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Friday, December 12, 2003


ARG NH Poll has sobering news

posted by Aziz P. at Friday, December 12, 2003 permalink View blog reactions
It's been clear from all recent polls that Dean clobbers the other Democratic candidates in NH, but the latest ARG poll in NH shows that the general election is going to be a tough fight:

If next year's Presidential election were being held today, who would you be more likely to vote for - Republican George W. Bush or the nominee of the Democratic Party?

Bush 51% (50%)
Democrat 34% (36%)
Undecided 15% (14%)

What if the election for president were between George W. Bush, the Republican, and Howard Dean, the Democrat, for whom would you vote - Bush or Dean? (names rotated)

Bush 57%
Dean 30%
Undecided 13%

numbers in parenthesis are from September, and margin eof error is 4.6%. For the generic Democrat question, the partisan support is polarized, but the independent voters favor Bush by a slightly smaller margin of 47% to 32%. On the specific Bush-Dean matchup, the undeclared voters still support Bush by a wide margin, 63% to 11%. Proof that New Hampshire is hardly Democratic territory - and remember, this state went to Bush in 2000. Had Gore won NH, he'd be President.

Of course, the results of the poll will be spun by the ABD camp to argue that Dean is unelectable, but one has to wonder how their favored candidate would fare. From the Dean vs. other Dem matchups, we can likely infer that Bush vs Specific Non Dean candidate would be a much much worse margin.


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About Nation-Building

Nation-Building was founded by Aziz Poonawalla in August 2002 under the name Dean Nation. Dean Nation was the very first weblog devoted to a presidential candidate, Howard Dean, and became the vanguard of the Dean netroot phenomenon, raising over $40,000 for the Dean campaign, pioneering the use of Meetup, and enjoying the attention of the campaign itself, with Joe Trippi a regular reader (and sometime commentor). Howard Dean himself even left a comment once. Dean Nation was a group weblog effort and counts among its alumni many of the progressive blogsphere's leading talent including Jerome Armstrong, Matthew Yglesias, and Ezra Klein. After the election in 2004, the blog refocused onto the theme of "purple politics", formally changing its name to Nation-Building in June 2006. The primary focus of the blog is on articulating purple-state policy at home and pragmatic liberal interventionism abroad.