minutes. Howard Fineman of Newsweek says that now Dean's only option is to start hitting Kerry on his record, as and insider, etc. Further, he says that what "they want on the blog" (he didn't specify Dean Nation or the O-Blog). Is it? Is there any other option?
Dean Matching Funds Challenge http://www.deanforamerica.com/site/TR?pg=personal&fr_id=1090&px=1179278
Take the Dean Nation Matching Funds Challenge - pledge to contribute one dollar per % point that Dean draws in NH!
real-time precinct results coming in http://www.thewmurchannel.com/politics/2792974/detail.html
as of 6:55 PM CST, Dean is in 2nd by 12 points, but ahead of Clark and Edwards by teh same margin. Only 8% of precincts reporting.. click and obsessively refresh!
Dean on Hannity tonight
Listen in - this should be great! Dean is scheduled to be on the show in the last hour. I think that's the 8-9pm hour CST, but correct me if I am wrong...
shamelessly stolen from the o-blog.. BTW Kucinich is on with Hannity right now and doing really a great job!
shamelessly stolen from the o-blog.. BTW Kucinich is on with Hannity right now and doing really a great job!
Open Thread: New Hampshire Primary
The polls are still open, but not for long. MSNBC is covering the primary, Lou Dobbs is surprisingly talking about securing our borders (see my rant here). But let's get the open thread started and discuss the Dean campaigns showing tonight.
Update: Polls are closed. MSNBC and CNN are both saying it's a close race according to exit polls.
Update: Fox News says exit polling is Kerry by seven points. Also reports Trippi would be greatly pleased with those numbers.
Update: CNN has projected that Sen. John Kerry has won New Hampshire.
Update: MSNBC has projected that Sen. John Kerry has won New Hampshire.
Update: Fox News has projected that Sen. John Kerry has won New Hampshire.
Update: Polls are closed. MSNBC and CNN are both saying it's a close race according to exit polls.
Update: Fox News says exit polling is Kerry by seven points. Also reports Trippi would be greatly pleased with those numbers.
Update: CNN has projected that Sen. John Kerry has won New Hampshire.
Update: MSNBC has projected that Sen. John Kerry has won New Hampshire.
Update: Fox News has projected that Sen. John Kerry has won New Hampshire.
Report from Manchester, NH
Hey everybody!
I'm here in the Manchester office where there are about 30 of us (mostly from Massachusetts for Dean) making phone calls to strong Dean-leaners, trying to get every last potential Dean voter to the polls. This place is absolutely throbbing with voices, phones ringing, and people dashing around.
About an hour ago, Tom Hughes (NH Field Director) announced that they're cautiously optimistic but we need to pull out all the stops this afternoon. He was really pumped and led the whole HQ in several rousing rounds of clapping and foot stomping. The building was shaking!!!
If you're in NH, do whatever you can in the next few hours. If you're not in NH and you can make it here, start driving now! And if you can't make it, send happy thoughts and good karma to all of us in NH! We're gonna be hoarse by tonight, I swear. Oh and pray for the snow to wait 'til 8pm when the polls close!
Remains to be seen if we'll get home to Boston tonight, what with the storm and all. We'll all be gathering at the Univ of Southern NH to watch the returns and listen to Gov. Dean once the resolts are announced, so we may be here late and by then there may be much white stuff to drive through. But we brought our pillows and blankets in case we need to crash here for the night. ;-)
GO DEAN!!!!!
I'm here in the Manchester office where there are about 30 of us (mostly from Massachusetts for Dean) making phone calls to strong Dean-leaners, trying to get every last potential Dean voter to the polls. This place is absolutely throbbing with voices, phones ringing, and people dashing around.
About an hour ago, Tom Hughes (NH Field Director) announced that they're cautiously optimistic but we need to pull out all the stops this afternoon. He was really pumped and led the whole HQ in several rousing rounds of clapping and foot stomping. The building was shaking!!!
If you're in NH, do whatever you can in the next few hours. If you're not in NH and you can make it here, start driving now! And if you can't make it, send happy thoughts and good karma to all of us in NH! We're gonna be hoarse by tonight, I swear. Oh and pray for the snow to wait 'til 8pm when the polls close!
Remains to be seen if we'll get home to Boston tonight, what with the storm and all. We'll all be gathering at the Univ of Southern NH to watch the returns and listen to Gov. Dean once the resolts are announced, so we may be here late and by then there may be much white stuff to drive through. But we brought our pillows and blankets in case we need to crash here for the night. ;-)
GO DEAN!!!!!
Half-Time Score http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/1/27/185137/760
DailyKos, who admittedly has a bias in our favor, printed some early exit polls from New Hampshire this afternoon.
Fingers crossed folks. He notes in his item (linked at the headline) that these are like half-time scores at the Super Bowl, and may mean absolutely nothing. But there are good signs from Karen Hicks' visibility operation, and the game isn't over until the final whistle.
LA Times:
Dean 34
Kerry 33
ABC News:
Kerry 37
Dean 31
If these scores hold up, we'll have enough to call it a comeback. If we eke out even a one-vote victory, we're the lead story.
One more note. Kos says MSNBC will broadcast exit poll numbers at 4 PM.
Don't. Give. Up.
Fingers crossed folks. He notes in his item (linked at the headline) that these are like half-time scores at the Super Bowl, and may mean absolutely nothing. But there are good signs from Karen Hicks' visibility operation, and the game isn't over until the final whistle.
LA Times:
Dean 34
Kerry 33
ABC News:
Kerry 37
Dean 31
If these scores hold up, we'll have enough to call it a comeback. If we eke out even a one-vote victory, we're the lead story.
One more note. Kos says MSNBC will broadcast exit poll numbers at 4 PM.
Don't. Give. Up.
fashion observations done right http://www.prospect.org/weblog/archives/2004/01/index.html#002309
There have been numerous, painful examples of fashion-critique aimed at presidential candidates. We all remember the earth-tone thing with Gore and more recently the sweater thing with Clark - it's nothing but lazy journalism and worse, it actually dilutes the importance of the political process by dragging it down to the very definition of superficiality.
Today, though, Garance Franke-Ruta does fashion analysis right. Not by inferring from the Doctors Deans' clothes what they are trying to spin, but a simple observation of who they are:
Today, though, Garance Franke-Ruta does fashion analysis right. Not by inferring from the Doctors Deans' clothes what they are trying to spin, but a simple observation of who they are:
If you've ever spent time in the medical arena you know that being a physician is something very different from being an attorney, which is what John Edwards, John Kerry, and Joe Lieberman are. Your stance to the world is simply different if you're a physician, because -- outside of a few specialties, like plastic surgery -- your power doesn't come from how you look or how you appear or even how you sound. It comes from your knowledge and the capacity to do things no one else is authorized to do in their daily lives -- to touch bodies, to demand of individuals, to prescribe courses of action -- and from the human power of interaction. You can't convince people to be healed, no matter how eloquently you speak about disease and suffering or what you wear. You have to actually do something to make a person better. You also have to do the right thing. And if you don't, the consequences can be dire and literally deadly.
The Deans today have doubtless been shaped by their profession as much as their state of residence: Judy Dean wears exam-room shoes, a pair of comfortable slip-ons with rubber wedge heels that seemed a close relative of nurse's shoes, and Howard wears penny-loafers. He's got a pair of coke-bottle-thick gold-wire-rimmed aviator style glasses he wears sometimes when he thinks the press isn't looking. He still wears a square-faced, gold-tone watch that would look perfect poking out of a white, lab-coated sleeve. She doesn't wear make-up -- not even powder -- and looks like a person who has spent years in a job where how she looked was entirely secondary to what she could do. They are doctors, not Vermont hippies, and they helps explain their anti-aesthetic aesthetic as much as anything else.
Henry Cabot Lodge http://www.politicallibrary.org/TallState/1964rep.html
Before you look at the last polls (which show Kerry pulling away), and before we see any real results (which may be quite different) a little historical perspective for y'all.
Back in 1964 the Republican Party faced a choice between fighting or accomodating. Democrats had been in power most of the previous 32 years. The only exception, Dwight Eisenhower, had come from the accomodationist or "Dewey" wing of the party, and his vice president, Richard Nixon, failed election in 1960.
But there was a new voice in the world, a Republican telling his fellow party members that they needed to stand up for themselves, unafraid, that they must have Republican principles. He even had a book, "The Conscience of a Conservative."
The man, of course, was Barry Goldwater.
Now I know I'm going to be roundly criticized for this post, because, in the end, Goldwater lost the election. But Goldwater also changed history. Goldwater took over the Republican Party for conservatism, which was the first step toward taking over the country. He was a very important figure.
Anyway, you may be interested in knowing how Goldwater did in New Hampshire.
He got stomped.
Goldwater finished in a near-tie for second with Nelson Rockefeller, at about 20% of the vote, and the winner was a "favorite son," Henry Cabot Lodge of Massachusetts. Lodge, who had been Nixon's running mate in 1960, was an accomodationist, which we'd now call a "liberal" Republican. He was cagey, had made a career of working at the feet of rampant Democracy, and he represented the fear that a full-throated roar on behalf of principle would not work.
In the end, remember, Lodge was wrong. In the end, Goldwater won the nomination. Yes, he failed at the election, but he turned his party, and he turned history.
I said this six months ago. If that's the worst you can say of Howard Dean, and I think it is, then he is a major, vital, important figure in our time, and his cause is worth fighting for.
Daily Review
Hardball interview: Howard and Judy Dean
The Misunderstanding of Judy Dean
Democrats fire shots in final New Hampshire push
Six signs to watch in New Hampshire vote
Congressman visits Blacksburg to gain support for Dean
The Misunderstanding of Judy Dean
Democrats fire shots in final New Hampshire push
Six signs to watch in New Hampshire vote
Congressman visits Blacksburg to gain support for Dean
Monday, January 26, 2004
Open Thread: The Daily Show
Gov. Dean sat down with the Daily Show's John Stewart. Not the funniest sketch that TDS has ever done, but I think it did show Dean as somebody who is willing to joke around and have fun. Couple this with his earlier interview with Dr. Judy Dean on Hardball, and I think he's had a good media day. If Zogby is right and NH is watching... who knows?
The Only Thing We Have To Fear http://www.hpol.org/fdr/inaug/
For over a week the Dean campaign has done everything right.
The rallies have been huge. The candidate has been wonderful. He won the debate by going consistently to the opponent's right, in a state that lets independents and Republicans vote in the primary. The press has begun ganging up on the other guy for a change. The polls have been moving. The field organization is first-rate. We have all the late momentum.
But I am also prepared for the possibility we may lose tomorrow, to John Kerry.
Two sets of numbers concern me. First, over half those surveyed think John Kerry can beat Bush. Second, a Newsweek poll actually shows Kerry beating Bush.
Many Democrats would sell their souls to beat Bush. And, in New Hampshire, many may be about to.
Because I have a better chance of beating George W. Bush than John Kerry has. We have seen this movie before. Kerry was Michael Dukakis' Lieutenant-Governor. As a Senator, Kerry has usually been in the minority.
Kerry has spent his entire public life on the defensive, and it shows. He's cagey. He voted for the war, not because he thought it was right, but because he figured he could spin it, as he has. He voted for No Child Left Behind. When Bush has bullied, Kerry has retreated, like a good lieutenant before a superior foe. Then he has told voters that, no, that wasn't a retreat, it was a "strategic withdrawal," a "reconnaissance in force."
Governor Dean, on the other hand, has been a political general. Yes, it was a small state. Yes, most were modest battles. But he won them, even the tough ones. And he made life better.
So Dean's not the trouble. The "I Have A Scream" speech isn't the trouble. The trouble is this whole concept of "the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party." (Polls show liberals are with us, moderates with the more-liberal Kerry.)
I believe in the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party. We can't hope to win, as Democrats, until we're proud to stand as Democrats again. We can't win, as Democrats, until we act like Democrats again, until we stand fast again, until we refuse to retreat again, until we are ready to attack and win again.
John Kerry won't do that. His public career shows no examples of the personal courage he displayed in Vietnam, or in the anti-war movement.
But when you've been beat like a dog long enough, as Democrats have, your courage can fail you.
Franklin Roosevelt was right. What we really have to fear, tomorrow, from our fellow Democrats, is fear itself.
The rallies have been huge. The candidate has been wonderful. He won the debate by going consistently to the opponent's right, in a state that lets independents and Republicans vote in the primary. The press has begun ganging up on the other guy for a change. The polls have been moving. The field organization is first-rate. We have all the late momentum.
But I am also prepared for the possibility we may lose tomorrow, to John Kerry.
Two sets of numbers concern me. First, over half those surveyed think John Kerry can beat Bush. Second, a Newsweek poll actually shows Kerry beating Bush.
Many Democrats would sell their souls to beat Bush. And, in New Hampshire, many may be about to.
Because I have a better chance of beating George W. Bush than John Kerry has. We have seen this movie before. Kerry was Michael Dukakis' Lieutenant-Governor. As a Senator, Kerry has usually been in the minority.
Kerry has spent his entire public life on the defensive, and it shows. He's cagey. He voted for the war, not because he thought it was right, but because he figured he could spin it, as he has. He voted for No Child Left Behind. When Bush has bullied, Kerry has retreated, like a good lieutenant before a superior foe. Then he has told voters that, no, that wasn't a retreat, it was a "strategic withdrawal," a "reconnaissance in force."
Governor Dean, on the other hand, has been a political general. Yes, it was a small state. Yes, most were modest battles. But he won them, even the tough ones. And he made life better.
So Dean's not the trouble. The "I Have A Scream" speech isn't the trouble. The trouble is this whole concept of "the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party." (Polls show liberals are with us, moderates with the more-liberal Kerry.)
I believe in the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party. We can't hope to win, as Democrats, until we're proud to stand as Democrats again. We can't win, as Democrats, until we act like Democrats again, until we stand fast again, until we refuse to retreat again, until we are ready to attack and win again.
John Kerry won't do that. His public career shows no examples of the personal courage he displayed in Vietnam, or in the anti-war movement.
But when you've been beat like a dog long enough, as Democrats have, your courage can fail you.
Franklin Roosevelt was right. What we really have to fear, tomorrow, from our fellow Democrats, is fear itself.
media navel-gazing http://www.msnbc.msn.com/Default.aspx?id=4064624&p1=0
I am here to defend the media. Why? Because this "article" by Howard Mortmann, at MSNBC.com, does the media a disservice by claiming to be a part of it. In fact, Howard Mortman is a regular contributor to NRO, and stated on NPR that Enron didn't qualify as a political scandal. The article linked above is a collection of blogger quotes, without any reference to where the quotes came from or any links. I am going to give Howard Mortmann the benefit of the doubt and assume that every unnattributed quote is accurate, because I don't see any reason to think he is a liar. But a column saying that bloggers are biased from, well, Howard Mortman is at least deliciously ironic enough that it becomes a good story. It's a familiar modus operandi for Howard Mortmann, though. I wonder when he gets around to doing a similar expose on what the folks at Free Republic say?
But there is a real media bias, as opposed to political-opinion-writer-masquerading-as-real-journalist bias. And you can find no better rigorous documentation of that bias by consulting one of the finest new blogs on the web - the Campaign Desk from the Columbia School of Journalism. The blog is fantastic (and doesn't spare the Dean campaign or any other - keeping us a bit honest too). One of the recurring topics is "Spin Buster", which documents exactly how the media feeds on itself. Their systematic dissection of how Dean's Rebel Yell became the Angry Dean meme is essential reading in understanding how reporters end up writing pieces "devoted solely to the storyline that they have helped to create."
Keep the CJR blog on your reading list - and you'll learn what media bias really is.
But there is a real media bias, as opposed to political-opinion-writer-masquerading-as-real-journalist bias. And you can find no better rigorous documentation of that bias by consulting one of the finest new blogs on the web - the Campaign Desk from the Columbia School of Journalism. The blog is fantastic (and doesn't spare the Dean campaign or any other - keeping us a bit honest too). One of the recurring topics is "Spin Buster", which documents exactly how the media feeds on itself. Their systematic dissection of how Dean's Rebel Yell became the Angry Dean meme is essential reading in understanding how reporters end up writing pieces "devoted solely to the storyline that they have helped to create."
Keep the CJR blog on your reading list - and you'll learn what media bias really is.
Greetings from New Hampshire
Hey everybody.
I've had no time to post for days now. Frankly, I'm still recovering from Iowa. But this is my third day in NH and I just wanted to chime in with my two cents.
First, allow me to say a big 'ol WORD to Anna's post below about why we lost in Iowa. Our precinct captins not being experienced and well-trained and ready to play hardball and way too young -- this was the weakest link. Period. Lots of other factors -- most notably the toolish media -- but the precinct captains would be at the top of my Top Ten List of Reasons Dean Lost Iowa. Live and learn, eh?
That said, Karen Hicks runs a much different and much tighter ship here. I have several friends who work in Manchester HQ and they rave about her. This gives me great hope.
I've been to several events up here over the past few days. Had the privelege of seeing Howard and Judy at the "Women for Dean" event the other day. If you haven't seen the video of the event, please do. It's available at C-SPAN, I believe. I'd post the link but I have only a few moments to post. :-)
Anyway, Dean was just fabulous at this forum on women's issues. Judy was great, too. They both came by the overflow room prior to the main event. I happened to be in the front row of the overflow crowd so I got to shake both their hands and get some good pics. As he was exiting, a group of African-American teens from Chicago sang their Dean rap song for the Drs. Dean. It was so great -- they had led the whole room singing it a few times as we were waiting. Here's how it went (my memory isn't perfect):
I'm a Deanocrat
Yeah Yeah
I'm a Deanocrat
Yeah Yeah
It's not about where we've been
It's about where we're goin'
Where are we goin'?
To DC, baby!
To DC, baby!
Needless to say, the Deans loved it. A great moment.
This morning, I was at a town hall event where Howard and Judy both spoke...preceded by Martin Sheen. This was a highlight -- our MA group just missed Martin in Iowa and we were quite bummed. He did not dissapoint. He compared Dean to Bobby Kennedy -- a comparison I wholeheartedly endorse. Dean did very well, altho it was a more subdued crowd so there was a tad less energy for him to feed off and he seemed tired. There were also several incredibly rude and loud LaRouche hecklers who, god willing, will not be the focus of much media coverage. They were yelling and screaming about how Dean is the only Dem candidate who's never criticised Dick Cheney (LOL) and that Dean is hence a lier, etc. Typical loony ravings. Dean was quite patient with them, saying he respected their freedom of speech and they should do the same and let the woman in the audience who was waiting to ask a question do so. When they wouldn't shut up, he asked his staff and the security folks to please remove the hecklers. The crowd was totally cheering him on.
Oh another tidbit. Some of us from MA have been trying to get the media to pay attention to the fact that (1) John Kerry does not have much popular support in his home state; he is not loved a la Ted Kennedy; his constituent service stinks and everyone knows it; his legislative record is mediocre at best; his vote on Gulf War 2 pissed off a ton of his constituents etc. and (2) Dean has enormous support in MA. We've been trying to get press coverage here in NH for several elected officials who've endorsed Dean. There was a good article in yesterday's NY Times on the subject -- check it out.
Anyway, at the Dean-Sheen-Dean event today (hee), who should sit down next to me and ask if I'm an undecided NH voter or a Dean supporter? Gloria Borger. So I bent her ear on the Kerry-not-popular-in-MA-but-Dean-very-popular-in-MA angle. She was polite but probably won't follow up. Ah well, will keep trying.
Lots to do, must get a move on. Onward!
I've had no time to post for days now. Frankly, I'm still recovering from Iowa. But this is my third day in NH and I just wanted to chime in with my two cents.
First, allow me to say a big 'ol WORD to Anna's post below about why we lost in Iowa. Our precinct captins not being experienced and well-trained and ready to play hardball and way too young -- this was the weakest link. Period. Lots of other factors -- most notably the toolish media -- but the precinct captains would be at the top of my Top Ten List of Reasons Dean Lost Iowa. Live and learn, eh?
That said, Karen Hicks runs a much different and much tighter ship here. I have several friends who work in Manchester HQ and they rave about her. This gives me great hope.
I've been to several events up here over the past few days. Had the privelege of seeing Howard and Judy at the "Women for Dean" event the other day. If you haven't seen the video of the event, please do. It's available at C-SPAN, I believe. I'd post the link but I have only a few moments to post. :-)
Anyway, Dean was just fabulous at this forum on women's issues. Judy was great, too. They both came by the overflow room prior to the main event. I happened to be in the front row of the overflow crowd so I got to shake both their hands and get some good pics. As he was exiting, a group of African-American teens from Chicago sang their Dean rap song for the Drs. Dean. It was so great -- they had led the whole room singing it a few times as we were waiting. Here's how it went (my memory isn't perfect):
I'm a Deanocrat
Yeah Yeah
I'm a Deanocrat
Yeah Yeah
It's not about where we've been
It's about where we're goin'
Where are we goin'?
To DC, baby!
To DC, baby!
Needless to say, the Deans loved it. A great moment.
This morning, I was at a town hall event where Howard and Judy both spoke...preceded by Martin Sheen. This was a highlight -- our MA group just missed Martin in Iowa and we were quite bummed. He did not dissapoint. He compared Dean to Bobby Kennedy -- a comparison I wholeheartedly endorse. Dean did very well, altho it was a more subdued crowd so there was a tad less energy for him to feed off and he seemed tired. There were also several incredibly rude and loud LaRouche hecklers who, god willing, will not be the focus of much media coverage. They were yelling and screaming about how Dean is the only Dem candidate who's never criticised Dick Cheney (LOL) and that Dean is hence a lier, etc. Typical loony ravings. Dean was quite patient with them, saying he respected their freedom of speech and they should do the same and let the woman in the audience who was waiting to ask a question do so. When they wouldn't shut up, he asked his staff and the security folks to please remove the hecklers. The crowd was totally cheering him on.
Oh another tidbit. Some of us from MA have been trying to get the media to pay attention to the fact that (1) John Kerry does not have much popular support in his home state; he is not loved a la Ted Kennedy; his constituent service stinks and everyone knows it; his legislative record is mediocre at best; his vote on Gulf War 2 pissed off a ton of his constituents etc. and (2) Dean has enormous support in MA. We've been trying to get press coverage here in NH for several elected officials who've endorsed Dean. There was a good article in yesterday's NY Times on the subject -- check it out.
Anyway, at the Dean-Sheen-Dean event today (hee), who should sit down next to me and ask if I'm an undecided NH voter or a Dean supporter? Gloria Borger. So I bent her ear on the Kerry-not-popular-in-MA-but-Dean-very-popular-in-MA angle. She was polite but probably won't follow up. Ah well, will keep trying.
Lots to do, must get a move on. Onward!
Points South http://dean2004.blogspot.com/
Well, Trammell has arrived in Los Angeles, California! The move is complete and I'm unpacked and settled in. How ya doing Dean Nation? Sorry I haven't been more communicative. Boy have a missed blogging a bunch with all the recent goings-on in Iowa and New Hampshire!!! So, just a quick note and you'll likely see a post or two from me in the next day or so.
Cheers and say hi, - Trammell
Cheers and say hi, - Trammell
Why The Polls Are Wrong
Math time, boys and girls!
Here's what the pollsters and the news media won't tell you. Here's why the polls are wrong.
Get out your statistics textbooks. Let's turn to the section on "total universe." The larger the market, the more accurately you can forecast its behavior, because the easier it is to get a representative sample.
In a national election, the total universe is over 100 million, so it's relatively easy to get a representative sample.
In a New Hampshire primary, the total universe may be 100-150,000. We don't know. Not only that, but because the total potential universe is small, it's very hard (nearly impossible) to draw a representative sample from it. All the "tricks" pollsters use to even out differences among samples, which work well with a big universe, skew the results further with a small universe.
In a national election, where 100 million vote, you need to change 1 million minds to get a 1% movement in the polls. In a New Hampshire primary, you need a change of 1,000 minds. You can get the same impact by changing the contents of the sample, by changing who actually turns out.
So there is no way for the polls to be right in New Hampshire, and frankly, they never are. They are nearly always wrong. Last time, in the Republican primary, polls taken the day before the election showed Bush up 4% on John McCain. He lost by 17%.
What does this mean? First, momentum is important, and right now it appears Dean has it. Second, Get Out The Vote (GOTV) activities mean everything. You've got to get out all the voters you can. Then you hope for the best.
Fingers crossed.
Here's what the pollsters and the news media won't tell you. Here's why the polls are wrong.
Get out your statistics textbooks. Let's turn to the section on "total universe." The larger the market, the more accurately you can forecast its behavior, because the easier it is to get a representative sample.
In a national election, the total universe is over 100 million, so it's relatively easy to get a representative sample.
In a New Hampshire primary, the total universe may be 100-150,000. We don't know. Not only that, but because the total potential universe is small, it's very hard (nearly impossible) to draw a representative sample from it. All the "tricks" pollsters use to even out differences among samples, which work well with a big universe, skew the results further with a small universe.
In a national election, where 100 million vote, you need to change 1 million minds to get a 1% movement in the polls. In a New Hampshire primary, you need a change of 1,000 minds. You can get the same impact by changing the contents of the sample, by changing who actually turns out.
So there is no way for the polls to be right in New Hampshire, and frankly, they never are. They are nearly always wrong. Last time, in the Republican primary, polls taken the day before the election showed Bush up 4% on John McCain. He lost by 17%.
What does this mean? First, momentum is important, and right now it appears Dean has it. Second, Get Out The Vote (GOTV) activities mean everything. You've got to get out all the voters you can. Then you hope for the best.
Fingers crossed.
open thread
This is it! BTW< rumor has it that Dean will be on the Daily Show tonight. can anyone confirm?
dead Iraqis and dirty tricks http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2004/01/26/dean_decries_iraq_war_in_return_to_strategy/
the full quote from Dean in New Hampshire:
(emphasis mine). Kudos to Dean for actually talking about dead Iraqis (the one topic that left and right seem to gloss over in the debate about the cost of Iraqi freedom). However, watch for Holy Joe Lieberman, Senator War Hero Kerry, and possibly Edwards in print handouts to ground personnel to spin this as "Dean says Iraqis are worse off after Saddam!" without mentioning that he was explicitly talking about dead Iraqis. Infamous AP writer Nedra Pickler already "fails to mention" that fact in her dishonest headline.
It also seems that someone is calling New Hampshire families at 4am with recorded messages claiming to be from the Dean camp. The NH HQ for the Dean campaign quickly issued a statement:
What links these issues is the way in which a major target remains painted on Dean's back, despite all talk of Clark and Kerry needing to focus their guns on each other. Clark might well lose to Edwards for third place, and the other campaigns stil see Dean as a major threat - they fear the bat.
Now, it's too early to tell whether the other campaigns will run with the dead Iraqi quote, since not even Newsmax or Drudge have gotten around to it yet. Maybe the campaigns will remain above the fray. And I personally doubt that any of the campaigns are directly involved in the phone scamming, though whoever is responsible is probably someone senior enough to have access to the resources necessary for the stunt. Only Kerry has really gone explicitly negative. I think we are seeing a ground war fought by extremists within the Kerry camp and also by RNC strategists in sync (but not in collusion) out of Deanfear.
Still, we know that these smear campaigns do work. So, follow the directive of President Bartlett - today is Howard Dean Day in the Granite State. Show your suport by feeding the Comeback Bat and let's root for our team freezing their butts off in NH! Show Jason and all the other volunteers that you're with them in spirit - feed the bat!
You can say that it's great that Saddam [Hussein] is gone, and I'm sure that a lot of Iraqis feel it is great that Saddam is gone, but a lot of them gave their lives, and their living standard is a whole lot worse now than it was before."
(emphasis mine). Kudos to Dean for actually talking about dead Iraqis (the one topic that left and right seem to gloss over in the debate about the cost of Iraqi freedom). However, watch for Holy Joe Lieberman, Senator War Hero Kerry, and possibly Edwards in print handouts to ground personnel to spin this as "Dean says Iraqis are worse off after Saddam!" without mentioning that he was explicitly talking about dead Iraqis. Infamous AP writer Nedra Pickler already "fails to mention" that fact in her dishonest headline.
It also seems that someone is calling New Hampshire families at 4am with recorded messages claiming to be from the Dean camp. The NH HQ for the Dean campaign quickly issued a statement:
Statement from State Director Karen Hicks
Posted by Timothy Jones
on Sun, 01/25/2004, 12:50 pm
Today, Karen Hicks, Dean For America's New Hampshire State Director, made the following statement:
"In recent days, our campaign has been hearing reports from New Hampshire voters that they are receiving:
* phone calls early in the morning and late at night;
* "robo calls" from soulless machines, not calls from considerate people;
* calls claiming to originate from the Dean campaign, but do not;
* and even harassing calls and bigoted messages.
Let me be very clear. The Dean campaign does not call New Hampshire homes before 8:30 am or after 8:30 pm. Our calls are made by respectful people, not droning machines. Our callers tell the truth.
We call on the other campaigns to make the same commitments.
We are grateful for the extraordinary engagement of New Hampshire's people in this race. But our campaign believes that everyone deserves some peace, some respect, and a truthful message."
What links these issues is the way in which a major target remains painted on Dean's back, despite all talk of Clark and Kerry needing to focus their guns on each other. Clark might well lose to Edwards for third place, and the other campaigns stil see Dean as a major threat - they fear the bat.
Now, it's too early to tell whether the other campaigns will run with the dead Iraqi quote, since not even Newsmax or Drudge have gotten around to it yet. Maybe the campaigns will remain above the fray. And I personally doubt that any of the campaigns are directly involved in the phone scamming, though whoever is responsible is probably someone senior enough to have access to the resources necessary for the stunt. Only Kerry has really gone explicitly negative. I think we are seeing a ground war fought by extremists within the Kerry camp and also by RNC strategists in sync (but not in collusion) out of Deanfear.
Still, we know that these smear campaigns do work. So, follow the directive of President Bartlett - today is Howard Dean Day in the Granite State. Show your suport by feeding the Comeback Bat and let's root for our team freezing their butts off in NH! Show Jason and all the other volunteers that you're with them in spirit - feed the bat!
Yes, We Have A Chance http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4060197/
Given up for dead in New Hampshire just a few days ago, the Dean campaign has roared back into a statistical dead heat with that of John Kerry, according to the latest MSNBC/Zogby tracking poll.
That poll had Kerry ahead 28-25, but that is within the poll's margin of error. Dean has gained 7 points in the Zogby poll in two days.
We've done this by staying positive, allowing Kerry to go negative, on both Clark and on us. This is precisely the mistake we made in Iowa, focusing only on Gephardt, going negative on Gephardt, while Kerry and Edwards stood above the fray.
The key to the next 24 hours is to keep the pressure on. Keep talking to people. Accept "no" if that's the answer. We can win if we get the votes of independents, so find them and make sure you can get ours to the polls.
It's all going to be about GOTV (get out the vote) tomorrow, with snow expected and temperatures under 10 degrees. Zogby has Dean leading in New Hampshire's Second Congressional District, but that's where the distances to the polling places are greatest. He also has us leading among voters under 30, which are also those least likely to vote.
There's an old football saying called "Finish The Drill." By that they mean work right through the tape to the finish line, because it's the team that finishes strong, with energy left in the last minutes of the fourth quarter, that wins the game.
Finish The Drill, Deaniacs. Or take it in another context, that of the great New England poet Robert Frost:
The woods are lovely, dark and deep,
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep.
That poll had Kerry ahead 28-25, but that is within the poll's margin of error. Dean has gained 7 points in the Zogby poll in two days.
We've done this by staying positive, allowing Kerry to go negative, on both Clark and on us. This is precisely the mistake we made in Iowa, focusing only on Gephardt, going negative on Gephardt, while Kerry and Edwards stood above the fray.
The key to the next 24 hours is to keep the pressure on. Keep talking to people. Accept "no" if that's the answer. We can win if we get the votes of independents, so find them and make sure you can get ours to the polls.
It's all going to be about GOTV (get out the vote) tomorrow, with snow expected and temperatures under 10 degrees. Zogby has Dean leading in New Hampshire's Second Congressional District, but that's where the distances to the polling places are greatest. He also has us leading among voters under 30, which are also those least likely to vote.
There's an old football saying called "Finish The Drill." By that they mean work right through the tape to the finish line, because it's the team that finishes strong, with energy left in the last minutes of the fourth quarter, that wins the game.
Finish The Drill, Deaniacs. Or take it in another context, that of the great New England poet Robert Frost:
The woods are lovely, dark and deep,
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep.
Sunday, January 25, 2004
Dean and Bin Laden http://www.tnr.com/blog/campaignjournal?pid=1242
I see from this Kerry attack mailing that they are using Dean's comments on trying Osama Bin Laden. Not to put too fine a point on it, bit if the Israelis can try Adolf Eichmann, surely we can try Bin Laden. In some places, people clamor for trials of those who have wronged them. Perhaps Americans have grown so complacent in our prosperity that we've lost track of the things that make us truly great. Fortunately there's at least one candidate in the race who understands, and is level-headed enough to keep them foremost in his mind.
That is all.
That is all.
Sunday in New Hampshire
First, computer time is a rare commodity here in the New Hampshire state Dean for America office. My apologies for the abrupt ending yesterday and in advance today.
Today was in almost every way an ideal day. All day, positivity and optimism surrounded me. Dr. Dean himself said that tracking polls were definitely going in the right direction and that we were the only campaign moving at all.
I started the day in a much better state, after having hung out with several other volunteers and slept in an actual bed. This morning, I was lucky enough to see a town hall meeting conducted by the Doctors Dean at SNHU, which you should watch if you can (it was taped by C-SPAN). The place was packed -- I arrived 15 minutes before it was scheduled to start, and the overflow room was overflowing. Before the Deans spoke, they actually came out to the overflow room first for a quick introduction (which was an extremely thoughtful gesture to the folks in that room). After a fine introduction by Judy in the main room, Howard proceeded by, simply, inspiring. He was presidential, but he was also real. You should watch the speech if you can; it was taped by C-SPAN. I can't do it justice here.
After the town hall meeting, I went back to the off-site volunteer office and canvassed with an interesting guy from D.C. named Micheal (sic). We went to probably 25 doors before it got dark, dropped off tapes of the Diane Sawyer interview, and talked to about 10 people -- several of whom were strong Dean supporters. Afterwards, I came back to the state office and did some voter ID calls, inviting people to events.
They need me to unload videos from a van... more later.
Today was in almost every way an ideal day. All day, positivity and optimism surrounded me. Dr. Dean himself said that tracking polls were definitely going in the right direction and that we were the only campaign moving at all.
I started the day in a much better state, after having hung out with several other volunteers and slept in an actual bed. This morning, I was lucky enough to see a town hall meeting conducted by the Doctors Dean at SNHU, which you should watch if you can (it was taped by C-SPAN). The place was packed -- I arrived 15 minutes before it was scheduled to start, and the overflow room was overflowing. Before the Deans spoke, they actually came out to the overflow room first for a quick introduction (which was an extremely thoughtful gesture to the folks in that room). After a fine introduction by Judy in the main room, Howard proceeded by, simply, inspiring. He was presidential, but he was also real. You should watch the speech if you can; it was taped by C-SPAN. I can't do it justice here.
After the town hall meeting, I went back to the off-site volunteer office and canvassed with an interesting guy from D.C. named Micheal (sic). We went to probably 25 doors before it got dark, dropped off tapes of the Diane Sawyer interview, and talked to about 10 people -- several of whom were strong Dean supporters. Afterwards, I came back to the state office and did some voter ID calls, inviting people to events.
They need me to unload videos from a van... more later.
Time’s Arrow Points To You
I saw something yesterday, on the streets of my home town, that chilled me to my bones.
It was an old VW bug, painted pink, with a pig’s snout and ears welded to the hood. On the side was painted “Pink Floyd,” with the logo from their “Dark Side of the Moon” on it, the triangular crystal refracting a rainbow. No big deal, until I looked at the driver. His hair was white, and his white beard hung down to his chest. He wasn’t the owner’s father. He was the car’s builder.
Here in the middle of life, or a campaign, we can easily forget Time’s Arrow, or where it points for all of us. But figure the driver for 60. He was 30 when he made that car.
Then look around at this election. John Kerry defines himself as a Vietnam Veteran, Wesley Clark was a captain in that conflict. Even Governor Dean was seared by it, cheered to declared 1-Y for the draft after Kerry threw his medals away, and his good brother Charlie dead in Laos.
All that was all 30 years ago, and more. Kerry’s defining himself by Vietnam is like a Progressive in 1904 wearing his Civil War medal. Salute, but it’s irrelevant. “[Vietnam] is young people dying for the wrong reasons, because leaders don't do the things that they should to protect them. Yes I do [see a parallel with Iraq].”
He’s living in the past. Maybe we all are.
James MacGregor Burns writes in his book “Transforming Leadership” that two points mark a Transformative Leader, the kind of leader we all see in Governor Dean.
First, a movement arises around him that he did not create. (Check.)
Second, leaders emerge from within that movement.
Win or lose in New Hampshire, it is time for Phase Two to commence.
I think Anna Topia would make a great Congresswoman from Texas. I do. She’s old enough to run, by her own admission. Maybe, in 2004, she’d be swamped, perhaps even in the primary. But she would learn, and grow. She could try again, and win.
Aziz could be a Senator, and Jason a Mayor. Matt B. could be whatever he wants to be. Christopher, Amanda, name your position and go for it. Maybe you, dear reader, should be considering a run for City Council, or School Board. When Jimmy Carter ran for re-election in 1980, young Dr. Howard Dean licked envelopes.
Don’t look my way, though. I’m 49. I like naps, I’ve got high blood pressure, and I’ve always been more of a a Tom Paine-in-the-neck than a Jefferson. But I’ll be here on the sidelines, cheering you all on.
Let the last words here be Burns’.
"Can we, in coming decades, mobilize throughout the world a new, militant, but peaceful army -- tens of thousands of leaders who would in turn recruit fresh leaders at the grass roots, in villages and neighborhoods, from among the poor themselves, to fight and win a worldwide war against desperation?"
It’s your time now.
It was an old VW bug, painted pink, with a pig’s snout and ears welded to the hood. On the side was painted “Pink Floyd,” with the logo from their “Dark Side of the Moon” on it, the triangular crystal refracting a rainbow. No big deal, until I looked at the driver. His hair was white, and his white beard hung down to his chest. He wasn’t the owner’s father. He was the car’s builder.
Here in the middle of life, or a campaign, we can easily forget Time’s Arrow, or where it points for all of us. But figure the driver for 60. He was 30 when he made that car.
Then look around at this election. John Kerry defines himself as a Vietnam Veteran, Wesley Clark was a captain in that conflict. Even Governor Dean was seared by it, cheered to declared 1-Y for the draft after Kerry threw his medals away, and his good brother Charlie dead in Laos.
All that was all 30 years ago, and more. Kerry’s defining himself by Vietnam is like a Progressive in 1904 wearing his Civil War medal. Salute, but it’s irrelevant. “[Vietnam] is young people dying for the wrong reasons, because leaders don't do the things that they should to protect them. Yes I do [see a parallel with Iraq].”
He’s living in the past. Maybe we all are.
James MacGregor Burns writes in his book “Transforming Leadership” that two points mark a Transformative Leader, the kind of leader we all see in Governor Dean.
First, a movement arises around him that he did not create. (Check.)
Second, leaders emerge from within that movement.
Win or lose in New Hampshire, it is time for Phase Two to commence.
I think Anna Topia would make a great Congresswoman from Texas. I do. She’s old enough to run, by her own admission. Maybe, in 2004, she’d be swamped, perhaps even in the primary. But she would learn, and grow. She could try again, and win.
Aziz could be a Senator, and Jason a Mayor. Matt B. could be whatever he wants to be. Christopher, Amanda, name your position and go for it. Maybe you, dear reader, should be considering a run for City Council, or School Board. When Jimmy Carter ran for re-election in 1980, young Dr. Howard Dean licked envelopes.
Don’t look my way, though. I’m 49. I like naps, I’ve got high blood pressure, and I’ve always been more of a a Tom Paine-in-the-neck than a Jefferson. But I’ll be here on the sidelines, cheering you all on.
Let the last words here be Burns’.
"Can we, in coming decades, mobilize throughout the world a new, militant, but peaceful army -- tens of thousands of leaders who would in turn recruit fresh leaders at the grass roots, in villages and neighborhoods, from among the poor themselves, to fight and win a worldwide war against desperation?"
It’s your time now.
Kerry Goes Negative http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20040125/pl_nm/campaign_kerry_dc_1
Apparently the Kerry camp is sensing what the rest of us are... Dean is making a comeback in New Hampshire. Today, Kerry accused Gov. Dean of "flip-flops" on taxes and foreign policy. Umm... Senator Kerry, are we doing a little projecting here?
Howard Dean stood up to George Bush's unilateral action in Iraq - Senator Kerry voted for it, but then voted against the $87 billion to fund it, and has spent the entire campaign trying to explain his positions on the issue...
On the economy, Howard Dean says we need a balanced budget and the only way to get back on track is to repeal the "Bush Tax" - Bush's ill-advised tax cuts for the wealthy in this country. Senator Kerry says we need tax cuts, and by the way, we're going to fund education, provide more health care, etc., etc.
I'm not saying those aren't good goals, but the reality is that Dean is the only candidate with the courage to say there's no free ride. We've all got to pitch in to get the economy and the budget back on track. Dean has been extremely consistent in his positions during the campaign - it's the others who have shifted to try to appeal to Dean's supporters. Nice try, Senator Kerry, but it won't wash.
Howard Dean stood up to George Bush's unilateral action in Iraq - Senator Kerry voted for it, but then voted against the $87 billion to fund it, and has spent the entire campaign trying to explain his positions on the issue...
On the economy, Howard Dean says we need a balanced budget and the only way to get back on track is to repeal the "Bush Tax" - Bush's ill-advised tax cuts for the wealthy in this country. Senator Kerry says we need tax cuts, and by the way, we're going to fund education, provide more health care, etc., etc.
I'm not saying those aren't good goals, but the reality is that Dean is the only candidate with the courage to say there's no free ride. We've all got to pitch in to get the economy and the budget back on track. Dean has been extremely consistent in his positions during the campaign - it's the others who have shifted to try to appeal to Dean's supporters. Nice try, Senator Kerry, but it won't wash.
German Trial Hears How Iranian Agent Warned US of Impending al-Qaida Attack http://www.guardian.co.uk/september11/story/0,11209,1130338,00.html
This guy was a surprise witness at the trial of an al-Qaida operative. This is breaking news. Here are the money quotes:
The United States was warned of impending September 11 terrorist attacks by an Iranian spy, but ignored him, German secret service agents testified yesterday in the trial of an alleged al-Qaida terrorist.
The spy, identified as Hamid Reza Zakeri, tried to warn the CIA after leaving Iran in 2001, but was not believed, two German officers who interviewed him told the Hamburg court...
...The testimony at the Hamburg trial could heap more embarrassment on the US state department and secret services, which have denied allegations that they were forewarned of the attacks.
The White House and US intelligence agencies have been plagued by accusations of a catastrophic failure since the four planes were hijacked to such devastating effect in 2001.
***************************************
Allow me to begin the embarrassment-heaping process. Dean has been castigated in the press for his December 1 statement on the Diane Rehm public radio show speculating that the Bush administration may have been forewarned about the 9/11 attacks. I remember thinking back then that sooner or later the truth would come out and Dean would look like a prophet. Well, somebody get the guy a laurel wreath, because he's a-prophesizing. Dean does not need to back off of the antiwar platform – he needs to wait calmly as the chickens come home to roost for Dubya. And not too many chickens can roost on a Shrub.
You can find the Diane Rehm interview here:
http://www.wamu.org/dr/2003/drarc_031201.html#monday
(Can't figure out how to make this a hyperlink).
Conan Dean Carey
PhD Candidate, Japanese Literature
Tabling Coordinator, Stanford Students for Howard Dean
The United States was warned of impending September 11 terrorist attacks by an Iranian spy, but ignored him, German secret service agents testified yesterday in the trial of an alleged al-Qaida terrorist.
The spy, identified as Hamid Reza Zakeri, tried to warn the CIA after leaving Iran in 2001, but was not believed, two German officers who interviewed him told the Hamburg court...
...The testimony at the Hamburg trial could heap more embarrassment on the US state department and secret services, which have denied allegations that they were forewarned of the attacks.
The White House and US intelligence agencies have been plagued by accusations of a catastrophic failure since the four planes were hijacked to such devastating effect in 2001.
***************************************
Allow me to begin the embarrassment-heaping process. Dean has been castigated in the press for his December 1 statement on the Diane Rehm public radio show speculating that the Bush administration may have been forewarned about the 9/11 attacks. I remember thinking back then that sooner or later the truth would come out and Dean would look like a prophet. Well, somebody get the guy a laurel wreath, because he's a-prophesizing. Dean does not need to back off of the antiwar platform – he needs to wait calmly as the chickens come home to roost for Dubya. And not too many chickens can roost on a Shrub.
You can find the Diane Rehm interview here:
http://www.wamu.org/dr/2003/drarc_031201.html#monday
(Can't figure out how to make this a hyperlink).
Conan Dean Carey
PhD Candidate, Japanese Literature
Tabling Coordinator, Stanford Students for Howard Dean
Americans Love An Underdog http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/1/25/164234/982
Today, two days before the New Hampshire primary, every poll shows our campaign trailing that of Senator John Kerry.
The margin is anywhere from a few points to dozens. Some say we have momentum. Others say we've got nothing.
But know this.
Americans love the underdog. We don't root for Goliath, even when we're Goliath. We root for the scrappy little guy. We relish the comeback. It's in our nature.
Americans like to see the little guy come off the deck and hit the big guy in the chin. It's when everyone says you can't that Americans say you can.
It's always been that way. Especially in New Hampshire.
George W. Bush didn't win the New Hampshire primary. John McCain did. Bill Clinton didn't win it. Paul Tsongas did. Even crazy Pat Buchanan pulled a New Hampshire surprise.
So why the long faces? Our candidate is doing everything right, and has been since Thursday. Our people are working hard. Our support is committed. We have been running to the right of Kerry all week -- all we need to do is get his less-committed supporters to notice.
And even a strong second place puts us in decent shape heading South, where Kerry has less organization. Assuming, as some polls indicate, it's Wesley Clark who New Hampshire voters are about to throw under the bus, we have yet-another growth opportunity, because (as some of my friends have been pointing out), Clark's campaign has been doing some good things with software lately.
So repeat after me. There's no need to fear, Underdog is here.
RNC thugs in Iowa, and how Kerry handed us our a**... http://www.woi-tv.com/Global/story.asp?S=1607003&nav=1LFXKHOc
One final brain dump about Iowa and then I'm done. The reason I waited until today to write this up is I was hoping someone would post the video from the Drake University event last Saturday in Des Moines. Since the video is still forthcoming, I guess I'll have to spill and hope whomever has it releases it later.
What am I talking about? Go click on the article above and read all about it. The RNC sent thugs to Iowa to disrupt our events. At the Drake University event, the RNC thugs stormed the event holding large Bush/Cheney04 signs and chanting "4 more years". A shoving match ensued and eventually they were driven from the room when everyone sang "The Star Spangled Banner" in unison.
Why all the fuss over a candidate that poses "no threat" to Bush? Because they don't know how to beat us. There are several conventional ways to attack the two Johns, the General, and the other candidates. And can those candidates stir up the kind of grassroots passion that will drive our GOTV efforts this fall?
On Sunday I got to watch the ten minute video of what transpired at Drake University. I don't know who took the video or where it is now, but someone out there has the footage and hopefully it'll be floating around the 'net soon. Everyone needs to see the kind of tactics these thugs are employing. For the good of the entire party all Democratic supporters need to know how far they'll go to beat us.
Now on to Senator Kerry. I really need to give him props (as we all should) for building a super stealth field organisation that kicked our butts in Iowa. This article credits Michael Whouley, longtime Democratic activist. Props to Mr Whouley. I'm glad he's on the Democratic side. Anyway. Whouley built the network, and got Kerry people into the important positions of leading the many of the precinct caucuses. This is where we blew it. We sent inexperiences newbies up against trained field operatives. On top of that, we tried to play nice and they didn't. The Kerry and Edwards people ran the show. They sat undecideds between the Kerry & Edwards groups and relegated us to the other side of the room. They planted their own supporters among the undecideds and were able to sway them. The Edwards people even came with their own attack packets which included smears against Dean and the others, and they used these arguments to sway undecideds. Mr Positive, yea okay. Anyway, the point being that when it came to the caucuses, these two were better prepared and we weren't. Our volunteers weren't up to speed, and there was random talk of overselling the Iowans, and it simply failed us.
This is why I was so upset when I came back from Iowa. I felt we could have done a much better job of being prepared. We should have trained harder, screened our phone lists better, and we should have prepared for dirty tricks. And above all, we did not need to go negative for those last few weeks. Gephardt/Dean took each other down a few notches.
But we can do better.
Apparently the field organisation in New Hampshire is much better than they were in Iowa. Based on the new ads, it seems our ads folks have learned their lesson. It also seems that the New Hampshire volunteers are better prepared as well, and above all, this is a primary. One person, one vote. How do I think we'll fare in New Hampshire. Well honestly, I think we need to prepare ourselves for a second or third place finish. I don't think we have enough time to catch Kerry, but the polls seem to indicate a slight recovery for us. The media blitz bounce is finally showing up, and things don't look so bad right now. Just remember that we have the resources to fight another day. We need to be thinking about Feb 3.
I'm anticipating a decent showing on Tuesday. But I also want everyone here to anticipate a media Gore-ing of us if we don't place first. Please get your pens and emails ready, because we are going to have to push back no matter what happens. I was serious the other day when I said the media was not our friend, so please get ready to write some letters/emails on Wednesday.
Here's a list of addresses for all the major media outlets (culled from the comments section over on Counterspin):
Thanks for letting me ramble on. I still had all these things on my mind and getting them out seems to help. I still believe we can win the nomination, and I hope that you have not lost faith. Ignore the trolls that keep dumping on this board. They want to dance on our grave, but we're not dead yet.
What am I talking about? Go click on the article above and read all about it. The RNC sent thugs to Iowa to disrupt our events. At the Drake University event, the RNC thugs stormed the event holding large Bush/Cheney04 signs and chanting "4 more years". A shoving match ensued and eventually they were driven from the room when everyone sang "The Star Spangled Banner" in unison.
Why all the fuss over a candidate that poses "no threat" to Bush? Because they don't know how to beat us. There are several conventional ways to attack the two Johns, the General, and the other candidates. And can those candidates stir up the kind of grassroots passion that will drive our GOTV efforts this fall?
On Sunday I got to watch the ten minute video of what transpired at Drake University. I don't know who took the video or where it is now, but someone out there has the footage and hopefully it'll be floating around the 'net soon. Everyone needs to see the kind of tactics these thugs are employing. For the good of the entire party all Democratic supporters need to know how far they'll go to beat us.
Now on to Senator Kerry. I really need to give him props (as we all should) for building a super stealth field organisation that kicked our butts in Iowa. This article credits Michael Whouley, longtime Democratic activist. Props to Mr Whouley. I'm glad he's on the Democratic side. Anyway. Whouley built the network, and got Kerry people into the important positions of leading the many of the precinct caucuses. This is where we blew it. We sent inexperiences newbies up against trained field operatives. On top of that, we tried to play nice and they didn't. The Kerry and Edwards people ran the show. They sat undecideds between the Kerry & Edwards groups and relegated us to the other side of the room. They planted their own supporters among the undecideds and were able to sway them. The Edwards people even came with their own attack packets which included smears against Dean and the others, and they used these arguments to sway undecideds. Mr Positive, yea okay. Anyway, the point being that when it came to the caucuses, these two were better prepared and we weren't. Our volunteers weren't up to speed, and there was random talk of overselling the Iowans, and it simply failed us.
This is why I was so upset when I came back from Iowa. I felt we could have done a much better job of being prepared. We should have trained harder, screened our phone lists better, and we should have prepared for dirty tricks. And above all, we did not need to go negative for those last few weeks. Gephardt/Dean took each other down a few notches.
But we can do better.
Apparently the field organisation in New Hampshire is much better than they were in Iowa. Based on the new ads, it seems our ads folks have learned their lesson. It also seems that the New Hampshire volunteers are better prepared as well, and above all, this is a primary. One person, one vote. How do I think we'll fare in New Hampshire. Well honestly, I think we need to prepare ourselves for a second or third place finish. I don't think we have enough time to catch Kerry, but the polls seem to indicate a slight recovery for us. The media blitz bounce is finally showing up, and things don't look so bad right now. Just remember that we have the resources to fight another day. We need to be thinking about Feb 3.
I'm anticipating a decent showing on Tuesday. But I also want everyone here to anticipate a media Gore-ing of us if we don't place first. Please get your pens and emails ready, because we are going to have to push back no matter what happens. I was serious the other day when I said the media was not our friend, so please get ready to write some letters/emails on Wednesday.
Here's a list of addresses for all the major media outlets (culled from the comments section over on Counterspin):
evening@cbsnews.com
nightly@nbc.com
mtp@nbc.com
nightline@abcnews.com
info@ap.org
atc@npr.org
onlinenewshour@newshour.org
Thanks for letting me ramble on. I still had all these things on my mind and getting them out seems to help. I still believe we can win the nomination, and I hope that you have not lost faith. Ignore the trolls that keep dumping on this board. They want to dance on our grave, but we're not dead yet.
Saturday, January 24, 2004
New Hampshire Part II
The New Hampshire campaign is vibrant, hopeful, and chaotic--and may very well propel us to victory on Tuesday.
One travel day and one full volunteering day later, I am at the center of things in Manchester. Saturday started encouragingly, with excellent message and canvass training from David Bringer and other organizers in Manchester. David's open Q & A was very informative and encouraging. My last-minute arrival made it difficult for me to find a place to go (provisionally, California volunteers were assigned to Keene, NH); however, I spent much of the day performing odd tasks at the volunteer staging office in Manchester (accompanied by many extremely nice people from SEIU Local 1199 and others from Rochester, NY). After reporting back to the main field office in the evening, I felt much more productive, calling supporters and undecided voters to persuade them to vote for Dean on Tuesday and to invite them to see Governor Dean and Dr. Judy Dean's town meeting at the Southern New Hampshire University's Hospitality Center at 9:30 Sunday morning. [Everyone is invited!]
I managed to meet and talk to many very nice, very committed, very real people. Howard is truly people-powered, and I can't imagine that any of the other candidates has as amazing a base of supporters as Dean.
I'm heading off to a place called "Creative Classroom" to stay tonight--undoubtedly an improvement over the Manchester Y. I anticipate a highly productive day tomorrow.
Being in the thick of things, I'm completely insulated from whatever might have appeared in the media in the last 48 hours. Heading out now... more tomorrow.
One travel day and one full volunteering day later, I am at the center of things in Manchester. Saturday started encouragingly, with excellent message and canvass training from David Bringer and other organizers in Manchester. David's open Q & A was very informative and encouraging. My last-minute arrival made it difficult for me to find a place to go (provisionally, California volunteers were assigned to Keene, NH); however, I spent much of the day performing odd tasks at the volunteer staging office in Manchester (accompanied by many extremely nice people from SEIU Local 1199 and others from Rochester, NY). After reporting back to the main field office in the evening, I felt much more productive, calling supporters and undecided voters to persuade them to vote for Dean on Tuesday and to invite them to see Governor Dean and Dr. Judy Dean's town meeting at the Southern New Hampshire University's Hospitality Center at 9:30 Sunday morning. [Everyone is invited!]
I managed to meet and talk to many very nice, very committed, very real people. Howard is truly people-powered, and I can't imagine that any of the other candidates has as amazing a base of supporters as Dean.
I'm heading off to a place called "Creative Classroom" to stay tonight--undoubtedly an improvement over the Manchester Y. I anticipate a highly productive day tomorrow.
Being in the thick of things, I'm completely insulated from whatever might have appeared in the media in the last 48 hours. Heading out now... more tomorrow.
Sounds Like Someone Just Made Our Mistake http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/01/23/60minutes/main595431.shtml
Our mistake, to hear the pundits tell it, was to go negative, specifically on Dick Gephardt in Iowa.
As a result, caucus-goers went for more "positive" candidates, Kerry and Edwards.
This sounds pretty negative to me.
"That's the first time I have heard a general be so dismissive of lieutenants, who bleed a lot in wars."
That's John Kerry (who served as a lieutenant in Vietnam) on Wesley Clark (who rose to the rank of general, but was still a captain in Vietnam). Kerry continued:
"[Vietnam] is young people dying for the wrong reasons, because leaders don't do the things that they should to protect them. Yes I do [see a parallel with Iraq]. This president breached faith with the lesson...we learned in Vietnam. You truly should go to war as a matter of last resort. This president rushed to war without a plan to win the peace."
Sounds like someone losing their temper to me. Does it sound like that to you?
It also makes you wonder about the judgement of a more mature John Kerry, who voted in 2002 for the Iraq version of a Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, doesn't it? It further makes you ask again who opposed the war from the start. (The answer to that you know...Dr. Howard Dean.)
All this Sunday on "60 Minutes." And two days for all that to sink in before New Hampshire votes.
The Beauty Of Low Expectations
I could be wrong, or this could be setting up nicely.
Expectations for the Dean campaign in New Hampshire have hit rock-bottom. A three-day average of tracking polls (Wednesday-Friday) shows Kerry with his biggest leads yet. Some even show our man in third, behind General Clark.
Some liberal pundits, notably Eleanor Clift, have already written Dean off because of “The Scream,” even though she was personally in the room and didn’t think it bad at the time.
But consider. Dean had a great day Thursday. New Hampshireites now have to consider a vote for Kerry as anointing him the nominee. Republicans are focusing their attention on him. He is trying to run out the clock.
It could be the big crowds now at Dean events are like groupies at a band’s farewell tour. I haven’t surveyed where they’re from. Or it could be that New Hampshireites are re-evaluating a man who is, after all, their neighbor and who they did, after all, say they supported until a few weeks ago.
Right now the national media is setting up the equivalent of “high jump bars” at the New Hampshire finish line. Lieberman needs to get into double-digits, at least, and finish third. Clark needs to beat Lieberman and Edwards. Dean only needs to beat Clark. Kerry needs to win, and win big.
The hurdles are being set with the expectation that, on Wednesday, the media will all be writing about John Edwards. His expectations are absurdly low, the next week’s contests favor his home base of North Carolina.
But, as I said, they are also being set low for us. A 28-22 loss, a solid second place, would have looked like disaster a week ago. Now it looks delicious. Anything better, it gets better still.
It is good to have the press write your obituary. It was good for Kerry, after his “motorcycle” appearance on Leno. It was good for Edwards. It can be very, very good for us.
Figure there will be 150,000 New Hampshire primary voters, which is optimistic. Can we get 50,000 of them, including independents, voters who don’t want the game to end in Kerry’s favor (as they didn’t want it to end for us a week ago), conservative Democrats (who heard a pretty conservative Dean in the debate). There’s less room for our troops to be out-manuevered as there were in the caucus. Voters show up, vote, and leave – eazy-peazy.
This is not a bad place to be. We’re desperate. We need to do something NOW. But we have the troops, we have a calmer candidate, we have a chance.
All we ever wanted was a chance.
Daily Review
Dean Touts Strength Of His Convictions
A Livelier Dean Speaks Out, but in a Reassuring Mode
Dean is best candidate for the White House
Voters Search for Virtue in Dean's Faults
Is There a Doctor in the House
Dean Draws
Supportive Crowds
Stand by your man '04
Primetime Dean
A Livelier Dean Speaks Out, but in a Reassuring Mode
Dean is best candidate for the White House
Voters Search for Virtue in Dean's Faults
Is There a Doctor in the House
Dean Draws
Supportive Crowds
Stand by your man '04
Primetime Dean
Friday, January 23, 2004
New Poll http://www.americanresearchgroup/nhpoll/demtrack
The bad news is that Dean fell a bit...
Kerry - 34%
Clark - 19%
Dean - 15%
Lieberman - 6%
The good news is that if commenters on Daily Kos threads like this one are right, this drop is the result of losing a high Tuesday number, and today's result is actually higher than yesterday's. You can decide how much faith to place in one-day totals, but these are grounds for optimism. All February 3 results, of course, will be affected by New Hampshire.
Kerry - 34%
Clark - 19%
Dean - 15%
Lieberman - 6%
The good news is that if commenters on Daily Kos threads like this one are right, this drop is the result of losing a high Tuesday number, and today's result is actually higher than yesterday's. You can decide how much faith to place in one-day totals, but these are grounds for optimism. All February 3 results, of course, will be affected by New Hampshire.
Please Judy, Please...
It sure would be neato if Judy Steinberg Dean pops up on the Sunday talk show circuit this weekend. All indications seem to show that her presence softens Dean's image and keeps him front and center. What a funny twist of late: Kerry dwarfed by the media because Dean is more interesting than Kerry's so-called message. Continuing to throw the Judy Dean bone out the back door for the big media dog will keep them from barking too. The feeling I got from the spin room at the debate in New Hampshire last night was that they all feel a little bad about the "hazing" of Howard Dean. Not all of them are yapping about their handling.
If I owned a media company other than DeanTV, or was trying to build a compelling story to sell ads and build a viewership/readership, I'd certainly be interested in building Dean back up for South Carolina. After all, it seems like the ratings dip every time Kerry starts to ramble on in the Senate, I mean, on the campaign trail. What a boring Presidential election that will be for the media party. At least with a Dean nominee one can get around him on the airplane. He may not serve Grey Poupon like John, but I'm confident Dean would keep it fun--the same way he's made politics fun for young people again.
This morning Dean continued to struggle with a cold. His voice is hoarse, low, and cracking but that tear-jerking determination of a man who's fighting for us even after being clipped is as strong as ever.
Here's a video clip of a lady who wanted to talk about Judy if you have time to check it out. When all is said and done in NH it will be interesting to see the gender breakdown:
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From the DeanTV "Fairly Balanced" Network; where we encourage everyone to engage the media in any way you can. (Londonderry, NH 1-23-04).
New Hampshire Voters Return to Dean http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/mmedia/politics/012304-2v.htm
This is being noted on the O-Blog. It's worth a watch.
Dean Draws Appreciative Looks in New Hampshire http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040123/ap_on_el_pr/dean_34
Howard Dean is getting a second look from New Hampshire voters who a week ago had written his campaign off following the Iowa Caucuses, according to a new AP report from Ron Fournier:
"When we saw him up their shouting and yelling, it put a lot of us on the fence. There's not a lot of difference between these guys so it doesn't take a lot to move us from one to another," said Ed Hennessy, 58, a retired union worker in Nashua, N.H., who deserted Dean last week.
"But I'm back in his camp. It was just a slip of the tongue, and nobody's perfect," Hennessy said. "I've got to give him credit for speaking from his heart."
"I think we've turned the corner and we're going to come back up, and the question is can we close the gap between now and Tuesday," Dean said, though it's too early for polls to reflect opinions after the debate.
Lindley-Soucy, cradling her baby at a Dean event, was not a supporter, certainly not immediately after Iowa. Suddenly, she's curious.
"He comes across as honest, even when it hurts," she said.
Fields, 66, a mental health counselor from Londonderry, said the media has made too much of the speech, a sentiment echoed by others.
"I think he was too tame to tell you the truth. I hope he doesn't back down," she said.
Gloria Kelley, 53, a union worker who attended one of his events, said she still has her doubts about Dean.
"He was over the top, wasn't he? It makes you wonder about his judgment," she said. Then a smile crept across her face, and she said, "I think I'll give him a second look, if the media doesn't mind."
"When we saw him up their shouting and yelling, it put a lot of us on the fence. There's not a lot of difference between these guys so it doesn't take a lot to move us from one to another," said Ed Hennessy, 58, a retired union worker in Nashua, N.H., who deserted Dean last week.
"But I'm back in his camp. It was just a slip of the tongue, and nobody's perfect," Hennessy said. "I've got to give him credit for speaking from his heart."
"I think we've turned the corner and we're going to come back up, and the question is can we close the gap between now and Tuesday," Dean said, though it's too early for polls to reflect opinions after the debate.
Lindley-Soucy, cradling her baby at a Dean event, was not a supporter, certainly not immediately after Iowa. Suddenly, she's curious.
"He comes across as honest, even when it hurts," she said.
Fields, 66, a mental health counselor from Londonderry, said the media has made too much of the speech, a sentiment echoed by others.
"I think he was too tame to tell you the truth. I hope he doesn't back down," she said.
Gloria Kelley, 53, a union worker who attended one of his events, said she still has her doubts about Dean.
"He was over the top, wasn't he? It makes you wonder about his judgment," she said. Then a smile crept across her face, and she said, "I think I'll give him a second look, if the media doesn't mind."
Dean says Greenspan should go http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3424599.stm
Here's something long overdue. Granted, Kucinich also expressed the same opinion in the debate, but Dean can raise the profile of Greenspan's performance far more effectively:
"I think Alan Greenspan has become too political," [Dean] said.
Dean added: "If he lacks the political courage to criticise the deficits, if he was foolish enough - and he is not a foolish man - to support the outrageous tax cuts that George Bush put through, then he has become too political and we need a new chairman of the Federal Reserve."
Passion http://abcnews.go.com/sections/Primetime/US/howard_judy_dean_transcript_040122.html
“Being in love with somebody is a terrific thing, but if you only marry somebody because they're in love … you're in love with them.That's why the divorce rate is 50 percent” -- Dr. Howard Dean
We Dean People feel passionate about our candidate. We are in love, many of us for the first time.
But you can’t make a real relationship out of passion, and that’s what most Americans want with their President, a relationship. We want to believe we can trust the President. So ordinary men remake themselves to win this trust, and the result is the usual phony politician.
Dean is trying to remake himself without changing himself, which is good. But while many pundits lay the current problem in the polls on his shoulders, and many others lay it on Trippi or the ad staff, I want to lay it somewhere else.
I’m going to lay it on us.
A lot of people are being turned-off by what we’re doing, and by the passion with which we’re doing it. Like lovers, we want it very badly, maybe too badly. And the more ardently we press our case, with letters, e-mails, home visits, phone calls, the less we look like a political movement and the more we look like a cult.
Right now no one believes in us, except for Dr. Dean and the people in Burlington. But if we’re going to make a comeback in New Hampshire, we have to go through many of the changes the Doctor himself has seemed to go through these last few days.
I mentioned some of those changes earlier today. We need to trust the people again. In our cynical age that’s tough, especially when we feel spurned by them, as we felt spurned by the people in Iowa. But in a democracy, trust in the people is the only path to success.
We have a weekend to turn things around, to present a different face to the people of New Hampshire. We need to be more comfortable with ourselves, and what we believe in. We need to make many more people comfortable with us, and with our candidate again.
Don’t blame the press. Don’t blame the candidate. Don’t blame the campaign. Don’t blame the pundits.
If you want to make people perceive us differently, look in the mirror. You want a relationship with other voters, a trusting, honest relationship. You don’t need them to fall in love with you, or with Howard Dean. So don’t beg, don’t whine, don’t believe just in money or ads or shoe leather.
Instead, believe in yourself. Testify. That’s what you need to do this weekend, testify. Testify to your faith in yourself, in your ideals, in your country, and in your fellow citizens. You have the power to do that.
You won’t change everyone. You won’t change most people. But perhaps, with faith, you can change enough opinions to make a difference, and make Howard Dean into The Next Comeback Kid.
We Dean People feel passionate about our candidate. We are in love, many of us for the first time.
But you can’t make a real relationship out of passion, and that’s what most Americans want with their President, a relationship. We want to believe we can trust the President. So ordinary men remake themselves to win this trust, and the result is the usual phony politician.
Dean is trying to remake himself without changing himself, which is good. But while many pundits lay the current problem in the polls on his shoulders, and many others lay it on Trippi or the ad staff, I want to lay it somewhere else.
I’m going to lay it on us.
A lot of people are being turned-off by what we’re doing, and by the passion with which we’re doing it. Like lovers, we want it very badly, maybe too badly. And the more ardently we press our case, with letters, e-mails, home visits, phone calls, the less we look like a political movement and the more we look like a cult.
Right now no one believes in us, except for Dr. Dean and the people in Burlington. But if we’re going to make a comeback in New Hampshire, we have to go through many of the changes the Doctor himself has seemed to go through these last few days.
I mentioned some of those changes earlier today. We need to trust the people again. In our cynical age that’s tough, especially when we feel spurned by them, as we felt spurned by the people in Iowa. But in a democracy, trust in the people is the only path to success.
We have a weekend to turn things around, to present a different face to the people of New Hampshire. We need to be more comfortable with ourselves, and what we believe in. We need to make many more people comfortable with us, and with our candidate again.
Don’t blame the press. Don’t blame the candidate. Don’t blame the campaign. Don’t blame the pundits.
If you want to make people perceive us differently, look in the mirror. You want a relationship with other voters, a trusting, honest relationship. You don’t need them to fall in love with you, or with Howard Dean. So don’t beg, don’t whine, don’t believe just in money or ads or shoe leather.
Instead, believe in yourself. Testify. That’s what you need to do this weekend, testify. Testify to your faith in yourself, in your ideals, in your country, and in your fellow citizens. You have the power to do that.
You won’t change everyone. You won’t change most people. But perhaps, with faith, you can change enough opinions to make a difference, and make Howard Dean into The Next Comeback Kid.
I Have a Huge Amount of Respect for Voters http://abcnews.go.com/sections/Primetime/US/howard_judy_dean_transcript_040122.html
“They're going to do whatever they do and I'm going to accept their verdict because that's how democracy works. And then the day after New Hampshire, we're going to go to South Carolina and Oklahoma and Arizona and New Mexico.”
On Howard Dean’s big “Comeback Night” this is the line I thought we needed most to hear again.
It came near the end of the Diane Sawyer interview. I think it defines what went wrong, and what still may be wrong with Dean Nation.
Persuasion is seduction. You’re trying to sell to cynical customers. I think many people failed to take “yes” for an answer in Iowa, and some may be failing today to take “no” for an answer in New Hampshire.
If you’re working on the campaign this weekend, you’re a salesman. The best say the product sells itself. Howard Dean proved again last night he is his own best salesman. You need to trust that, but also trust your customers as well. Don’t argue. Smile. Listen. As in Dean’s “Top 10” list last night, switch to decaf.
Even with his big Iowa bump, John Kerry didn’t get far ahead of us. Now we’ve gotten a bump. On Tuesday, I think, Howard Dean will be the Comeback Kid.
But as we work toward that moment, and the moments to come a week later, you’ve got to have faith that the voters will see what we’re selling, compare it to what else is on the Democratic shelf, and make the right choice. And if they don’t, we also have to respect that choice.
On Howard Dean’s big “Comeback Night” this is the line I thought we needed most to hear again.
It came near the end of the Diane Sawyer interview. I think it defines what went wrong, and what still may be wrong with Dean Nation.
Persuasion is seduction. You’re trying to sell to cynical customers. I think many people failed to take “yes” for an answer in Iowa, and some may be failing today to take “no” for an answer in New Hampshire.
If you’re working on the campaign this weekend, you’re a salesman. The best say the product sells itself. Howard Dean proved again last night he is his own best salesman. You need to trust that, but also trust your customers as well. Don’t argue. Smile. Listen. As in Dean’s “Top 10” list last night, switch to decaf.
Even with his big Iowa bump, John Kerry didn’t get far ahead of us. Now we’ve gotten a bump. On Tuesday, I think, Howard Dean will be the Comeback Kid.
But as we work toward that moment, and the moments to come a week later, you’ve got to have faith that the voters will see what we’re selling, compare it to what else is on the Democratic shelf, and make the right choice. And if they don’t, we also have to respect that choice.
transcript: New Hampshire Presidential Debate http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A39875-2004Jan22.html?nav=hptop_ts
There's quite a lot of ground covered here, but what caught my attention was at the beginning, where Peter Jennings asks Kerry and then Dean about how they would respond to the inevitable GOP portrayal of them as tax-raising liberal fanatics. After Kerry answered, it was Dean's turn:
Since Gephardt is out of the race, Dean is the only one left to make this argument, and he's absolutely right. He didn't mention any payroll tax cut issue in his response, but that's likely because he is waiting for the President's budget so the Dean plan can have solid numbers to compare against.
The other part that drew my interest was (of course) Sen. Edwards' response to the question about Islam. I frankly didn't have a problem with it - it's discussed in more detail over at UNMEDIA and I invite anyone who is interested to visit to discuss.
I'm going to take a different position than everybody. I think we ought to get rid of the whole Bush tax cut, and here's why: There was no middle-class tax cut.
Sixty percent of us got $304. Has your property tax gone up more than $304 because the president cut cops on the beat, refused to fund special education, refused to fund No Child Left Behind? How about your college tuition? Has that gone up more that $304 because the president cut 84,000 kids off Pell Grants in order to pay for the tax cuts for people like Ken Lay?
DEAN: Your health care, has that gone up because the president cut 500,000 kids off health care?
There was no middle-class tax cut in this country. Somebody has to stand up and say, we cannot have everything. We can't have tax cuts, pay for health care, pay for No Child Left Behind and pay for an adequate defense.
I believe we ought to have balanced budgets. I've done it 12 times. That is the real issue in this campaign. The future health of this country depends on a balanced budget. And we've got to start telling the truth and stop making promises.
Since Gephardt is out of the race, Dean is the only one left to make this argument, and he's absolutely right. He didn't mention any payroll tax cut issue in his response, but that's likely because he is waiting for the President's budget so the Dean plan can have solid numbers to compare against.
The other part that drew my interest was (of course) Sen. Edwards' response to the question about Islam. I frankly didn't have a problem with it - it's discussed in more detail over at UNMEDIA and I invite anyone who is interested to visit to discuss.
video: New Hampshire Presidential Debate rtsp://cspanrm.fplive.net/cspan/idrive/c2k012600_demdebate.rm
transcript: Judy and Howard on Primetime with Diane Sawyer http://blog.deanforamerica.com/archives/003332.html
See post below for video. Click to read the whole thing, but I was most interested in this exchange on the subject of temper (emphasis mine):
It's frustrating to read, but I think it comes across better in the actual video. It's good that Sawyer is rehashing all the idiotic accusations of temper - including dredging up his St. George's statement - because now it's been dealt with, and shown to be without merit.
Diane Sawyer: And, some of the political analysts have said that the real problem is that it tapped into another concern, it seemed to re-enforce the concern that had been brought up before about your pressure gauge. And, how you control it. And, specifically the whole issue of temper. So, can I ask you Mrs. Dean, does your husband have a temper?
Judy Dean: Not much. I mean, you know … we've been married for 23 years, and uh, he … he … he is very easy to get along with…
Diane Sawyer: Ever seen … temper, how often does he lose his temper around you?
Judy Dean: I can't remember the last time. He just doesn't get that angry. I mean, he doesn't. You know, he just … he's very kind, very considerate, and uh … it just doesn't happen.
Diane Sawyer: A couple of things on the campaign trail I want to let you address here. Uh, we saw the instance where a Republican, admittedly combative Republican, in one of the town halls asked you a question, and you had a splash (?) point, you reacted …
Howard Dean: You know, I'm not going to say what I, what the guy did, or what he didn't do, or anything like that. My attitude is this basically, uh, I believe people ought to respect each other. And, I want to hold everybody to those standards. I want to hold myself to those standards. And, I want to hold everybody else to those standards. People, you know, this anger stuff, which is, essentially (?) began last March when other campaigns started to spin it, because of the passion of the campaign, I don't really react to that, because I'm not particularly an angry person. And … but I do stand up for people's rights. There was … there was an incident where uh, I think it was an ABC camera person …
Diane Sawyer: Right.
Howard Dean: Uh, was interviewing me, and another cameraman from another station hit her on the head on purpose with his camera, because he wanted to get a better shot. I stopped the interview. I told him to behave himself, uh, and … and to knock it off, and that wasn't the way people treat each other.
Diane Sawyer: And, was there an event where you showed up and then walked out because …
Howard Dean: That's not true. Uh, what happened there, that was a Martin Luther King event. And, uh, one thing we find is that often events like this, including this tape, sort of has a life of its own, when they get in the … in the Beltway (Inaudible) What happened in that event was that 200 people, media people jumped after me. They knocked down one of the congressmen from Iowa, knocked down an aide. Uh, I was supposed to go to a Martin Luther King ceremony. When they got there, the press was so unruly, that I realized I was going to disrupt the ceremony, so we just left. Uh, you know, I do have standards for respect, and I think it's important for people to respect each other, regardless of whether they're media, or whether they're politicians, or whether they're ordinary people, and I do expect people to show respect for others.
Diane Sawyer: But it isn't the first incident in which temper has come into question, and recently a story has been circulating now about the mid-'90s, at a hockey game for your son, which ended in the police being called, and that you were one of the parents there, and then … then you apologized. You called and apologized.
Howard Dean: That (?) didn't (?) happen (?) either (?) A lot of this stuff is urban legend. Uh, there was a hockey game where there was an incident on the ice. Uh, the team was suspended because the coaches threw sticks out on the ice. Don't forget, wherever I traveled as governor, I had a police esc … a police escort. Uh, so I think that if there had been a problem, that I would have been taken out by my own police guys for my safety. A lot of this stuff is about urban legend. And, it happens because uh, other people have observed (?) uh, some of the things I do as anger. I will stand up for what I believe in, and I will stand up to protect weaker people, uh, but I don't often blow up. I think I did not yell at a staff member in 12 years when I was governor. That's just not what I do.
Diane Sawyer: So did you lose your temper at the hockey …
Howard Dean: I never, there certainly was no fighting, there was no … it was nothing of that sort. I don't … I don't remember exactly what this is talking about, but I've never … never been kicked out of a game, I never have uh, you know, been uh, escorted out by any police or anything like that. I had my own police to follow me around in case there were any problems with other people attacking me. There have never been any fights. So, I'm not sure exactly what the …
Diane Sawyer: You don't remember if you blew?
Howard Dean: I don't remember any, uh, blowing up, no.
Diane Sawyer: Because … I looked as far back as what (?), St. George boarding school …
Howard Dean: Uh-huh.
Diane Sawyer: And, I'm looking at something you wrote about yourself at St. George boarding school. And, you said, if you want to get to know me, you should be the curious type who can put up with a temper.
Howard Dean: I think if you have a temper when you're 16, that's not saying anything about (Inaudible) when you're 50.
Diane Sawyer: And, you wouldn't consider a person who then (?) has had a lifelong, uh, what expression of temper?
Howard Dean: Well, let's look at what you're saying. You're talking about a hockey game that may or may not have uh, happened. You're talking about a tape in which I was exuberant. And, what else are you talking about?
Diane Sawyer: (Sighs)
Howard Dean: I mean, you're making the case …
Diane Sawyer: Well, no let me ask you …
Howard Dean: And I'm saying, you know, have I ever blown up? Yes. Did I blow up once at a staff member in 12 years? Not ever. So, I mean, I understand your desire to make the case, as … as the all the other campaigns would like to, but the fact is, that it's what always happened. It's a small modicum of truth, and then it gets … grown (?)
It's frustrating to read, but I think it comes across better in the actual video. It's good that Sawyer is rehashing all the idiotic accusations of temper - including dredging up his St. George's statement - because now it's been dealt with, and shown to be without merit.
video: Judy and Howard on Primetime with Diane Sawyer http://www.deanforamerica.com/judyandhoward
The Diane Sawyer Interview
Low / Med / High : RealPlayer
Low / Med / High : WindowsMedia
Low / Med / High : QuickTime
Thursday, January 22, 2004
Debate open thread
The floor is yours.
Turning a negative into a positive http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1484529/20040122/aphex_twin.jhtml?headlines=true
By now everyone's had the chance to have some fun at our expense thanks to the Governor's rockin' post-caucus speech. But I think it's pretty cool that the grassroots have taken that moment and turned it into something fun and positive. MTVNews covers the Dean remix phenomena and provides links to some of the remixes as well as an actual video clip of the moment. Watch the clip and you can plainly see Dean isn't angry, especially when he laughs heartily at the end.
As Aziz suggested, I've mirrored the remixes on my web server, and you can grab them all here. Have fun with this; some of the mixes are great, especially the one called "dean2", which IMO should be played at the beginning of every Dean rally from here on out.
Enjoy!
And don't forget we've got a trifecta on television tonight. The debate begins at 8pm eastern on FAUX, then Drs Howard and Judy Dean will appear on ABC for a sit-down interview with Diane Sawyer at 10pm eastern, and finally, our candidate makes an appearance on Letterman tonight at10:30pm 11:30pm eastern. We have three opportunities to make our case to the American public tonight, and I'm hoping we take full advantage of all of them.
As Aziz suggested, I've mirrored the remixes on my web server, and you can grab them all here. Have fun with this; some of the mixes are great, especially the one called "dean2", which IMO should be played at the beginning of every Dean rally from here on out.
Enjoy!
And don't forget we've got a trifecta on television tonight. The debate begins at 8pm eastern on FAUX, then Drs Howard and Judy Dean will appear on ABC for a sit-down interview with Diane Sawyer at 10pm eastern, and finally, our candidate makes an appearance on Letterman tonight at
GOP Thieves in Congress http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2004/01/22/infiltration_of_files_seen_as_extensive/
The Boston Globe's shocking story exposes a GOP plan that dwarfs the significance of Watergate:
Josh Marshall is already all over this one. Dean needs to be on the case with this story. It's powerful ammunition. IT's exactly what the voters need to hear, and the debate is likely the only way to inject teh story into the media spotlight. I castigated Dean for not following through on the Plame affair and remain disappointed. I hope that he runs wit this new ball more efectively - and doing so will prove to NH voters that he is serious about exposing the President and the GOP for what they are.
Republican staff members of the US Senate Judiciary Commitee infiltrated opposition computer files for a year, monitoring secret strategy memos and periodically passing on copies to the media, Senate officials told The Globe.
From the spring of 2002 until at least April 2003, members of the GOP committee staff exploited a computer glitch that allowed them to access restricted Democratic communications without a password. Trolling through hundreds of memos, they were able to read talking points and accounts of private meetings discussing which judicial nominees Democrats would fight -- and with what tactics.
[...]
With the help of forensic computer experts from General Dynamics and the US Secret Service, his office has interviewed about 120 people to date and seized more than half a dozen computers -- including four Judiciary servers, one server from the office of Senate majority leader Bill Frist of Tennessee, and several desktop hard drives.
Josh Marshall is already all over this one. Dean needs to be on the case with this story. It's powerful ammunition. IT's exactly what the voters need to hear, and the debate is likely the only way to inject teh story into the media spotlight. I castigated Dean for not following through on the Plame affair and remain disappointed. I hope that he runs wit this new ball more efectively - and doing so will prove to NH voters that he is serious about exposing the President and the GOP for what they are.
Where Clinton's campaign stood in January 1992 http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/candidates/democrat/clinton/campaign.92.shtml
worth reading for much-needed perspective. Also note that Clinton lost both Iowa and New Hampshire!
Note that Howard and Judy are doing an interview with Diana Sawyer on Primetime tonight (ABC)...
Note that Howard and Judy are doing an interview with Diana Sawyer on Primetime tonight (ABC)...
What Dean needs to say tonight http://www.hughhewitt.com/index.htm#postid228
Hugh Hewitt imagines the perfect introductory speech to tonight's debate by Dean.
That's the right attitude - and note how Hewitt draws a circle around Dean that explictly includes the other candidates. The question is, does teh campaign read blogs like this anymore, or has their own attention to the net-roots been too dominated by their own shiny echo chamber?
"On Monday night I spent 15 seconds trying to fire up my volunteers who had a disappointing night --congratulations John and John, but overconfidence is a dangerous thing, as I've learned-- I spent 15 seconds pointing at signs and recognizing people from faraway states who'd driven thousands of miles in some cases to stand on corners in sub-zero temps, and I fire them up and try to show that I am not down for the count because they're not down for the count, and television, radio, Matt Drudge and Rush Limbaugh and your network, Brit, try to turn me into a deranged psycho. Fred Barnes called me cracked, for goodness sake. I've been a medical doctor treating crisis cases in emergency rooms for twenty years, and a governor making life and death decisions for ten years, and the American media, threatened by my message that big corporate interests are out of control--and there is no bigger corporate interest than Fox-- decides to marginalize me using a quarter minute of tape."
"Now this process of Karl Rove orchestrated, media-led destruction of the loyal opposition has been going on for months now, but it is going to end here in New Hampshire. The voters of New Hampshire have been around the block a few times, and they know what's going on, and crucially, they know what's at stake. If the media knocks me off, then it will be John Kerry's turn and we will hear endlessly about his protests of the Vietnam War and his quote "French tastes" close quotes, but we won't hear about John's genuine and moving heroism in the face of brutal fire. We'll hear about John Edwards being a plaintiff's attorney fueled by plaintiff's attorneys all over the country as though serving the severely injured is a bad thing, We'll hear about General Clark's anonymous enemies in the Pentagon and we'll overlook his leadership in halting genocide. All of this and more, because all of us threaten the money, Brit, we all threaten the money. This president has made it very lucrative to be Republican, Brit, and those of us who get wind in our sails come under fire, and its not fair."
That's the right attitude - and note how Hewitt draws a circle around Dean that explictly includes the other candidates. The question is, does teh campaign read blogs like this anymore, or has their own attention to the net-roots been too dominated by their own shiny echo chamber?
The Debate http://www.liberaloasis.com/archives/011804.htm#012204
Been awhile since I've posted -- the post-Iowa roller coaster and the ensuing increased pressure for our Mass for Dean GOTV efforts in nextdoor NH, coupled with all of life's other pressures, has been a tad wild.
I'd like to do an Iowa recap post, just to offer my perspective on what we saw on the ground there, what we experienced, especially at the caucus we attended in downtown Des Moines, and at the Monday rally. Oh and getting to meet Anna too! :-)
But right now, there are more important fish to fry. The debate tonight is critical, obviously. All manner of advice is flying around the Net and no doubt the staff at DFA are feeling a bit overwhelmed. But heeding this advice is really important, in my opinion. Per usual, Liberal Oasis offers some really great tips to all the big four candidates (Clark, Dean, Edward, and Kerry).
Here's LO's advice to Dean:
I'd like to do an Iowa recap post, just to offer my perspective on what we saw on the ground there, what we experienced, especially at the caucus we attended in downtown Des Moines, and at the Monday rally. Oh and getting to meet Anna too! :-)
But right now, there are more important fish to fry. The debate tonight is critical, obviously. All manner of advice is flying around the Net and no doubt the staff at DFA are feeling a bit overwhelmed. But heeding this advice is really important, in my opinion. Per usual, Liberal Oasis offers some really great tips to all the big four candidates (Clark, Dean, Edward, and Kerry).
Here's LO's advice to Dean:
Ahh, the speech.
Dean had the right idea with his post-caucus speech, showing confidence and determination.
But of course, it was not exactly executed right.
There were concerns that he wasn’t presidential and likeable enough, and he walked right into them. The resulting spin has been brutal.
What to do then?
First, he should take a page from Reagan.
In the first debate with Walter Mondale in 1984, Reagan’s performance was so shaky, doubts grew about his old age and his faculties.
His 26 point lead in the polls was cut in half. Mondale was back in it.
But in the next debate, when Reagan was asked about his age, he was ready. With perfect comedic timing, he said:
I want you to know that I will not make age an issue of this campaign.
I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent’s youth and inexperience.
Not only did the crowd roar in laughter, the joke reversed the doubts that he was losing it, because he put himself in command of the room.
(Mondale later said he pretty much knew it was over at that moment.)
A great joke about the “Iowa Yell” could do the same for Dean.
He once was the most likeable candidate, the one best connecting with the people.
Showing he can skillfully laugh at himself would put to rest notions that he’s lost it, and remind voters about his likeable traits.
Of course, the joke has to be great, and has to be delivered great.
A failed joke is painful to watch. That’s why jokes are risky.
But that’s also why they pay off so well when they work.
After that, Dean needs to simply be presidential.
He’s been low-key the last two days, but a low-key debate performance would be the worst thing he can do.
It would be akin to Al Gore’s post-sigh debate against Dubya. He would look weak and defeated.
Dean at his best has a novel charisma. It needs to shine tonight.
video: The Iowa Caucus speech - a reason for PRIDE rtsp://video.c-span.org/project/c04/c04011904_dean.rm
Remember something. For a month now the media has been full-bore against Dean, willingly receptive to smear stories fed to it by the RNC. But we were able to stand astride that onslaught, because we believed in what Dean actually said, as opposed to what was reported. We believed in what Dean actually stood for, as opposed to what was inferred by the pundits. We believed in Dean's actual record, as opposed to the hyperbolic spin from enemies across the political spectrum.
One loss in Iowa doesn't change any of that. What it did so was perhaps shake our confidence a bit, as it should. But in that moment of weakness, we probably let the media's continued onslaught penetrate past our defenses. But we have to remember, that the media coverage is as blatantly opposed to Dean as it ever was, and the rush to judgement about Dean's post-Iowa caucus rally speech has been the crown jewel of their efforts.
So watch the thing yourself. Dean starts to speak at 6 minutes in. And be armed with the truth again.
That's a video that the official blog should be putting front and center, instead of trying to wish it away. There should be PRIDE about this video, especially in light of Joe Trippi's own words:
It's all about US, remember. And that's the energy we have to carry through into New Hampshire.
One loss in Iowa doesn't change any of that. What it did so was perhaps shake our confidence a bit, as it should. But in that moment of weakness, we probably let the media's continued onslaught penetrate past our defenses. But we have to remember, that the media coverage is as blatantly opposed to Dean as it ever was, and the rush to judgement about Dean's post-Iowa caucus rally speech has been the crown jewel of their efforts.
So watch the thing yourself. Dean starts to speak at 6 minutes in. And be armed with the truth again.
Howard Dean Reaction to Iowa Caucus Results
Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean reacts to the results of the Iowa caucuses.
1/19/2004: DES MOINES, IA: 20 min.
That's a video that the official blog should be putting front and center, instead of trying to wish it away. There should be PRIDE about this video, especially in light of Joe Trippi's own words:
I’ve been around campaigns for a long time. On most campaigns, if you come in third in Iowa with 18% and you go to the after party, you’re lucky to find 4 people there. Most every one by the time it’s over has left to find another party and another campaign.
But on Monday night Howard Dean walked in to the ballroom in Des Moines and there were 3500 people there. And the energy was higher than most victory parties I’ve been to.
The Governor looked out at the room and saw 3500 people who had come from all across the country because they believed in changing their country and he wanted them to know how proud he was of them and their efforts. And he wanted them to know that we’re going on no matter what.
He wasn’t thinking about the cameras. It was the people right in front of him who had done so much because they believe in a better America that he was speaking to.
It's all about US, remember. And that's the energy we have to carry through into New Hampshire.
open thread: what we want at tonight's debate
The debate tonight is where Dean will win, or lose, New Hampshire. It's a fair assessment to say that the campaign went off-message in Iowa - instead of issues, leadership, and optimism, it was about crappy ads, aggressive volunteers, inexperienced caucusgoers, and negative campaigning.
What Dean needs to do tonight is present his State of the Campaign - to take personal charge, to show to all the soft-support out there (which in New Hampsire, has switched to Kerry) that there is more to Dean than the Yeeeeagh! which is so easily caricatured.
The campaign publicly says it intends to change, but I don't think making Dean into a boring wonk is the right answer. What do YOU want? Its clear that the campaign needs to listen to us more - but first we need to actually say what we think.
What Dean needs to do tonight is present his State of the Campaign - to take personal charge, to show to all the soft-support out there (which in New Hampsire, has switched to Kerry) that there is more to Dean than the Yeeeeagh! which is so easily caricatured.
The campaign publicly says it intends to change, but I don't think making Dean into a boring wonk is the right answer. What do YOU want? Its clear that the campaign needs to listen to us more - but first we need to actually say what we think.
Humility is a Virtue http://www.boston.com/news/politics/president/articles/2004/01/22/for_dean_humility_can_refuel_campaign/
This is a great column in today's Boston Globe - whether you believe that Dean's speech was over the top, or not (or the media spin of Dean as "angry") - it's clear that voters would like some reassurance about the man's temperament. Dean would be well served in his remarks tonight to not only talk about his plans for the country, but to make it clear that he is aware enough, and confident enough to let NH voters (and the rest of the country) that he understands these concerns, put his past remarks in proper context (but not "excuse" them), and finally maybe even give the concession speech he should have given in Iowa. A brief explanation and a few graceful remarks congratulating Sen. Kerry and Sen. Edwards on their victory, for keeping the discussion positive, and that "all the Democrats up here on stage care greatly for the future of this country - we are joined in the pursuit of a real alternative to the current administration, etc." would demonstrate the self-awareness and humility that can buoy Dean in the last few days before the vote.
I also happen to think that it cannot hurt Dean to note that a lot of the discussion about his candidacy has shifted from substance to style, and to re-emphasize (as he's been doing effectively the last couple of days) that he's in this race to balance the federal budget, provide health care, and reinitiate a multilateral foreign policy. The debate shouldn't be about how many internet supporters there are, or how much money is raised, or how big (or charged up) a rally is - this debate should be about our kids and the debt their being saddled with, the air and water they'll inherit, and their relative safety in the world. It's high time to get back to the substance of this campaign and continue working for Dean's vision.
Let me be clear - this is not encouraging Dean or any of his supporters to concede anything, nor is it a somber occasion. I think Dean should smile tonight, relax, the pressure is off. He should just be himself, acknowledge the concerns about his temperament, focus on moving the campaign and his platform forward. If these things come together, I believe Dean can still capture New Hampshire and shock the establishment.
How about others? What's your take on tonight's debate and how it might be handled?
I also happen to think that it cannot hurt Dean to note that a lot of the discussion about his candidacy has shifted from substance to style, and to re-emphasize (as he's been doing effectively the last couple of days) that he's in this race to balance the federal budget, provide health care, and reinitiate a multilateral foreign policy. The debate shouldn't be about how many internet supporters there are, or how much money is raised, or how big (or charged up) a rally is - this debate should be about our kids and the debt their being saddled with, the air and water they'll inherit, and their relative safety in the world. It's high time to get back to the substance of this campaign and continue working for Dean's vision.
Let me be clear - this is not encouraging Dean or any of his supporters to concede anything, nor is it a somber occasion. I think Dean should smile tonight, relax, the pressure is off. He should just be himself, acknowledge the concerns about his temperament, focus on moving the campaign and his platform forward. If these things come together, I believe Dean can still capture New Hampshire and shock the establishment.
How about others? What's your take on tonight's debate and how it might be handled?
Daily Review
Dean Supporters, Don't Give Up
Letters
Can He Come Back?
Dean's Campaign Alters Approach
Democrats Woo New Hampshire as Race Heats Up
Dems gear up in New Hampshire
Letters
Can He Come Back?
Dean's Campaign Alters Approach
Democrats Woo New Hampshire as Race Heats Up
Dems gear up in New Hampshire
Wednesday, January 21, 2004
Boston Herald: Kerry Takes Strong Lead http://news.bostonherald.com/national/national.bg?articleid=596
The Boston Herald is reporting that Sen. Kerry has lunged forward with a commanding ten point lead over Gov. Dean.
Sen. John F. Kerry has catapulted into a 10-point New Hampshire lead six days before the nation's first primary, bouncing out of Iowa and over longtime frontrunner Howard Dean, according to a new Boston Herald poll.
The Massachusetts senator leads Dean 31 percent to 21 percent, with a slipping Wesley K. Clark at 16 percent after skipping the Iowa caucuses.
DFA Conference Call From Tonight: Please Come To New Hampshire Now.
A conference call was held tonight to rally supporters to get to New Hampshire and answer questions about the direction the campaign is going in.
US Senator Patrick Leahy, DFA National Finance Chairman Terry Learman and Vermont Chair Dashiell Flynn hosted the call.
Eager supporters immediately clamored about what they think needs to change after the results in Iowa and asked what they could do to help in New Hampshire.
"Dean should put on a jacket again and look more presidential," said one concerned caller.
"Dean has to start taking credit for setting the stage and driving the debate for all these other bozos," said another. "We have to talk about why Bush and Rove are afraid of Dean!"
Many others wanted to advise Dean handlers to immediately get the Governor out on the Comedy circuit to take advantage of the buzz about his Iowa exit speech.
When DFA Finance Committee Chairman Terry Learman joined the call he said in his 56 years he had "never seen a better campaign office--life charged situation" than the one he is seeing from Manchester headquarters from where he called.
"But it takes a lot of fuel to run the engine," said Learman. "besides money--we need people to swarm to New Hampshire right now."
In the question and answer session, Learman responded that, since Iowa, "the internet alone has raised over $1 million. Fundraising has not dropped at all, and that number doesn't include the checks being mailed in."
Learman said that in one day this week $280,000 was raised.
"What's even more impressive is that we have more donors out there than ALL of the campaigns combined with an average of about $75 per donation," said Learman. "Howard Dean IS campaign finance reform."
When asked what specifically needed to change after Iowa, Learman said that "we may have gotten off message. Dean got caught up in a perfect political storm with a withering display of attacks--the likes that I've never seen before. We're coming out with new ads (in NH) and will emphasize our positive message."
Senator Leahy had called in from Washington, D.C. and asked callers to join him on a bus leaving from Burlington for New Hampshire, or simply to follow him and others to get out to New Hampshire and fight for Howard the same way he's been fighting for all Americans.
"We have 6 days before the New Hampshire primary," said Leahy. "Vermonters know Howard best and the people in New Hampshire need to hear from their neighbors and others across the country about what a great guy he is."
Crossposted at DeanTV.org
US Senator Patrick Leahy, DFA National Finance Chairman Terry Learman and Vermont Chair Dashiell Flynn hosted the call.
Eager supporters immediately clamored about what they think needs to change after the results in Iowa and asked what they could do to help in New Hampshire.
"Dean should put on a jacket again and look more presidential," said one concerned caller.
"Dean has to start taking credit for setting the stage and driving the debate for all these other bozos," said another. "We have to talk about why Bush and Rove are afraid of Dean!"
Many others wanted to advise Dean handlers to immediately get the Governor out on the Comedy circuit to take advantage of the buzz about his Iowa exit speech.
When DFA Finance Committee Chairman Terry Learman joined the call he said in his 56 years he had "never seen a better campaign office--life charged situation" than the one he is seeing from Manchester headquarters from where he called.
"But it takes a lot of fuel to run the engine," said Learman. "besides money--we need people to swarm to New Hampshire right now."
In the question and answer session, Learman responded that, since Iowa, "the internet alone has raised over $1 million. Fundraising has not dropped at all, and that number doesn't include the checks being mailed in."
Learman said that in one day this week $280,000 was raised.
"What's even more impressive is that we have more donors out there than ALL of the campaigns combined with an average of about $75 per donation," said Learman. "Howard Dean IS campaign finance reform."
When asked what specifically needed to change after Iowa, Learman said that "we may have gotten off message. Dean got caught up in a perfect political storm with a withering display of attacks--the likes that I've never seen before. We're coming out with new ads (in NH) and will emphasize our positive message."
Senator Leahy had called in from Washington, D.C. and asked callers to join him on a bus leaving from Burlington for New Hampshire, or simply to follow him and others to get out to New Hampshire and fight for Howard the same way he's been fighting for all Americans.
"We have 6 days before the New Hampshire primary," said Leahy. "Vermonters know Howard best and the people in New Hampshire need to hear from their neighbors and others across the country about what a great guy he is."
Crossposted at DeanTV.org
The "Positive Candidates"
Taking my country back: the New Hampshire experience
Since I first became aware of Howard Dean's candidacy, I knew he was the guy who could beat Bush in November. He's a passionate, sincere, experienced executive who tells the truth. In my mind, his message resonates.
That's why, on Friday, I'm hopping on a plane from Oakland to Boston, getting a ride up to New Hampshire, and volunteering for the Dean campaign until Primary Day. I'm taking a few days off from my job at the California League of Conservation Voters (as a phone canvasser and web designer, at this point) to put my money, and my time, and my effort, where my mouth is.
Though I have donated to Dean, and posted a link or two to this site and the campaign site from my own website [beware amusing Flash intro], and told my friends and family about Dean, I felt I needed to do more. This election year is a critical turning point--four more years of Bush means four more years of Orwellian lies and policies designed to benefit only the bottom line of his corporate cronies, with no regard for the health or economic prosperity of the vast majority of Americans. (The fact that so many people don't grasp that truth blows my mind.)
Last Thursday night, it hit me. If this election is so important to me, I'd better do as much as I can to help turn it in my direction. Sure, I'm already doing a lot, getting new people involved in an influential California environmental group every day, electing the best environmental leaders to Sacramento, keeping them accountable, and doing what we can to beat Bush in 2004. (See the Presidential Environmental Forum in L.A., where I got to shake Dr. Dean's hand and tell him I voted for him on MoveOn.org.) Suddenly, though, it didn't seem like enough. I realized that I need to make an immediate impact where I'm needed most. (I also want to see what a presidential campaign is like at the ground level.) It was too late to go to Iowa--tickets were too expensive, I had missed a lot of events, I hadn't taken time off work, etc. However, I found a cheap ticket to Boston, emailed my boss (who was very encouraging, of course), and on Friday my itinerary was set: Arrive Friday evening, January 23rd; leave Wednesday morning, January 28th, knowing who won New Hampshire.
I actually hope to walk precincts in the sub-freezing New England air. Having grown up in Wisconsin and field canvassed for a non-profit in Minneapolis in the dead of winter, I am both well-prepared and perversely nostalgic for that kind of brutal self-punishment. (If I end up on the phones, that's okay, too.)
If all goes well, I'll post daily updates from New Hampshire about my volunteer experience. Thanks to Aziz--my college hall-mate 10 years ago--for giving me the opportunity to make a guest appearance on this blog.
Go Dean! We will win in New Hampshire!
That's why, on Friday, I'm hopping on a plane from Oakland to Boston, getting a ride up to New Hampshire, and volunteering for the Dean campaign until Primary Day. I'm taking a few days off from my job at the California League of Conservation Voters (as a phone canvasser and web designer, at this point) to put my money, and my time, and my effort, where my mouth is.
Though I have donated to Dean, and posted a link or two to this site and the campaign site from my own website [beware amusing Flash intro], and told my friends and family about Dean, I felt I needed to do more. This election year is a critical turning point--four more years of Bush means four more years of Orwellian lies and policies designed to benefit only the bottom line of his corporate cronies, with no regard for the health or economic prosperity of the vast majority of Americans. (The fact that so many people don't grasp that truth blows my mind.)
Last Thursday night, it hit me. If this election is so important to me, I'd better do as much as I can to help turn it in my direction. Sure, I'm already doing a lot, getting new people involved in an influential California environmental group every day, electing the best environmental leaders to Sacramento, keeping them accountable, and doing what we can to beat Bush in 2004. (See the Presidential Environmental Forum in L.A., where I got to shake Dr. Dean's hand and tell him I voted for him on MoveOn.org.) Suddenly, though, it didn't seem like enough. I realized that I need to make an immediate impact where I'm needed most. (I also want to see what a presidential campaign is like at the ground level.) It was too late to go to Iowa--tickets were too expensive, I had missed a lot of events, I hadn't taken time off work, etc. However, I found a cheap ticket to Boston, emailed my boss (who was very encouraging, of course), and on Friday my itinerary was set: Arrive Friday evening, January 23rd; leave Wednesday morning, January 28th, knowing who won New Hampshire.
I actually hope to walk precincts in the sub-freezing New England air. Having grown up in Wisconsin and field canvassed for a non-profit in Minneapolis in the dead of winter, I am both well-prepared and perversely nostalgic for that kind of brutal self-punishment. (If I end up on the phones, that's okay, too.)
If all goes well, I'll post daily updates from New Hampshire about my volunteer experience. Thanks to Aziz--my college hall-mate 10 years ago--for giving me the opportunity to make a guest appearance on this blog.
Go Dean! We will win in New Hampshire!
Introducing the DeanWiki http://www.seedwiki.com/page.cfm?wikiid=4228&doc=HowardDean
You may have noticed a new link at the bottom footer of each individual post, that reads "Wiki" - this is a link to a new collaborative tool I have setup to act as a kind of mega-commenting system. Rather than indexing comments to a specific post, it's more free form. I encourage you to click the Wiki link and take a look around. And start adding your own content!
ONE DOWN, SIX TO GO
I'm going to keep repeating this mantra until it sinks in to the rattled Dean supporters out there. Think about this. Gephardt was supposed to win Iowa - he HAD to win Iowa - in order to stay in the race. It shouldn't matter to us whether Kerry & Edwards went 1-2. What matters was that we knocked Gephardt out of the race. On the ground, it really was the Gephardt grassroots versus the Dean grassroots, and we won. Our inexperienced, political newbies fought the "strong" Iowa contender, the somewhat-hometown favorite, and we won. We made it.
Looking ahead to New Hampshire, it's a must-win state for John Kerry. I don't know if he'll drop if he doesn't win, but he probably should because beyond NH the landscape changes and it's not Kerry-friendly. If we can knock out Kerry in NH, that is another victory, then it on to the south where Clark and Edwards will duke it out. If we can pick up a few 1st and 2nd place finishes on Feb 3, we'll head into seriously Dean-friendly territory on March 2.
Remember folks, we have the money to run the ads, the grassroots support to fill the volunteer spots, and the message that will beat George W Bush. Don't give up hope now. Have faith; we can still win this thing.
Looking ahead to New Hampshire, it's a must-win state for John Kerry. I don't know if he'll drop if he doesn't win, but he probably should because beyond NH the landscape changes and it's not Kerry-friendly. If we can knock out Kerry in NH, that is another victory, then it on to the south where Clark and Edwards will duke it out. If we can pick up a few 1st and 2nd place finishes on Feb 3, we'll head into seriously Dean-friendly territory on March 2.
Remember folks, we have the money to run the ads, the grassroots support to fill the volunteer spots, and the message that will beat George W Bush. Don't give up hope now. Have faith; we can still win this thing.
Vote! http://www.cnn.com/wolf
Question of the day:
Can Howard Dean revitalize his campaign after his loss in Iowa?
So far, no is winning. Go vote!
Can Howard Dean revitalize his campaign after his loss in Iowa?
So far, no is winning. Go vote!
Random pictures from the Val Air http://archives.annatopia.com/000526.html
here are some random pictures from the val air rally after the caucus.
The Real Subject
How are the fallen from this war different?
Here is one, the late Capt. Kimberly Hampton.
She was 27 when the helicopter she was piloting crashed in Iraq on January 2, weeks after Saddam Hussein’s capture.
Capt. Hampton was an honors graduate of Presbyterian College, a champion tennis player. Her family is proud of her. "Kimberly was doing what she wanted to do.... She believed in the cause; we still do," her father said.
But what was the cause?
While you consider that, multiply her sacrifice by 598. That’s the total of Allied deaths since the war began last March 21. Add 2,904 wounded, many grievously. Add an untold number of Iraqi civilians, American authorities no longer calculate the number.
What victory did Capt. Hampton’s death achieve?
We know, from Bush himself, that he targeted Saddam Hussein from the day he took office. Bush's own Treasury Secretary has testified to what really happened. The Army War College now calls the Iraq War a distraction from the real conflict..
Howard Dean says, get our allies in, get Arab troops in, win the peace.
Howard Dean says most of the September 11 hijackers were Saudis.
Howard Dean says, renew the search for Osama Bin Laden, become independent of Saudi oil, and stand up to the monarchy whose schools taught the terrorists.
George W. Bush has scheduled no elections in Iraq, and plans a June 30 transfer of power even with no democracy, and no assurance of real security.
Howard Dean said no to this policy when it took enormous courage to say no. He stands his ground today against politicians who bought the Administration’s lies and spin.
Do you have the courage to stand up for him now? Or did Capt. Hampton die in vain?
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About Nation-Building
Nation-Building was founded by Aziz Poonawalla in August 2002 under the name Dean Nation. Dean Nation was the very first weblog devoted to a presidential candidate, Howard Dean, and became the vanguard of the Dean netroot phenomenon, raising over $40,000 for the Dean campaign, pioneering the use of Meetup, and enjoying the attention of the campaign itself, with Joe Trippi a regular reader (and sometime commentor). Howard Dean himself even left a comment once. Dean Nation was a group weblog effort and counts among its alumni many of the progressive blogsphere's leading talent including Jerome Armstrong, Matthew Yglesias, and Ezra Klein. After the election in 2004, the blog refocused onto the theme of "purple politics", formally changing its name to Nation-Building in June 2006. The primary focus of the blog is on articulating purple-state policy at home and pragmatic liberal interventionism abroad.
