LA Times Today
The LA Times has a very good analysis of both the advantages and challenges Dean faces in his quest for the nomination. Excerpts:
The Note today mentions that Dean recently pointed out that he was chair (and vice chair) of both the Democratic Governors' Assocation and the National Governors' Association, "and those are not positions one gets without having (and leaving with) national political ties and experience." Consequently, his super-delegate support even now is probably greatly underestimated.
Also, as I wrote way back on May 29, however the super-delegates vote, Dean will be unstoppable if he does three things: 1) win Iowa, 2) win New Hampshire, and 3) have a national organization in place to follow up on the early victories. On the strength of Meetups and money, the national organization is well on its way, and he's tied for the lead in Iowa and New Hampshire. If it weren't illegal to bet on elections, I would take anyone's wager that Dean will be the nominee and the next president.
No previous insurgent has demonstrated as much support as early as Dean, who led the Democratic field in fund-raising over the past three months and is running strongly in the latest Iowa and New Hampshire polls.The main challenge is the fact that 37% of the convention delegates are "super-delegates"--elected officials and "distinguished party leaders" like Clinton. The conventional wisdom is that the super-delegates will see Dean as unelectable. I think that the CW is wrong. By January, the situation in Iraq will look even more dismal than it does now and the public opinion pendulum will more strongly against the war. Already polls show that the fraction opposing the war has risen from 23% in April to 42% now. Dean's stance on the war will widely be seen as the right one, and he will overcome the "unelectable" hurdle.
Joe Trippi, Dean's campaign manager, said his candidate's early emergence has defied the pattern of nomination contests. Usually, he said, the establishment candidate like Walter F. Mondale or George W. Bush dominates attention in the early stages of the race, and the insurgent struggles for notice and money until Iowa and New Hampshire.
....
"This is still a very steep hill," Trippi said. "But the process has totally been turned upside down. With all the focus being on Howard Dean, we are becoming the strongest insurgency in the history of the party."
The Note today mentions that Dean recently pointed out that he was chair (and vice chair) of both the Democratic Governors' Assocation and the National Governors' Association, "and those are not positions one gets without having (and leaving with) national political ties and experience." Consequently, his super-delegate support even now is probably greatly underestimated.
Also, as I wrote way back on May 29, however the super-delegates vote, Dean will be unstoppable if he does three things: 1) win Iowa, 2) win New Hampshire, and 3) have a national organization in place to follow up on the early victories. On the strength of Meetups and money, the national organization is well on its way, and he's tied for the lead in Iowa and New Hampshire. If it weren't illegal to bet on elections, I would take anyone's wager that Dean will be the nominee and the next president.
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